PL: top four

Arsenal and Man City won their matches and this is the expected outcome.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	92.5	82-32	100	100
Tottenham	83.2	76-26	0	100
Man City	76.7	76-40	0	97.7
Liverpool	75.3	77-42	0	85.5
Arsenal	73.8	75-44	0	16.9

Predictions of last round:

Arsenal	56%	22%	22%	Everton
Liverpool	74%	15%	10%	Middlesbrough
Watford	26%	23%	51%	Man City

Man City finish top 4, if (at least) one of the following occurs:

• they do not lose against Watford (74%) or
• Arsenal do not win against Everton (44%) or
• Liverpool do not win against Middlesbrough (26%) or
• Man City lose with one goal (15%) and Arsenal do not win with four (or more) goals (94%)
• Man City lose with two goals (7%) and Arsenal do not win with three (or more) goals (84%)
• Man City lose with three goals (2%) and Arsenal do not win with two (or more) goals (67%)

Liverpool finish top 4, if one of the following occurs

• they win against Middlesbrough (74%) or
• they  draw (15%) and Arsenal do not win (44%)
• they lose with one goal (7%) and Arsenal do not win (44%)
• they lose with more than two goals (0.7%) and Arsenal lose (22%)
• they lose with two goals (3%), Arsenal draw (22%), and Liverpool score at least as many goals as Arsenal.

Arsenal finish  top 4, if

• they win (56%) and Liverpool do not win (26%) or
• they draw (22%) and Liverpool lose with more than two goals (0.7%) or
• Liverpool lose 2-0 (1.6%), Arsenal draw and score at least two goals (7%) or
• they win (56%) and Man City lose (26%) and Arsenal catch up more than five goal difference (1.7%)

Below is  summary the three team given their final points.

Points	Man City	Chance	Liverpool	Chance	Arsenal	Chance
78	51.5	100	-	-	-	-
76	22.9	100	74.3	100	-	-
75	25.7	91	-	-	55.6	29.8
74	-	-	15.4	44.3	-	-
73	-	-	10.3	41.9	22	1.19

PL: Chelsea Champions

Chelsea secured the title with a 1-0 win against West Bromwich on Friday night. Tottenham secured the second spot with a win against Man Utd.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	91.9	81-30	100	100
Tottenham	83.2	76-26	0	100
Liverpool	75.3	77-42	0	89.6
Man City	75.9	76-40	0	89.4
Arsenal	73.2	76-45	0	20.9

What is left to play for is the top4 spot, which gives a ticket to next year's Champions League. Liverpool and Man City are predicted a 90% chance while Arsenal have roughly 20%. The table below shows the probability each team has on a top4 position given that they take X points. Liverpool, for example, secure the CL ticket with a win in the last match; with a draw (15%) they have 64%, and if the lose (10%) they have 53%. Man City only need (at least) 4 points (58.9%) to secure CL, and if they take three points (24.8%), they still have 41% chance. Arsenal need to win their last two matches (40.9%) and then hope that Liverpool or Man City choke (44.7%).

Points	Liverpool	Chance	Man City	Chance	Arsenal	Chance
78	-	-	34.1	100	-	-
76	74.2	100	24.8	100	-	-
75	-	-	24.8	88.8	40.9	44.7
74	15.4	64.1	4.33	69.8	-	-
73	10.3	53.1	8.23	55.6	25	9.6
72	-	-	3.86	26.7	22.4	1.25

Prediction of upcoming matches:

Home Team	Home Win	Draw	Away Win	Away Team
Arsenal	73%	16%	11%	Sunderland
Man City	66%	19%	15%	West Brom
Arsenal	56%	22%	22%	Everton
Liverpool	74%	15%	10%	Middlesbrough
Watford	26%	23%	51%	Man City

CL: Semi finals

Figure showing how the semifinalists chances have evolved during the knock-out stage.

PL: Chelsea a win from winning league

Chelsea is a win away from securing the league mathematically. Arsenal won is trailing 2 points behind Liverpool in expected points.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	90.7	82-31	99.8	100
Tottenham	81.9	76-26	0.234	100
Liverpool	73.9	75-44	0	78.1
Man City	75	76-40	0	89.9
Arsenal	71.7	74-45	0	25.6
Man United	69.9	56-31	0	6.38
Everton	61	63-43	0	0

Table below show probability team finish top 4 given a certain number of points. All teams have a fair chance if they win their matches.

Team	Liverpool		ManCity		Arsenal		ManUtd
78	-	-	21.1	100	-	-	-	-
77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
76	32.8	100	22.1	100	-	-	-	-
75	-	-	21.4	99.2	17.2	79.8	-	-
74	24.6	86.6	7.64	94.2	-	-	8.53	53.9
73	28.2	69.9	14.6	83.8	20.4	36.7	-	-
72	3.69	49	7.67	60.4	23.3	15.6	13.9	8.14
71	7.41	27.1	2.42	35.4	7.46	8.03	23	2.67
70	3.26	12.3	2.25	18.2	16.3	1.49	6.79	0.448
69	-	-	0.713	7.32	9.47	0.0348	20.9	0.00335

PL: Tottenham lost against West Ham

Tottenham lost against and also lost a fair chance on the league title. They are now predicted a 3/400 chance. The most likely path to premiership for tottenham goes via winning the remaining three matches (10%) and Chelsea taking less than 6 points in remaining four matches (5%).

Liverpool drew Southampton and thereby lost the chance to catch up on Liverpool (Spurs has secured a top 3 qualification to CL group stage). Liverpool still got 86% chance to end top 4 and their main challenger now is Arsenal after their win against Man United. Liverpool are still expected to end with four points more than Arsenal. Liverpool need two win both remaining matches (33%) to be certain to end top 4; take at least 4 points (47%) to be more than 90% certain, and take at least 2 points (89%) to have more than 50% chance to end top 4. Likewise, Arsenal need to win their three remaining matches (7%) to have a decent, more than 50% chance.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	90.2	82-32	99.3	100
Tottenham	81.9	76-26	0.724	100
Man City	75	76-40	0	93.3
Liverpool	73.9	75-44	0	85.7
Arsenal	70.1	73-46	0	13.2
Man United	69.9	56-31	0	7.8

CL: Semi 1st leg

With the favorites winning their first leg, it looks like the likely final will be between Real Madrid and Juventus.

CL: Monaco vs Juventus Predictions

Monaco have a predicted chance of 36% to reach the final. Table below shows their chances given the most common results with the left column indicating how likely that result is.


P(%) Result Chance
11      1-1      41
9.4     1-2      19
8.4     0-1      25
7.3     0-2      10
7        2-1      61
6.2     1-0      70
6.1     2-2      33
5.5     1-3      6.5
4.8     0-0      50
4.2     0-3      3.2

CL: Read Madrid vs Atletic Madrid Predictions

Real Madrid have a predicted chance of 65% against Atletic Madrid. The table below show the 10 most likely result in the first match (Real Madrid vs Atletic). First column show probability the result occur, while the last column show Real Madrid's chance to reach the final given that result in the first match. In short, REAL increase their chances if they win or play nil-nil.

P(%) Result  Real Chance
11     1-1    62%
9.5    2-1    79%
8.4    1-0    85%
7.4    2-0    94%
6.9    1-2    36%
6.2    0-1    45%
6.1    2-2    54%
5.5    3-1    91%
4.8    0-0    70%
4.3    3-0    98%

PL: Tottenham beat Arsenal in North London Derby

Chelsea won easily against their biggest hurdle, Everton, and now have a relatively easy schedule compared with Tottenham and have a predicted chance of 96.5%. 

Tottenham won North London Derby and virtually secured a top 4 spot. To miss it they need to lose remaining matches, while Man City, Liverpool and Man United win remaining matches plus that Man United catch up 23 goal difference. The chance that happens is smaller than microscopic. Arsenal's chance to catch up on the top 4 is becoming slim (8%).

Liverpool won while Manchester teams drew giving Liverpool some air. United have a tougher schedule including a match against Tottenham, which gives Man City the upper hand (83%).

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	90.2	82-32	96.5	100
Tottenham	83.5	77-27	3.52	100
Liverpool	75	77-45	0	89.3
Man City	74.3	73-41	0	82.5
Man United	71	57-30	0	20.1
Arsenal	68.8	73-48	0	8.01
Everton	62.5	65-44	0	0.0005

Points	Chelsea		Tottenham		Liverpool		Man City		Man United		Arsenal		Everton
93	24.9	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
91	23.8	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
90	20.4	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
89	7.8	100	4.79	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
88	12.3	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
87	5.69	100	9.7	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
86	2.41	100	12.4	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
85	1.81	100	7.3	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
84	0.556	100	18.5	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
83	0.157	100	14.2	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
82	0.0718	100	9.17	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
81	0.0135	100	11.8	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
80	-	-	6.26	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
79	-	-	2.78	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
78	-	-	2.32	100	20.3	100	15.3	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
77	-	-	0.716	100	-	-	-	-	2.52	97	-	-	-	-
76	-	-	-	-	22	99.3	19.6	99.2	-	-	-	-	-	-
75	-	-	-	-	23.3	96.9	17.9	97.1	6.07	72.6	3.16	75.1	-	-
74	-	-	-	-	7.25	91.7	9.09	91	10.7	55.7	-	-	-	-
73	-	-	-	-	14.6	79.8	16.6	78.8	5.29	39.1	7.35	39.3	-	-
72	-	-	-	-	7.82	62.3	9.24	62.9	18.2	18.5	9.25	18.3	-	-
71	-	-	-	-	2.18	42.2	4.97	41.8	17.2	7.98	6.63	8.34	-	-
70	-	-	-	-	1.96	23.4	4.54	23.6	9.17	3.58	16.4	2.6	-	-
69	-	-	-	-	0.585	10.2	1.79	11.2	15.1	0.73	13	0.527	-	-
68	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.647	3.89	9.07	0.116	10.5	0.0934	-	-
67	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.363	1.02	2.97	0.0202	13.4	0.012	6.24	0.00802
66	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.0803	0.374	2.76	0	7.92	0.00126	-	-