PL: Man City 58% favourites after half the season

Man City take on average three points more than Liverpool and win the league in 58% of the simulations.

Hot Teams
Bournemouth: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 7.4 more than expected
West Ham: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.8 more than expected
Everton: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Aston Villa: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Newcastle: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 6.2 less than expected
Brentford: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 5.8 less than expected
Man City: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Brighton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 less than expected
Arsenal: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
37	Man City	81.8	+53	< 1%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.88%	99.32%	58%	< 1%	< 1%	99.85%
42	Liverpool	78.8	+41	< 1%	99.96%	99.83%	99.33%	97.2%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	99.28%
40	Arsenal	76.2	+34	< 1%	99.82%	99.35%	97.8%	93%	13%	< 1%	2.4%	97.3%
39	Aston Villa	70.4	+23	< 1%	97.4%	93%	85%	65%	1.9%	1.2%	16%	81%
36	Tottenham	66.0	+17	< 1%	89%	77%	58%	27%	< 1%	5%	31%	53%
29	Newcastle	60.7	+21	< 1%	63%	43%	22%	7%	< 1%	11%	40%	20%
31	Man United	59.8	-0	< 1%	50%	31%	14%	4.4%	< 1%	13%	31%	13%
33	West Ham	59.6	+3	< 1%	50%	31%	14%	4.3%	< 1%	12%	29%	18%
27	Brighton	57.2	+8	< 1%	35%	20%	8%	2.3%	< 1%	10%	23%	17%
25	Chelsea	52.3	+3	< 1%	10%	4.2%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	33%	10%	1.1%
25	Wolves	48.0	-10	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	2.2%	< 1%
19	Brentford	47.9	-3	< 1%	2.8%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	8%	< 1%
22	Bournemouth	44.2	-19	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Crystal Palace	43.9	-10	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%
21	Fulham	43.7	-14	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	2.8%	< 1%
16	Everton	38.0	-9	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Forest	37.1	-22	27%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Luton	32.8	-32	64%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Burnley	30.3	-33	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Sheffield United	24.4	-52	97.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	86%	47%	10%		28%	10%
Liverpool	82%	38%	7%	< 1%	1.2%
Arsenal	28%	2.9%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	40%	2.1%	< 1%		< 1%
Tottenham	4.7%	< 1%			< 1%
Newcastle	7%	< 1%			< 1%
Man United	1.1%	< 1%			< 1%
West Ham	8%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brighton	14%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Chelsea	33%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Wolves	< 1%
Brentford	6%
Bournemouth	< 1%
Crystal Palace	1.4%
Fulham	10%	< 1%
Everton	< 1%
Forest	< 1%
Luton	< 1%
Burnley	< 1%
Sheffield United	< 1%

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	>99.99%	>99.99%	84%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	67%
League cup winners	100%	63%	59%
Sixth team	98.4%	95.6%	2.6%
Seventh team	86%	66%	2.9%
Eighth team	51%	11%	3.0%

Simulated points for winner: 82 - 87
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 37

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brighton	51%	23%	26%	Brentford
Crystal Palace	57%	22%	21%	Bournemouth
Luton	28%	23%	49%	Chelsea
Aston Villa	70%	17%	13%	Burnley
Wolves	50%	23%	27%	Everton
Man City	89%	7%	3.2%	Sheffield United
Crystal Palace	41%	24%	34%	Brentford
Forest	32%	24%	44%	Man United
Tottenham	68%	18%	14%	Bournemouth
Fulham	25%	23%	53%	Arsenal
Liverpool	58%	21%	21%	Newcastle
West Ham	44%	24%	32%	Brighton

Most likely combo of teams in CL

30%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
10%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
4.4%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
4.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.1%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
3.1%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

45%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
15%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
10%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
8%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United
6%	Everton, Luton, Sheffield United
2.0%	Bournemouth, Burnley, Sheffield United
2.0%	Burnley, Fulham, Sheffield United
1.9%	Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United
1.7%	Everton, Forest, Sheffield United
1.0%	Burnley, Forest, Luton

 

PL: Man City favourites at Christmas

 

Hot Teams
Bournemouth: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 7.9 more than expected
Everton: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 6.3 more than expected
Aston Villa: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
West Ham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Tottenham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
Forest: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.4 less than expected
Man City: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Brentford: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Newcastle: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Man United: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
At Christmas, Man City 49% favourites with on average 2.5 points more than Arsenal in the simulations. Liverpool follow 0.6 points behind Arsenal and then a gap of roughly six points down to Aston Villa.

Given the standings in the European competitions, Premier League has a 75% to get a fifth place in Champions League, affecting especially Aston Villa (31%), Tottenham (33%) and Newcastle (21%), who are favourites on finishing fifth.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
34	Man City	80.9	+52	< 1%	>99.99%	99.95%	99.70%	98.4%	49%	< 1%	< 1%	99.51%
40	Arsenal	78.4	+38	< 1%	99.94%	99.72%	98.7%	95%	25%	< 1%	1.8%	98.0%
39	Liverpool	77.8	+40	< 1%	99.94%	99.70%	98.6%	94%	22%	< 1%	1.7%	98.1%
39	Aston Villa	71.5	+24	< 1%	98.4%	95.3%	87%	66%	3.3%	1.1%	16%	82%
36	Tottenham	67.1	+19	< 1%	93%	83%	63%	30%	< 1%	4.5%	34%	55%
29	Newcastle	63.0	+25	< 1%	80%	62%	33%	12%	< 1%	9%	46%	28%
28	Man United	58.4	-1	< 1%	44%	23%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	13%	29%	7%
30	West Ham	57.3	-0	< 1%	36%	17%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	12%	22%	11%
24	Brighton	55.9	+6	< 1%	30%	14%	5%	1.2%	< 1%	10%	20%	14%
22	Chelsea	51.2	+3	< 1%	9%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	33%	9%	< 1%
19	Brentford	49.8	+1	< 1%	7%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.3%	10%	< 1%
22	Wolves	45.8	-14	1.3%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	1.6%	< 1%
21	Fulham	45.0	-11	1.9%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	3.2%	< 1%
18	Crystal Palace	44.8	-10	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	< 1%
19	Bournemouth	42.7	-22	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Everton	38.6	-8	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Forest	34.7	-26	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Burnley	31.1	-32	70%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Luton	30.8	-33	71%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Sheffield United	26.0	-51	93%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	81%	37%	6%		24%	6%
Arsenal	37%	4.7%	< 1%		1.7%	< 1%
Liverpool	79%	32%	5%	< 1%	1.0%
Aston Villa	35%	2.1%	< 1%		< 1%
Tottenham	5.0%	< 1%			< 1%
Newcastle	8%	< 1%			< 1%
Man United	1.1%	< 1%			< 1%
West Ham	8%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brighton	14%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Chelsea	33%	< 1%
Brentford	6%
Wolves	< 1%
Fulham	10%	< 1%
Crystal Palace	1.4%
Bournemouth	< 1%
Everton	< 1%
Forest	< 1%
Burnley	< 1%
Luton	< 1%
Sheffield United	< 1%

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	>99.99%	>99.99%	76%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	68%
League cup winners	100%	62%	58%
Sixth team	97.8%	94%	2.2%
Seventh team	83%	62%	3.0%
Eighth team	47%	10%	3.3%

Simulated points for winner: 81 - 86
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 74
Simulated points for 17th team: 33 - 37

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brighton	51%	23%	26%	Brentford
Crystal Palace	57%	22%	21%	Bournemouth
Newcastle	71%	17%	12%	Forest
Sheffield United	48%	24%	29%	Luton
Bournemouth	43%	24%	33%	Fulham
Burnley	19%	21%	60%	Liverpool
Man United	46%	24%	31%	Aston Villa
Chelsea	56%	22%	22%	Crystal Palace
Brentford	59%	21%	20%	Wolves
Everton	15%	19%	66%	Man City
Brighton	47%	24%	29%	Tottenham
Arsenal	68%	18%	14%	West Ham

Most likely combo of teams in CL

30%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
13%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
12%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
4.6%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
4.4%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
4.4%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.0%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
3.0%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham
3.0%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

40%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
17%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United
16%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
5%	Everton, Luton, Sheffield United
4.7%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
3.6%	Burnley, Forest, Luton
1.9%	Bournemouth, Burnley, Sheffield United
1.9%	Everton, Forest, Sheffield United
1.8%	Bournemouth, Luton, Sheffield United
1.1%	Burnley, Everton, Luton

 

PL: Aston Villa hottest team in the league

Aston Villa now have 13 points in the last five matches, 6.5 points more than in the average simulation.

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 6.5 more than expected
Everton: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.7 more than expected
Bournemouth: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 5.7 more than expected
Fulham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
West Ham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Man City: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Forest: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Brentford: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Brighton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
34	Man City	80.9	+52	< 1%	99.99%	99.94%	99.58%	98.0%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	99.38%
38	Liverpool	78.5	+40	< 1%	99.93%	99.66%	98.4%	94%	25%	< 1%	1.8%	98.0%
39	Arsenal	78.4	+37	< 1%	99.92%	99.60%	98.2%	94%	24%	< 1%	2.4%	97.3%
38	Aston Villa	73.0	+25	< 1%	98.9%	96.2%	89%	71%	4.9%	< 1%	14%	84%
33	Tottenham	66.2	+19	< 1%	89%	76%	50%	21%	< 1%	7%	40%	43%
29	Newcastle	65.0	+27	< 1%	86%	71%	44%	17%	< 1%	9%	43%	37%
28	Man United	59.6	+1	< 1%	50%	27%	11%	3.1%	< 1%	14%	32%	9%
23	Brighton	56.2	+6	< 1%	30%	14%	5.0%	1.1%	< 1%	11%	20%	14%
27	West Ham	55.8	-2	< 1%	25%	11%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	16%	9%
22	Chelsea	52.5	+4	< 1%	12%	4.2%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	11%	< 1%
19	Brentford	49.8	+1	< 1%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.3%	10%	< 1%
21	Fulham	46.9	-8	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	3.8%	< 1%
17	Crystal Palace	45.2	-10	1.5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	2.1%	< 1%
19	Wolves	44.2	-15	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%
16	Bournemouth	40.8	-23	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Everton	39.3	-8	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Forest	36.4	-24	24%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	Burnley	28.9	-35	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Luton	28.7	-35	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	Sheffield United	25.5	-53	93%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	79%	35%	6%		22%	6%
Liverpool	73%	28%	4.6%	< 1%	1.2%
Arsenal	36%	4.5%	< 1%		1.6%	< 1%
Aston Villa	36%	2.6%	< 1%		< 1%
Tottenham	4.8%	< 1%			< 1%
Newcastle	24%	1.4%	< 1%		< 1%
Man United	1.1%	< 1%			< 1%
Brighton	14%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	16%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brentford	6%	< 1%			< 1%
Fulham	8%	< 1%
Crystal Palace	1.4%
Wolves	< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%
Everton	8%	< 1%
Forest	< 1%
Burnley	< 1%
Luton	< 1%
Sheffield United	< 1%

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	>99.99%	>99.99%	76%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	68%
League cup winners	100%	64%	53%
Sixth team	97.8%	94%	2.0%
Seventh team	84%	61%	2.7%
Eighth team	50%	10%	3.3%

Simulated points for winner: 82 - 87
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 74
Simulated points for 17th team: 33 - 37

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brighton	51%	23%	26%	Brentford
Crystal Palace	57%	22%	21%	Bournemouth
Crystal Palace	40%	24%	36%	Brighton
Aston Villa	77%	14%	9%	Sheffield United
West Ham	44%	24%	32%	Man United
Luton	21%	21%	58%	Newcastle
Forest	50%	23%	27%	Bournemouth
Tottenham	63%	20%	17%	Everton
Fulham	56%	22%	22%	Burnley
Liverpool	50%	23%	27%	Arsenal
Wolves	40%	24%	36%	Chelsea

Most likely combo of teams in CL

23%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
20%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
13%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
4.5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.9%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
3.5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
2.9%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
2.4%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

56%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
10%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United
9%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
3.7%	Everton, Luton, Sheffield United
3.4%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
3.3%	Bournemouth, Burnley, Sheffield United
3.1%	Burnley, Forest, Luton
3.1%	Bournemouth, Luton, Sheffield United
1.2%	Burnley, Everton, Luton

EL/ECL: Knockout Stage Probabilities

Liverpool, Leverkusen, Brighton and West Ham favourites in EL, while Aston Villa, Fiorentina, and Lille favourites in Conference League.

Europa League

		Chance in Group				Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
E	Liverpool	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	84%	66%	52%	30%
H	Leverkusen	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	72%	46%	27%	14%
B	Brighton	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	67%	39%	21%	10%
A	West Ham	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	61%	31%	15%	7%
	Milan					100%	70%	39%	22%	12%	6%
D	Atalanta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	61%	29%	13%	6%
F	Villarreal	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	53%	23%	9%	3.9%
G	Roma	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	62%	30%	15%	7%	3.1%
	Benfica					100%	62%	30%	14%	6%	3.0%
	Lens					100%	58%	27%	13%	6%	2.6%
D	Sporting	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	56%	25%	12%	4.9%	2.3%
	Feyenoord					100%	58%	26%	12%	4.8%	2.2%
G	Slavia Praha	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	45%	16%	4.8%	2.1%
A	Freiburg	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	54%	24%	10%	4.0%	1.8%
B	Marseille	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	55%	23%	10%	3.8%	1.7%
F	Rennes	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	51%	20%	8%	2.8%	1.2%
	Galatasaray					100%	48%	17%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
C	Rangers	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	35%	9%	1.9%	< 1%
	Braga					100%	47%	15%	5%	1.5%	< 1%
C	Sparta Praha	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	40%	11%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%
	Young Boys					100%	38%	10%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
	Shakhtar					100%	38%	10%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Toulouse	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	35%	9%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Karabakh Agdam	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	30%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Europa Conference League

		Chance in Group				Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
E	Aston Villa	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	84%	67%	52%	30%
F	Fiorentina	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	72%	46%	27%	13%
A	Lille	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	70%	43%	23%	11%
	Betis					100%	78%	48%	30%	17%	9%
D	Brugge	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	63%	31%	13%	6%
G	Frankfurt	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	67%	38%	21%	11%	5%
H	Fenerbahce	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	58%	27%	11%	5%
	St Gillis					100%	70%	35%	18%	8%	3.7%
	Ajax					100%	65%	30%	14%	6%	2.7%
B	Gent	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	60%	28%	13%	5%	2.5%
B	M Tel Aviv	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	47%	17%	5%	2.3%
G	PAOK	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	47%	17%	5%	2.2%
D	Bodoe Glimt	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	51%	21%	9%	3.1%	1.4%
C	Viktoria Plzen	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	39%	11%	2.5%	1.1%
	Sturm Graz					100%	54%	20%	7%	2.2%	< 1%
	Olympiakos					100%	54%	19%	7%	2.1%	< 1%
	Molde					100%	51%	16%	4.9%	1.3%	< 1%
	Maccabi Haifa					100%	48%	14%	4.3%	1.1%	< 1%
C	Dinamo Zagreb	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	39%	12%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Servette					100%	44%	12%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Razgrad	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	35%	9%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Legia	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	32%	8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Ferencvaros	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	29%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Slovan Bratislava	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	22%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	76%	19.53	14.13	24.63
ITA	58%	18.94	14.14	27
GER	46%	18.45	13.93	25.36
ESP	10%	16.78	12.69	22.31
FRA	8%	16.08	11.75	25.25
BEL	< 1%	14.9	12	21.2
CZE	< 1%	14.51	12.25	23.5
TUR	< 1%	12.78	10.75	19.5
NED	< 1%	11.09	8.6	18.8
POR	< 1%	10.62	7.83	18.83