PL: more than 75% probability that Fulham, Sheffield United and West Brom will be relegated.

There is a more than 75% probability that Fulham, Sheffield United and West Brom will be relegated. 

 

Confidence (50%) Intervals

Simulated points for winner: 79 - 84
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 69
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
44	Man City	80.6	+43	< 1%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.89%	99.61%	74%
40	Liverpool	74.7	+38	< 1%	99.82%	99.51%	98.7%	96.5%	19%
41	Man United	71.2	+21	< 1%	98.4%	96.5%	93%	85%	6%
39	Leicester	64.9	+16	< 1%	85%	76%	62%	43%	< 1%
33	Tottenham	62.7	+21	< 1%	75%	63%	47%	29%	< 1%
33	Chelsea	60.7	+19	< 1%	62%	48%	32%	17%	< 1%
35	West Ham	58.9	+4	< 1%	44%	30%	18%	8%	< 1%
33	Everton	58.6	+3	< 1%	42%	29%	17%	8%	< 1%
31	Arsenal	57.9	+12	< 1%	40%	26%	15%	7%	< 1%
32	Aston Villa	57.1	+11	< 1%	34%	23%	13%	6%	< 1%
29	Southampton	53.4	+1	< 1%	12%	7%	3.1%	1.1%	< 1%
29	Leeds	51.3	-6	< 1%	6%	3.2%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Wolves	46.2	-10	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Crystal Palace	46.1	-17	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Burnley	46.0	-15	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Newcastle	41.3	-20	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Brighton	40.1	-14	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Fulham	30.5	-27	85%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	Sheffield United	26.2	-31	96.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	West Brom	25.8	-50	97.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Wolves	40%	24%	35%	Arsenal
Sheffield United	56%	22%	22%	West Brom
Man United	63%	20%	17%	Southampton
Newcastle	46%	24%	30%	Crystal Palace
Burnley	22%	22%	57%	Man City
Fulham	28%	23%	49%	Leicester
Leeds	42%	24%	33%	Everton
Aston Villa	46%	24%	31%	West Ham
Liverpool	77%	14%	9%	Brighton
Tottenham	48%	24%	29%	Chelsea

PL: 90% probability that Man City or Liverpool win the league

 We are back at a two-horse race with 90% probability that Man City or Liverpool win the league.

 

50% Confidence Intervals

Simulated points for winner: 78 - 83
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
41	Man City	79.0	+42	< 1%	99.95%	99.85%	99.55%	98.7%	67%
37	Liverpool	74.2	+38	< 1%	99.59%	98.9%	97.4%	94%	23%
38	Man United	69.4	+20	< 1%	95.6%	91%	83%	70%	5%
39	Leicester	66.5	+18	< 1%	89%	80%	67%	49%	2.0%
33	Tottenham	65.3	+24	< 1%	85%	75%	61%	42%	1.3%
33	Everton	61.7	+8	< 1%	61%	46%	30%	17%	< 1%
30	Chelsea	60.6	+19	< 1%	58%	42%	26%	14%	< 1%
35	West Ham	58.7	+4	< 1%	39%	25%	14%	7%	< 1%
30	Arsenal	57.2	+10	< 1%	31%	19%	10%	4.6%	< 1%
29	Southampton	56.1	+4	< 1%	23%	13%	7%	2.9%	< 1%
26	Aston Villa	53.1	+6	< 1%	13%	7%	3.5%	1.5%	< 1%
23	Wolves	49.2	-6	< 1%	2.5%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Leeds	48.4	-10	< 1%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Burnley	46.5	-14	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Crystal Palace	44.1	-19	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Newcastle	40.4	-21	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Brighton	38.3	-16	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Fulham	32.8	-24	68%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	West Brom	26.1	-51	95.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	Sheffield United	26.0	-33	95.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Everton	58%	21%	21%	Newcastle
Man City	82%	12%	6%	Sheffield United
West Brom	45%	24%	31%	Fulham
Crystal Palace	40%	24%	36%	Wolves
Arsenal	40%	24%	35%	Man United
Southampton	54%	22%	24%	Aston Villa
Chelsea	64%	19%	16%	Burnley
Leicester	62%	20%	18%	Leeds
West Ham	24%	22%	53%	Liverpool
Brighton	29%	24%	47%	Tottenham

PL: Burnley won at Anfield

Simulated points for winner: 77 - 83
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
38	Man City	78.3	+39	< 1%	99.90%	99.68%	99.08%	97.5%	63%
34	Liverpool	72.7	+36	< 1%	99.0%	97.4%	94%	87%	18%
38	Man United	71.8	+22	< 1%	98.0%	95.4%	90%	80%	12%
38	Leicester	66.7	+18	< 1%	88%	79%	64%	45%	2.6%
33	Tottenham	66.6	+26	< 1%	89%	79%	66%	47%	3.0%
32	Everton	62.3	+9	< 1%	64%	48%	31%	17%	< 1%
29	Chelsea	61.5	+20	< 1%	64%	47%	29%	15%	< 1%
29	Southampton	57.7	+6	< 1%	33%	19%	10%	4.4%	< 1%
32	West Ham	56.9	+3	< 1%	27%	15%	8%	3.3%	< 1%
27	Arsenal	55.4	+8	< 1%	20%	11%	5%	2.0%	< 1%
23	Aston Villa	53.0	+5	< 1%	13%	7%	3.3%	1.3%	< 1%
22	Wolves	49.0	-7	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Leeds	46.5	-11	1.8%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Crystal Palace	45.6	-17	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Burnley	45.2	-15	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Newcastle	43.1	-18	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Brighton	39.2	-15	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Fulham	32.7	-25	72%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	West Brom	26.6	-47	95.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	Sheffield United	23.4	-36	98.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Aston Villa	52%	23%	25%	Newcastle
Chelsea	58%	21%	20%	Wolves
Burnley	48%	23%	28%	Aston Villa
Brighton	55%	22%	23%	Fulham
Everton	46%	24%	30%	Leicester
Man United	75%	15%	10%	Sheffield United
Tottenham	35%	24%	41%	Liverpool

PL: Man City more than 50% chance

Man City now win the league in more than 50% of the simulations.

Simulated points for winner: 78 - 83
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
35	Man City	77.7	+39	< 1%	99.83%	99.51%	98.6%	96.5%	51%
34	Liverpool	75.1	+39	< 1%	99.61%	98.9%	97.2%	93%	30%
37	Man United	72.7	+23	< 1%	98.5%	96.3%	92%	83%	14%
33	Tottenham	66.6	+26	< 1%	89%	79%	65%	46%	2.5%
35	Leicester	65.2	+16	< 1%	82%	69%	53%	34%	1.4%
29	Chelsea	62.8	+22	< 1%	72%	56%	38%	21%	< 1%
32	Everton	62.3	+9	< 1%	64%	48%	31%	17%	< 1%
29	Southampton	57.7	+6	< 1%	33%	19%	10%	4.2%	< 1%
29	West Ham	56.1	+3	< 1%	23%	13%	6%	2.5%	< 1%
27	Arsenal	55.4	+8	< 1%	20%	11%	5%	1.9%	< 1%
23	Aston Villa	53.5	+5	< 1%	15%	8%	3.9%	1.6%	< 1%
22	Wolves	49.0	-7	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Leeds	46.5	-11	1.7%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Crystal Palace	45.6	-17	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Newcastle	43.1	-18	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Burnley	42.6	-17	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Brighton	39.1	-15	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Fulham	32.6	-25	71%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	West Brom	27.2	-48	94%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	Sheffield United	23.4	-36	98.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
West Ham	68%	18%	14%	West Brom
Leicester	43%	24%	33%	Chelsea
Man City	74%	15%	10%	Aston Villa
Fulham	22%	22%	57%	Man United
Liverpool	76%	15%	10%	Burnley
Aston Villa	52%	23%	25%	Newcastle

PL: Three-horse race

The lague race has transformed into a three-horse race with Man United up in lead, but Man City and Liverpool are still favorites.

50% Confidence intervals

Simulated points for winner: 78 - 83
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
32	Man City	77.1	+36	< 1%	99.80%	99.43%	98.5%	96.2%	44%
33	Liverpool	76.1	+40	< 1%	99.75%	99.31%	98.2%	95.5%	38%
36	Man United	72.5	+22	< 1%	98.4%	96.4%	92%	84%	14%
30	Tottenham	65.4	+24	< 1%	85%	75%	60%	42%	1.7%
32	Leicester	64.0	+15	< 1%	77%	64%	48%	30%	< 1%
32	Everton	62.3	+9	< 1%	67%	51%	35%	19%	< 1%
26	Chelsea	61.6	+22	< 1%	66%	51%	35%	19%	< 1%
29	Southampton	58.6	+7	< 1%	42%	28%	16%	8%	< 1%
26	West Ham	54.9	+3	< 1%	20%	11%	6%	2.2%	< 1%
24	Arsenal	54.4	+6	< 1%	18%	10%	4.7%	1.7%	< 1%
23	Aston Villa	53.5	+5	< 1%	16%	9%	4.7%	1.9%	< 1%
22	Wolves	51.3	-4	< 1%	7%	3.2%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Leeds	48.3	-9	< 1%	2.6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Crystal Palace	46.0	-15	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Newcastle	43.9	-16	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Burnley	43.6	-17	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Brighton	37.1	-17	29%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Fulham	33.5	-25	62%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
7	West Brom	24.8	-50	96.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	Sheffield United	24.4	-35	97.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Wolves	71%	17%	12%	West Brom
Leeds	52%	23%	25%	Brighton
West Ham	52%	23%	25%	Burnley
Fulham	23%	22%	54%	Chelsea
Leicester	53%	23%	24%	Southampton
Sheffield United	25%	23%	52%	Tottenham
Liverpool	60%	21%	19%	Man United
Man City	77%	14%	9%	Crystal Palace
Arsenal	61%	21%	19%	Newcastle
West Ham	68%	18%	14%	West Brom
Leicester	43%	24%	33%	Chelsea
Man City	74%	15%	10%	Aston Villa
Fulham	22%	22%	57%	Man United
Liverpool	76%	15%	10%	Burnley

PL: Matchday 17

 

In 50% of the simulations the champions take 77-83 points; in 25% they take more and in 25% they take less.

In 50% of the simulations the 4th team take 66-70 points. 

In 50% of the simulations the 17th team take 35-39 points.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
29	Man City	76.6	+38	< 1%	99.71%	99.26%	98.2%	95.6%	43%
33	Liverpool	76.1	+40	< 1%	99.76%	99.34%	98.3%	95.6%	40%
33	Man United	71.1	+22	< 1%	97.0%	94%	88%	78%	11%
29	Tottenham	66.7	+26	< 1%	89%	81%	70%	52%	3.3%
32	Leicester	64.0	+15	< 1%	77%	65%	49%	31%	1.1%
26	Chelsea	61.6	+22	< 1%	66%	51%	35%	20%	< 1%
29	Everton	60.4	+7	< 1%	53%	39%	24%	13%	< 1%
29	Southampton	58.6	+7	< 1%	42%	28%	16%	8%	< 1%
23	Arsenal	55.5	+7	< 1%	23%	14%	7%	2.9%	< 1%
26	West Ham	54.9	+3	< 1%	20%	11%	6%	2.3%	< 1%
23	Aston Villa	53.5	+5	< 1%	16%	9%	4.8%	2.0%	< 1%
22	Wolves	53.0	-3	< 1%	12%	6%	2.8%	1.0%	< 1%
23	Leeds	48.3	-9	< 1%	2.6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Crystal Palace	45.8	-16	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Newcastle	45.2	-15	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Burnley	44.8	-16	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Brighton	37.5	-18	27%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Fulham	33.0	-27	67%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
7	West Brom	24.8	-50	96.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Sheffield United	22.9	-35	98.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Sheffield United	41%	24%	35%	Newcastle
Wolves	49%	23%	28%	Everton
Burnley	31%	24%	45%	Man United
Man City	79%	13%	8%	Brighton
Aston Villa	35%	24%	41%	Tottenham
Arsenal	61%	20%	18%	Crystal Palace