Champions League: Three English teams in top in projected table.

In the simulations three English teams finish in the top most often and Premier League win the bonus spot in >95% of the simulations.

Champions League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	9	Liverpool	18	14-7	99.85%	95.9%	77%	93%	59%	33%	17%	8%
2	7	Man City	17	22-7	99.86%	96.7%	79%	96.7%	77%	58%	43%	21%
3	7	Arsenal	16	20-5	99.59%	93%	64%	91%	62%	39%	23%	11%
4	6	Dortmund	16	24-11	99.57%	94%	69%	88%	47%	21%	9%	4.3%
5	7	Leverkusen	16	13-3	99.48%	92%	62%	89%	56%	31%	16%	8%
6	7	Inter	16	11-3	99.0%	89%	57%	88%	57%	33%	18%	9%
7	9	Aston Villa	16	13-6	99.45%	90%	60%	80%	34%	12%	3.6%	1.8%
8	6	Real Madrid	15	19-10	98.7%	85%	50%	86%	56%	34%	19%	9%
9	6	Barcelona	15	17-11	97.5%	80%	43%	76%	39%	18%	7%	3.6%
10	7	Sporting	14	10-6	95.2%	70%	30%	67%	30%	12%	4.6%	2.3%
11	4	Stuttgart	14	10-9	93%	65%	24%	58%	22%	8%	2.4%	1.2%
12	3	Bayern	13	23-12	95%	70%	29%	73%	40%	21%	10%	5.0%
13	5	Atalanta	13	11-4	94%	62%	22%	63%	29%	12%	4.8%	2.4%
14	6	Lille	13	11-8	93%	61%	21%	53%	18%	6%	1.5%	< 1%
15	7	Monaco	13	15-13	92%	56%	18%	53%	19%	7%	2.0%	< 1%
16	6	Juventus	13	13-11	90%	57%	20%	60%	27%	11%	4.2%	2.1%
17	3	Milan	12	19-12	88%	51%	12%	51%	20%	7%	2.5%	1.2%
18	7	Brest	12	17-13	88%	50%	15%	39%	9%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
19	6	Benfica	12	14-14	83%	41%	11%	43%	15%	4.8%	1.4%	< 1%
20	6	Feyenoord	12	12-13	84%	41%	10%	37%	10%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
21	4	Paris SG	11	13-11	78%	37%	9%	53%	27%	14%	6%	3.2%
22	2	PSV	11	11-11	71%	28%	4.4%	34%	12%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%
23	4	Celtic	11	14-17	70%	27%	4.9%	21%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	3	Atletico	11	8-13	67%	24%	3.7%	34%	13%	4.6%	1.5%	< 1%
25	4	Sparta Praha	10	9-16	52%	14%	2.0%	18%	4.4%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
26	3	Girona	8	13-15	37%	8%	< 1%	13%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	0	RB Leipzig	8	6-8	34%	6%	< 1%	17%	7%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
28	3	Brugge	8	9-16	29%	5%	< 1%	9%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	4	Dinamo Zagreb	8	9-17	32%	6%	< 1%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	1	Bologna	7	6-9	25%	4.4%	< 1%	10%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	1	Shakhtar	5	5-12	7%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Young Boys	4	4-17	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	Crvena Zvezda	4	8-22	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Sturm Graz	3	5-16	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Salzburg	3	5-20	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Slovan Bratislava	3	3-22	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	12-12	14	15-11	17	18-8
5%	11	14-20	14	12-19	17	15-10
25%	10	11-13	13	12-9	16	21-14
50%	10	13-21	13	11-12	16	13-10
75%	9	7-9	12	9-5	15	20-13
95%	8	13-15	12	10-13	14	18-7
99%	8	7-13	11	15-14	14	13-8

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	95.2%	19.67	10.36	26.93
POR	32%	15.26	6.6	28.1
ITA	25%	15.04	7.5	23.63
GER	20%	14.81	7.63	22.56
ESP	12%	14.02	6.57	23.36
BEL	6%	13.37	6	25.4
CYP	5%	12.87	5.67	23.67
FRA	1.7%	12.1	5.93	20.93
CZE	1.3%	11.9	6.5	21.7
GRE	< 1%	10.75	4.63	21.25
TUR	< 1%	10.49	4.7	19.7
SWE	< 1%	10.57	5.75	19.63
NED	< 1%	10.1	4.5	19.33
UKR	< 1%	7.2	2.5	23.25
NOR	< 1%	9.73	4.88	17.63
DEN	< 1%	8.76	3.75	16.25

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 285 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	15%	37%	33%	13%	2.0%
Chance	< 1%	12%	45%	83%	98.2%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POR; 239 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	< 1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	6%
Chance	< 1%	< 1%	5%	28%	62%	87%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 221 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	< 1%	6%	21%	34%	26%	10%	1.7%
Chance	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	14%	40%	71%	92%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 219 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	44%	41%	13%	1.7%
Chance	9%	38%	80%	98.7%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 202 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.3%	9%	24%	32%	23%	8%	1.5%
Chance	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	13%	36%	66%	89%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 195 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	< 1%
Chance	1.1%	6%	22%	51%	83%	97%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 178 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	16%	37%	32%	13%	2.6%
Chance	1.1%	7%	24%	55%	84%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 159 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.8%	15%	32%	32%	15%	2.9%
Chance	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	12%	38%	72%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 150 mbit

n	3	4	5	6	7	8
Probability	4.5%	18%	35%	31%	10%	< 1%
Chance	< 1%	3.6%	16%	38%	63%	84%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 145 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	19%	39%	30%	10%	1.5%
Chance	< 1%	3.2%	16%	46%	83%

 

PL: Chelsea vs Newcastle in Sunday clash

On Sunday Chelsea host Newcastle in an important match for the CL race.

Hot Teams
Forest: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 more than expected
Leicester: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Chelsea: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 more than expected
Everton: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 more than expected
Aston Villa: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 more than expected

Cold Teams
Crystal Palace: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Wolves: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 less than expected
Newcastle: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected
Ipswich: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
20	Man City	88.1	+57	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.92%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
17	Arsenal	78.8	+41	< 1%	99.87%	99.63%	98.9%	96.7%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	98.9%
21	Liverpool	77.8	+38	< 1%	99.80%	99.41%	98.4%	95.4%	10%	< 1%	1.4%	98.3%
14	Chelsea	64.7	+22	< 1%	86%	77%	63%	41%	< 1%	4.6%	28%	61%
17	Aston Villa	62.4	+11	< 1%	77%	64%	47%	26%	< 1%	10%	28%	46%
13	Tottenham	60.6	+19	< 1%	70%	56%	38%	19%	< 1%	10%	25%	46%
12	Newcastle	58.7	+8	< 1%	58%	42%	26%	12%	< 1%	14%	30%	25%
15	Brighton	54.7	+1	< 1%	34%	21%	11%	4.2%	< 1%	13%	20%	10%
11	Man United	53.2	-1	< 1%	26%	15%	8%	2.7%	< 1%	13%	15%	14%
11	Fulham	50.8	-3	1.3%	16%	9%	4.1%	1.3%	< 1%	8%	12%	3.9%
10	Brentford	48.1	-7	3.3%	9%	4.7%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	7%	1.9%
11	Bournemouth	47.9	-8	3.3%	8%	4.1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	6%	1.6%
8	West Ham	47.6	-8	3.8%	8%	3.8%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	5.0%	7%	1.4%
13	Forest	46.1	-13	6%	4.7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	7%	< 1%
3	Crystal Palace	42.3	-10	15%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	3.9%	< 1%
8	Everton	42.2	-19	16%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	1.5%	< 1%
9	Leicester	40.0	-21	24%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	1.9%	< 1%
1	Wolves	35.5	-26	52%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Ipswich	30.5	-37	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
1	Southampton	25.5	-43	95%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

PL: Palace and Wolves with the weakest start of season

 

Hot Teams
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected
Chelsea: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 more than expected
Fulham: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected
Aston Villa: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected
Newcastle: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.0 more than expected

Cold Teams
Crystal Palace: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Man United: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.4 less than expected
Everton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.4 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
17	Man City	87.4	+58	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.89%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
17	Arsenal	80.7	+44	< 1%	99.94%	99.82%	99.44%	98.1%	20%	< 1%	< 1%	99.39%
18	Liverpool	76.8	+38	< 1%	99.69%	99.16%	97.7%	94%	9%	< 1%	2.0%	97.6%
14	Chelsea	65.6	+22	< 1%	89%	81%	68%	47%	< 1%	3.9%	25%	66%
12	Newcastle	60.7	+10	< 1%	70%	55%	37%	19%	< 1%	12%	31%	36%
14	Aston Villa	60.7	+9	< 1%	69%	55%	37%	18%	< 1%	12%	29%	37%
10	Tottenham	59.6	+17	< 1%	66%	51%	33%	16%	< 1%	10%	25%	42%
12	Brighton	52.6	-1	< 1%	25%	15%	7%	2.4%	< 1%	12%	16%	7%
11	Fulham	52.3	-1	< 1%	24%	14%	7%	2.3%	< 1%	10%	16%	6%
8	Man United	52.1	-2	< 1%	22%	13%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	12%	14%	13%
10	Brentford	49.0	-7	2.6%	12%	7%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	9%	2.7%
8	West Ham	48.4	-6	3.0%	10%	5%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	8%	2.1%
8	Bournemouth	45.8	-11	6%	5%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.7%	4.3%	< 1%
10	Forest	44.6	-14	9%	3.6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	6%	< 1%
3	Crystal Palace	43.5	-10	11%	2.9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.5%	4.8%	< 1%
5	Everton	40.6	-21	22%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%
6	Leicester	38.3	-22	33%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%
1	Wolves	36.1	-26	47%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Ipswich	31.8	-35	73%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
1	Southampton	27.0	-41	91%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	90%	53%	16%	1.7%	28%	6%	1.7%
Arsenal	55%	14%	1.7%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	35%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	36%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	9%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Aston Villa	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	21%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	1.8%	< 1%			< 1%
Man United	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brentford	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	1.5%
Bournemouth	< 1%
Forest	3.7%	< 1%			< 1%
Crystal Palace	3.9%	< 1%
Everton	< 1%
Leicester	1.8%	< 1%
Wolves	< 1%
Ipswich	< 1%
Southampton	1.0%	< 1%

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	>99.99%	>99.99%	92%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	68%
League cup winners	100%	86%	79%
Sixth team	99.63%	97.7%	3.7%
Seventh team	94%	70%	3.3%
Eighth team	66%	11%	2.8%

Simulated points for winner: 86 - 92
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 39
Most likely combo of teams in CL

14%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
13%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
13%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
5%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
4.8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
3.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.1%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
2.2%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

25%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
16%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
10%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
6%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
4.7%	Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton
3.9%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves
3.7%	Forest, Ipswich, Southampton
2.7%	Bournemouth, Ipswich, Southampton
2.6%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
2.0%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves

 

EL: Man United, Porto and Roma without wins

We notice that Man United, Porto or Roma win EL in 25% of the simulations, yet they have not won a match in the league phase of EL.

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	6	Tottenham	17	15-6	99.49%	95.6%	80%	94%	64%	41%	25%	13%
2	6	Lazio	16	21-9	99.23%	94%	75%	92%	60%	36%	21%	10%
3	6	Lyon	16	15-9	98.7%	91%	66%	85%	44%	20%	8%	4.2%
4	4	Bilbao	15	16-7	97.6%	88%	61%	86%	53%	31%	17%	8%
5	6	Anderlecht	15	12-7	97.5%	86%	56%	77%	34%	13%	4.8%	2.4%
6	4	Galatasaray	14	15-10	94%	78%	45%	74%	37%	17%	8%	3.8%
7	2	Man United	14	21-17	94%	77%	43%	78%	50%	30%	17%	9%
8	4	Frankfurt	14	15-11	95.7%	78%	42%	73%	37%	17%	7%	3.7%
9	4	Slavia Praha	14	16-13	94%	75%	41%	75%	43%	23%	12%	6%
10	3	Olympiakos	13	14-11	89%	66%	32%	63%	29%	12%	4.9%	2.4%
11	4	Hoffenheim	13	11-13	88%	60%	26%	60%	29%	13%	6%	2.8%
12	4	Ajax	12	14-6	88%	62%	27%	54%	20%	7%	2.1%	1.0%
13	4	Fenerbahce	12	9-5	85%	57%	25%	60%	30%	14%	6%	3.2%
14	1	Porto	12	18-16	83%	55%	22%	66%	43%	27%	17%	8%
15	1	Roma	12	9-7	82%	53%	20%	64%	41%	26%	15%	8%
16	4	Midtjylland	12	16-16	81%	51%	20%	45%	16%	5%	1.5%	< 1%
17	4	Bodoe Glimt	12	11-13	80%	48%	17%	43%	15%	4.6%	1.3%	< 1%
18	1	Sociedad	11	15-9	80%	50%	18%	58%	33%	18%	9%	4.7%
19	1	Nice	11	15-12	77%	47%	16%	50%	24%	11%	4.7%	2.3%
20	3	Braga	11	12-14	71%	40%	13%	43%	18%	8%	2.9%	1.4%
21	2	Twente	10	10-12	59%	28%	7%	29%	10%	3.5%	1.1%	< 1%
22	6	Steaua	10	12-15	62%	27%	7%	16%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	3	Alkmaar	10	15-19	59%	27%	7%	27%	9%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
24	3	Rangers	10	10-14	58%	25%	6%	27%	9%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
25	3	Malmoe	10	12-18	55%	24%	6%	21%	5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
26	1	St Gillis	9	12-12	53%	24%	6%	30%	13%	5%	2.0%	1.0%
27	2	Viktoria Plzen	9	11-13	50%	21%	5%	25%	9%	3.1%	1.0%	< 1%
28	0	PAOK	9	9-12	47%	17%	3.0%	22%	8%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
29	0	M Tel Aviv	8	9-12	37%	13%	2.1%	15%	4.7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
30	3	Elfsborg	8	7-10	37%	12%	2.0%	12%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	0	Karabakh Agdam	8	10-14	37%	13%	2.1%	15%	4.3%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Dynamo Kyiv	7	9-13	27%	7%	< 1%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	1	Razgrad	6	6-11	16%	3.6%	< 1%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Ferencvaros	6	6-13	15%	3.4%	< 1%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Besiktas	6	10-19	15%	3.4%	< 1%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	1	RFS	3	9-19	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	10-14	13	15-11	16	17-6
5%	10	12-12	13	14-13	16	16-10
25%	10	9-13	12	18-15	15	16-9
50%	9	10-10	12	5-4	15	10-7
75%	9	8-11	11	13-8	14	14-8
95%	8	13-15	11	11-11	14	12-11
99%	8	11-16	11	9-13	13	15-11

Europa Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	3	Chelsea	15	17-7	99.94%	98.8%	89%	99.10%	87%	71%	56%	28%
2	3	Fiorentina	13	19-4	99.41%	95%	76%	96.5%	78%	57%	37%	19%
3	0	Betis	12	13-4	98.2%	89%	58%	92%	69%	46%	27%	14%
4	3	Rapid Wien	12	14-7	97.9%	87%	57%	80%	35%	12%	3.0%	1.5%
5	3	Cercle Brugge	12	11-5	96.8%	83%	52%	80%	40%	16%	5%	2.5%
6	3	Heidenheim	12	11-9	95.8%	80%	47%	85%	58%	34%	17%	9%
7	3	Molde	12	13-14	96.0%	80%	47%	78%	39%	16%	5%	2.6%
8	0	Gent	11	13-9	95.1%	77%	40%	81%	49%	26%	11%	6%
9	1	Panathinaikos	11	13-9	96.0%	78%	38%	77%	41%	19%	7%	3.5%
10	3	Legia	11	11-7	95%	76%	40%	71%	31%	10%	2.7%	1.4%
11	3	Guimaraes	11	13-10	94%	73%	39%	77%	43%	21%	8%	4.1%
12	3	Jagiellonia	10	16-8	92%	70%	34%	60%	19%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%
13	3	Omonia	10	10-6	90%	64%	29%	60%	22%	6%	1.4%	< 1%
14	3	Lugano	10	11-10	87%	59%	25%	57%	21%	7%	1.6%	< 1%
15	1	Djurgarden	9	15-11	84%	54%	21%	53%	20%	6%	1.4%	< 1%
16	3	Paphos	9	11-7	86%	54%	19%	51%	17%	4.8%	1.0%	< 1%
17	0	FC Kobenhavn	9	10-9	81%	47%	15%	62%	34%	18%	7%	3.7%
18	3	Hearts	9	12-15	78%	41%	12%	37%	10%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
19	1	LASK	8	14-10	79%	44%	12%	47%	17%	6%	1.4%	< 1%
20	0	Olimpija Ljubljana	8	9-8	72%	37%	10%	36%	10%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
21	1	APOEL	8	8-8	72%	35%	8%	34%	9%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
22	3	FK Astana	8	5-7	67%	31%	8%	28%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
23	0	Bueyueksehir	7	9-8	64%	28%	6%	40%	17%	7%	2.1%	1.1%
24	3	Noah	7	8-8	63%	26%	5%	18%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	0	StGallen	7	8-10	59%	23%	4.6%	32%	12%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%
26	1	Shamrock	7	9-12	56%	19%	2.0%	11%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	0	Celje	6	9-14	38%	11%	1.4%	12%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	0	Mlada Boleslav	6	9-14	38%	12%	2.1%	19%	6%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
29	0	Backa Topola	5	3-7	27%	7%	< 1%	8%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	1	Borac Banja Luka	5	8-13	30%	8%	1.1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	0	Dinamo Minsk	4	11-15	20%	4.1%	< 1%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Vikingur	4	6-12	20%	4.6%	< 1%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	HJK Helsinki	4	4-13	13%	2.2%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	The New Saints	3	6-14	10%	1.7%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Larne	3	4-18	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Petrocub	2	6-14	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	7-7	10	13-8	13	16-7
5%	7	11-7	10	10-7	13	15-9
25%	7	11-13	10	14-15	12	14-4
50%	7	8-12	9	13-10	12	12-7
75%	6	12-12	9	5-4	12	7-7
95%	6	11-16	8	10-7	11	12-9
99%	6	4-19	8	9-9	10	15-9

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	86%	18.67	9.14	26.36
ITA	28%	15.37	7.88	25
POR	27%	15.15	6.4	26.3
ESP	22%	14.91	6.57	24.93
GER	21%	14.98	7.25	23.25
BEL	8%	13.73	6.6	23.6
CYP	4.1%	12.79	5.67	23.83
CZE	1.4%	12	6.3	22.5
GRE	1.0%	11.36	4.63	21.5
FRA	< 1%	11.21	5.07	20.14
TUR	< 1%	10.81	4.9	20
SWE	< 1%	10.49	5.75	20.5
UKR	< 1%	7.43	2.5	23.5
NED	< 1%	9.45	4.17	19.17
NOR	< 1%	9.53	4.88	16.38
DEN	< 1%	8.58	3.75	16
AUT	< 1%	7.81	3.4	17.38
POL	< 1%	8.66	4.25	14.75