PL

Below we have changed the way statistics are collected. Rather than reporting the chance if team T takes at least X points, we now report the chance team T if they take X points.

Expected Outcome

Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	98	104-28	100	100
Man United	81	75-31	0.0121	98.6
Tottenham	76.5	75-34	0.0001	84.7
Liverpool	76.5	87-42	0	87.6
Chelsea	72.1	69-35	0	29.1
Arsenal	62.9	70-50	0	0.064

Man United have clinched CL, if they take 15 (of 24) more points

Man United have more than 99.9% chance, if they take 14 (of 24) more points

Man United have more than 99% chance, if they take 13 (of 24) more points

Man United have more than 95% chance, if they take 11 (of 24) more points

Man United have more than 90% chance, if they take 10 (of 24) more points

Man United have more than 50% chance, if they take 7 (of 24) more points

Man United have more than 10% chance, if they take 3 (of 24) more points

Tottenham have clinched CL, if they take 19 (of 24) more points

Tottenham have more than 99% chance, if they take 17 (of 24) more points

Tottenham have more than 95% chance, if they take 16 (of 24) more points

Tottenham have more than 90% chance, if they take 15 (of 24) more points

Tottenham have more than 50% chance, if they take 12 (of 24) more points

Tottenham have more than 10% chance, if they take 8 (of 24) more points

Tottenham have more than 5% chance, if they take 6 (of 24) more points

Tottenham have more than 1% chance, if they take 5 (of 24) more points

Liverpool have clinched CL, if they take 17 (of 21) more points

Liverpool have more than 99% chance, if they take 15 (of 21) more points

Liverpool have more than 95% chance, if they take 14 (of 21) more points

Liverpool have more than 90% chance, if they take 13 (of 21) more points

Liverpool have more than 50% chance, if they take 9 (of 21) more points

Liverpool have more than 10% chance, if they take 6 (of 21) more points

Liverpool have more than 5% chance, if they take 5 (of 21) more points

Chelsea have more than 99% chance, if they take 24 (of 24) more points

Chelsea have more than 90% chance, if they take 22 (of 24) more points

Chelsea have more than 50% chance, if they take 19 (of 24) more points

Chelsea have more than 10% chance, if they take 16 (of 24) more points

Chelsea have more than 5% chance, if they take 15 (of 24) more points

Chelsea have more than 1% chance, if they take 13 (of 24) more points

Chelsea have chance, if they take 9 (of 24) more points

Arsenal have more than 5% chance, if they take 24 (of 24) more points

Arsenal have chance, if they take 20 (of 24) more points

PL: Liverpool thrashed Watford

As expected Liverpool won against Watford are now having the same average number of points as Tottenham in our random simulations. Chelsea are trailing behind more than 4 points on average:


Expected Outcome

Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	98	104-28	100	100
Man United	81	75-31	0.0121	98.6
Tottenham	76.5	75-34	0.0001	84.7
Liverpool	76.5	87-42	0	87.6
Chelsea	72.1	69-35	0	29.1
Arsenal	62.9	70-50	0	0.064

Man United 99.7% if they take at least 11 (of 24) more points, otherwise 79%

Man United 99.89% if they take at least 12 (of 24) more points, otherwise 86%

Man United 99.96% if they take at least 13 (of 24) more points, otherwise 90%

Tottenham 94% if they take at least 13 (of 24) more points, otherwise 43%

Tottenham 97% if they take at least 14 (of 24) more points, otherwise 53%

Tottenham 98.3% if they take at least 15 (of 24) more points, otherwise 62%

Liverpool 96% if they take at least 11 (of 21) more points, otherwise 50%

Liverpool 97% if they take at least 12 (of 21) more points, otherwise 60%

Liverpool 98.6% if they take at least 13 (of 21) more points, otherwise 68%

Chelsea 55% if they take at least 17 (of 24) more points, otherwise 5.8%

Chelsea 64% if they take at least 18 (of 24) more points, otherwise 9.2%

Chelsea 73% if they take at least 19 (of 24) more points, otherwise 13%

Arsenal 1.1% if they take at least 21 (of 24) more points, otherwise 0.003%

Arsenal 2.1% if they take at least 22 (of 24) more points, otherwise 0.01%

Arsenal 6.6% if they take at least 23 (of 24) more points, otherwise 0.03%

CL: Quarter-finals

Updated chances after draw for quarter-finals:

Team	Semi	Final	Champion
Barcelona	74%	46%	23%
Real Madrid	63%	39%	19%
Bayern	74%	34%	17%
Man City	64%	33%	16%
Juventus	37%	19%	9%
Liverpool	36%	13%	7%
Roma	26%	10%	5%
Sevilla	26%	7%	3%

CL: Round of 16

With round of 16 completed and the eight quart-finalists decided, we can notice that no big surprises this year. In August, five teams were predicted a greater than 50% chance to reach quarter-final and four of them did it: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern and Juventus. Atletico failed already in the group stage, and so did Monaco as well (40%). Man United (39%) and Paris SG (39%) were other favourites not making it; in the latter case partly due to a touch draw. Liverpool were predicted 9th highest chance to reach quarter-final (39%), Man City 12th with 35%, Sevilla 13th (35%) and Roma was the biggest surprise, ranked 15th with a 23% chance.


Below are the chance curves for the 16 teams in round of 16. As clear in this figure with half an hour left to play, Man United and Tottenham still had a fair chance to win the championship but were knocked out. Other matches were more less killed earlier than that.

Here are the predicted chances for the remaining eight teams:

Team	Semi	Final	Champion
Barcelona	65%	41%	24%
Real Madrid	65%	41%	24%
Man City	56%	30%	15%
Bayern	53%	26%	12%
Juventus	52%	26%	12%
Liverpool	41%	16%	6%
Roma	39%	14%	5%
Sevilla	28%	7%	2%

CL: Sevilla knock out Man United

With two matches left of the round of 16, the chance curves look like this

PL: Liverpool lost at Old Trafford

Expected Outcome

Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	97.1	104-29	100	100
Man United	81	75-31	0.0494	98.7
Tottenham	76.5	75-34	0.0003	85.9
Liverpool	75.8	85-43	0.0001	82.9
Chelsea	72.1	69-35	0	32.4
Arsenal	62.9	70-50	0	0.0839

Man United won against Liverpool and now have a predicted chance of 98.7% (+1.4%) to finish top 4. Liverpool slipped down to fourth place with 82.9% (-6.5%). Tottenham gained some chance and now have 85.9% (+6.3%), while Chelsea lost some chance 32.4 (-1.3%) despite a winning.

Man United 99.6% if they take at least 10 (of 24) more points, otherwise 71%

Man United 99.8% if they take at least 11 (of 24) more points, otherwise 81%

Man United 99.91% if they take at least 12 (of 24) more points, otherwise 87%

Tottenham 95% if they take at least 13 (of 24) more points, otherwise 46%

Tottenham 97% if they take at least 14 (of 24) more points, otherwise 56%

Tottenham 98.7% if they take at least 15 (of 24) more points, otherwise 65%

Liverpool 95% if they take at least 14 (of 24) more points, otherwise 46%

Liverpool 97% if they take at least 15 (of 24) more points, otherwise 56%

Liverpool 98.3% if they take at least 16 (of 24) more points, otherwise 63%

Chelsea 60% if they take at least 17 (of 24) more points, otherwise 7.8%

Chelsea 69% if they take at least 18 (of 24) more points, otherwise 12%

Chelsea 77% if they take at least 19 (of 24) more points, otherwise 16%

Arsenal 0.98% if they take at least 20 (of 24) more points, otherwise 0.003%

Arsenal 1.4% if they take at least 21 (of 24) more points, otherwise 0.006%

Arsenal 2.6% if they take at least 22 (of 24) more points, otherwise 0.02%

Premier League

Here are our predictions of Premier League with nine matches left. We have simulated the remaining matches a million times and the table below shows the average outcome, taking into account home advantage and whether teams schedules easier or tougher.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	97.1	104-29	100	100
Man United	79.8	75-32	0.027	97.3
Liverpool	76.8	85-42	0.0007	89.2
Tottenham	75.3	73-34	0.0001	79.6
Chelsea	71.6	70-35	0	33.7
Arsenal	62.2	70-51	0	0.118

Chelsea, for example, is expected to take 18.6 points during the remaining nine matches, while Tottenham is expected to take 17.3 points (as they have slightly tougher schedule)

Table below shows some scenarios. For example, if Tottenham take at least 17 points (as expected), they finish within top-4 in 97% of the simulations.

Man United 99.7% if they take at least 14 more points (of 27), otherwise 80%

Man United 99.4% if they take at least 13 more points (of 27), otherwise 71%

Man United 99.9% if they take at least 15 more points (of 27), otherwise 86%

Liverpool 98.3% if they take at least 15 more points (of 27), otherwise 63%

Liverpool 97% if they take at least 14 more points (of 27), otherwise 54%

Liverpool 99.2% if they take at least 16 more points (of 27), otherwise 71%

Tottenham 94% if they take at least 16 more points (of 27), otherwise 45%

Tottenham 97% if they take at least 17 more points (of 27), otherwise 53%

Tottenham 92% if they take at least 15 more points (of 27), otherwise 36%

Chelsea 66% if they take at least 20 more points (of 27), otherwise 11%

Chelsea 74% if they take at least 21 more points (of 27), otherwise 15%

Chelsea 57% if they take at least 19 more points (of 27), otherwise 6.8%

Arsenal 2.6% if they take at least 24 more points (of 27), otherwise 0.015%

Arsenal 1.8% if they take at least 23 more points (of 27), otherwise 0.0072%

Arsenal 4.6% if they take at least 25 more points (of 27), otherwise 0.034%

CL: Juventus come back in London

Juventus were down for counting with a goal by Son for Tottenham in the end of first half. Juventus chances to win the tournament were down to below 1 in 150, but with two quick goals in the middle of second half they flipped the pancake and now stand 1 in 8 chance.

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	100%	65%	41%	25%
Barcelona	71%	46%	29%	17%
Man City	100%	56%	30%	15%
Bayern	100%	53%	26%	12%
Juventus	100%	52%	26%	12%
Liverpool	100%	41%	16%	6%
Man United	65%	30%	13%	5%
Chelsea	29%	14%	6%	3%
Roma	51%	20%	7%	3%
Shakhtar	49%	12%	3%	<1%
Sevilla	35%	10%	3%	<1%
Besiktas	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

CL: Real Madrid and Liverpool through to quarter-finals

Real Madrid clinched quarter-final with their goal early in second half. Liverpool could not lose their five-goal advatage from first leg.

Figure shows how teams' chances to win the tournament have changed over time.