PL: Man United travel to Villa Park

On Saturday Leicester host Bournemouth in an a crucial match in the bottom. On Sunday United travel to Villa Park while Spurs travel down to Brighton for important matches in the Europa race (detailed below).

Hot Teams
Chelsea: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 more than expected
Fulham: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Forest: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Arsenal: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 more than expected
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Man United: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Leicester: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
14	Man City	87.8	+61	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.92%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
14	Arsenal	79.5	+43	< 1%	99.90%	99.72%	99.18%	97.5%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	98.9%
15	Liverpool	74.1	+35	< 1%	99.08%	97.9%	95.2%	89%	5%	< 1%	4.6%	94%
13	Chelsea	64.8	+20	< 1%	87%	78%	65%	45%	< 1%	4.9%	27%	60%
11	Newcastle	61.0	+10	< 1%	71%	58%	41%	23%	< 1%	11%	29%	37%
10	Tottenham	59.5	+15	< 1%	65%	51%	35%	18%	< 1%	11%	25%	39%
13	Aston Villa	58.9	+5	< 1%	60%	45%	30%	15%	< 1%	13%	27%	27%
7	Man United	54.2	+1	< 1%	33%	22%	12%	4.8%	< 1%	13%	18%	18%
9	Brighton	52.0	-1	1.2%	24%	14%	7%	2.8%	< 1%	11%	14%	6%
11	Fulham	51.2	-5	1.5%	19%	11%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	8%	12%	4.7%
5	West Ham	48.9	-5	3.3%	12%	7%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	9%	2.5%
7	Brentford	48.7	-6	3.6%	12%	7%	3.1%	1.0%	< 1%	8%	8%	2.6%
8	Bournemouth	46.7	-11	6%	7%	3.6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	4.0%	5.0%	1.3%
3	Crystal Palace	45.9	-7	7%	6%	3.1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	5.0%	7%	1.1%
9	Forest	43.5	-16	13%	2.8%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	5.0%	< 1%
4	Everton	41.4	-20	21%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	1.4%	< 1%
1	Wolves	38.1	-23	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	Leicester	37.2	-22	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%
4	Ipswich	31.3	-35	78%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
1	Southampton	29.2	-38	86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	93%	60%	20%	2.3%	33%	7%	2.3%
Arsenal	50%	11%	1.2%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	28%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	32%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	9%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Tottenham	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	1.3%	< 1%			< 1%
West Ham	1.7%	< 1%			< 1%
Brentford	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%
Crystal Palace	4.5%	< 1%
Forest	3.3%	< 1%			< 1%
Everton	< 1%
Wolves	< 1%
Leicester	2.0%	< 1%
Ipswich	< 1%
Southampton	1.5%	< 1%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Aston Villa vs Man United (2.5%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Aston Villa	60%	51%	44%
Man United	30%	35%	43%
Brighton vs Tottenham (2.3%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Tottenham	58%	63%	71%
Brighton	26%	18%	15%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Leicester vs Bournemouth (2.4%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Leicester	65%	55%	50%
Bournemouth	92%	94%	97.0%

 

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	76%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	68%
League cup winners	100%	84%	77%
Sixth team	98.8%	93%	3.1%
Seventh team	89%	59%	2.8%
Eighth team	56%	9%	2.5%

Simulated points for winner: 85 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 39

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Crystal Palace	30%	24%	46%	Liverpool
Arsenal	84%	11%	6%	Southampton
West Ham	67%	18%	14%	Ipswich
Man City	82%	12%	6%	Fulham
Leicester	43%	24%	33%	Bournemouth
Brentford	55%	22%	23%	Wolves
Everton	36%	24%	40%	Newcastle
Aston Villa	49%	23%	28%	Man United
Chelsea	67%	18%	15%	Forest
Brighton	42%	24%	33%	Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams in CL

11%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
11%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
5%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
3.7%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
3.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
3.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.3%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.1%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

21%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
18%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
9%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
6%	Forest, Ipswich, Southampton
5%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
3.3%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves
3.0%	Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton
2.7%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
2.6%	Bournemouth, Ipswich, Southampton
2.1%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves

 

Europa League - Matchweek 1

Updated probabilities after one match. In most simulations, 14-15 points are required to finish within top-8 and 9-10 points are required to reach the knockout stage.

Europa League

Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
3	Tottenham	16	18-9	98.2%	90%	69%	90%	61%	39%	24%	12%
3	Lazio	16	11-7	96.8%	86%	61%	86%	55%	33%	19%	9%
3	Galatasaray	16	18-16	96.9%	86%	61%	82%	42%	19%	8%	4.2%
3	Slavia Praha	15	15-10	95.5%	82%	54%	81%	47%	25%	13%	7%
1	Bilbao	14	16-4	94%	80%	50%	80%	49%	28%	15%	8%
3	Lyon	14	11-6	93%	74%	44%	71%	36%	16%	7%	3.5%
1	Man United	14	16-13	91%	72%	40%	76%	48%	29%	17%	8%
1	Roma	14	15-12	91%	72%	40%	77%	50%	31%	19%	9%
1	Sociedad	14	13-11	90%	70%	39%	72%	42%	23%	12%	6%
0	Porto	13	13-11	85%	61%	30%	70%	46%	29%	18%	9%
3	Anderlecht	13	12-11	87%	62%	29%	58%	24%	9%	3.5%	1.7%
3	Fenerbahce	13	11-11	84%	59%	29%	60%	31%	15%	7%	3.3%
1	Frankfurt	12	19-11	86%	59%	26%	60%	29%	14%	6%	2.9%
3	Ajax	12	15-11	83%	55%	24%	49%	18%	6%	1.8%	< 1%
1	Nice	12	14-10	82%	56%	25%	57%	27%	12%	5%	2.7%
3	Braga	12	12-11	80%	51%	22%	51%	22%	9%	3.6%	1.8%
0	Olympiakos	12	13-14	77%	48%	19%	49%	22%	9%	3.7%	1.9%
1	Hoffenheim	12	13-14	78%	48%	19%	51%	25%	11%	4.8%	2.4%
3	Bodoe Glimt	12	10-14	75%	45%	17%	40%	14%	4.3%	1.2%	< 1%
3	Rangers	11	13-12	73%	42%	15%	38%	12%	3.8%	1.1%	< 1%
0	PAOK	11	12-11	73%	41%	13%	40%	15%	5%	1.7%	< 1%
3	Alkmaar	10	13-12	64%	33%	11%	31%	10%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
0	St Gillis	10	8-7	62%	33%	11%	36%	16%	6%	2.5%	1.2%
1	Twente	10	16-16	61%	31%	10%	32%	11%	3.8%	1.2%	< 1%
1	Viktoria Plzen	10	14-14	61%	31%	10%	32%	12%	4.1%	1.3%	< 1%
1	Midtjylland	10	9-10	58%	29%	9%	29%	10%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%
0	M Tel Aviv	10	13-16	57%	27%	8%	26%	8%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Karabakh Agdam	10	10-13	57%	27%	8%	26%	8%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Dynamo Kyiv	8	8-12	34%	11%	1.8%	12%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	Steaua	8	11-23	29%	9%	1.7%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Malmoe	7	13-14	31%	10%	2.1%	10%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Besiktas	7	8-15	25%	8%	1.4%	8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Ferencvaros	7	11-23	20%	6%	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Elfsborg	6	8-14	16%	4.1%	< 1%	4.9%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Razgrad	6	8-16	15%	3.7%	< 1%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	RFS	3	6-24	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	12-14	13	18-13	16	22-9
5%	10	16-15	13	16-14	16	14-7
25%	10	12-15	12	15-9	15	19-11
50%	9	13-11	12	11-9	15	14-10
75%	9	8-10	12	11-13	14	15-8
95%	8	14-15	11	11-10	14	13-11
99%	8	9-13	11	10-12	13	15-10

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	76%	17.97	7.79	26.29
ESP	38%	15.93	7.07	25.14
ITA	27%	15.34	7.38	24.19
POR	25%	15.01	6.4	27
GER	21%	15	6.69	24.44
BEL	5%	13.09	5.4	24.25
CYP	3.0%	12.32	5	24.17
CZE	2.6%	12.6	6.3	22.2
GRE	1.6%	11.78	4.63	21.63
TUR	< 1%	11.59	5.1	21.1
FRA	< 1%	10.76	4.36	19.57
UKR	< 1%	8.13	2.5	24.75
NED	< 1%	9.18	3.33	19.08
SWE	< 1%	9.48	4.5	19
NOR	< 1%	9.36	4.38	17.38
DEN	< 1%	8.63	3.5	16.25
AUT	< 1%	8.09	2.8	17.6
SCO	< 1%	6.23	2	14.1

 

PL: Villa and Forest with the best start of the season.

With their late equaliser City gained 8% in their chances to win the league.

Villa and Forest have the most positive starts, while Everton, Southampton, Palace, Wolves and Leicester all have started worse than expected.

Coming weekend Chelsea are hosting Brighton in a match for the CL race, while Tottenha, travel to Old Trafford in a crucial match for the EL slots.

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Forest: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Chelsea: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Arsenal: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Everton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.6 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Leicester: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
13	Man City	88.7	+61	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.95%	82%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
11	Arsenal	79.1	+43	< 1%	99.85%	99.63%	99.01%	97.3%	14%	< 1%	1.1%	98.7%
12	Liverpool	73.0	+34	< 1%	98.5%	96.9%	94%	87%	3.6%	1.1%	6%	92%
10	Chelsea	63.8	+19	< 1%	83%	74%	60%	41%	< 1%	6%	29%	56%
10	Newcastle	60.9	+9	< 1%	70%	57%	42%	24%	< 1%	11%	28%	37%
12	Aston Villa	59.7	+6	< 1%	63%	50%	35%	19%	< 1%	12%	26%	31%
7	Tottenham	57.7	+12	< 1%	54%	41%	27%	13%	< 1%	12%	22%	32%
7	Man United	55.9	+5	< 1%	43%	30%	18%	9%	< 1%	12%	20%	24%
9	Brighton	52.9	+1	< 1%	27%	18%	10%	4.2%	< 1%	11%	16%	8%
8	Fulham	49.4	-6	2.9%	14%	8%	3.9%	1.4%	< 1%	6%	9%	3.3%
6	Brentford	49.4	-6	3.4%	14%	8%	4.1%	1.5%	< 1%	8%	9%	3.4%
4	West Ham	49.0	-6	3.6%	13%	7%	3.5%	1.3%	< 1%	6%	9%	3.0%
3	Crystal Palace	47.1	-6	6%	8%	4.6%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	8%	1.8%
5	Bournemouth	45.7	-12	8%	6%	2.9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	4.1%	1.0%
9	Forest	45.0	-15	10%	4.4%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	6%	< 1%
1	Everton	40.0	-21	29%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%
1	Wolves	39.1	-23	33%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	Leicester	37.5	-22	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%
3	Ipswich	31.3	-36	78%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
1	Southampton	29.9	-37	83%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	95.1%	65%	23%	3.0%	35%	8%	3.0%
Arsenal	44%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	26%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	33%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	9%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Aston Villa	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	1.3%	< 1%			< 1%
Brentford	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	5%	< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	< 1%			< 1%
Forest	3.3%
Everton	< 1%
Wolves	< 1%
Leicester	2.1%	< 1%
Ipswich	< 1%
Southampton	1.2%	< 1%

Important matches for CL race
Chelsea vs Brighton (2.1%)	Home Win (58%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
Chelsea	61%	51%	45%
Brighton	6%	9%	14%

 

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs Tottenham (2.3%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Man United	50%	41%	36%
Tottenham	49%	55%	63%

 

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	95.1%	65%	23%	3.0%	35%	8%	3.0%
Arsenal	44%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	26%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	33%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	9%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Aston Villa	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	1.3%	< 1%			< 1%
Brentford	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	5%	< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	< 1%			< 1%
Forest	3.3%
Everton	< 1%
Wolves	< 1%
Leicester	2.1%	< 1%
Ipswich	< 1%
Southampton	1.2%	< 1%

 

 

Champions League - Gameday 1

 

Champions League

Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	Man City	17	12-3	99.21%	94%	72%	95.1%	76%	58%	43%	21%
3	Bayern	16	24-12	98.6%	90%	65%	87%	51%	26%	12%	6%
3	Real Madrid	16	21-12	98.4%	90%	65%	91%	64%	41%	25%	13%
3	Dortmund	16	19-10	98.7%	91%	65%	86%	46%	21%	9%	4.4%
3	Leverkusen	16	15-7	98.0%	88%	61%	87%	54%	30%	15%	8%
1	Inter	15	13-6	96.5%	82%	50%	84%	55%	33%	18%	9%
1	Arsenal	15	10-7	96.2%	80%	46%	83%	54%	32%	18%	9%
3	Liverpool	14	20-13	94%	76%	43%	77%	44%	23%	11%	5%
3	Atletico	14	14-11	93%	71%	36%	67%	30%	12%	4.0%	2.0%
1	Atalanta	14	15-13	92%	69%	33%	69%	35%	16%	7%	3.4%
0	Barcelona	13	15-10	90%	65%	29%	68%	36%	18%	8%	4.0%
3	Aston Villa	13	15-14	86%	58%	25%	52%	18%	5%	1.5%	< 1%
3	Juventus	13	11-10	86%	58%	25%	58%	25%	10%	3.6%	1.8%
3	Paris SG	13	11-10	87%	59%	25%	64%	33%	16%	7%	3.5%
3	Monaco	13	13-15	86%	56%	21%	50%	17%	5%	1.4%	< 1%
3	Sporting	12	20-13	84%	54%	22%	55%	23%	9%	3.1%	1.5%
0	Stuttgart	12	11-8	82%	51%	19%	49%	18%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
0	Milan	12	13-14	80%	46%	14%	47%	19%	7%	2.3%	1.1%
3	Benfica	12	8-10	77%	44%	15%	42%	13%	4.0%	1.1%	< 1%
0	RB Leipzig	11	18-15	76%	43%	14%	49%	22%	9%	3.4%	1.7%
0	PSV	11	15-15	72%	39%	12%	40%	15%	4.9%	1.5%	< 1%
0	Girona	10	18-10	69%	34%	10%	37%	13%	4.4%	1.3%	< 1%
3	Celtic	10	12-10	67%	31%	8%	22%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	Sparta Praha	10	11-15	58%	23%	5%	24%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
3	Brest	10	7-12	56%	23%	5%	20%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
1	Bologna	9	10-9	54%	22%	5%	26%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Lille	9	11-12	52%	20%	4.2%	25%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Feyenoord	8	7-13	35%	11%	1.6%	14%	4.1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Salzburg	8	8-18	31%	8%	1.1%	10%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Brugge	8	7-17	31%	9%	1.3%	11%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
1	Shakhtar	7	6-18	19%	3.6%	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Dinamo Zagreb	7	9-22	21%	4.9%	< 1%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Sturm Graz	6	8-19	14%	2.7%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Young Boys	5	5-11	11%	1.9%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Crvena Zvezda	5	8-20	8%	1.4%	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Slovan Bratislava	3	10-25	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Table below shows what is needed to finish within top-8, top-16 etc. For example, in 50% of the simulations you need 15 points to finish within top-8 and in 1% you need 17 points.

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	9-11	14	15-15	17	16-7
5%	10	12-11	13	16-12	16	21-9
25%	10	11-15	13	9-9	16	15-10
50%	9	13-13	12	19-16	15	15-6
75%	9	10-14	12	11-11	15	13-9
95%	8	12-15	11	9-7	14	15-10
99%	8	11-18	11	14-16	14	13-12