Below is the predicted knockout tree as it stands now.
Group E is wide open. Belgium and Romania have advantage of better goal difference and a point is therefore enough for them. Romania is likely through if Belgium win. Likewise, Belgium is likely through if Slovakia winl they just need to stay better than Hungary's goal difference of 2-5. Slovakia is through if they take a point (or three) or Ukraine win and Slovakia lose with less than three goals. If they lose with more it depends on results in Group F and you can see the probabilities below. Ukraine are through if they 1) win or 2) draw and Slovakia and Romania do not draw, or 3) They lose with 1-2 or 2-3 while Romania beat Slovakia.
In Group F we have a decider between Turkey and Czechia. Czechia need to win while a draw is sufficient for Turkey. Georgia can also advance but need to win against a rotating Portugal.
Hungary needs that the third in group E or group F end up with worse result, i.e., 3 points and 2-5 in goal difference. That means that they need the conditions in one group to be fulfilled
Group E, both of the following occur
- Slovakia lose with three goals or Romania lose with four goals
- Ukraine lose or Belgium lose with four goals.
Group F
- Georgia do not beat Portugal and
- Czechia do not beat Turkey or
- Czechia beat Turkey with 3 goals or more
| Group E |
|
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| Probabilities |
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Romania | 2 | +1 | 3 | 19% | 21% | 39% | 21% | 81% |
| Belgium | 2 | +1 | 3 | 14% | 10% | 43% | 33% | 85% |
| Slovakia | 2 | 0 | 3 | 27% | 33% | 10% | 31% | 73% |
| Ukraine | 2 | -2 | 3 | 40% | 36% | 9% | 16% | 55% |
Romania
| Slovakia - Romania |
| Home | Draw | Away |
| 53% | 100% | 100% | Bel - Ukr |
| 99.2% | 100% | 100% | 99.69% | Home |
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| < 1% | 100% | 100% | 60% | Draw |
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| < 1% | 100% | 100% | 60% | Away |
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Belgium
| Belgium - Ukraine |
| Home | Draw | Away |
| 100% | 100% | 40% | Slo - Rom |
| 100% | 100% | 99.4% | 99.85% | Home |
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| 100% | 100% | < 1% | 76% | Draw |
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| 100% | 100% | < 1% | 76% | Away |
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Slovakia
| Slovakia - Romania |
| Home | Draw | -1 | -2 | 0-3 | 1-4 | -4 |
| 100% | 100% | 24% | 24% | 19% | 25% | 14% | Bel - Ukr |
| 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 65% | Home |
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| 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 65% | Draw |
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| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 80% | 100% | 57% | 98.7% | Away |
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Ukraine
| Belgium - Ukraine |
| +4 | +3 | +2 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 3-2 | Draw | Away |
| 19% | 19% | 20% | 28% | 36% | 35% | 76% | 100% | Slo - Rom |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 47% | Home |
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| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 24% | Draw |
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| 53% | 54% | 56% | 80% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 85% | Away |
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Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
7.53; Belgium have 8.5% if they draw (or win) against Ukraine; otherwise 2.9%
6.67; Belgium have 9.4% if they win against Ukraine; otherwise 4.5%
4.27; Ukraine have 1.9% if they draw (or win) against Belgium; otherwise 0.37%
3.32; Ukraine have 2.5% if they win against Belgium; otherwise 0.67%
| Group F |
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| Probabilities |
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Portugal | 2 | +4 | 6 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% |
| Turkey | 2 | -1 | 3 | 4.3% | 37% | 59% | < 1% | 89% |
| Czechia | 2 | -1 | 1 | 15% | 44% | 40% | < 1% | 41% |
| Georgia | 2 | -2 | 1 | 80% | 19% | < 1% | < 1% | 11% |
Turkey
| Turkey - Czechia |
| Home | Draw | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4 |
| 100% | 100% | 90% | 89% | 9% | 4% | Geo - Por |
| 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 59% | Home |
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| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 10% | 5% | 92% | Draw |
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| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 10% | 5% | 93% | Away |
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Czechia
| Turkey - Czechia |
| Home | Draw | Away |
| < 1% | < 1% | 100% | Geo - Por |
| < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 41% | Home |
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| < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 41% | Draw |
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| < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 41% | Away |
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Georgia
| Georgia - Portugal |
| Home | Draw | Away |
| 100% | < 1% | < 1% | Tur - Cze |
| 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | Home |
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| 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 10% | Draw |
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| 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | Away |
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gdgdgd
| Last 16 |
| Quarter-finals |
| Semi-finals |
| Final |
| Champions |
Spain (100%) |
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| Spain (78%) Ukraine (6%) |
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Turkey (30%) Ukraine (21%) Slovakia (20%) Romania (13%) |
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| Spain (44%) Germany (40%) Denmark (10%) |
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Germany (100%) |
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| Germany (72%) Denmark (28%) |
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Denmark (100%) |
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| France (30%) Spain (22%) Germany (20%) Portugal (17%) |
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Portugal (100%) |
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| Portugal (73%) Hungary (20%) |
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Hungary (65%) Slovenia (35%) |
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| France (49%) Portugal (33%) Belgium (9%) |
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France (100%) |
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| France (76%) Belgium (17%) |
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Belgium (43%) Romania (39%) Slovakia (10%) |
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| France (20%) Spain (13%) Germany (12%) Portugal (10%) England (10%) |
Belgium (33%) Slovakia (31%) Romania (21%) Ukraine (16%) |
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| Slovenia (27%) Netherlands (25%) Belgium (23%) Slovakia (10%) |
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Slovenia (65%) Netherlands (35%) |
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| Austria (32%) Netherlands (17%) Belgium (16%) Slovenia (11%) |
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Austria (100%) |
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| Austria (62%) Turkey (21%) Czechia (16%) |
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Turkey (59%) Czechia (40%) |
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| England (22%) Netherlands (21%) Italy (19%) Austria (13%) Belgium (10%) |
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England (100%) |
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| England (59%) Netherlands (32%) |
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Netherlands (65%) Slovakia (13%) |
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| England (35%) Italy (32%) Netherlands (19%) |
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Switzerland (100%) |
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| Italy (67%) Switzerland (33%) |
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Italy (100%) |
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Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
5.22; Czechia have 0.99% if they win against Turkey; otherwise 0%
2.5; Czechia have 0.62% if they draw (or win) against Turkey; otherwise 0%
1.62; Czechia have 0.53% if Turkey and Czechia do not draw ; otherwise 0%
1.32; Turkey have 0.86% if they draw (or win) against Czechia; otherwise 0.23%
What is needed to qualify as 3rd team?
| Pts | GD | Probability | Last 16 | Chance |
| 3 | 2-5 | 17% | 11% | 66% |
| 3 | 5-9 | < 1% | < 1% | 22% |
| 3 | 4-8 | < 1% | < 1% | 26% |
| 3 | 3-7 | < 1% | < 1% | 31% |
| 3 | 2-6 | < 1% | < 1% | 55% |
| 3 | 5-10 | < 1% | < 1% | 18% |
| 3 | 4-9 | < 1% | < 1% | 21% |
| 3 | 3-8 | < 1% | < 1% | 28% |
| 3 | 2-7 | < 1% | < 1% | 54% |
| 3 | 4-10 | < 1% | < 1% | 19% |
| 3 | 3-9 | < 1% | < 1% | 29% |
| 3 | 2-8 | < 1% | < 1% | 53% |
| 3 | 3-10 | < 1% | < 1% | 31% |
| 3 | 2-9 | < 1% | < 1% | 54% |
| 3 | 2-10 | < 1% | < 1% | 53% |
| Group C |
| point | 3 |
| GD | 2-10 | 2-9 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 3-9 | 4-10 | 2-7 | 3-8 | 4-9 | 5-10 | 2-6 | 3-7 | 4-8 | 5-9 | 2-5 |
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| 3rd | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| England | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Slovenia | 3rd | 50% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 50% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Denmark | 3rd | 50% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 50% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Serbia | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Group D |
| point | 3 |
| GD | 2-10 | 2-9 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 3-9 | 4-10 | 2-7 | 3-8 | 4-9 | 5-10 | 2-6 | 3-7 | 4-8 | 5-9 | 2-5 |
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| 3rd | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Austria | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| France | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Netherlands | 3rd | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Poland | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Group E |
| point | 3 |
| GD | 2-10 | 2-9 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 3-9 | 4-10 | 2-7 | 3-8 | 4-9 | 5-10 | 2-6 | 3-7 | 4-8 | 5-9 | 2-5 |
|
| 3rd | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 94% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% |
| Romania | 3rd | 21% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 21% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Belgium | 3rd | 10% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 10% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Slovakia | 3rd | 33% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 33% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Ukraine | 3rd | 36% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 30% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% |
| Group A |
| point | 3 |
| GD | 2-10 | 2-9 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 3-9 | 4-10 | 2-7 | 3-8 | 4-9 | 5-10 | 2-6 | 3-7 | 4-8 | 5-9 | 2-5 |
|
| 3rd | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 66% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 66% |
| Germany | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Switzerland | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Hungary | 3rd | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 66% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 66% |
| Scotland | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Group F |
| point | 3 |
| GD | 2-10 | 2-9 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 3-9 | 4-10 | 2-7 | 3-8 | 4-9 | 5-10 | 2-6 | 3-7 | 4-8 | 5-9 | 2-5 |
|
| 3rd | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 40% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Portugal | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Turkey | 3rd | 37% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 30% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Czechia | 3rd | 44% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Georgia | 3rd | 19% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 10% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
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