CL: Round of 16: Predictions after leg 1

The plot below shows how the chances have evolved over the first 90 minutesm Liverpools chances declined from 35% to 24%, while Man City now are 2nd favourites after turning around their match in Madrid.

Here are the predicted chances different teams reach the different stages.

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champions
Liverpool	58%	46%	35%	24%
Man City	87%	58%	35%	19%
Bayern	99%	59%	32%	16%
Barcelona	81%	51%	30%	16%
Juventus	55%	27%	12%	5%
Paris SG	48%	24%	10%	4%
Atletico	42%	19%	8%	3%
RB Leipzig	74%	28%	9%	3%
Dortmund	52%	21%	7%	2%
Atalanta	88%	29%	8%	2%
Real Madrid	13%	7%	4%	2%
Tottenham	26%	11%	4%	1%
Napoli	19%	6%	2%	< 1%
Valencia	12%	4%	1%	< 1%
Lyon	45%	10%	2%	< 1%
Chelsea	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

CL: Leg 1: Real - City and Lyon - Juventus

Manchester City are 61% favourites against Real Madrid. To increase their chances they need at least 1-1 away in Madrid.

Chance	Team	Result			Team	Chance	Probability
96%	Real Madrid	4	-	0	Man City	4%	1%
90%	Real Madrid	3	-	0	Man City	10%	3%
86%	Real Madrid	4	-	1	Man City	14%	2%
79%	Real Madrid	2	-	0	Man City	21%	6%
71%	Real Madrid	3	-	1	Man City	29%	5%
67%	Real Madrid	4	-	2	Man City	33%	1%
61%	Real Madrid	1	-	0	Man City	39%	8%
52%	Real Madrid	2	-	1	Man City	48%	9%
45%	Real Madrid	3	-	2	Man City	55%	3%
40%	Real Madrid	0	-	0	Man City	60%	5%
33%	Real Madrid	1	-	1	Man City	67%	11%
25%	Real Madrid	2	-	2	Man City	75%	6%
22%	Real Madrid	3	-	3	Man City	78%	2%
18%	Real Madrid	0	-	1	Man City	82%	7%
13%	Real Madrid	1	-	2	Man City	87%	8%
9%	Real Madrid	2	-	3	Man City	91%	3%
6%	Real Madrid	0	-	2	Man City	94%	5%
4%	Real Madrid	1	-	3	Man City	96%	4%
2%	Real Madrid	0	-	3	Man City	98%	2%
1%	Real Madrid	1	-	4	Man City	99%	1%

Juventus are 80% favourites against Lyon. They need at least 1-1 not to decrease their chances.

Chance	Team	Result			Team	Chance	Probability
81%	Lyon	3	-	0	Juventus	19%	2%
65%	Lyon	2	-	0	Juventus	35%	4%
56%	Lyon	3	-	1	Juventus	44%	3%
45%	Lyon	1	-	0	Juventus	55%	6%
36%	Lyon	2	-	1	Juventus	64%	7%
31%	Lyon	3	-	2	Juventus	69%	2%
26%	Lyon	0	-	0	Juventus	74%	5%
20%	Lyon	1	-	1	Juventus	80%	11%
15%	Lyon	2	-	2	Juventus	85%	6%
12%	Lyon	3	-	3	Juventus	88%	1%
10%	Lyon	0	-	1	Juventus	90%	9%
7%	Lyon	1	-	2	Juventus	93%	10%
4%	Lyon	2	-	3	Juventus	96%	4%
3%	Lyon	0	-	2	Juventus	97%	8%
2%	Lyon	1	-	3	Juventus	98%	6%
1%	Lyon	2	-	4	Juventus	99%	2%
< 1%	Lyon	0	-	3	Juventus	99%	5%
< 1%	Lyon	1	-	4	Juventus	100%	3%
< 1%	Lyon	0	-	4	Juventus	100%	2%
< 1%	Lyon	1	-	5	Juventus	100%	< 1%

CL: Leg 1: Bayern - Chelsea and Napoli - Barcelona

Bayern are 66% favourites against Chelsea. They need at least 1-1 to keep that probability.

Chance	Team	Result			Team	Chance	Probability
88%	Chelsea	3	-	0	Bayern	12%	3%
84%	Chelsea	4	-	1	Bayern	16%	2%
76%	Chelsea	2	-	0	Bayern	24%	6%
68%	Chelsea	3	-	1	Bayern	32%	4%
64%	Chelsea	4	-	2	Bayern	36%	1%
58%	Chelsea	1	-	0	Bayern	42%	7%
48%	Chelsea	2	-	1	Bayern	52%	8%
42%	Chelsea	3	-	2	Bayern	58%	3%
37%	Chelsea	0	-	0	Bayern	63%	5%
30%	Chelsea	1	-	1	Bayern	70%	11%
23%	Chelsea	2	-	2	Bayern	77%	6%
20%	Chelsea	3	-	3	Bayern	80%	2%
16%	Chelsea	0	-	1	Bayern	84%	7%
11%	Chelsea	1	-	2	Bayern	89%	8%
8%	Chelsea	2	-	3	Bayern	92%	3%
5%	Chelsea	0	-	2	Bayern	95%	6%
3%	Chelsea	1	-	3	Bayern	97%	4%
2%	Chelsea	2	-	4	Bayern	98%	1%
1%	Chelsea	0	-	3	Bayern	99%	3%
< 1%	Chelsea	1	-	4	Bayern	99%	2%

Barcelona are 81% favourites against Napoli. They need at least 1-1 in Naples to keep that probability.

Chance	Team	Result			Team	Chance	Probability
80%	Napoli	3	-	0	Barcelona	20%	1%
64%	Napoli	2	-	0	Barcelona	36%	3%
55%	Napoli	3	-	1	Barcelona	45%	3%
44%	Napoli	1	-	0	Barcelona	56%	6%
35%	Napoli	2	-	1	Barcelona	65%	6%
29%	Napoli	3	-	2	Barcelona	71%	2%
25%	Napoli	0	-	0	Barcelona	75%	5%
19%	Napoli	1	-	1	Barcelona	81%	11%
14%	Napoli	2	-	2	Barcelona	86%	6%
12%	Napoli	3	-	3	Barcelona	88%	1%
9%	Napoli	0	-	1	Barcelona	91%	9%
6%	Napoli	1	-	2	Barcelona	94%	10%
4%	Napoli	2	-	3	Barcelona	96%	4%
3%	Napoli	0	-	2	Barcelona	97%	8%
2%	Napoli	1	-	3	Barcelona	98%	6%
< 1%	Napoli	2	-	4	Barcelona	99%	2%
< 1%	Napoli	0	-	3	Barcelona	99%	5%
< 1%	Napoli	1	-	4	Barcelona	100%	3%
< 1%	Napoli	0	-	4	Barcelona	100%	2%
< 1%	Napoli	1	-	5	Barcelona	100%	1%

CL: Round of 16: Prediction after week 1

Below are the predictions after week 1 of round of 16

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champions
Liverpool	58%	46%	36%	25%
Barcelona	81%	52%	31%	16%
Man City	61%	41%	25%	14%
Bayern	66%	39%	21%	11%
Juventus	80%	41%	19%	8%
Real Madrid	39%	21%	11%	5%
Paris SG	48%	24%	11%	4%
Atletico	42%	19%	8%	3%
RB Leipzig	74%	28%	10%	3%
Dortmund	52%	21%	7%	3%
Atalanta	88%	28%	8%	2%
Chelsea	34%	15%	6%	2%
Tottenham	26%	11%	4%	1%
Valencia	12%	4%	1%	< 1%
Napoli	19%	6%	2%	< 1%
Lyon	20%	4%	< 1%	< 1%

CL: Leg 1 Tottenham - Leipzig and Atalanta - Valencia

Tottenham are marginal favorites against Leipzig with 53% chance. They need to win the first leg to increase their chances.

Chance	Team	Result			Team	Chance	Probability
98%	Tottenham	4	-	0	RB Leipzig	2%	2%
97%	Tottenham	5	-	1	RB Leipzig	3%	< 1%
94%	Tottenham	3	-	0	RB Leipzig	6%	5%
91%	Tottenham	4	-	1	RB Leipzig	9%	3%
86%	Tottenham	2	-	0	RB Leipzig	14%	8%
80%	Tottenham	3	-	1	RB Leipzig	20%	6%
76%	Tottenham	4	-	2	RB Leipzig	24%	2%
71%	Tottenham	1	-	0	RB Leipzig	29%	9%
62%	Tottenham	2	-	1	RB Leipzig	38%	10%
56%	Tottenham	3	-	2	RB Leipzig	44%	4%
51%	Tottenham	0	-	0	RB Leipzig	49%	5%
43%	Tottenham	1	-	1	RB Leipzig	57%	11%
34%	Tottenham	2	-	2	RB Leipzig	66%	6%
31%	Tottenham	3	-	3	RB Leipzig	69%	1%
26%	Tottenham	0	-	1	RB Leipzig	74%	6%
20%	Tottenham	1	-	2	RB Leipzig	80%	6%
15%	Tottenham	2	-	3	RB Leipzig	85%	2%
11%	Tottenham	0	-	2	RB Leipzig	89%	4%
7%	Tottenham	1	-	3	RB Leipzig	93%	3%
3%	Tottenham	0	-	3	RB Leipzig	97%	1%

Valencia are favorites against Atalanta with 55% chance. They need a draw to keep their chances at 55%.

Chance	Team	Result			Team	Chance	Probability
97%	Atalanta	4	-	0	Valencia	3%	2%
92%	Atalanta	3	-	0	Valencia	8%	4%
88%	Atalanta	4	-	1	Valencia	12%	2%
82%	Atalanta	2	-	0	Valencia	18%	7%
75%	Atalanta	3	-	1	Valencia	25%	5%
71%	Atalanta	4	-	2	Valencia	29%	1%
66%	Atalanta	1	-	0	Valencia	34%	8%
57%	Atalanta	2	-	1	Valencia	43%	9%
50%	Atalanta	3	-	2	Valencia	50%	3%
45%	Atalanta	0	-	0	Valencia	55%	5%
37%	Atalanta	1	-	1	Valencia	63%	11%
29%	Atalanta	2	-	2	Valencia	71%	6%
26%	Atalanta	3	-	3	Valencia	74%	2%
22%	Atalanta	0	-	1	Valencia	78%	7%
16%	Atalanta	1	-	2	Valencia	84%	7%
12%	Atalanta	2	-	3	Valencia	88%	3%
8%	Atalanta	0	-	2	Valencia	92%	4%
5%	Atalanta	1	-	3	Valencia	95%	3%
2%	Atalanta	0	-	3	Valencia	98%	2%
1%	Atalanta	1	-	4	Valencia	99%	1%

CL: Leg 1 Atletic - Liverpool and Dortmund - PSG

Liverpool are 84% favorites against Atletico. Below are the chances for the teams given different results in the first leg. They need a 2-2 draw or better result to keep their chance at 84%.

Chance	Team	Result			Team	Chance	Probability
78%	Atletico	3	-	0	Liverpool	22%	1%
61%	Atletico	2	-	0	Liverpool	39%	3%
52%	Atletico	3	-	1	Liverpool	48%	2%
42%	Atletico	1	-	0	Liverpool	58%	5%
33%	Atletico	2	-	1	Liverpool	67%	6%
27%	Atletico	3	-	2	Liverpool	73%	2%
24%	Atletico	0	-	0	Liverpool	76%	5%
18%	Atletico	1	-	1	Liverpool	82%	10%
13%	Atletico	2	-	2	Liverpool	87%	6%
11%	Atletico	3	-	3	Liverpool	89%	1%
8%	Atletico	0	-	1	Liverpool	92%	9%
6%	Atletico	1	-	2	Liverpool	94%	10%
4%	Atletico	2	-	3	Liverpool	96%	4%
2%	Atletico	0	-	2	Liverpool	98%	8%
1%	Atletico	1	-	3	Liverpool	99%	6%
< 1%	Atletico	2	-	4	Liverpool	99%	2%
< 1%	Atletico	0	-	3	Liverpool	100%	5%
< 1%	Atletico	1	-	4	Liverpool	100%	3%
< 1%	Atletico	0	-	4	Liverpool	100%	2%
< 1%	Atletico	1	-	5	Liverpool	100%	1%

Paris are the 60% favorites against Dortmund. Below are the chances given different results in the first leg. Paris need a 1-1 draw or better to keep their chances at 60%.

Chance	Team	Result			Team	Chance	Probability
96%	Dortmund	4	-	0	Paris SG	4%	1%
90%	Dortmund	3	-	0	Paris SG	10%	3%
86%	Dortmund	4	-	1	Paris SG	14%	2%
79%	Dortmund	2	-	0	Paris SG	21%	6%
72%	Dortmund	3	-	1	Paris SG	28%	5%
68%	Dortmund	4	-	2	Paris SG	32%	1%
62%	Dortmund	1	-	0	Paris SG	38%	8%
52%	Dortmund	2	-	1	Paris SG	48%	9%
46%	Dortmund	3	-	2	Paris SG	54%	3%
41%	Dortmund	0	-	0	Paris SG	59%	5%
34%	Dortmund	1	-	1	Paris SG	66%	11%
26%	Dortmund	2	-	2	Paris SG	74%	6%
23%	Dortmund	3	-	3	Paris SG	77%	2%
19%	Dortmund	0	-	1	Paris SG	81%	7%
14%	Dortmund	1	-	2	Paris SG	86%	8%
10%	Dortmund	2	-	3	Paris SG	90%	3%
7%	Dortmund	0	-	2	Paris SG	93%	5%
4%	Dortmund	1	-	3	Paris SG	96%	4%
2%	Dortmund	0	-	3	Paris SG	98%	2%
1%	Dortmund	1	-	4	Paris SG	99%	1%

CL: Prediction knockout stage

Below are the predictions for the knockout stage of Champions League. We notice that Man City are ranked 3rd and 7th despite playing each other, so we can conclude that is the toughest match-up in in round of 16. Likewise Valencia and Atalanta are ranked 10th and 14th, respectively, so that must be considered the weakest match-up.

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champions
Liverpool	84%	66%	51%	35%
Barcelona	81%	50%	29%	14%
Man City	61%	39%	23%	12%
Bayern	66%	38%	20%	9%
Juventus	80%	39%	17%	7%
Paris SG	60%	29%	12%	5%
Real Madrid	39%	21%	10%	4%
Tottenham	53%	21%	7%	2%
Chelsea	34%	14%	5%	2%
Valencia	55%	19%	6%	2%
RB Leipzig	47%	17%	5%	2%
Dortmund	40%	15%	5%	2%
Atletico	16%	7%	3%	1%
Atalanta	45%	14%	4%	1%
Napoli	19%	5%	1%	< 1%
Lyon	20%	4%	< 1%	< 1%