CL: Clinching scenarios in Matchday 6

 

Champions League
 

Clinching scenarios

• Atletico clinch Top24 if they win against Slovan Bratislava and Arsenal draw (or win) against Monaco (75%) 
• Lille clinch Top24 if they win against Sturm Graz (72%)
• Arsenal clinch Top24 if they win against Monaco (69%)
• Bayern clinch Top24 if they win against Shakhtar (65%)
• Leverkusen clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Inter (64%)
• Milan clinch Top24 if they win against Crvena Zvezda and Salzburg and Paris SG do not draw  (59%)
• Sporting clinch Top24 if they win against Brugge (45%)
• Dortmund clinch Top16 if they win against Barcelona (40%)
• Benfica clinch Top24 if they win against Bologna and RB Leipzig draw (or win) against Aston Villa (40%)
• Inter clinch Top16 if they win against Leverkusen (36%)
• Brest clinch Top24 if they win against PSV (34%)
• Man City clinch Top24 if they win against Juventus and Shakhtar and Bayern do not draw  (34%)
• Aston Villa clinch Top24 if they win against RB Leipzig (28%)
• Barcelona clinch Top16 if they win against Dortmund and RB Leipzig draw (or win) against Aston Villa (26%)
• PSV clinch Top24 if they win against Brest and Celtic win against Dinamo Zagreb (18%)
• Monaco clinch Top24 if they win against Arsenal (13%)
• Celtic clinch Top24 if they win against Dinamo Zagreb and Salzburg win against Paris SG (7%)
• Atalanta clinch Top 16 if they win against Real Madrid and Milan draw against Crvena Zvezda (7%)
• Juventus clinch Top24 if they win against Man City and Young Boys win against Stuttgart (3%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	15	Liverpool	21	19-6	100%	>99.99%	98.2%	99.58%	71%	46%	29%	14%
2	13	Inter	19	14-5	100%	99.50%	89%	97.4%	68%	43%	26%	13%
3	12	Dortmund	18	23-14	100%	98.7%	78%	90%	43%	17%	6%	3.0%
4	10	Arsenal	17	14-4	>99.99%	97.8%	76%	94%	64%	40%	24%	12%
5	11	Atalanta	17	17-8	100%	96.0%	61%	87%	51%	26%	13%	6%
6	12	Barcelona	16	23-9	100%	96.1%	68%	90%	53%	28%	14%	7%
7	9	Milan	16	13-9	99.66%	87%	41%	74%	32%	13%	4.7%	2.3%
8	9	Bayern	15	25-11	99.92%	92%	49%	83%	48%	25%	12%	6%
9	10	Leverkusen	15	18-9	99.97%	89%	42%	79%	43%	21%	10%	4.8%
10	9	Atletico	15	17-10	99.84%	86%	36%	71%	31%	12%	4.4%	2.2%
11	10	Sporting	15	14-9	99.83%	82%	35%	74%	36%	16%	7%	3.3%
12	10	Lille	15	11-8	99.80%	79%	27%	63%	24%	9%	2.8%	1.4%
13	8	Man City	14	20-14	97.6%	63%	15%	78%	51%	33%	20%	10%
14	10	Aston Villa	14	10-5	99.85%	73%	24%	60%	22%	8%	2.3%	1.2%
15	10	Brest	14	12-12	99.33%	59%	15%	41%	9%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
16	9	Benfica	13	13-10	97.6%	52%	10%	51%	18%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
17	10	Monaco	13	15-13	99.51%	49%	9%	49%	16%	5%	1.5%	< 1%
18	8	Juventus	12	12-7	94%	47%	9%	56%	24%	11%	4.2%	2.1%
19	8	PSV	12	14-10	94%	44%	7%	51%	20%	7%	2.6%	1.3%
20	8	Celtic	12	17-15	95%	44%	6%	34%	8%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
21	6	Real Madrid	12	15-13	92%	29%	1.4%	62%	34%	19%	10%	5%
22	7	Feyenoord	11	14-17	83%	19%	2.1%	33%	9%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
23	4	Stuttgart	10	9-13	62%	4.5%	< 1%	22%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
24	7	Brugge	10	6-12	57%	6%	< 1%	17%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	4	Paris SG	9	8-9	53%	5%	< 1%	31%	15%	7%	3.2%	1.6%
26	7	Dinamo Zagreb	9	13-19	43%	3.1%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	4	Shakhtar	7	7-18	9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	3	Crvena Zvezda	6	13-24	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	3	Girona	6	9-20	5%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	0	RB Leipzig	5	8-13	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	4	Sparta Praha	5	8-20	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Sturm Graz	4	7-14	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	1	Bologna	4	4-12	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	3	Salzburg	4	5-20	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Young Boys	3	3-24	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Slovan Bratislava	0	6-23	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	13-15	14	18-11	17	19-4
5%	11	12-19	14	15-11	17	17-8
25%	10	7-10	13	17-10	16	19-8
50%	10	8-16	13	15-12	16	16-9
75%	9	15-19	13	15-15	16	14-11
95%	8	12-18	12	15-12	15	15-8
99%	8	8-19	12	15-15	15	15-13

 

PL: Liverpool 74% favorites to win the league

In the simulations, Liverpool finish on average eight points ahead of Arsenal.

Hot Teams
Chelsea: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Brentford: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Bournemouth: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Fulham: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Man City: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 5.3 less than expected
Tottenham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected
Newcastle: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 less than expected
Everton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
35	Liverpool	84.4	+46	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.86%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%
29	Arsenal	76.4	+40	< 1%	99.91%	99.75%	99.24%	97.0%	14%	< 1%	< 1%	99.21%
27	Man City	75.1	+33	< 1%	99.82%	99.54%	98.7%	95.3%	9%	< 1%	1.2%	98.6%
31	Chelsea	71.4	+31	< 1%	99.06%	97.9%	95.0%	86%	3.3%	< 1%	4.7%	95%
25	Aston Villa	58.0	+2	< 1%	55%	41%	25%	6%	< 1%	10%	30%	25%
24	Brighton	56.7	+4	< 1%	48%	34%	19%	4.1%	< 1%	11%	28%	18%
20	Tottenham	56.6	+20	< 1%	50%	36%	21%	4.6%	< 1%	12%	26%	32%
20	Newcastle	56.1	+4	< 1%	44%	31%	16%	3.1%	< 1%	15%	28%	16%
25	Forest	52.4	-6	< 1%	21%	13%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	16%	6%
23	Fulham	52.1	-3	< 1%	20%	12%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	15%	4.8%
21	Bournemouth	51.9	-3	< 1%	19%	11%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	14%	4.8%
23	Brentford	51.2	-3	< 1%	17%	10%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	13%	4.1%
19	Man United	51.2	+1	< 1%	17%	10%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	12%	13%
18	West Ham	48.1	-12	1.7%	7%	3.4%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%	5%	1.2%
15	Crystal Palace	44.2	-10	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	3.8%	< 1%
14	Everton	40.1	-19	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
8	Wolves	37.1	-22	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Leicester	36.1	-26	46%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Ipswich	28.1	-36	91%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	Southampton	24.5	-42	96.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

PL: Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton relegated in a third of the simulations

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
35	Liverpool	84.4	+46	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.82%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%
28	Arsenal	77.2	+41	< 1%	99.92%	99.77%	99.28%	97.3%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	99.26%
26	Man City	76.0	+34	< 1%	99.85%	99.58%	98.8%	95.8%	11%	< 1%	1.1%	98.7%
28	Chelsea	69.6	+30	< 1%	97.8%	95.3%	90%	77%	1.8%	< 1%	9%	89%
20	Tottenham	58.2	+21	< 1%	60%	45%	28%	9%	< 1%	12%	28%	38%
20	Newcastle	57.4	+6	< 1%	52%	37%	21%	6%	< 1%	15%	31%	20%
22	Aston Villa	57.3	+2	< 1%	50%	36%	21%	6%	< 1%	11%	29%	21%
23	Brighton	57.2	+4	< 1%	50%	36%	20%	6%	< 1%	11%	29%	20%
19	Man United	53.1	+3	< 1%	26%	16%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	11%	17%	16%
22	Fulham	52.1	-4	< 1%	19%	11%	4.9%	1.0%	< 1%	9%	15%	4.7%
18	Bournemouth	50.4	-4	< 1%	14%	8%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	11%	3.0%
22	Forest	50.3	-8	< 1%	13%	7%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	11%	2.8%
20	Brentford	49.7	-5	1.1%	12%	6%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	9%	2.6%
15	West Ham	47.0	-12	3.2%	4.9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	4.1%	< 1%
14	Crystal Palace	44.1	-11	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	3.8%	< 1%
14	Everton	40.2	-19	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
8	Wolves	38.0	-21	34%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Leicester	36.3	-27	47%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Ipswich	29.4	-35	88%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	Southampton	25.0	-42	96.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Wolves	45%	24%	31%	Bournemouth
Everton	20%	21%	59%	Liverpool
Aston Villa	72%	17%	12%	Southampton
Brentford	41%	24%	35%	Newcastle
Crystal Palace	23%	22%	56%	Man City
Man United	58%	21%	21%	Forest
Ipswich	34%	24%	42%	Bournemouth
Leicester	35%	24%	41%	Brighton
Fulham	25%	23%	53%	Arsenal
Tottenham	45%	24%	31%	Chelsea
West Ham	55%	22%	23%	Wolves

Most likely combo of teams in CL

19%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
12%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
12%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
11%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
4.6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.5%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham
2.8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Liverpool, Man City
2.5%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

36%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
25%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
14%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
4.8%	Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton
4.6%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
2.5%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
2.2%	Ipswich, Southampton, West Ham
1.8%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves
1.2%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves

PL: Liverpool favorites after winning against Man City

Liverpool are favorites after winning against Man City and have more than a 8-point gap down to Arsenal in average points in the simulations. Chelsea are favorites to join the top-3 clubs to CL and Tottenham finish top-5 in 35% of the simulations.

Hot Teams
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Chelsea: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Forest: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Brentford: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 more than expected
Bournemouth: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Man City: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 6.5 less than expected
Aston Villa: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Leicester: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Everton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Tottenham: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.2 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
34	Liverpool	85.1	+46	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.83%	75%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%
25	Arsenal	76.5	+40	< 1%	99.85%	99.58%	98.8%	96.1%	14%	< 1%	1.0%	98.8%
23	Man City	75.4	+33	< 1%	99.76%	99.37%	98.2%	94%	10%	< 1%	1.5%	98.2%
25	Chelsea	68.5	+27	< 1%	96.3%	93%	85%	69%	1.3%	1.5%	12%	84%
20	Tottenham	59.6	+22	< 1%	67%	53%	35%	14%	< 1%	11%	25%	44%
23	Brighton	58.4	+6	< 1%	56%	42%	25%	9%	< 1%	12%	28%	24%
19	Newcastle	57.5	+6	< 1%	51%	36%	21%	7%	< 1%	16%	29%	20%
19	Aston Villa	56.2	+1	< 1%	42%	28%	15%	4.9%	< 1%	12%	23%	16%
19	Man United	53.7	+4	< 1%	28%	17%	8%	2.2%	< 1%	12%	16%	16%
22	Forest	50.7	-7	< 1%	14%	8%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	14%	3.1%
19	Fulham	50.6	-5	< 1%	14%	7%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	10%	3.0%
20	Brentford	50.6	-4	< 1%	14%	8%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	11%	3.4%
15	Bournemouth	48.8	-5	1.7%	9%	4.8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	7%	1.8%
15	West Ham	48.3	-10	2.0%	7%	3.7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	4.4%	7%	1.3%
11	Crystal Palace	42.6	-12	10%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	3.2%	< 1%
8	Wolves	39.0	-18	26%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Everton	38.9	-23	27%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Leicester	34.7	-29	56%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%
9	Ipswich	30.7	-34	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	Southampton	25.8	-39	95%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Newcastle vs Liverpool (2.2%)	Home Win (30%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (46%)
Liverpool	68%	73%	81%
Arsenal	17%	15%	11%
Man City	12%	10%	7%

	Liverpool			Arsenal			Man City			Chelsea
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
98	1.5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
97	2.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
96	3.6%	1.2%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
95	5%	1.7%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	8%	2.3%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-
93	10%	2.9%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	14%	3.6%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	-
91	18%	4.3%	99.3%	< 1%	< 1%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	23%	4.9%	98.8%	1.1%	< 1%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	82%	< 1%	< 1%	75%
89	29%	6%	97.8%	1.8%	< 1%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	80%
88	35%	6%	96.4%	2.9%	1.0%	72%	1.6%	< 1%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	69%
87	41%	6%	94%	4.3%	1.4%	66%	2.6%	< 1%	63%	< 1%	< 1%	65%
86	48%	7%	91%	6%	2.0%	58%	4.0%	1.4%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	59%
85	55%	7%	87%	9%	2.6%	51%	6%	1.9%	48%	< 1%	< 1%	49%
84	61%	6%	82%	12%	3.2%	43%	8%	2.5%	40%	< 1%	< 1%	39%
83	67%	6%	75%	16%	3.9%	36%	11%	3.2%	32%	1.1%	< 1%	30%
82	73%	6%	68%	20%	4.5%	28%	15%	3.9%	25%	1.7%	< 1%	24%
81	78%	5%	59%	26%	5%	21%	20%	4.6%	19%	2.5%	< 1%	17%
80	83%	4.5%	50%	31%	6%	16%	25%	5%	14%	3.7%	1.2%	12%
79	86%	3.9%	42%	38%	6%	12%	31%	6%	9%	5%	1.6%	8%
78	90%	3.2%	32%	44%	6%	8%	37%	6%	6%	7%	2.0%	5%
77	92%	2.6%	24%	51%	7%	5%	44%	7%	3.9%	10%	2.6%	3%
76	94%	2.1%	17%	57%	7%	3.1%	50%	7%	2.3%	13%	3.2%	1.6%
75	95.9%	1.6%	11%	64%	6%	1.8%	57%	7%	1.3%	17%	3.8%	< 1%
74	97.2%	1.2%	8%	69%	6%	< 1%	64%	6%	< 1%	21%	4.4%	< 1%
73	98.1%	< 1%	4%	75%	5%	< 1%	70%	6%	< 1%	26%	5%	< 1%
72	98.7%	< 1%	3%	80%	4.8%	< 1%	75%	6%	< 1%	32%	6%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Wolves	45%	24%	31%	Bournemouth
Ipswich	34%	24%	42%	Crystal Palace
Leicester	38%	24%	38%	West Ham
Everton	50%	23%	27%	Wolves
Newcastle	30%	24%	46%	Liverpool
Man City	78%	14%	9%	Forest
Southampton	20%	21%	59%	Chelsea
Arsenal	69%	17%	13%	Man United
Aston Villa	56%	22%	22%	Brentford
Fulham	45%	24%	31%	Brighton
Bournemouth	37%	24%	38%	Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams in CL

21%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
12%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
10%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
4.4%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.1%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham
3.1%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.7%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.3%	Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.2%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

37%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
15%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
15%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
6%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
5%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
5%	Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton
2.1%	Crystal Palace, Leicester, Southampton
2.0%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves
1.6%	Everton, Ipswich, Leicester
1.4%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves