PL: Will Aston Villa keep winning?

If Villa keep their streak going and beat Arsenal, they double their chances in the title race. If they lose, on the other hand, they half their chances. 

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 8.2 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 5.4 more than expected
Leeds: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected
Fulham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Sunderland: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Brighton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 5.3 less than expected
Wolves: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Bournemouth: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Burnley: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Newcastle: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
42	Arsenal	83.6	+46	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.91%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
40	Man City	76.6	+40	< 1%	99.94%	99.84%	99.45%	97.8%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	99.38%
39	Aston Villa	71.1	+17	< 1%	98.9%	97.6%	94%	85%	3.2%	< 1%	3.4%	95.6%
32	Liverpool	66.6	+15	< 1%	94%	90%	81%	62%	< 1%	2.5%	14%	80%
29	Chelsea	62.6	+21	< 1%	85%	75%	60%	33%	< 1%	7%	26%	59%
29	Man United	57.0	+4	< 1%	47%	33%	18%	7%	< 1%	12%	28%	18%
26	Crystal Palace	55.3	+3	< 1%	36%	23%	12%	4.1%	< 1%	7%	14%	47%
24	Brighton	53.8	+4	< 1%	27%	17%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	11%	20%	8%
26	Brentford	53.6	+3	< 1%	25%	15%	7%	2.2%	< 1%	11%	19%	7%
23	Newcastle	53.4	+4	< 1%	25%	15%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	18%	21%	7%
25	Tottenham	53.0	+4	< 1%	23%	14%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	10%	18%	6%
25	Everton	51.9	-3	< 1%	16%	9%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%	8%	14%	3.7%
26	Fulham	50.8	-6	1.1%	12%	6%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	10%	2.6%
22	Bournemouth	49.3	-7	2.0%	8%	4.0%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	5.0%	7%	1.5%
28	Sunderland	44.8	-17	8%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	1.0%	< 1%
18	Forest	43.2	-14	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	8%
20	Leeds	41.0	-19	26%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	West Ham	35.9	-25	66%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%
12	Burnley	33.3	-26	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Wolves	20.6	-44	99.81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	78%	30%	45%	24%
Man City	19%	17%	29%	10%
Aston Villa	3.2%	3.6%		28%
Liverpool	< 1%	12%		5%
Chelsea	< 1%	10%	14%	4.1%
Man United	< 1%	2.1%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	4.7%		40%
Brighton	< 1%	2.1%
Brentford	< 1%	2.9%
Newcastle	< 1%	4.1%	11%	1.4%
Tottenham	< 1%	2.0%		< 1%
Everton	< 1%	2.5%
Fulham	< 1%	1.7%
Bournemouth		1.3%
Sunderland		< 1%
Forest		1.7%		8%
Leeds		< 1%
West Ham		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Aston Villa (3.1%)	Home Win (66%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (15%)
Arsenal	82%	73%	66%
Aston Villa	1.8%	3.9%	8%
Man City	16%	22%	25%

Important matches for CL race
Chelsea vs Bournemouth (2.7%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (19%)
Chelsea	65%	52%	46%
Bournemouth	< 1%	1.5%	3.5%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Brentford vs Tottenham (3.4%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Brentford	32%	23%	18%
Tottenham	18%	24%	34%

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Brentford vs Tottenham (4.2%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Brentford	45%	33%	26%
Tottenham	27%	34%	46%

 

Arsenal top at Christmas

Both Man City and Aston Villa are in a winning streak, with 15 points in the last five games. 

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 6.8 more than expected
Sunderland: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Leeds: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Fulham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Bournemouth: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Wolves: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Burnley: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Brighton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected
Tottenham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
39	Arsenal	82.9	+46	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.86%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%
37	Man City	75.2	+40	< 1%	99.85%	99.59%	98.8%	96.1%	17%	< 1%	1.1%	98.7%
36	Aston Villa	69.0	+15	< 1%	97.3%	94%	88%	75%	2.4%	1.2%	7%	91%
29	Liverpool	66.0	+16	< 1%	93%	87%	77%	57%	< 1%	3.0%	17%	76%
29	Chelsea	64.5	+22	< 1%	90%	83%	70%	47%	< 1%	5%	21%	69%
26	Crystal Palace	57.1	+4	< 1%	47%	33%	18%	8%	< 1%	8%	17%	51%
26	Man United	55.6	+4	< 1%	37%	25%	13%	5%	< 1%	12%	25%	12%
23	Newcastle	54.6	+5	< 1%	32%	20%	10%	3.8%	< 1%	19%	25%	10%
24	Brighton	54.3	+4	< 1%	30%	19%	9%	3.4%	< 1%	12%	21%	9%
24	Everton	52.3	-3	< 1%	18%	10%	4.4%	1.5%	< 1%	9%	15%	4.3%
23	Brentford	52.2	+0	< 1%	19%	11%	4.6%	1.5%	< 1%	9%	16%	4.4%
22	Tottenham	50.9	+3	1.4%	14%	8%	3.3%	1.1%	< 1%	8%	13%	3.2%
22	Bournemouth	50.4	-4	1.8%	11%	6%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	10%	2.3%
23	Fulham	49.0	-7	3.2%	7%	3.7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	7%	1.4%
27	Sunderland	45.3	-17	10%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	1.4%	< 1%
18	Forest	44.3	-14	14%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	2.7%	8%
19	Leeds	41.2	-19	29%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	West Ham	37.5	-24	58%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%
11	Burnley	33.7	-26	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Wolves	21.0	-45	99.81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	79%	30%	37%	24%
Man City	17%	17%	31%	10%
Aston Villa	2.4%	3.6%		28%
Liverpool	< 1%	12%		5%
Chelsea	< 1%	10%	17%	4.1%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	4.7%	2.9%	40%
Man United	< 1%	2.1%
Newcastle	< 1%	4.1%	12%	1.4%
Brighton	< 1%	2.1%
Everton	< 1%	2.5%
Brentford	< 1%	2.9%
Tottenham	< 1%	2.0%		< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	1.3%
Fulham		1.7%
Sunderland		< 1%
Forest		1.7%		8%
Leeds		< 1%
West Ham		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%

 

Conference League Last 24

Below are the probabilities for the knockout phase of Conference League. 

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	16	Strasbourg	16	11-5	100%	73%	41%	29%	16%
2	14	Rakow	14	9-2	100%	47%	15%	6%	1.9%
3	13	AEK	13	14-7	100%	60%	30%	9%	3.1%
4	13	Sparta Praha	13	10-3	100%	64%	34%	11%	4.2%
5	13	Rayo Vallecano	13	13-7	100%	78%	50%	21%	9%
6	13	Shakhtar	13	10-5	100%	65%	32%	10%	3.2%
7	13	Mainz	13	7-3	100%	55%	31%	20%	9%
8	12	Larnaca	12	7-1	100%	37%	11%	4.3%	1.1%
9	11	Lausanne	11	6-3	59%	16%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%
10	10	Crystal Palace	10	11-6	96.6%	82%	65%	55%	40%
11	10	Lech	10	12-8	83%	27%	11%	2.3%	< 1%
12	10	Samsunspor	10	10-6	82%	26%	10%	2.1%	< 1%
13	10	Celje	10	8-7	78%	26%	9%	1.8%	< 1%
14	10	Alkmaar	10	7-7	89%	47%	24%	8%	3.0%
15	9	Fiorentina	9	8-5	76%	44%	22%	15%	7%
16	9	Rijeka	9	5-2	29%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	9	Jagiellonia	9	5-4	50%	17%	5%	2.1%	< 1%
18	8	Omonia	8	5-4	46%	14%	3.7%	1.3%	< 1%
19	8	Noah	8	6-7	18%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	8	Drita	8	4-8	15%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	7	Kuopio	7	6-5	21%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Shkendija	7	4-5	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	Zrinjski Mostar	7	8-10	15%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	7	Sigma Olomouc	7	7-9	29%	8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	95.9%	19.4	12.56	25.83
ITA	38%	15.92	9	24.64
GER	36%	15.85	9.71	24.21
POL	17%	15.2	12	22.5
POR	7%	13.67	8.4	23
ESP	4.2%	13.61	8.56	20.88
FRA	1.3%	12.68	7.44	20.36
GRE	< 1%	10.88	7.6	19.7
CYP	< 1%	10.95	9.13	19.13
CZE	< 1%	9.59	6.7	17.8
DEN	< 1%	9.91	7.63	17
TUR	< 1%	9.33	5.8	17.3
NED	< 1%	8.89	5.58	16.17
BEL	< 1%	7.07	4.5	16

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 254 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.3%	14%	30%	32%	17%	4.3%
Chance if	< 1%	3.5%	18%	47%	76%	94%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 230 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.2%	10%	28%	35%	21%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	1.9%	12%	37%	67%	89%	98%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 229 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	15%	38%	32%	12%	2.1%
Chance if	3.7%	18%	49%	81%	97%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 226 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	20%	41%	28%	9%	1.4%
Chance if	7%	26%	59%	88%	98.9%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 167 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	< 1%	6%	22%	38%	28%	6%
Chance if	< 1%	2.4%	13%	35%	62%	83%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 142 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	28%	54%	18%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	15%	48%	83%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 140 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	72%	26%	2.3%
Chance if	7%	39%	88%

Number of finalists from GER; 135 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	41%	42%	15%	2.1%
Chance if	16%	40%	71%	93%

Number of finalists from ITA; 133 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	45%	41%	12%	1.4%
Chance if	19%	46%	78%	96%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from GER; 114 mbit

n	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	2.2%	17%	44%	35%	1.9%
Chance if	1.8%	10%	29%	56%	82%

 

Conference League prior last matchday

Six or seven points will required to reach the knockout stage. Thirteen teams have clinched knockout stage and another nine team have almost surely (>95%) clinched knockout stage. The remaining two points are fought for by Mostar, Lincoln, Rijecka and a few other countries.

Clinching Scenarios

• Shakhtar clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Rijeka (87%)
• Rayo Vallecano clinch Top8 if they win against Drita (85%)
• Sparta Praha clinch Top8 if they win against Aberdeen (78%)
• Noah clinch knockout stage if Larnaca win against Shkendija (77%)
• Lausanne clinch knockout stage if Larnaca win against Shkendija (77%)
• Mainz clinch Top8 if they win against Samsunspor (69%)
• Jagiellonia clinch knockout stage if Rapid Wien draw (or win) against Zrinjski Mostar (62%)
• AEK clinch Top8 if they win against Craiova (62%)
• Sigma Olomouc clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Lech and Strasbourg win against Breidablik (61%)
• Lech clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Sigma Olomouc (57%)
• Drita clinch knockout stage if Sigma Olomouc and Lech do not draw  and AEK win against Craiova (47%)
• Zrinjski Mostar clinch knockout stage if they win against Rapid Wien (38%)
• Craiova clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against AEK and Legia win against Lincoln (33%)
• Rakow clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Omonia and Omonia and Rakow do not draw  (32%)
• Rijeka clinch knockout stage if they win against Sparta Praha and Legia draw (or win) against Lincoln (25%)
• Shkendija clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Larnaca (23%)
• Samsunspor clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Mainz and Mainz and Samsunspor do not draw  (13%)
• Lincoln clinch knockout stage if they win against Legia (5%)
• Kuopio clinch knockout stage if they win against Crystal Palace (2%)
• Breidablik clinch knockout stage if they win against Strasbourg and Rapid Wien draw (or win) against Zrinjski Mostar (2%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	13	Strasbourg	16	11-4	100%	100%	100%	100%	81%	52%	31%	16%
2	12	Shakhtar	15	13-7	100%	100%	94%	98.8%	58%	23%	8%	2.4%
3	10	Sparta Praha	14	14-7	100%	>99.99%	91%	98.4%	62%	28%	11%	3.7%
4	10	AEK	13	13-6	100%	>99.99%	65%	93%	51%	22%	7%	2.4%
5	10	Rayo Vallecano	13	13-8	100%	99.91%	85%	97.6%	68%	39%	18%	8%
6	10	Mainz	13	8-5	100%	99.88%	69%	95.5%	67%	41%	21%	9%
7	9	Crystal Palace	12	13-5	100%	99.93%	89%	99.59%	88%	72%	59%	43%
8	9	Larnaca	12	8-1	100%	98.3%	66%	90%	37%	12%	3.4%	< 1%
9	11	Rakow	12	9-3	100%	100%	51%	89%	42%	16%	4.8%	1.4%
10	9	Fiorentina	12	9-4	100%	95%	36%	92%	59%	35%	19%	9%
11	9	Celje	12	10-7	100%	95.8%	25%	77%	25%	7%	1.6%	< 1%
12	9	Alkmaar	12	8-7	100%	85%	11%	81%	39%	18%	7%	2.3%
13	10	Samsunspor	10	10-5	100%	99.95%	16%	72%	25%	8%	1.8%	< 1%
14	8	Omonia	9	7-5	>99.99%	69%	< 1%	63%	19%	6%	1.5%	< 1%
15	7	Lech	8	11-8	99.85%	43%	< 1%	57%	18%	6%	1.4%	< 1%
16	8	Lausanne	8	6-5	>99.99%	43%	< 1%	50%	11%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
17	8	Noah	8	7-7	>99.99%	29%	< 1%	26%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	8	Jagiellonia	8	6-6	>99.99%	33%	< 1%	61%	21%	7%	2.2%	< 1%
19	7	Sigma Olomouc	8	8-9	99.23%	42%	< 1%	46%	11%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
20	8	Drita	8	4-7	99.96%	7%	< 1%	19%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	6	Zrinjski Mostar	7	8-10	62%	16%	< 1%	14%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Craiova	7	5-7	97.2%	17%	< 1%	42%	11%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	Shkendija	7	5-7	96.9%	9%	< 1%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	7	Lincoln	7	6-13	74%	4.0%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	5	Rijeka	6	7-7	42%	12%	< 1%	16%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	3	Dynamo Kyiv	6	9-10	7%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	3	Legia	6	8-9	8%	< 1%	< 1%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	6	Kuopio	6	4-6	8%	1.4%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	5	Breidablik	5	5-11	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	3	Haecken	4	5-7	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	3	Slovan Bratislava	4	7-12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Hamrun	3	3-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	7	13-11	10	8-4	12	17-6
5%	7	9-11	10	6-5	12	14-5
25%	7	7-11	9	7-4	12	11-4
50%	7	6-13	9	8-7	12	9-3
75%	7	6-16	9	8-9	12	10-6
95%	6	7-7	8	8-8	11	11-5
99%	6	6-7	8	5-5	11	8-4