PL: end the year with Europa race matches

 A couple of matches important for the EL race tomorrow and Monday, including Villa vs Brighton and Fulham vs Bournemouth.

Hot Teams
Forest: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 7.1 more than expected
Bournemouth: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Fulham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Newcastle: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 more than expected

Cold Teams
Man City: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 5.8 less than expected
Tottenham: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Brighton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Man United: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
42	Liverpool	84.9	+47	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
36	Arsenal	76.5	+40	< 1%	99.94%	99.83%	99.45%	98.1%	14%	< 1%	< 1%	99.46%
28	Man City	69.6	+27	< 1%	98.5%	96.8%	93%	83%	1.3%	< 1%	6%	93%
35	Chelsea	69.5	+28	< 1%	98.4%	96.5%	92%	82%	1.5%	< 1%	7%	92%
29	Newcastle	59.4	+13	< 1%	65%	51%	33%	12%	< 1%	13%	32%	32%
34	Forest	57.8	-1	< 1%	49%	35%	20%	7%	< 1%	12%	28%	20%
28	Aston Villa	57.5	-0	< 1%	48%	35%	20%	7%	< 1%	12%	27%	21%
23	Tottenham	55.1	+20	< 1%	36%	24%	12%	3.7%	< 1%	15%	22%	25%
29	Bournemouth	54.5	+2	< 1%	29%	18%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	11%	19%	8%
26	Brighton	53.9	+1	< 1%	26%	16%	8%	2.1%	< 1%	10%	18%	8%
28	Fulham	53.8	-0	< 1%	25%	15%	7%	2.0%	< 1%	10%	17%	7%
22	Man United	50.4	-2	< 1%	11%	6%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	8%	12%
24	Brentford	48.8	-5	< 1%	7%	3.5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	4.3%	6%	1.3%
23	West Ham	48.8	-11	< 1%	6%	2.8%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%	4.6%	< 1%
19	Crystal Palace	45.2	-10	2.8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	3.6%	< 1%
17	Everton	41.2	-15	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
14	Wolves	36.9	-21	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Leicester	33.6	-32	65%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Ipswich	29.1	-36	89%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	Southampton	22.8	-45	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Aston Villa vs Brighton (4.2%)	Home Win (52%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (25%)
Aston Villa	56%	43%	36%
Brighton	19%	26%	37%
Fulham vs Bournemouth (3.9%)	Home Win (50%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Bournemouth	21%	28%	39%
Fulham	31%	21%	16%
Man United vs Newcastle (2.7%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Newcastle	57%	64%	75%
Man United	24%	18%	16%
Everton vs Forest (2.2%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Forest	41%	47%	60%

 Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Everton	48%	23%	28%	Forest
Tottenham	65%	19%	16%	Wolves
Crystal Palace	65%	19%	16%	Southampton
Fulham	50%	23%	27%	Bournemouth
West Ham	24%	22%	54%	Liverpool
Aston Villa	52%	23%	25%	Brighton
Ipswich	21%	22%	58%	Chelsea
Man United	46%	24%	30%	Newcastle
Brentford	24%	23%	53%	Arsenal
Everton	20%	21%	59%	Liverpool

Most likely combo of teams in CL

18%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
11%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
10%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
4.4%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
4.1%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Liverpool, Man City
3.7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
2.6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Newcastle

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

53%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
23%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
8%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
7%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
2.1%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
2.0%	Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton

PL: Man City more likely to play EL than win the league.

Liverpool have an 8-point gap down to Arsenal in average simulated points. Man City now miss a CL spot (4.9%) more often than they win the league (2.5%). After the top-four it's a tight race between five teams about the fifth CL spot and the two EL spots. Newcastle host Aston Villa in an important match in this race.

Hot Teams
Bournemouth: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 6.4 more than expected
Forest: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 6.3 more than expected
Chelsea: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Aston Villa: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Man City: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 5.4 less than expected
Brighton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Tottenham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 less than expected
Wolves: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Ipswich: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
39	Liverpool	84.5	+47	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.91%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
33	Arsenal	76.1	+41	< 1%	99.91%	99.75%	99.25%	97.3%	14%	< 1%	< 1%	99.23%
35	Chelsea	71.6	+31	< 1%	99.20%	98.1%	95.5%	88%	3.6%	< 1%	4.3%	95.1%
27	Man City	71.1	+29	< 1%	99.09%	98.0%	95.1%	87%	2.5%	< 1%	4.0%	95.1%
28	Aston Villa	58.6	+2	< 1%	55%	41%	25%	7%	< 1%	11%	29%	25%
26	Newcastle	58.2	+11	< 1%	56%	41%	24%	7%	< 1%	15%	32%	23%
23	Tottenham	56.5	+21	< 1%	46%	32%	18%	4.8%	< 1%	14%	26%	29%
31	Forest	56.1	-2	< 1%	37%	25%	13%	3.3%	< 1%	12%	24%	12%
28	Bournemouth	55.2	+2	< 1%	33%	21%	10%	2.3%	< 1%	12%	22%	10%
25	Brighton	54.7	+2	< 1%	31%	20%	10%	2.2%	< 1%	11%	20%	9%
22	Man United	51.7	+0	< 1%	16%	9%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	11%	14%
25	Fulham	51.5	-2	< 1%	14%	8%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	12%	3.3%
23	Brentford	48.7	-5	< 1%	7%	3.6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	4.5%	6%	1.3%
20	West Ham	47.4	-11	1.3%	3.8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	3.3%	< 1%
18	Crystal Palace	45.3	-11	2.7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	3.8%	< 1%
16	Everton	40.6	-17	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%
11	Wolves	35.3	-23	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Leicester	33.9	-32	58%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Ipswich	29.3	-37	86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	Southampton	23.9	-45	97.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Important matches for CL race
Newcastle vs Aston Villa (4%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Newcastle	30%	20%	14%
Aston Villa	19%	26%	36%

 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Wolves vs Man United (2.6%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Wolves	67%	56%	50%
Leicester	38%	43%	46%
Ipswich	12%	15%	16%

 

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	94%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	80%
League cup winners	100%	91%	85%
Sixth team	99.91%	99.03%	3.2%
Seventh team	97.9%	82%	3.1%
Eighth team	79%	10%	2.9%

 Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Man City	78%	14%	8%	Everton
Chelsea	64%	20%	17%	Fulham
Newcastle	51%	23%	26%	Aston Villa
Forest	35%	24%	41%	Tottenham
Southampton	32%	24%	45%	West Ham
Bournemouth	49%	23%	28%	Crystal Palace
Wolves	39%	24%	37%	Man United
Liverpool	82%	12%	6%	Leicester
Brighton	53%	23%	24%	Brentford
Arsenal	84%	10%	5%	Ipswich
Everton	20%	21%	59%	Liverpool

Most likely combo of teams in CL

15%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
14%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
12%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
6%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
6%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.0%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
2.7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

43%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
29%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
9%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
8%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
2.3%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
1.8%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves
1.7%	Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton
1.4%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves

 

PL: Important match when Wolves visit Leicester

Important match when Wolves visit Leicester and both teams have a 25% swing.

 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Leicester vs Wolves (7%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Leicester	66%	52%	41%
Wolves	31%	42%	56%

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
36	Liverpool	83.0	+44	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.78%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	99.96%
30	Arsenal	75.0	+38	< 1%	99.83%	99.55%	98.7%	95.7%	13%	< 1%	1.1%	98.7%
27	Man City	72.8	+31	< 1%	99.52%	98.9%	97.1%	91%	7%	< 1%	2.4%	97.1%
34	Chelsea	72.3	+31	< 1%	99.36%	98.5%	96.4%	90%	6%	< 1%	3.5%	96.0%
23	Tottenham	57.7	+24	< 1%	56%	42%	26%	7%	< 1%	12%	27%	36%
23	Newcastle	56.9	+7	< 1%	48%	34%	19%	4.3%	< 1%	15%	29%	19%
25	Aston Villa	56.7	+1	< 1%	44%	31%	18%	4.1%	< 1%	10%	26%	18%
24	Brighton	54.9	+2	< 1%	34%	22%	11%	2.3%	< 1%	10%	22%	11%
28	Forest	54.0	-5	< 1%	27%	17%	8%	1.6%	< 1%	9%	19%	8%
22	Man United	53.6	+4	< 1%	27%	17%	8%	1.5%	< 1%	11%	17%	17%
25	Bournemouth	53.1	-2	< 1%	23%	14%	6%	1.0%	< 1%	9%	16%	6%
24	Fulham	52.6	-1	< 1%	21%	13%	6%	1.0%	< 1%	8%	16%	6%
23	Brentford	50.5	-3	< 1%	13%	8%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	10%	3.0%
19	West Ham	48.0	-11	1.2%	5%	2.7%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	4.5%	< 1%
18	Crystal Palace	46.2	-7	2.1%	3.3%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%	4.8%	< 1%
15	Everton	40.7	-18	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
14	Leicester	35.4	-29	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	Wolves	33.5	-26	59%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Ipswich	30.4	-34	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	Southampton	23.6	-46	97.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 81 - 87
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 39

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Aston Villa	29%	23%	48%	Man City
Ipswich	26%	23%	51%	Newcastle
West Ham	46%	24%	30%	Brighton
Brentford	52%	23%	25%	Forest
Crystal Palace	24%	23%	53%	Arsenal
Everton	30%	24%	46%	Chelsea
Man United	55%	22%	23%	Bournemouth
Leicester	44%	24%	32%	Wolves
Fulham	66%	19%	15%	Southampton
Tottenham	32%	24%	44%	Liverpool
Everton	20%	21%	59%	Liverpool

Most likely combo of teams in CL

19%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
12%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
11%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
7%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
4.9%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
3.8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.7%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.3%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Liverpool, Man City
3.3%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

41%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
29%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
12%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
7%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
3.0%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves
2.0%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
1.5%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves
1.1%	Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	100%	94%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	80%
League cup winners	100%	84%	77%
Sixth team	99.85%	99.08%	3.8%
Seventh team	96.8%	82%	3.3%
Eighth team	75%	11%	2.9%

Europa and Conference League

Seven teams have practically clinched top24 and a place in the knockout stage and of those Lazio and Bilbao have practically (>99.9%) clinched Top8 and a place in the round of 16.

Europa League

Clinching Scenarios

• Frankfurt clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Ferencvaros (89%)
• Lazio clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Sociedad (82%)
• Bilbao clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Besiktas (80%)
• Galatasaray clinch Top16 if they win against Dynamo Kyiv (72%)
• Man United clinch Top16 if they win against Rangers (67%)
• Porto clinch Top24 if they win against Olympiakos (65%)
• Lyon clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Fenerbahce (54%)
• Bodoe Glimt clinch Top24 if they win against M Tel Aviv (53%)
• Tottenham clinch Top16 if they win against Hoffenheim (49%)
• St Gillis clinch Top24 if they win against Braga (48%)
• Viktoria Plzen clinch Top24 if they win against Anderlecht (46%)
• Ajax clinch Top16 if they win against RFS and Lazio win against Sociedad (45%)
• Roma clinch Top24 if they win against Alkmaar (45%)
• Sociedad clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Lazio (39%)
• Fenerbahce clinch Top24 if they win against Lyon and Slavia Praha draw (or win) against PAOK (31%)
• Alkmaar clinch Top24 if they win against Roma and Frankfurt and Ferencvaros do not draw  (26%)
• Anderlecht clinch Top8 if they win against Viktoria Plzen and Man United draw (or win) against Rangers (26%)
• Olympiakos clinch Top24 if they win against Porto (16%)
• Rangers clinch Top16 if they win against Man United (15%)
• Steaua clinch Top16 if they win against Karabakh Agdam and Lazio win against Sociedad (13%)
• Ferencvaros clinch Top24 if they win against Frankfurt (11%)
• Lyon clinch Top8 if they win against Fenerbahce and Hoffenheim draw against Tottenham (7%)
• Sociedad clinch Top16 if they win against Lazio and Fenerbahce draw against Lyon (4%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	16	Lazio	20	17-5	100%	100%	99.95%	>99.99%	75%	50%	32%	16%
2	16	Bilbao	20	14-3	100%	100%	99.97%	>99.99%	65%	36%	18%	9%
3	14	Anderlecht	17	14-9	100%	100%	82%	93%	44%	16%	6%	2.8%
4	13	Lyon	16	20-10	100%	>99.99%	88%	96.1%	57%	28%	13%	6%
5	12	Man United	16	18-12	100%	99.31%	81%	95.2%	64%	37%	21%	10%
6	13	Frankfurt	16	15-9	100%	99.92%	83%	95.0%	59%	31%	15%	8%
7	11	Tottenham	15	15-8	100%	98.5%	67%	94%	68%	46%	29%	15%
8	12	Galatasaray	15	20-14	100%	99.14%	66%	89%	49%	23%	10%	5.0%
9	10	Ajax	14	16-6	>99.99%	94%	44%	79%	38%	16%	7%	3.3%
10	11	Rangers	14	15-11	100%	85%	22%	61%	21%	7%	2.0%	< 1%
11	10	Sociedad	13	14-10	99.96%	81%	14%	71%	35%	17%	8%	3.8%
12	10	Bodoe Glimt	13	13-13	99.68%	68%	9%	47%	12%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	8	Porto	12	14-10	96.3%	67%	6%	73%	41%	24%	14%	7%
14	9	Roma	12	13-9	98.9%	72%	16%	74%	39%	21%	10%	5%
15	9	Olympiakos	12	6-4	97.9%	59%	5%	52%	18%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
16	11	Steaua	12	13-13	>99.99%	58%	8%	31%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	9	Viktoria Plzen	12	12-13	96.4%	47%	4.1%	49%	16%	5%	1.6%	< 1%
18	9	Ferencvaros	11	14-13	94%	40%	3.1%	32%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
19	8	St Gillis	11	7-7	85%	32%	< 1%	42%	14%	4.8%	1.5%	< 1%
20	8	Alkmaar	11	10-11	81%	28%	< 1%	34%	9%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
21	8	Fenerbahce	11	9-10	85%	33%	< 1%	50%	21%	9%	3.8%	1.9%
22	7	Midtjylland	10	7-10	61%	12%	< 1%	22%	5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	Braga	9	11-14	53%	9%	< 1%	25%	9%	3.1%	1.0%	< 1%
24	7	PAOK	8	12-11	53%	8%	< 1%	19%	4.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	4	Slavia Praha	8	9-10	39%	< 1%	< 1%	23%	11%	5%	2.3%	1.2%
26	6	Hoffenheim	8	7-10	37%	4.0%	< 1%	17%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
27	7	Elfsborg	8	9-15	32%	1.7%	< 1%	7%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	4	Twente	7	11-11	31%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	4.0%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
29	6	M Tel Aviv	7	10-17	27%	3.8%	< 1%	9%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	6	Besiktas	7	8-17	18%	1.1%	< 1%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	2	Nice	6	9-16	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Karabakh Agdam	6	5-15	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	Razgrad	6	4-14	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	4	Malmoe	5	9-16	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	2	RFS	2	8-18	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	8-8	13	14-12	16	19-7
5%	10	7-9	12	14-7	16	14-7
25%	9	9-10	12	8-6	15	15-7
50%	9	6-9	12	12-12	15	11-6
75%	9	8-18	11	15-12	14	19-9
95%	8	11-15	11	12-13	14	15-11
99%	8	10-16	11	7-10	14	8-6

Europa Conference League

Clinching Scenarios

• Betis clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against HJK Helsinki (96%)
• Panathinaikos clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Dinamo Minsk (93%)
• Gent clinch Top16 if they win against Larne (84%)
• APOEL clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against FK Astana (79%)
• Cercle Brugge clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Bueyueksehir (78%)
• Jagiellonia clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Olimpija Ljubljana (78%)
• Fiorentina clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Guimaraes (73%)
• Hearts clinch Top24 if they win against Petrocub (70%)
• Heidenheim clinch Top16 if they win against StGallen (69%)
• Legia clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Djurgarden (64%)
• Rapid Wien clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against FC Kobenhavn (63%)
• Djurgarden clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Legia (60%)
• Guimaraes clinch Top8 if Chelsea draw (or win) against Shamrock and FC Kobenhavn draw (or win) against Rapid Wien (60%)
• Celje clinch Top24 if they win against The New Saints and Cercle Brugge draw (or win) against Bueyueksehir (58%)
• Cercle Brugge clinch Top8 if they win against Bueyueksehir (56%)
• Lugano clinch Top8 if they win against Paphos (52%)
• Borac Banja Luka clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Omonia (52%)
• Omonia clinch Top24 if they win against Borac Banja Luka (48%)
• FC Kobenhavn clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Rapid Wien and Rapid Wien and FC Kobenhavn do not draw  (37%)
• Vikingur clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against LASK (32%)
• Jagiellonia clinch Top8 if they win against Olimpija Ljubljana and Paphos draw (or win) against Lugano (27%)
• Paphos clinch Top16 if they win against Lugano (25%)
• Olimpija Ljubljana clinch Top16 if they win against Jagiellonia (22%)
• Bueyueksehir clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Cercle Brugge and Cercle Brugge and Bueyueksehir do not draw  (22%)
• Mlada Boleslav clinch Top24 if they win against Molde (22%)
• Shamrock clinch Top8 if they win against Chelsea (2%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	15	Chelsea	18	26-6	100%	100%	100%	100%	92%	80%	67%	33%
2	12	Fiorentina	15	18-6	100%	100%	98.3%	99.87%	87%	69%	49%	25%
3	12	Lugano	15	10-5	100%	100%	80%	92%	42%	13%	3.0%	1.5%
4	12	Legia	13	13-3	100%	100%	90%	96.9%	56%	23%	7%	3.7%
5	10	Cercle Brugge	13	14-6	100%	>99.99%	58%	85%	40%	14%	3.8%	1.9%
6	13	Guimaraes	13	15-9	100%	100%	99.80%	99.95%	64%	31%	12%	6%
7	10	Jagiellonia	13	11-5	100%	99.85%	58%	85%	41%	15%	4.2%	2.1%
8	10	APOEL	13	8-4	100%	99.06%	57%	79%	27%	7%	1.1%	< 1%
9	9	Gent	12	11-8	100%	95%	38%	85%	49%	24%	9%	4.7%
10	9	Heidenheim	12	9-8	100%	83%	16%	81%	46%	24%	10%	5%
11	11	Shamrock	11	11-7	100%	100%	6%	34%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	10	Djurgarden	11	9-7	100%	95.2%	36%	70%	23%	6%	1.2%	< 1%
13	10	Rapid Wien	11	8-6	100%	88%	36%	75%	33%	12%	3.1%	1.5%
14	7	Betis	10	8-5	99.84%	85%	< 1%	82%	49%	29%	14%	7%
15	7	Panathinaikos	10	9-8	99.60%	75%	< 1%	66%	28%	11%	3.5%	1.8%
16	9	Paphos	9	11-8	100%	65%	19%	59%	20%	6%	1.2%	< 1%
17	8	FC Kobenhavn	9	9-7	100%	42%	< 1%	69%	35%	17%	6%	3.2%
18	9	Olimpija Ljubljana	9	8-8	100%	43%	8%	52%	17%	5%	1.1%	< 1%
19	6	Hearts	9	7-9	85%	2.0%	< 1%	29%	7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
20	7	Borac Banja Luka	8	4-7	75%	11%	< 1%	13%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	4	Celje	7	12-11	75%	< 1%	< 1%	25%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
22	6	Omonia	7	9-9	79%	9%	< 1%	32%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
23	4	Molde	7	7-8	56%	< 1%	< 1%	28%	11%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%
24	7	Vikingur	7	6-8	87%	9%	< 1%	17%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	4	Backa Topola	7	7-10	45%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	6	Mlada Boleslav	6	5-8	43%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
27	5	Bueyueksehir	5	9-13	24%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	2	LASK	5	6-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	4	FK Astana	4	4-9	15%	< 1%	< 1%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	4	HJK Helsinki	4	5-13	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	4	StGallen	4	9-18	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	4	Noah	4	5-15	9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	The New Saints	3	4-10	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	3	Dinamo Minsk	3	4-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	7	9-8	10	9-5	13	10-4
5%	7	8-8	10	9-7	13	11-7
25%	7	5-7	10	8-7	12	17-7
50%	7	4-7	10	8-8	12	13-8
75%	7	7-13	9	11-8	12	10-7
95%	6	9-12	9	8-7	11	14-7
99%	6	6-11	9	7-8	11	11-7

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	95%	19.87	12.07	27.29
ITA	43%	16.45	10.44	23.75
POR	25%	15.55	9.3	26.9
ESP	17%	15.19	9.29	22.86
BEL	14%	15.07	9.8	24.1
CYP	2.7%	13.28	9.33	22.67
GER	2.6%	13.39	7.75	22.36
GRE	< 1%	10.9	7.13	19.88
FRA	< 1%	11.08	6.93	18.57
NED	< 1%	10.34	6.33	19.08
TUR	< 1%	10.59	7.1	18.4
CZE	< 1%	10.05	7.5	18
SWE	< 1%	9.82	8	17.25
NOR	< 1%	8.2	6.13	15.88
DEN	< 1%	8.24	5.75	15.88

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 250 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	12%	37%	36%	14%	1.9%
Chance if	< 1%	6%	31%	72%	96%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 244 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	3.6%	19%	36%	29%	11%	1.6%
Chance if	1.8%	9%	31%	63%	89%	98.8%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 239 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.9%	11%	29%	34%	19%	4.6%
Chance if	< 1%	4.2%	21%	50%	77%	93%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 210 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	42%	42%	14%	1.9%
Chance if	5%	27%	69%	97%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 204 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	17%	38%	31%	12%	2.2%
Chance if	< 1%	4.1%	21%	58%	90%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 197 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.6%	11%	28%	34%	19%	5%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	14%	41%	72%	93%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POR; 166 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	3.8%	23%	43%	26%	4.6%
Chance if	< 1%	3.0%	20%	48%	76%

Number of quarterfinalists from BEL; 145 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	13%	38%	36%	12%	1.5%
Chance if	< 1%	2.8%	17%	46%	81%

Number of semifinalists from BEL; 127 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	50%	40%	9%	< 1%
Chance if	3.0%	17%	53%	88%

Number of semifinalists from ENG; 105 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.0%	9%	26%	35%	22%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	32%	69%	93%	99.5%	99.99%	100%	100%