PL: Predictions after week 28

Predictions after week 28:

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	90.8	87-24	51.1	99.9
Man City	90.2	99-29	48.6	99.9
Tottenham	79.6	76-40	0.291	90.3
Chelsea	73.9	69-41	0.0041	38.4
Arsenal	73.8	79-50	0.0008	39.1
Man United	73.2	74-48	0.0004	32.2

Tottenham lost the derby against Chelsea and the premiership race is now a two-horse race; Liverpool or Man City win the league with 99.7% certainty. Both teams won and City still trailing 0.6 points behind Liverpool in expected points.

Tottenham down to 90.3% chance for top 4. If they take 18 (of 30) points, they have >95% chance to reach CL.

Chelsea climb ahead of Arsenal with their win against Tottenham. If Chelsea take 23 (of 33 points), they have >50% chance to reach CL.

Similarly, Arsenal have >50% chance to reach CL, if they take 20 (of 30) points.

United need 21 (of 30) points to have >50% to reach CL.

PL: Predictions

Here is the average table in our simulations

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	90.3	85-25	50.5	99.9
Man City	89.7	101-30	48.3	99.9
Tottenham	80.8	78-40	1.17	95.5
Arsenal	73	76-50	0	40.5
Chelsea	72.5	69-43	0.003	34.2
Man United	71.9	73-48	0.002	29.8

Liverpool have >99% chance on top 4, if they take another 12 (of 33) points.
City have >99% chance on top 4, if they take another 13 (of 33) points.
Tottenham have >95% chance on top 4, if they take another 18 (of 33) points.
Arsenal have >50% chance on top 4, if they take another 22 (of 33) points.
Chelsea have >50% chance on top 4, if they take another 25 (of 33) points.
United have >50% chance on top 4, if they take another 23 (of 33) points.

CL: Round of 16 - after 1st Leg

Here are the probabilities the for the different teams to reach the different stages (quarterfinals, semifinals, et cetera). After Man City's two late goals, which essentially secured their spot in the quarterfinals, they are now the favourites to win the tournament just before Barcelona.

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Man City	97%	61%	37%	21%
Barcelona	79%	53%	34%	21%
Real Madrid	91%	47%	23%	11%
Tottenham	95%	47%	22%	10%
Atletico	81%	41%	19%	9%
Paris SG	93%	44%	19%	8%
Liverpool	49%	27%	14%	7%
Bayern	51%	27%	14%	7%
Juventus	19%	11%	6%	3%
Porto	45%	14%	4%	1%
Roma	55%	14%	4%	1%
Man United	7%	3%	<1%	<1%
Lyon	21%	5%	1%	<1%
Dortmund	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
Ajax	9%	3%	<1%	<1%
Schalke	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Man City, Tottenham, Paris SG and Real Madrid have more or less
clinched their spots in the quarterfinals, whereas the four other
matches are more open. Juventus are in a deep hole trying to turn
around 2-0 against Atletic. Barcelona are still favourites against
Lyon and Liverpool vs Bayern is very much fifty-fifty.

Below is a figure showing how the chances for the different teams have evolved over the 90 minutes.

CL: Prediction round of last 16 - Wednesday

Schalke (14%) - Man City (86%)

Schalke are clearly underdog against Man City. A draw would be a good result and actually increase their chances unless they score too many goals.

Chance		Result				Chance	Probability
58%	Schalke	2	-	0	Man City	42%	(3%)
49%	Schalke	3	-	1	Man City	51%	(2%)
39%	Schalke	1	-	0	Man City	61%	(5%)
30%	Schalke	2	-	1	Man City	70%	(6%)
25%	Schalke	3	-	2	Man City	75%	(2%)
21%	Schalke	0	-	0	Man City	79%	(4%)
16%	Schalke	1	-	1	Man City	84%	(10%)
11%	Schalke	2	-	2	Man City	89%	(6%)
9%	Schalke	3	-	3	Man City	91%	(1%)
7%	Schalke	0	-	1	Man City	93%	(9%)
5%	Schalke	1	-	2	Man City	95%	(10%)
3%	Schalke	2	-	3	Man City	97%	(4%)
2%	Schalke	0	-	2	Man City	98%	(9%)
1%	Schalke	1	-	3	Man City	99%	(7%)
1%	Schalke	2	-	4	Man City	99%	(2%)
0%	Schalke	0	-	3	Man City	100%	(6%)
0%	Schalke	1	-	4	Man City	100%	(3%)
0%	Schalke	0	-	4	Man City	100%	(3%)
0%	Schalke	1	-	5	Man City	100%	(1%)
0%	Schalke	0	-	5	Man City	100%	(1%)

Atletico (42%) - Juventus (58%)

This is tight match between recent finalists. Atletico  starts at home and need to win to increase their chances.

Chance		Result				Chance	Probability
97%	Atletico	4	-	0	Juventus	3%	(1%)
91%	Atletico	3	-	0	Juventus	9%	(4%)
87%	Atletico	4	-	1	Juventus	13%	(2%)
81%	Atletico	2	-	0	Juventus	19%	(7%)
73%	Atletico	3	-	1	Juventus	27%	(5%)
69%	Atletico	4	-	2	Juventus	31%	(1%)
64%	Atletico	1	-	0	Juventus	36%	(8%)
54%	Atletico	2	-	1	Juventus	46%	(9%)
48%	Atletico	3	-	2	Juventus	52%	(3%)
43%	Atletico	0	-	0	Juventus	57%	(5%)
35%	Atletico	1	-	1	Juventus	65%	(11%)
27%	Atletico	2	-	2	Juventus	73%	(6%)
24%	Atletico	3	-	3	Juventus	76%	(2%)
20%	Atletico	0	-	1	Juventus	80%	(7%)
15%	Atletico	1	-	2	Juventus	85%	(8%)
11%	Atletico	2	-	3	Juventus	89%	(3%)
7%	Atletico	0	-	2	Juventus	93%	(5%)
5%	Atletico	1	-	3	Juventus	95%	(4%)
2%	Atletico	0	-	3	Juventus	98%	(2%)
1%	Atletico	1	-	4	Juventus	99%	(1%)

CL: Predictions Tuesday

Liverpool (51%) vs Bayern (49%)

This is the most uncertain match in the round of 16. As table shows below, Liverpool need to win to stay favourites.

Chance		Result				Chance	Probability
98%	Liverpool	4	-	0	Bayern	2%	(2%)
96%	Liverpool	5	-	1	Bayern	4%	(1%)
94%	Liverpool	3	-	0	Bayern	6%	(5%)
90%	Liverpool	4	-	1	Bayern	10%	(3%)
85%	Liverpool	2	-	0	Bayern	15%	(8%)
78%	Liverpool	3	-	1	Bayern	22%	(6%)
75%	Liverpool	4	-	2	Bayern	25%	(2%)
70%	Liverpool	1	-	0	Bayern	30%	(8%)
61%	Liverpool	2	-	1	Bayern	39%	(10%)
54%	Liverpool	3	-	2	Bayern	46%	(4%)
49%	Liverpool	0	-	0	Bayern	51%	(5%)
41%	Liverpool	1	-	1	Bayern	59%	(11%)
33%	Liverpool	2	-	2	Bayern	67%	(6%)
29%	Liverpool	3	-	3	Bayern	71%	(2%)
25%	Liverpool	0	-	1	Bayern	75%	(6%)
18%	Liverpool	1	-	2	Bayern	82%	(7%)
14%	Liverpool	2	-	3	Bayern	86%	(3%)
10%	Liverpool	0	-	2	Bayern	90%	(4%)
6%	Liverpool	1	-	3	Bayern	94%	(3%)
3%	Liverpool	0	-	3	Bayern	97%	(2%)

Lyon (13%) vs Barcelona (87%)

Lyon are predicted to have a small chance against Barcelona. 0-0 would be a good result for Lyon and even with 1-1 they would  increase their chances.

Chance		Result				Chance	Probability
57%	Lyon	2	-	0	Barcelona	43%	(3%)
48%	Lyon	3	-	1	Barcelona	52%	(2%)
38%	Lyon	1	-	0	Barcelona	62%	(5%)
29%	Lyon	2	-	1	Barcelona	71%	(5%)
24%	Lyon	3	-	2	Barcelona	76%	(2%)
21%	Lyon	0	-	0	Barcelona	79%	(4%)
15%	Lyon	1	-	1	Barcelona	85%	(10%)
11%	Lyon	2	-	2	Barcelona	89%	(6%)
9%	Lyon	3	-	3	Barcelona	91%	(1%)
7%	Lyon	0	-	1	Barcelona	93%	(9%)
5%	Lyon	1	-	2	Barcelona	95%	(10%)
3%	Lyon	2	-	3	Barcelona	97%	(4%)
2%	Lyon	0	-	2	Barcelona	98%	(9%)
1%	Lyon	1	-	3	Barcelona	99%	(7%)
1%	Lyon	2	-	4	Barcelona	99%	(2%)
0%	Lyon	0	-	3	Barcelona	100%	(6%)
0%	Lyon	1	-	4	Barcelona	100%	(3%)
0%	Lyon	0	-	4	Barcelona	100%	(3%)
0%	Lyon	1	-	5	Barcelona	100%	(1%)
0%	Lyon	0	-	5	Barcelona	100%	(1%)

CL: Last 16 - Week 1

Figure below shows how teams' chances to win the tournament have evolved over the first 90 minutes. The two favorites, Barcelona and Man City, haven't played yet. Real Madrid climbed and passed Juventus with with a good result against Ajax; increased their chances for quarterfinal from 72% to 91%. Both Tottenham and PSG had difficult matches (58% and 60%, respectively) and with their very good results in the first match, they have virtually secured (95% and 93%, respectively) spots in the quarterfinals and thereby increased probability to win the tournament.

CL: predictions Last 16 - Wednesday

Ajax (28%) vs Real Madrid (72%)

As usual a scoreless match in Amsterdam will increase the chances for Ajax whereas other draws or losses decrease the chances for Ajax.

Chance		Result				Chance	Probability
86%	Ajax	3	-	0	Real Madrid	14%	(2%)
80%	Ajax	4	-	1	Real Madrid	20%	(1%)
72%	Ajax	2	-	0	Real Madrid	28%	(5%)
63%	Ajax	3	-	1	Real Madrid	37%	(4%)
53%	Ajax	1	-	0	Real Madrid	47%	(7%)
43%	Ajax	2	-	1	Real Madrid	57%	(8%)
37%	Ajax	3	-	2	Real Madrid	63%	(3%)
33%	Ajax	0	-	0	Real Madrid	67%	(5%)
26%	Ajax	1	-	1	Real Madrid	74%	(11%)
19%	Ajax	2	-	2	Real Madrid	81%	(6%)
16%	Ajax	3	-	3	Real Madrid	84%	(2%)
13%	Ajax	0	-	1	Real Madrid	87%	(8%)
9%	Ajax	1	-	2	Real Madrid	91%	(9%)
6%	Ajax	2	-	3	Real Madrid	94%	(3%)
4%	Ajax	0	-	2	Real Madrid	96%	(6%)
3%	Ajax	1	-	3	Real Madrid	97%	(5%)
2%	Ajax	2	-	4	Real Madrid	98%	(1%)
1%	Ajax	0	-	3	Real Madrid	99%	(3%)
1%	Ajax	1	-	4	Real Madrid	99%	(2%)
0%	Ajax	0	-	4	Real Madrid	100%	(1%)

Tottenham (58%) vs Dortmund (42%)

Tottenham are favorites against Dortmund. They need to win to increase their chances. A scoress match at Wembley decreases their chances from 58% to 54%.

Chance		Result				Chance	Probability
98%	Tottenham	4	-	0	Dortmund	2%	(3%)
97%	Tottenham	5	-	1	Dortmund	3%	(1%)
95%	Tottenham	3	-	0	Dortmund	5%	(5%)
92%	Tottenham	4	-	1	Dortmund	8%	(3%)
88%	Tottenham	2	-	0	Dortmund	12%	(8%)
82%	Tottenham	3	-	1	Dortmund	18%	(6%)
79%	Tottenham	4	-	2	Dortmund	21%	(2%)
74%	Tottenham	1	-	0	Dortmund	26%	(9%)
66%	Tottenham	2	-	1	Dortmund	34%	(10%)
59%	Tottenham	3	-	2	Dortmund	41%	(4%)
54%	Tottenham	0	-	0	Dortmund	46%	(5%)
46%	Tottenham	1	-	1	Dortmund	54%	(10%)
38%	Tottenham	2	-	2	Dortmund	62%	(6%)
34%	Tottenham	3	-	3	Dortmund	66%	(1%)
29%	Tottenham	0	-	1	Dortmund	71%	(5%)
22%	Tottenham	1	-	2	Dortmund	78%	(6%)
17%	Tottenham	2	-	3	Dortmund	83%	(2%)
12%	Tottenham	0	-	2	Dortmund	88%	(3%)
8%	Tottenham	1	-	3	Dortmund	92%	(2%)
4%	Tottenham	0	-	3	Dortmund	96%	(1%)

CL: Predictions Last 16 - Tuesday

Roma (43%) vs Porto (57%)

Porto are favorites here in our predictions. Roma need to win or play 0-0 in the first match to keep their chances at 43%. Table below shows the chances for the team given different results in the first match.

Chance		Result				Chance	Probability
97%	Roma	4	-	0	Porto	3%	(2%)
91%	Roma	3	-	0	Porto	9%	(4%)
87%	Roma	4	-	1	Porto	13%	(2%)
81%	Roma	2	-	0	Porto	19%	(7%)
74%	Roma	3	-	1	Porto	26%	(5%)
70%	Roma	4	-	2	Porto	30%	(1%)
64%	Roma	1	-	0	Porto	36%	(8%)
55%	Roma	2	-	1	Porto	45%	(9%)
48%	Roma	3	-	2	Porto	52%	(3%)
43%	Roma	0	-	0	Porto	57%	(5%)
36%	Roma	1	-	1	Porto	64%	(11%)
28%	Roma	2	-	2	Porto	72%	(6%)
24%	Roma	3	-	3	Porto	76%	(2%)
21%	Roma	0	-	1	Porto	79%	(7%)
15%	Roma	1	-	2	Porto	85%	(8%)
11%	Roma	2	-	3	Porto	89%	(3%)
8%	Roma	0	-	2	Porto	92%	(5%)
5%	Roma	1	-	3	Porto	95%	(3%)
2%	Roma	0	-	3	Porto	98%	(2%)
1%	Roma	1	-	4	Porto	99%	(1%)

Man United (40%) vs Paris SG (60%). Man United increase thei rchance sif they win or play 0-0 as detailed in table below.

Chance		Result				Chance	Probability
96%	Man United	4	-	0	Paris SG	4%	(1%)
91%	Man United	3	-	0	Paris SG	9%	(3%)
86%	Man United	4	-	1	Paris SG	14%	(2%)
80%	Man United	2	-	0	Paris SG	20%	(6%)
72%	Man United	3	-	1	Paris SG	28%	(5%)
68%	Man United	4	-	2	Paris SG	32%	(1%)
62%	Man United	1	-	0	Paris SG	38%	(8%)
53%	Man United	2	-	1	Paris SG	47%	(9%)
47%	Man United	3	-	2	Paris SG	53%	(3%)
42%	Man United	0	-	0	Paris SG	58%	(5%)
34%	Man United	1	-	1	Paris SG	66%	(11%)
26%	Man United	2	-	2	Paris SG	74%	(6%)
23%	Man United	3	-	3	Paris SG	77%	(2%)
19%	Man United	0	-	1	Paris SG	81%	(7%)
14%	Man United	1	-	2	Paris SG	86%	(8%)
10%	Man United	2	-	3	Paris SG	90%	(3%)
7%	Man United	0	-	2	Paris SG	93%	(5%)
4%	Man United	1	-	3	Paris SG	96%	(4%)
2%	Man United	0	-	3	Paris SG	98%	(2%)
1%	Man United	1	-	4	Paris SG	99%	(1%)