Premier League

Here are our predictions of Premier League with nine matches left. We have simulated the remaining matches a million times and the table below shows the average outcome, taking into account home advantage and whether teams schedules easier or tougher.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	97.1	104-29	100	100
Man United	79.8	75-32	0.027	97.3
Liverpool	76.8	85-42	0.0007	89.2
Tottenham	75.3	73-34	0.0001	79.6
Chelsea	71.6	70-35	0	33.7
Arsenal	62.2	70-51	0	0.118

Chelsea, for example, is expected to take 18.6 points during the remaining nine matches, while Tottenham is expected to take 17.3 points (as they have slightly tougher schedule)

Table below shows some scenarios. For example, if Tottenham take at least 17 points (as expected), they finish within top-4 in 97% of the simulations.

Man United 99.7% if they take at least 14 more points (of 27), otherwise 80%

Man United 99.4% if they take at least 13 more points (of 27), otherwise 71%

Man United 99.9% if they take at least 15 more points (of 27), otherwise 86%

Liverpool 98.3% if they take at least 15 more points (of 27), otherwise 63%

Liverpool 97% if they take at least 14 more points (of 27), otherwise 54%

Liverpool 99.2% if they take at least 16 more points (of 27), otherwise 71%

Tottenham 94% if they take at least 16 more points (of 27), otherwise 45%

Tottenham 97% if they take at least 17 more points (of 27), otherwise 53%

Tottenham 92% if they take at least 15 more points (of 27), otherwise 36%

Chelsea 66% if they take at least 20 more points (of 27), otherwise 11%

Chelsea 74% if they take at least 21 more points (of 27), otherwise 15%

Chelsea 57% if they take at least 19 more points (of 27), otherwise 6.8%

Arsenal 2.6% if they take at least 24 more points (of 27), otherwise 0.015%

Arsenal 1.8% if they take at least 23 more points (of 27), otherwise 0.0072%

Arsenal 4.6% if they take at least 25 more points (of 27), otherwise 0.034%

CL: Juventus come back in London

Juventus were down for counting with a goal by Son for Tottenham in the end of first half. Juventus chances to win the tournament were down to below 1 in 150, but with two quick goals in the middle of second half they flipped the pancake and now stand 1 in 8 chance.

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	100%	65%	41%	25%
Barcelona	71%	46%	29%	17%
Man City	100%	56%	30%	15%
Bayern	100%	53%	26%	12%
Juventus	100%	52%	26%	12%
Liverpool	100%	41%	16%	6%
Man United	65%	30%	13%	5%
Chelsea	29%	14%	6%	3%
Roma	51%	20%	7%	3%
Shakhtar	49%	12%	3%	<1%
Sevilla	35%	10%	3%	<1%
Besiktas	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

CL: Real Madrid and Liverpool through to quarter-finals

Real Madrid clinched quarter-final with their goal early in second half. Liverpool could not lose their five-goal advatage from first leg.

Figure shows how teams' chances to win the tournament have changed over time.

CL: Round of 16

With first leg played 13 teams are still in the competition. Curves below show how each teams chance (to win the tournament) developed over the first 90 minutes. Most notably, Real's comeback against PSG, Barcelona's equalizer against Chelsea, and Tottenham's comeback against Juventus changed the chances significantly for Tottenham and Juventus.

The four favourites are still favourites Real increased their chances against PSG from 70% to 87%. Barcelona increased their chances slighly with their draw away (+3%). Man City and Bayern virtually secured advancement in first leg. Liverpool killed thei match in the first leg as well. Tottenham turned around 44% chance against Juventus to 64% with a 2-2 draw away. Shakhtar increased chances against Roma to 49% (+14%) with a 2-1 win at home. Sevilla increaed their chances slightly against Man United to 35% (+4%) with a 0-0 draw at home.

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	87%	57%	37%	22%
Barcelona	71%	47%	30%	18%
Man City	100%	57%	31%	16%
Bayern	100%	54%	27%	13%
Liverpool	100%	42%	16%	6%
Tottenham	64%	30%	13%	6%
Man United	65%	30%	13%	6%
Juventus	36%	19%	10%	5%
Chelsea	29%	14%	7%	3%
Roma	51%	20%	7%	3%
Paris SG	13%	6%	3%	1%
Shakhtar	49%	13%	3%	<1%
Sevilla	35%	10%	3%	<1%
Besiktas	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Porto	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Basel	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

CL: Round of 16

After six leg-1 matches three teams are virtually through and three matches are open.

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	87%	57%	36%	22%
Barcelona	71%	47%	30%	18%
Man City	100%	57%	31%	16%
Bayern	100%	53%	27%	13%
Liverpool	100%	42%	16%	6%
Man United	69%	32%	14%	6%
Tottenham	64%	30%	13%	6%
Juventus	36%	19%	9%	5%
Roma	65%	25%	9%	4%
Chelsea	29%	14%	7%	3%
Paris SG	13%	6%	3%	1%
Sevilla	31%	9%	3%	<1%
Shakhtar	35%	9%	2%	<1%
Besiktas	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Porto	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Basel	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

CL: Round of 16

Updated probabilities for teams to reach each round

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	87%	58%	37%	22%
Barcelona	68%	45%	29%	17%
Man City	100%	58%	32%	16%
Bayern	80%	43%	22%	11%
Liverpool	100%	43%	17%	7%
Man United	69%	32%	14%	6%
Tottenham	64%	31%	14%	6%
Juventus	36%	19%	10%	5%
Roma	65%	26%	10%	4%
Chelsea	32%	16%	8%	3%
Paris SG	13%	6%	3%	1%
Sevilla	31%	10%	3%	<1%
Shakhtar	35%	9%	2%	<1%
Besiktas	20%	5%	1%	<1%
Porto	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Basel	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

CL: Round of 16

Updated probabilities for teams to reach each round

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	70%	47%	30%	18%
Barcelona	68%	46%	29%	18%
Man City	100%	59%	33%	17%
Bayern	80%	44%	23%	11%
Man United	69%	33%	15%	7%
Tottenham	64%	31%	14%	6%
Juventus	36%	20%	10%	5%
Liverpool	67%	29%	12%	5%
Roma	65%	27%	10%	4%
Chelsea	32%	16%	8%	4%
Paris SG	30%	15%	7%	3%
Sevilla	31%	10%	3%	<1%
Shakhtar	35%	10%	3%	<1%
Porto	33%	9%	2%	<1%
Besiktas	20%	5%	1%	<1%
Basel	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%