Champions League - Knockout Stage Probabilities

 Below are the probabilities for how far different teams will go in the knockout -stage. 

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	24	Arsenal	24	23-4	100%	82%	58%	42%	26%
2	21	Bayern	21	22-8	100%	76%	47%	30%	15%
3	18	Liverpool	18	20-8	100%	70%	38%	17%	8%
4	17	Tottenham	17	17-7	100%	50%	17%	4.4%	1.4%
5	16	Barcelona	16	22-14	100%	58%	36%	16%	8%
6	16	Chelsea	16	17-10	100%	49%	26%	9%	3.8%
7	16	Sporting	16	17-11	100%	41%	11%	4.1%	1.3%
8	16	Man City	16	15-9	100%	67%	35%	23%	13%
9	15	Real Madrid	15	21-12	76%	38%	15%	7%	3.2%
10	15	Inter	15	15-7	77%	40%	16%	9%	3.8%
11	14	Paris SG	14	21-11	90%	53%	35%	17%	9%
12	14	Newcastle	14	17-7	82%	35%	17%	6%	2.1%
13	13	Juventus	13	14-10	65%	26%	9%	2.2%	< 1%
14	13	Atletico	13	17-15	74%	37%	16%	5%	2.1%
15	13	Atalanta	13	10-10	53%	9%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
16	12	Leverkusen	12	13-14	62%	16%	6%	2.7%	< 1%
17	11	Dortmund	11	19-17	57%	15%	6%	2.6%	< 1%
18	11	Olympiakos	11	10-14	28%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	10	Brugge	10	15-17	31%	8%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
20	10	Galatasaray	10	9-11	31%	8%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
21	10	Monaco	10	8-14	21%	4.4%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Karabakh Agdam	10	13-21	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	9	Bodoe Glimt	9	14-15	14%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Benfica	9	10-12	33%	11%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%

 

CL: Arenal stunned by Man United at Emirates

Man United stun Arsenal at Emirates and are now contenders in the CL race (39%) after beating both Man City and Arsenal. Arsenal chances on the title down to 81% and if they would lose to Leeds next week they are down to 72%. Next week we also have Newcastle traveling to Anfield for an important match in the CL race. 

Hot Teams
Bournemouth: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Man United: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Wolves: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected
Forest: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected
Fulham: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Crystal Palace: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Tottenham: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 less than expected
Man City: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 less than expected
Liverpool: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Arsenal: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
50	Arsenal	81.8	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.98%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
46	Man City	74.3	+38	< 1%	99.97%	99.90%	99.62%	98.4%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	99.65%
46	Aston Villa	72.8	+20	< 1%	99.90%	99.67%	98.8%	95.9%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	99.22%
36	Liverpool	63.2	+13	< 1%	91%	83%	69%	46%	< 1%	3.9%	20%	71%
37	Chelsea	61.2	+19	< 1%	86%	75%	57%	31%	< 1%	7%	28%	57%
38	Man United	59.7	+9	< 1%	74%	60%	39%	19%	< 1%	10%	33%	39%
33	Newcastle	54.9	+5	< 1%	37%	23%	11%	3.6%	< 1%	14%	26%	12%
32	Everton	53.5	-2	< 1%	25%	15%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	12%	17%	7%
34	Fulham	53.5	-3	< 1%	24%	13%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	12%	19%	6%
33	Brentford	53.3	+3	< 1%	25%	14%	6%	1.8%	< 1%	12%	21%	6%
30	Brighton	51.5	+3	< 1%	16%	9%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	13%	3.5%
30	Bournemouth	49.9	-7	< 1%	8%	3.9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	7%	1.3%
28	Tottenham	48.0	+1	1.3%	5%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.4%	4.0%	1.7%
28	Crystal Palace	47.8	-7	1.8%	3.7%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	38%	< 1%
33	Sunderland	47.6	-13	1.6%	2.9%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	2.7%	< 1%
25	Leeds	43.9	-12	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%
25	Forest	43.7	-14	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.8%
20	West Ham	35.3	-27	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%
15	Burnley	29.9	-29	96.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	Wolves	21.4	-40	99.93%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	81%	36%	52%	26%
Man City	13%	24%	44%	13%
Aston Villa	6%	8%		36%
Liverpool	< 1%	11%		8%
Chelsea	< 1%	7%	3.1%	2.7%
Man United	< 1%
Newcastle	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	1.8%
Everton	< 1%
Fulham	< 1%	2.2%
Brentford	< 1%	3.9%
Brighton		1.3%
Tottenham				< 1%
Crystal Palace				37%
Sunderland		< 1%
Leeds		1.2%
Forest				4.8%
West Ham		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%

Important matches for title race
Leeds vs Arsenal (2.9%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (61%)
Arsenal	72%	77%	85%
Man City	19%	16%	10%
Aston Villa	9%	7%	4.3%

 

Important matches for CL race
Liverpool vs Newcastle (4.2%)	Home Win (58%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
Liverpool	78%	66%	58%
Newcastle	9%	13%	22%
Chelsea vs West Ham (2.6%)	Home Win (67%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (15%)
Chelsea	63%	49%	42%
Man United	38%	42%	44%
Liverpool	70%	73%	75%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Brighton vs Everton (4.3%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Everton	18%	24%	36%
Brighton	22%	13%	9%
Liverpool vs Newcastle (3.7%)	Home Win (58%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
Newcastle	32%	39%	54%
Liverpool	95%	90%	85%

 

EL: Before the last match day

19 teams have already clinched knockout stage with 11 teams fighting over the remaining 5 places. 10 points is likely enough to advance to the knockout stage and 9 points will possible suffice. 

Lyon and Aston Villa have already clinched a top-8 spot with 18 points. 16 points will likely be enough but in some simulations 17 points are needed.

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	18	Lyon	21	16-4	100%	100%	100%	100%	61%	33%	16%	6%
2	18	Aston Villa	21	14-4	100%	100%	100%	100%	84%	67%	52%	36%
3	16	Midtjylland	19	18-9	100%	100%	97.6%	99.25%	52%	21%	7%	2.6%
4	16	Braga	19	12-5	100%	100%	92%	97.4%	50%	20%	7%	2.4%
5	15	Roma	18	13-5	100%	100%	79%	96.0%	67%	41%	23%	12%
6	14	Betis	17	13-7	100%	99.76%	65%	91%	57%	31%	15%	7%
7	17	Freiburg	17	12-6	100%	100%	99.16%	99.80%	59%	28%	12%	4.6%
8	14	Porto	17	12-6	100%	99.75%	76%	94%	61%	33%	17%	8%
9	13	Genk	16	11-7	100%	96.4%	35%	66%	20%	4.5%	1.1%	< 1%
10	12	Stuttgart	15	14-7	100%	94%	11%	76%	42%	20%	9%	4.1%
11	12	Bologna	15	13-8	100%	82%	4.4%	73%	39%	20%	9%	4.1%
12	15	Ferencvaros	15	14-11	100%	100%	20%	53%	13%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
13	11	Forest	14	13-7	100%	80%	< 1%	73%	39%	22%	11%	4.8%
14	11	Fenerbahce	14	10-6	100%	55%	< 1%	63%	27%	13%	4.9%	1.8%
15	13	Crvena Zvezda	14	7-6	100%	86%	9%	46%	12%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
16	13	Dinamo Zagreb	13	15-12	100%	87%	11%	40%	9%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
17	12	PAOK	12	16-12	100%	49%	1.5%	48%	13%	4.0%	1.1%	< 1%
18	11	Viktoria Plzen	12	8-4	100%	38%	< 1%	40%	9%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
19	9	Lille	12	12-9	99.36%	11%	< 1%	67%	33%	19%	9%	4.1%
20	11	Panathinaikos	11	11-10	100%	21%	< 1%	34%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
21	8	Celtic	11	10-13	72%	< 1%	< 1%	25%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
22	9	Brann	10	10-11	92%	< 1%	< 1%	28%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
23	9	Celta	10	12-14	92%	< 1%	< 1%	53%	24%	10%	3.7%	1.4%
24	9	Young Boys	9	9-16	47%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	7	Razgrad	8	12-16	34%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	6	Basel	7	11-14	36%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	6	Feyenoord	6	10-14	13%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	6	Salzburg	6	10-17	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	6	Steaua	6	10-18	8%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	6	Go Ahead Eagles	6	7-17	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	11-12	14	13-8	17	14-6
5%	10	13-16	14	12-8	17	13-7
25%	9	12-14	13	12-8	16	17-10
50%	9	12-16	13	8-8	16	13-8
75%	9	9-15	12	15-11	16	10-6
95%	9	10-21	12	12-9	15	14-8
99%	8	11-17	12	11-9	15	12-7

Important for Top-8
Betis vs Feyenoord (106.4%)	Home Win (65%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (16%)
Betis	99.68%	3.9%	< 1%
Genk	26%	54%	53%
Porto vs Rangers (87.6%)	Home Win (76%)	Draw (15%)	Away Win (9%)
Porto	99.1%	2.0%	< 1%
Stuttgart	6%	24%	25%
Panathinaikos vs Roma (69.1%)	Home Win (22%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (57%)
Roma	11%	94%	100%
Stuttgart	25%	7%	7%
Genk	55%	31%	29%
Forest vs Ferencvaros (64.9%)	Home Win (73%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (11%)
Ferencvaros	< 1%	53%	100%
Freiburg	100%	100%	92%
Midtjylland vs Dinamo Zagreb (52.1%)	Home Win (66%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (15%)
Dinamo Zagreb	< 1%	< 1%	70%
Midtjylland	100%	99.99%	84%
Genk vs Malmoe (45.2%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Genk	56%	< 1%	< 1%
Stuttgart	4.9%	21%	21%
Crvena Zvezda	4.5%	16%	16%
Bologna	1.7%	9%	9%
Go Ahead Eagles vs Braga (20.5%)	Home Win (25%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (53%)
Braga	67%	99.3%	100%
Genk	47%	32%	32%
Crvena Zvezda vs Celta (19.3%)	Home Win (35%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (41%)
Crvena Zvezda	25%	< 1%	< 1%
Stuttgart	3.0%	15%	15%
Bologna	1.0%	6%	6%
Stuttgart vs Young Boys (6.3%)	Home Win (77%)	Draw (14%)	Away Win (9%)
Stuttgart	14%	< 1%	< 1%
Bologna	3.3%	8%	8%
PAOK	1.3%	2.4%	2.5%

Important for Knockout Stage
Razgrad vs Nice (98.5%)	Home Win (33%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (43%)
Razgrad	98.8%	6%	< 1%
Young Boys	27%	57%	56%
Basel vs Viktoria Plzen (84.7%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Basel	84%	< 1%	< 1%
Young Boys	30%	60%	60%
Celtic vs Utrecht (67.4%)	Home Win (53%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (24%)
Celtic	100%	69%	11%
Young Boys	39%	40%	71%
Betis vs Feyenoord (52.6%)	Home Win (65%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (16%)
Feyenoord	< 1%	< 1%	81%
Stuttgart vs Young Boys (36.3%)	Home Win (77%)	Draw (14%)	Away Win (9%)
Young Boys	32%	95%	100%
Brann	95.2%	83%	83%
Celta	95.1%	84%	83%
Steaua vs Fenerbahce (23.5%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (54%)
Steaua	35%	< 1%	< 1%
Young Boys	29%	52%	52%
Aston Villa vs Salzburg (14.8%)	Home Win (87%)	Draw (9%)	Away Win (4%)
Salzburg	< 1%	< 1%	60%
Crvena Zvezda vs Celta (13.9%)	Home Win (35%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (41%)
Celta	79%	99.7%	100%
Brann	95.4%	91%	91%
Sturm Graz vs Brann (12.6%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
Brann	81%	99.92%	100%
Go Ahead Eagles vs Braga (8.5%)	Home Win (25%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (53%)
Go Ahead Eagles	14%	< 1%	< 1%
Young Boys	41%	49%	49%

 

CL: PSG vs Newcastle in decided and other conditions for the last matchday

Sixteen teams have qualified for the knockout stage and 16 teams fighting over the remaining eight slots. Conditions are listed below with Brugge vs Marseille being the most important - statistically speaking.

Two teams have qualified for the top-8 (avoiding the playoff round) and 15 teams are fighting over the remaining six spots. Below are the conditions listed with PSG vs Newcastle being listed as the most important, as basically the winner clinch top-8, while the loser is out of chance. 

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	21	Arsenal	24	25-3	100%	100%	100%	100%	80%	59%	41%	26%
2	18	Bayern	19	22-9	100%	100%	100%	100%	73%	47%	29%	15%
3	15	Liverpool	18	18-10	100%	100%	95.1%	99.0%	65%	35%	17%	8%
4	13	Paris SG	16	22-11	100%	100%	64%	94%	63%	37%	19%	9%
5	15	Real Madrid	16	20-9	100%	100%	80%	95%	56%	26%	11%	4.8%
6	13	Barcelona	16	21-14	100%	100%	81%	96.5%	61%	32%	16%	7%
7	13	Man City	16	15-9	100%	>99.99%	66%	95%	67%	39%	24%	13%
8	13	Atletico	16	18-13	100%	>99.99%	55%	88%	43%	16%	6%	2.5%
9	14	Tottenham	15	16-8	100%	100%	45%	80%	33%	10%	2.9%	< 1%
10	13	Chelsea	14	15-9	100%	>99.99%	33%	81%	39%	17%	7%	2.7%
11	13	Sporting	14	15-10	100%	>99.99%	34%	77%	30%	10%	3.1%	1.1%
12	13	Atalanta	14	11-10	100%	99.94%	15%	64%	20%	5%	1.5%	< 1%
13	13	Newcastle	13	17-8	100%	100%	20%	77%	34%	14%	4.9%	1.8%
14	12	Inter	13	14-8	100%	95.4%	6%	77%	35%	17%	8%	3.7%
15	12	Juventus	13	15-11	100%	95%	4.6%	61%	18%	6%	1.8%	< 1%
16	11	Dortmund	12	21-17	100%	69%	1.3%	65%	23%	9%	3.4%	1.3%
17	9	Leverkusen	12	12-15	93%	12%	< 1%	48%	15%	6%	2.3%	< 1%
18	9	Marseille	10	12-12	93%	13%	< 1%	36%	9%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
19	10	Galatasaray	10	10-12	99.84%	9%	< 1%	29%	5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
20	10	Karabakh Agdam	10	13-17	99.45%	4.6%	< 1%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	9	Monaco	10	9-15	76%	3.2%	< 1%	22%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	8	PSV	9	15-14	57%	< 1%	< 1%	24%	7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
23	8	Bilbao	9	8-12	54%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	8	Olympiakos	9	9-14	49%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	8	Napoli	9	8-13	55%	< 1%	< 1%	24%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
26	7	Brugge	8	13-18	42%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	8	FC Kobenhavn	8	11-19	10%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	6	Benfica	7	7-11	28%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	4.0%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	6	Paphos	7	5-11	17%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	6	St Gillis	7	8-18	8%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	6	Ajax	7	8-20	10%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	6	Bodoe Glimt	6	14-18	10%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	13-16	13	13-12	16	23-15
5%	10	11-17	13	17-18	16	22-15
25%	9	11-13	12	21-17	16	19-13
50%	9	11-16	12	15-12	16	15-10
75%	9	10-17	12	14-13	15	17-7
95%	8	16-16	12	9-14	14	20-10
99%	8	13-18	11	19-17	14	15-9

Important for Top-8
Paris SG vs Newcastle (153.1%)	Home Win (61%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (19%)
Paris SG	100%	18%	< 1%
Newcastle	< 1%	4.7%	>99.99%
Napoli vs Chelsea (87.9%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Chelsea	< 1%	2.4%	94%
Bilbao vs Sporting (78.7%)	Home Win (36%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (40%)
Sporting	< 1%	< 1%	84%
Frankfurt vs Tottenham (78.7%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (36%)
Tottenham	5%	26%	100%
Barcelona vs FC Kobenhavn (65.7%)	Home Win (82%)	Draw (11%)	Away Win (6%)
Barcelona	97.9%	2.4%	< 1%
Man City vs Galatasaray (60.7%)	Home Win (77%)	Draw (14%)	Away Win (9%)
Man City	86%	< 1%	< 1%
Atletico vs Bodoe Glimt (55.7%)	Home Win (73%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (11%)
Atletico	76%	< 1%	< 1%
Benfica vs Real Madrid (40.3%)	Home Win (37%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (39%)
Real Madrid	47%	100%	100%
Atletico	66%	49%	49%
St Gillis vs Atalanta (30%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Atalanta	< 1%	< 1%	41%
Real Madrid	84%	85%	73%
Liverpool vs Karabakh Agdam (20.9%)	Home Win (85%)	Draw (10%)	Away Win (5%)
Liverpool	100%	88%	24%
Dortmund vs Inter (12.7%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Inter	< 1%	< 1%	17%
Dortmund	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
Juventus	6%	6%	2.1%
Monaco vs Juventus (7.8%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (38%)
Juventus	< 1%	< 1%	12%
Dortmund	1.9%	1.9%	< 1%

Important for Knockout Stage
Brugge vs Marseille (112.2%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Brugge	99.88%	2.5%	< 1%
Marseille	82%	99.98%	100%
Ajax vs Olympiakos (98.2%)	Home Win (40%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
Olympiakos	< 1%	58%	>99.99%
Ajax	24%	< 1%	< 1%
Bilbao vs Sporting (86.1%)	Home Win (36%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (40%)
Bilbao	>99.99%	72%	1.6%
Napoli vs Chelsea (85.6%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Napoli	>99.99%	55%	< 1%
PSV vs Bayern (81.8%)	Home Win (29%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (48%)
PSV	100%	96.4%	11%
Benfica vs Real Madrid (64.4%)	Home Win (37%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (39%)
Benfica	76%	< 1%	< 1%
Monaco vs Juventus (47.6%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (38%)
Monaco	100%	98.5%	37%
Atletico vs Bodoe Glimt (43.7%)	Home Win (73%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (11%)
Bodoe Glimt	< 1%	< 1%	87%
Barcelona vs FC Kobenhavn (40.2%)	Home Win (82%)	Draw (11%)	Away Win (6%)
FC Kobenhavn	< 1%	32%	99.9%
Paphos vs Slavia Praha (37.5%)	Home Win (34%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (42%)
Paphos	49%	< 1%	< 1%
Leverkusen vs Villarreal (20.2%)	Home Win (59%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
Leverkusen	100%	99.6%	65%
St Gillis vs Atalanta (14.2%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
St Gillis	21%	< 1%	< 1%
Ajax	5%	12%	12%