Sunday, March 20, 2016

Man City lost the derby

Manchester City lost the derby and now need to focus on finishing top-four. Tottenham won easily and do everything to stress front runner, Leicester. Tottenham probably need another 16 points in their remaining seven matches to have a good chance.


Expected Outcome
TeamPointsExpected +/-Chance%
Leicester76.865-4074.6
Tottenham72.267-3316.5
Arsenal70.965-388.43
Man City65.667-410.48


Important Matches1X2
HomeAwayLeicesTottenArsenaMan CiLeicesTottenArsenaMan CiLeicesTottenArsenaMan CiImportance
Leicester-Everton83.810.95.140.2169.119.910.30.61160.325.213.60.92627
Leicester-Southampton83.910.85.10.19969.419.810.20.59460.62513.50.93926.8
Leicester-West Ham83.211.35.310.22368.120.510.70.63659.425.6140.9726.7
Sunderland-Leicester62.723.712.70.84271.318.69.590.53685.1104.660.18326.2
Leicester-Swansea82.411.85.540.23767.121.111.10.65958.126.314.51.0426.1
Liverpool-Tottenham80.39.489.650.58376.813.88.850.51966.126.96.640.32721.2
Stoke-Tottenham80.69.189.660.59876.913.68.930.52666.726.26.780.32220.9
Chelsea-Tottenham79.310.69.480.57275.515.58.480.48664.528.96.320.29419.9
Man United-Leicester67.920.610.80.66775.715.97.960.41588.18.173.650.13219.8
Newcastle-Tottenham81.67.799.970.63178.411.79.30.5516923.57.170.36419.3
Tottenham-Man United69.123.27.250.38678.711.69.230.53781.77.65100.61319
Man City-Arsenal77.217.44.560.83975.716.67.560.13568.114.517.40.034118
Chelsea-Leicester68.720.110.50.64676.515.37.750.38988.38.023.510.13117.9
Tottenham-Southampton70.2227.380.38379.210.79.480.56381.97.2510.20.65717.1
West Ham-Arsenal78.317.93.250.57876.717.25.630.51470.715.113.80.38815.6
Tottenham-West Brom71.320.77.640.39979.89.989.620.57282.46.5310.30.71114.4
Sunderland-Arsenal78.617.92.830.59177.217.54.780.53371.815.512.40.40913.5
Arsenal-Crystal Palace72.915.910.80.4477.817.64.020.557918.12.310.5849.72
Arsenal-Watford7315.910.60.44777.817.63.990.54379.118.12.220.5769.16
Arsenal-West Brom72.91610.70.43977.917.54.110.55679.1182.270.5989.06


PointsLeicesterTottenhamArsenalMan City
870.207100------
850.852100------
841.5100------
831.44100------
824.9999.70.3195.2----
815.4299.7------
806.6198.71.284.7----
7911.3961.8377.31.1374--
7810.193.91.9165.5----
771186.25.85553.3649.8--
7612.576.9642.54.6137.3--
759.366.47.4729.44.2224.90.56625.8
748.1750.611.72010.915.4--
736.8836.510.211.49.418.261.958.52
724.082411.15.6910.53.872.413.49
712.7613.411.82.6513.41.622.931.44
701.726.798.750.9399.930.4977.080.469
690.7262.937.520.2919.430.1396.690.0912
680.3350.8076.070.06928.190.02568.730.0149
670.1420.3513.550.01415.30.0018911.60.00173

Saturday, March 19, 2016

Leicester won again

Leicester won again and now  has more than 75% predicted chance to win the league.


Expected Outcome
TeamPointsExpected +/-Chance%
Leicester76.865-4075.9
Tottenham71.467-3413
Arsenal70.965-388.77
Man City67.669-412.41


Important Matches1X2
HomeAwayLeicesTottenArsenaMan CiLeicesTottenArsenaMan CiLeicesTottenArsenaMan CiImportance
Leicester-Everton84.98.445.311.3170.515.710.8361.719.914.24.1827.3
Leicester-Southampton858.425.241.3270.915.510.62.9161.919.714.24.1527
Leicester-West Ham84.38.845.511.3769.91611.13.0760.720.214.64.3726.7
Sunderland-Leicester64.118.813.23.8772.714.6102.786.37.734.81.1826.6
Leicester-Swansea83.69.165.791.4968.616.711.53.2259.720.715.14.4125.8
Man City-Arsenal78.113.44.63.9277.313.48.11.1369.911.518.30.39723.4
Man United-Leicester69.316.211.33.1977.112.48.242.2896.283.810.91919.7
Liverpool-Tottenham80.57.069.782.777.610.79.172.5769.121.77.271.9518.2
Stoke-Tottenham80.56.869.92.747810.49.12.5269.521.17.351.9918
Chelsea-Leicester70.115.8113.1177.712.282.1289.36.143.750.85417.6
Chelsea-Tottenham79.77.969.642.7176.6128.932.4167.723.56.951.8317.5
Newcastle-Tottenham81.35.7910.12.7678.98.929.52.6671.418.87.692.1116.3
Tottenham-Man United71.618.57.812.0979.28.769.42.6581.45.6210.12.8416.2
West Ham-Arsenal79.9143.442.6677.913.65.942.5971.811.814.32.1215.9
Tottenham-Southampton72.317.57.962.1679.68.219.52.6981.75.2110.32.8114.5
Sunderland-Arsenal80.114.22.962.7178.713.75.092.5872.912.112.82.2213.7
Tottenham-West Brom73.216.48.172.2807.519.742.7882.34.7310.12.8612.2
Tottenham-Bournemouth73.516.18.212.2580.47.219.752.6682.14.710.32.8911.2
Arsenal-Crystal Palace74.112.411.22.2979.213.94.352.680.414.32.52.779.62
Arsenal-Watford74.212.5112.379.313.84.182.6780.614.22.442.79.25


PointsLeicesterTottenhamArsenalMan City
870.207100------
850.846100------
841.51100------
831.43100------
824.9399.80.22195.3----
815.3699.7------
806.63990.88784.1----
7911.4971.377.31.1275--
781094.81.5665.7--0.34266.5
771188.44.554.43.3850.9--
7612.5794.7241.84.5937.91.2741.1
759.32696.4428.74.2526.31.5227.3
748.2252.99.921910.916.42.1418.4
736.8738.29.1310.49.388.755.089.2
724.124.910.74.9910.64.125.033.95
712.7513.811.62.0913.31.697.251.76
701.756.649.290.729.940.5779.580.49
690.7342.788.820.1939.470.1458.970.115
680.3251.267.350.03278.190.031810.50.0219
670.1470.4084.9205.280.0075710.50.000954
660.027403.703.990.00258.810.00114

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

CL: Round of 16

Round of 16 is completed. No surprise in the last match day, but Bayern Munich were on the ropes saving their season in the last minute with an equalizer. Now the big three, Barcelona, Real, and Bayern, are all through and challenged by the dark horses, Atletico and Paris. With a free draw on Friday, we expect a few of these big guys going up against each other.

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

CL: Atletico through to quarter final after penalty shoot out

Atletico through to quarter final after penalty shoot out against PSV. Man City could as expected keep the advantage they have got from first leg.


Monday, March 14, 2016

PL: Leicester beat Newcastle

The match between Man City and Arsenal is no longer considered the most important match because they are not very strong contenders. The key matches are the ones Leicester play as they have it the title in their hands.

Expected Outcome
TeamPointsExpected +/-Chance%
Leicester75.166-4266.1
Tottenham71.467-3420.8
Arsenal69.464-408.43
Man City67.669-414.67


Important Matches1X2
HomeAwayLeicesTottenArsenaMan CiLeicesTottenArsenaMan CiLeicesTottenArsenaMan CiImportance
Sunderland-Leicester53.22811.96.836223.29.515.2977.814.25.282.7526.8
Leicester-Southampton76.215.15.633.0459.924.510.15.651.22912.67.1426.7
Leicester-Everton76.115.25.693.0759.724.410.25.6850.929.412.67.1326.6
Leicester-West Ham75.415.65.863.1558.82510.45.8749.929.8137.3326.4
Man City-Arsenal67.121.24.447.3167.921.77.882.5162.319.317.41.0825.3
Crystal Palace-Leicester55.326.811.46.564.122.18.924.979.113.44.872.5425.2
Leicester-Swansea74.416.16.173.357.825.610.75.9148.930.4137.6424.9
Stoke-Tottenham72.112.69.85.5168.417.78.874.9758.131.76.673.5821.9
Liverpool-Tottenham71.8139.735.4468.118.28.844.8857.832.16.583.621.2
Man United-Leicester58.625.110.55.8767.120.484.581.5124.32.2421
Newcastle-Tottenham73.410.8105.727015.69.215.260.328.77.183.8520.5
Chelsea-Tottenham70.814.39.525.3266.919.98.574.756.234.36.23.3820.1
Tottenham-Man United60.528.47.153.9570.315.49.285.1273.410.710.25.7220
Chelsea-Leicester59.424.610.35.7667.919.97.764.388211.74.22.0919.3
Tottenham-Southampton61.527.17.334.0470.914.49.495.2373.710.110.35.8318.4
Tottenham-West Brom62.625.67.614.1971.413.59.655.474.59.2210.45.8515.4
Everton-Arsenal69.122.23.75.0967.621.56.074.8262.619.2144.2214.4
Tottenham-Bournemouth6325.17.674.2271.613.19.775.4574.49.110.55.9514.3
West Ham-Arsenal69.222.23.555.0567.821.55.774.8862.819.413.54.2813.9
Sunderland-Arsenal69.522.33.115.0668.221.85.054.9663.719.712.14.3911.8


PointsLeicesterTottenhamArsenalMan City
870.0745100------
850.359100------
840.634100------
830.736100------
822.5199.90.21697.2----
812.9199.8------
804.299.10.87891.3----
797.3697.51.3286.50.4584.8--
787.3895.81.5578.5--0.33678.6
779.4190.84.570.61.6266--
7611.583.44.7259.62.2453.31.2757.7
751074.36.4546.42.5240.81.5443.7
7410.360.89.9134.96.728.82.1431.9
739.6346.79.1223.36.4317.75.1319.9
727.132.410.7148.410.15.0311.3
715.9320.311.57.6911.54.817.245.67
704.3511.29.383.479.861.919.612.29
692.525.618.771.3510.80.7178.970.788
681.642.267.310.43110.50.19510.50.253
670.9081.024.930.137.970.041410.40.0636
660.3810.213.70.02436.950.01158.810.0125
650.16502.440.01645.2208.250.00242
640.062501.270.007853.4206.650

Sunday, March 13, 2016

Premier League

Some stats after the weekend's matches. Expected outcome shows the average outcome in the simulations. Important matches are ranked with respect to how much they influence which teams win the league. For each outcome: home win (1), draw (X), and away win (2) the chances for top 4 teams are given. The last table shows as before the chances for each team given that they take x points.


Expected Outcome
TeamPointsExpected +/-Chance%
Leicester74.367-4360
Tottenham71.467-3424
Arsenal69.464-4010.1
Man City67.669-415.86


Important Matches1X2
HomeAwayLeicesTottenArsenaMan CiLeicesTottenArsenaMan CiLeicesTottenArsenaMan CiImportance
Man City-Arsenal60.924.55.549.076225.19.663.2856.422.120.11.4528
Leicester-Everton70.218.47.34.1253.627.711.86.9344.632.514.38.5625.9
Leicester-Southampton70.318.37.274.1353.827.511.86.854532.314.28.4725.5
Sunderland-Leicester47.231.113.78.155.726.511.26.5571.917.46.813.8425.5
Leicester-West Ham69.518.87.474.2552.628.112.27.1143.83314.58.6825.3
Crystal Palace-Leicester493013.17.7857.725.410.76.2173.516.66.353.5524.7
Leicester-Swansea68.419.57.754.451.728.612.47.2742.933.314.98.9123.5
Stoke-Tottenham66.115.111.86.9362.320.910.66.2252.135.67.854.4922.7
Liverpool-Tottenham65.815.511.76.916221.410.56.1351.736.17.754.4122.5
Leicester-Newcastle67.220.18.094.6150.129.612.87.4941.733.915.39.2121.7
Newcastle-Tottenham67.313.212.37.2363.918.511.16.4854.332.58.364.8221.6
Tottenham-Man United54.532.28.474.8664.118.211.16.5767.41312.47.2321.2
Chelsea-Tottenham64.91711.46.6960.623.310.25.8950.138.37.394.2220.8
Man United-Leicester52.328.312.27.166123.69.785.677615.15.683.2220.6
Tottenham-Southampton55.530.88.744.9764.517.411.36.7667.812.312.57.3719.1
Chelsea-Leicester53.227.8126.9961.623.19.625.676.514.85.593.1518.6
Tottenham-West Brom56.529.29.045.265.516.111.66.8368.411.412.77.5216.5
Everton-Arsenal6325.94.756.3661.624.87.436.1656.521.916.45.2415.5
Tottenham-Bournemouth56.928.79.155.2665.615.811.76.9268.711.112.77.5415.2
West Ham-Arsenal63.225.84.536.4561.824.97.126.1556.722.215.85.2715.1


PointsLeicesterTottenhamArsenalMan City
870.0546100------
850.247100------
840.418100------
830.544100------
821.7999.90.21297.7----
812.1499.8------
803.3599.30.87293.1----
795.7897.91.3188.90.45887.5--
786.195.91.5582.9--0.33183.8
778.1991.84.5175.41.6270.6--
761084.54.6964.42.2458.91.2963.4
759.4575.86.4753.22.5546.71.5351.1
7410.4639.9341.16.7333.62.1238.6
731047.99.1228.36.4321.95.0525.1
728.1934.810.718.58.36135.0315.2
717.32211.610.711.56.837.248.23
705.712.19.35.39.893.119.623.53
693.876.188.812.4210.81.248.971.47
682.792.77.310.90610.40.37910.50.476
671.731.024.940.380.10610.50.137
660.9560.2413.70.08666.960.0238.790.0296
650.5240.09552.390.02095.2308.220.0073
640.2540.03941.303.3906.620.00151

Wednesday, March 9, 2016

CL: Round of 16


With four teams qualified no surprises so far. Zenit was closest an upset when they had 1-0 (against Benfica) for 15 minutes in 2nd half, which would have given them extra time and potentially penalties.


Sunday, March 6, 2016

Premier League Match Day 29

As before after the weekend's matches.


PointsLeicesterTottenhamArsenalMan City
870.0497100------
850.251100------
840.428100------
830.549100------
821.8199.90.11298.2----
812.1499.8------
803.3499.30.53393.5--0.1994
795.7898.50.76888.80.44787.8--
786.196.61.0482.6--0.883.3
778.1992.62.9374.81.6272.10.9576.8
761086.73.1863.82.2359.91.4765.8
759.577.64.8551.92.5148.63.4953.5
7410.465.17.539.66.7234.93.6541.4
731051.27.4626.96.423.55.6428.7
728.1737.39.5216.98.4714.47.6418.1
717.324.210.69.7211.57.477.7110.1
705.6514.29.544.69.963.679.64.79
693.97.429.841.9910.81.459.932.08
682.83.068.820.78210.40.4779.220.719
671.771.316.830.2187.950.1659.20.234
660.9310.4735.70.06496.950.04177.920.0467
650.5290.09464.140.01695.180.009656.440.00932
640.2430.04122.70.003713.430.002915.310

Thursday, March 3, 2016

Premier League

Table below is based on 1,000,000 simulations of remaining matches of Premier League. The left column for each team indicates the probability (%) that the team will finish on that many points, and the right column indicates chance (%) that the team win the title if they finish on that many points.


PointLeicesterTottenhamArsenalMan City
870.0168100------
850.103100------
840.1821000.052299.2----
830.27100------
820.90399.90.26198.9----
811.1299.30.38598.20.1497.8--
801.9398.80.58296.7--0.15397
793.4397.51.6693.50.62493.1--
783.9694.31.94890.91686.40.65688.2
775.7890.43.282.91.18810.76282
767.5483.35.0474.33.3570.61.372.7
757.8673.45.55633.657.62.9360.7
749.4562.27.5751.45.3346.13.1447.6
739.9148.48.8937.78.1631.35.0834.7
729.1734.38.8925.58.0120.66.822.5
719.13239.9515.89.88127.213.8
707.913.49.548.5210.85.739.086.84
696.317.048.384.039.512.749.523.11
685.183.157.71.729.471.049.11.25
673.751.26.280.5838.20.3299.30.424
662.510.4074.70.166.30.09848.210.112
651.650.1093.610.07485.140.03316.970.0273
640.9790.02042.40.008343.620.002765.970
630.50301.520.006592.350.004254.50