Arsenal top at Christmas

Both Man City and Aston Villa are in a winning streak, with 15 points in the last five games. 

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 6.8 more than expected
Sunderland: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Leeds: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Fulham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Bournemouth: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Wolves: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Burnley: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Brighton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected
Tottenham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
39	Arsenal	82.9	+46	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.86%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%
37	Man City	75.2	+40	< 1%	99.85%	99.59%	98.8%	96.1%	17%	< 1%	1.1%	98.7%
36	Aston Villa	69.0	+15	< 1%	97.3%	94%	88%	75%	2.4%	1.2%	7%	91%
29	Liverpool	66.0	+16	< 1%	93%	87%	77%	57%	< 1%	3.0%	17%	76%
29	Chelsea	64.5	+22	< 1%	90%	83%	70%	47%	< 1%	5%	21%	69%
26	Crystal Palace	57.1	+4	< 1%	47%	33%	18%	8%	< 1%	8%	17%	51%
26	Man United	55.6	+4	< 1%	37%	25%	13%	5%	< 1%	12%	25%	12%
23	Newcastle	54.6	+5	< 1%	32%	20%	10%	3.8%	< 1%	19%	25%	10%
24	Brighton	54.3	+4	< 1%	30%	19%	9%	3.4%	< 1%	12%	21%	9%
24	Everton	52.3	-3	< 1%	18%	10%	4.4%	1.5%	< 1%	9%	15%	4.3%
23	Brentford	52.2	+0	< 1%	19%	11%	4.6%	1.5%	< 1%	9%	16%	4.4%
22	Tottenham	50.9	+3	1.4%	14%	8%	3.3%	1.1%	< 1%	8%	13%	3.2%
22	Bournemouth	50.4	-4	1.8%	11%	6%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	10%	2.3%
23	Fulham	49.0	-7	3.2%	7%	3.7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	7%	1.4%
27	Sunderland	45.3	-17	10%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	1.4%	< 1%
18	Forest	44.3	-14	14%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	2.7%	8%
19	Leeds	41.2	-19	29%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	West Ham	37.5	-24	58%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%
11	Burnley	33.7	-26	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Wolves	21.0	-45	99.81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	79%	30%	37%	24%
Man City	17%	17%	31%	10%
Aston Villa	2.4%	3.6%		28%
Liverpool	< 1%	12%		5%
Chelsea	< 1%	10%	17%	4.1%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	4.7%	2.9%	40%
Man United	< 1%	2.1%
Newcastle	< 1%	4.1%	12%	1.4%
Brighton	< 1%	2.1%
Everton	< 1%	2.5%
Brentford	< 1%	2.9%
Tottenham	< 1%	2.0%		< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	1.3%
Fulham		1.7%
Sunderland		< 1%
Forest		1.7%		8%
Leeds		< 1%
West Ham		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%

 

Conference League Last 24

Below are the probabilities for the knockout phase of Conference League. 

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	16	Strasbourg	16	11-5	100%	73%	41%	29%	16%
2	14	Rakow	14	9-2	100%	47%	15%	6%	1.9%
3	13	AEK	13	14-7	100%	60%	30%	9%	3.1%
4	13	Sparta Praha	13	10-3	100%	64%	34%	11%	4.2%
5	13	Rayo Vallecano	13	13-7	100%	78%	50%	21%	9%
6	13	Shakhtar	13	10-5	100%	65%	32%	10%	3.2%
7	13	Mainz	13	7-3	100%	55%	31%	20%	9%
8	12	Larnaca	12	7-1	100%	37%	11%	4.3%	1.1%
9	11	Lausanne	11	6-3	59%	16%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%
10	10	Crystal Palace	10	11-6	96.6%	82%	65%	55%	40%
11	10	Lech	10	12-8	83%	27%	11%	2.3%	< 1%
12	10	Samsunspor	10	10-6	82%	26%	10%	2.1%	< 1%
13	10	Celje	10	8-7	78%	26%	9%	1.8%	< 1%
14	10	Alkmaar	10	7-7	89%	47%	24%	8%	3.0%
15	9	Fiorentina	9	8-5	76%	44%	22%	15%	7%
16	9	Rijeka	9	5-2	29%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	9	Jagiellonia	9	5-4	50%	17%	5%	2.1%	< 1%
18	8	Omonia	8	5-4	46%	14%	3.7%	1.3%	< 1%
19	8	Noah	8	6-7	18%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	8	Drita	8	4-8	15%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	7	Kuopio	7	6-5	21%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Shkendija	7	4-5	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	Zrinjski Mostar	7	8-10	15%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	7	Sigma Olomouc	7	7-9	29%	8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	95.9%	19.4	12.56	25.83
ITA	38%	15.92	9	24.64
GER	36%	15.85	9.71	24.21
POL	17%	15.2	12	22.5
POR	7%	13.67	8.4	23
ESP	4.2%	13.61	8.56	20.88
FRA	1.3%	12.68	7.44	20.36
GRE	< 1%	10.88	7.6	19.7
CYP	< 1%	10.95	9.13	19.13
CZE	< 1%	9.59	6.7	17.8
DEN	< 1%	9.91	7.63	17
TUR	< 1%	9.33	5.8	17.3
NED	< 1%	8.89	5.58	16.17
BEL	< 1%	7.07	4.5	16

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 254 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.3%	14%	30%	32%	17%	4.3%
Chance if	< 1%	3.5%	18%	47%	76%	94%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 230 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.2%	10%	28%	35%	21%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	1.9%	12%	37%	67%	89%	98%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 229 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	15%	38%	32%	12%	2.1%
Chance if	3.7%	18%	49%	81%	97%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 226 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	20%	41%	28%	9%	1.4%
Chance if	7%	26%	59%	88%	98.9%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 167 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	< 1%	6%	22%	38%	28%	6%
Chance if	< 1%	2.4%	13%	35%	62%	83%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 142 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	28%	54%	18%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	15%	48%	83%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 140 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	72%	26%	2.3%
Chance if	7%	39%	88%

Number of finalists from GER; 135 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	41%	42%	15%	2.1%
Chance if	16%	40%	71%	93%

Number of finalists from ITA; 133 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	45%	41%	12%	1.4%
Chance if	19%	46%	78%	96%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from GER; 114 mbit

n	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	2.2%	17%	44%	35%	1.9%
Chance if	1.8%	10%	29%	56%	82%

 

Conference League prior last matchday

Six or seven points will required to reach the knockout stage. Thirteen teams have clinched knockout stage and another nine team have almost surely (>95%) clinched knockout stage. The remaining two points are fought for by Mostar, Lincoln, Rijecka and a few other countries.

Clinching Scenarios

• Shakhtar clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Rijeka (87%)
• Rayo Vallecano clinch Top8 if they win against Drita (85%)
• Sparta Praha clinch Top8 if they win against Aberdeen (78%)
• Noah clinch knockout stage if Larnaca win against Shkendija (77%)
• Lausanne clinch knockout stage if Larnaca win against Shkendija (77%)
• Mainz clinch Top8 if they win against Samsunspor (69%)
• Jagiellonia clinch knockout stage if Rapid Wien draw (or win) against Zrinjski Mostar (62%)
• AEK clinch Top8 if they win against Craiova (62%)
• Sigma Olomouc clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Lech and Strasbourg win against Breidablik (61%)
• Lech clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Sigma Olomouc (57%)
• Drita clinch knockout stage if Sigma Olomouc and Lech do not draw  and AEK win against Craiova (47%)
• Zrinjski Mostar clinch knockout stage if they win against Rapid Wien (38%)
• Craiova clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against AEK and Legia win against Lincoln (33%)
• Rakow clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Omonia and Omonia and Rakow do not draw  (32%)
• Rijeka clinch knockout stage if they win against Sparta Praha and Legia draw (or win) against Lincoln (25%)
• Shkendija clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Larnaca (23%)
• Samsunspor clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Mainz and Mainz and Samsunspor do not draw  (13%)
• Lincoln clinch knockout stage if they win against Legia (5%)
• Kuopio clinch knockout stage if they win against Crystal Palace (2%)
• Breidablik clinch knockout stage if they win against Strasbourg and Rapid Wien draw (or win) against Zrinjski Mostar (2%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	13	Strasbourg	16	11-4	100%	100%	100%	100%	81%	52%	31%	16%
2	12	Shakhtar	15	13-7	100%	100%	94%	98.8%	58%	23%	8%	2.4%
3	10	Sparta Praha	14	14-7	100%	>99.99%	91%	98.4%	62%	28%	11%	3.7%
4	10	AEK	13	13-6	100%	>99.99%	65%	93%	51%	22%	7%	2.4%
5	10	Rayo Vallecano	13	13-8	100%	99.91%	85%	97.6%	68%	39%	18%	8%
6	10	Mainz	13	8-5	100%	99.88%	69%	95.5%	67%	41%	21%	9%
7	9	Crystal Palace	12	13-5	100%	99.93%	89%	99.59%	88%	72%	59%	43%
8	9	Larnaca	12	8-1	100%	98.3%	66%	90%	37%	12%	3.4%	< 1%
9	11	Rakow	12	9-3	100%	100%	51%	89%	42%	16%	4.8%	1.4%
10	9	Fiorentina	12	9-4	100%	95%	36%	92%	59%	35%	19%	9%
11	9	Celje	12	10-7	100%	95.8%	25%	77%	25%	7%	1.6%	< 1%
12	9	Alkmaar	12	8-7	100%	85%	11%	81%	39%	18%	7%	2.3%
13	10	Samsunspor	10	10-5	100%	99.95%	16%	72%	25%	8%	1.8%	< 1%
14	8	Omonia	9	7-5	>99.99%	69%	< 1%	63%	19%	6%	1.5%	< 1%
15	7	Lech	8	11-8	99.85%	43%	< 1%	57%	18%	6%	1.4%	< 1%
16	8	Lausanne	8	6-5	>99.99%	43%	< 1%	50%	11%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
17	8	Noah	8	7-7	>99.99%	29%	< 1%	26%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	8	Jagiellonia	8	6-6	>99.99%	33%	< 1%	61%	21%	7%	2.2%	< 1%
19	7	Sigma Olomouc	8	8-9	99.23%	42%	< 1%	46%	11%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
20	8	Drita	8	4-7	99.96%	7%	< 1%	19%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	6	Zrinjski Mostar	7	8-10	62%	16%	< 1%	14%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Craiova	7	5-7	97.2%	17%	< 1%	42%	11%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	Shkendija	7	5-7	96.9%	9%	< 1%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	7	Lincoln	7	6-13	74%	4.0%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	5	Rijeka	6	7-7	42%	12%	< 1%	16%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	3	Dynamo Kyiv	6	9-10	7%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	3	Legia	6	8-9	8%	< 1%	< 1%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	6	Kuopio	6	4-6	8%	1.4%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	5	Breidablik	5	5-11	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	3	Haecken	4	5-7	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	3	Slovan Bratislava	4	7-12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Hamrun	3	3-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	7	13-11	10	8-4	12	17-6
5%	7	9-11	10	6-5	12	14-5
25%	7	7-11	9	7-4	12	11-4
50%	7	6-13	9	8-7	12	9-3
75%	7	6-16	9	8-9	12	10-6
95%	6	7-7	8	8-8	11	11-5
99%	6	6-7	8	5-5	11	8-4

 

PL: crowded CL race.

Looking more and more like a three-horse race for the title, while the half the league are fighting over a spot in CL.

Coming weekend two important matches for the CL race, when Newcastle host Chelsea and Tottenham host Liverpool.

Important matches for CL race
Newcastle vs Chelsea (3.4%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Chelsea	60%	67%	77%
Newcastle	16%	9%	7%
Tottenham vs Liverpool (3%)	Home Win (37%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (39%)
Liverpool	56%	63%	73%
Tottenham	8%	4.4%	2.8%

 

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 7.1 more than expected
Sunderland: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Everton: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected
Forest: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Man City: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Burnley: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 5.3 less than expected
Bournemouth: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Wolves: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Brentford: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 less than expected
Tottenham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
36	Arsenal	81.7	+46	< 1%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.93%	99.72%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	99.92%
34	Man City	74.6	+39	< 1%	99.68%	99.23%	98.1%	95.1%	19%	< 1%	1.7%	97.9%
33	Aston Villa	68.0	+15	< 1%	95%	90%	83%	69%	2.5%	1.9%	9%	87%
28	Chelsea	64.7	+22	< 1%	88%	81%	69%	50%	< 1%	6%	21%	68%
26	Liverpool	64.4	+15	< 1%	86%	78%	65%	46%	< 1%	4.7%	23%	64%
26	Crystal Palace	58.6	+8	< 1%	54%	41%	26%	14%	< 1%	7%	16%	57%
26	Man United	56.4	+4	< 1%	39%	27%	16%	8%	< 1%	12%	24%	15%
23	Brighton	55.6	+5	< 1%	35%	23%	13%	6%	< 1%	11%	22%	12%
22	Newcastle	55.1	+5	< 1%	32%	21%	12%	5%	< 1%	17%	23%	11%
24	Everton	53.3	-3	< 1%	20%	12%	6%	2.5%	< 1%	9%	15%	6%
22	Tottenham	52.3	+4	< 1%	18%	11%	5%	2.2%	< 1%	8%	14%	5%
21	Bournemouth	51.4	-3	1.3%	13%	7%	3.5%	1.3%	< 1%	7%	10%	3.4%
20	Brentford	50.8	-2	1.5%	12%	6%	2.9%	1.1%	< 1%	9%	11%	2.8%
20	Fulham	47.7	-8	4.9%	4.4%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	5%	< 1%
18	Forest	45.4	-13	10%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	3.0%	8%
26	Sunderland	44.9	-18	11%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	1.0%	< 1%
16	Leeds	39.5	-22	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	West Ham	38.0	-22	51%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%
10	Burnley	33.4	-27	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Wolves	22.2	-43	99.52%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	77%	30%	39%	25%
Man City	19%	17%	23%	10%
Aston Villa	2.5%	3.6%		28%
Chelsea	< 1%	10%	20%	4.2%
Liverpool	< 1%	12%		5%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	4.7%	3.4%	43%
Man United	< 1%	2.1%
Brighton	< 1%	2.1%
Newcastle	< 1%	4.1%	10%	1.4%
Everton	< 1%	2.5%
Tottenham	< 1%	2.0%		< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	1.3%
Brentford	< 1%	2.9%	2.7%
Fulham		1.7%	2.0%
Forest		1.7%		8%
Sunderland		< 1%
Leeds		< 1%
West Ham		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%