Copa: Predictions of quarterfinals

Predictions of quarterfinals

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Brazil (100%)
		Brazil (89%)
Chile (100%)
				Brazil (81%) Peru (7%)
Peru (100%)
		Peru (53%) Paraguay (47%)
Paraguay (100%)
						Brazil (66%) Argentina (13%)
Uruguay (100%)
		Uruguay (57%) Colombia (43%)
Colombia (100%)
				Argentina (40%) Uruguay (29%) Colombia (19%)
Argentina (100%)
		Argentina (69%) Ecuador (31%)
Ecuador (100%)

 

Euro: Summary after round of 16

With the first round of the knockout stage completed we can summarise the surprises and upsets thus far. Of the eight quarter-finalists the lest expected are Czechia (17%), Ukraina (25%), and Switzerland (30%) where the percentages indicate the probability they'd reach the quarterfinals. Among the favorites beforehand, we notice Nethderlands (60%), France (58%), and Portugal (48%).

In the quarterfinals we have three 70-30 matches and Belgium is small favorite against Italy.

The most likely final is Belgium vs England, but with only seven matches left anything can happen.

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Belgium (100%)
		Belgium (62%) Italy (38%)
Italy (100%)
				Belgium (39%) Spain (31%) Italy (20%)
Switzerland (100%)
		Spain (68%) Switzerland (32%)
Spain (100%)
						England (25%) Belgium (25%) Spain (17%) Denmark (14%)
Ukraine (100%)
		England (69%) Ukraine (31%)
England (100%)
				England (47%) Denmark (34%) Ukraine (12%)
Czechia (100%)
		Denmark (73%) Czechia (27%)
Denmark (100%)

 

Euro: Spain and Switzerland through after extra time and penalties

 We have a quarterfinal between Switzerland and Spain on Friday. Spain are now 2nd favorite (18%) after Belgium (26%).

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Belgium (100%)
		Belgium (62%) Italy (38%)
Italy (100%)
				Belgium (40%) Spain (31%) Italy (20%)
Switzerland (100%)
		Spain (68%) Switzerland (32%)
Spain (100%)
						Belgium (26%) Spain (18%) England (17%) Denmark (15%)
Sweden (53%) Ukraine (47%)
		England (45%) Germany (21%) Sweden (19%)
England (67%) Germany (33%)
				Denmark (37%) England (31%) Germany (11%)
Czechia (100%)
		Denmark (73%) Czechia (27%)
Denmark (100%)

 

Euro: Czechia upset Holland

Czechia upset the Dutch and Belgium through to the quarterfinals. Belgium are favorites to win the tournament (24%), while Czechia are a dark horse on the other half.

 

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Belgium (100%)
		Belgium (62%) Italy (38%)
Italy (100%)
				Belgium (37%) France (23%) Italy (18%) Spain (17%)
France (73%) Switzerland (27%)
		France (45%) Spain (37%) Switzerland (11%)
Spain (73%) Croatia (27%)
						Belgium (24%) England (16%) Denmark (15%) France (15%)
Sweden (53%) Ukraine (47%)
		England (45%) Germany (21%) Sweden (19%)
England (67%) Germany (33%)
				Denmark (37%) England (31%) Germany (11%)
Czechia (100%)
		Denmark (73%) Czechia (27%)
Denmark (100%)

 

Euro: Denmark and italy though to the quarter-finals

Denmark and Italy through to the quarterfinals. Denmark are second favorites to reach the final on their half, after  England. Italy are third favorite to reach the final on their half, after France and Belgium

 

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Belgium (59%) Portugal (41%)
		Italy (41%) Belgium (37%) Portugal (22%)
Italy (100%)
				France (24%) Belgium (22%) Italy (20%) Spain (18%)
France (73%) Switzerland (27%)
		France (45%) Spain (37%) Switzerland (11%)
Spain (73%) Croatia (27%)
						England (16%) France (15%) Belgium (14%) Denmark (12%) Italy (11%)
Sweden (53%) Ukraine (47%)
		England (45%) Germany (20%) Sweden (19%)
England (67%) Germany (33%)
				England (30%) Denmark (30%) Netherlands (17%) Germany (10%)
Netherlands (71%) Czechia (29%)
		Denmark (58%) Netherlands (34%)
Denmark (100%)

 

Copa: Predictions for matchday 5

 Bolivia are out with zero points after three matches, and hence the other teams in group A (Argentina, Paraguay, Cila and Uruguay) have clinched a spot in quarterfinals.

In group B, Peru have almost clinched quarterfinal (97%) with 4 points; they can only miss out if they lose against Venezuela and Ecuador win against Brazil. Venezuela and Ecuador both have two points and Venezuela are trailing behind two goals worse goal difference. 

 

Country	5th	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Quarterfinal	Semifinal	Finalist	Champion
Brazil	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	88%	78%	63%
Argentina	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	90%	100%	70%	43%	14%
Uruguay	< 1%	20%	21%	54%	4%	100%	53%	24%	8%
Colombia	< 1%	8%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	50%	23%	6%
Chile	< 1%	80%	20%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	19%	6%	2%
Peru	3%	36%	2%	59%	< 1%	97%	39%	8%	2%
Paraguay	< 1%	< 1%	59%	36%	6%	100%	43%	8%	2%
Venezuela	36%	25%	3%	36%	< 1%	64%	26%	6%	1%
Ecuador	61%	31%	3%	5%	< 1%	39%	14%	5%	1%
Bolivia	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Brazil (100%)
		Brazil (88%)
Chile (80%) Uruguay (20%)
				Brazil (78%) Uruguay (6%)
Peru (59%) Venezuela (36%)
		Peru (28%) Paraguay (27%) Venezuela (17%) Uruguay (14%)
Paraguay (59%) Uruguay (21%) Chile (20%)
						Brazil (63%) Argentina (14%)
Uruguay (54%) Paraguay (36%)
		Colombia (47%) Uruguay (31%) Paraguay (13%)
Colombia (92%)
				Argentina (43%) Colombia (23%) Uruguay (18%) Paraguay (5%)
Argentina (90%)
		Argentina (63%) Peru (10%)
Peru (36%) Ecuador (31%) Venezuela (25%)

Important matches
Mutual Information
5.4803	Ecuador 2.2% if Peru win against Venezuela; otherwise 0.36%
4.61583	Venezuela 2.1% if they draw (or win) against Peru; otherwise 0.3%
3.55832	Ecuador 1.6% if Peru draw (or win) against Venezuela; otherwise 0.24%
2.84028	Venezuela 2.4% if they win against Peru; otherwise 0.81%
1.92295	Brazil 66% if Uruguay win against Paraguay; otherwise 61%
1.85229	Colombia 7% if Paraguay draw (or win) against Uruguay; otherwise 4.6%
1.78426	Ecuador 2.1% if they draw (or win) against Brazil; otherwise 0.77%
1.57835	Ecuador 3.1% if they win against Brazil; otherwise 0.89%
1.26337	Brazil 65% if Uruguay draw (or win) against Paraguay; otherwise 59%
0.983574	Argentina 16% if Paraguay draw (or win) against Uruguay; otherwise 13%

Copa: Predictions with six matches left of the group stage

Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, and Chile have clinched a spot in the quarterfinals

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Brazil (100%)
		Brazil (88%)
Paraguay (47%) Uruguay (26%) Chile (22%)
				Brazil (77%) Uruguay (10%)
Peru (59%) Venezuela (36%)
		Uruguay (29%) Peru (25%) Venezuela (16%) Chile (14%)
Uruguay (43%) Paraguay (29%) Chile (26%)
						Brazil (63%) Argentina (14%)
Chile (44%) Uruguay (25%) Paraguay (21%)
		Colombia (50%) Chile (18%) Uruguay (15%)
Colombia (92%)
				Argentina (44%) Colombia (25%) Uruguay (8%)
Argentina (88%)
		Argentina (62%) Peru (11%) Ecuador (10%)
Peru (36%) Ecuador (31%) Venezuela (25%)

 

Euro: Round of 16

Probabilities for countries to reach the different rounds. Countries are sorted with respect to their chance to win the championship.

Country	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Belgium	100%	59%	40%	24%	16%
France	100%	73%	45%	24%	16%
England	100%	55%	37%	25%	13%
Spain	100%	73%	37%	18%	11%
Italy	100%	77%	32%	15%	9%
Denmark	100%	65%	38%	20%	8%
Netherlands	100%	72%	38%	19%	7%
Portugal	100%	41%	24%	12%	7%
Germany	100%	45%	28%	14%	5%
Sweden	100%	53%	19%	8%	2%
Wales	100%	35%	15%	6%	2%
Ukraine	100%	47%	16%	6%	2%
Switzerland	100%	27%	10%	3%	1%
Croatia	100%	27%	8%	2%	< 1%
Czechia	100%	28%	9%	3%	< 1%
Austria	100%	23%	4%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Probabilities for the bracket

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Belgium (100%)
		Belgium (59%) Portugal (41%)
Portugal (100%)
				Belgium (40%) Italy (32%) Portugal (24%)
Italy (100%)
		Italy (77%) Austria (23%)
Austria (100%)
						France (24%) Belgium (24%) Spain (18%) Italy (15%)
France (100%)
		France (73%) Switzerland (27%)
Switzerland (100%)
				France (45%) Spain (37%) Switzerland (10%)
Croatia (100%)
		Spain (73%) Croatia (27%)
Spain (100%)
								Belgium (16%) France (16%) England (13%) Spain (11%) Italy (9%)
Sweden (100%)
		Sweden (53%) Ukraine (47%)
Ukraine (100%)
				England (37%) Germany (28%) Sweden (19%)
England (100%)
		England (55%) Germany (45%)
Germany (100%)
						England (25%) Denmark (20%) Netherlands (19%) Germany (14%)
Netherlands (100%)
		Netherlands (72%) Czechia (28%)
Czechia (100%)
				Netherlands (38%) Denmark (38%) Wales (15%)
Wales (100%)
		Denmark (65%) Wales (35%)
Denmark (100%)

 

Euro: Prediction group E and F

Sweden have clinched R16. They clinch group win if they win against Poland. If they draw, they win the group if Spain draw or if Spain win with one goal and score less goals than Sweden; otherwise they are 2nd. If Sweden lose against Poland, they are third, if Spain or Slovakia win their match; if Spain and Slovakia draw Sweden are 2nd if they lose with one goal and score at least one goal.

Group E	MP	GD			Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Spain	2	1	-	1	2	7%	9%	36%	48%	91%	66%	37%	20%	11%
Sweden	2	1	-	0	4	< 1%	34%	21%	45%	100%	42%	14%	5%	1%
Slovakia	2	2	-	2	3	29%	56%	12%	4%	18%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Poland	2	2	-	3	1	64%	1%	31%	3%	34%	16%	5%	1%	< 1%

Slovakia clinch R16 if they take a point against Spain. If they lose with more than two goals they are out; if they lose with worse than 2-3 they need to rely on results in Group F.

Slovakia - Spain
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	2-3	-2	-3	-4
100%	100%	6%	6%	36%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	Swe - Pol
100%	100%	9%	8%	55%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	Home
100%	100%	9%	9%	54%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	Draw
100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	Away

Spain clinch R16 if they win against Slovakia. They clinch R16 if they draw and Sweden take point against Poland. They win the group if they win their match and Sweden and Poland draw.

Slovakia - Spain
Home	Draw	Away
< 1%	65%	100%	Swe - Pol
< 1%	100%	100%	95%	Home
< 1%	100%	100%	95%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	100%	84%	Away

Poland clinch R16 if they win against Sweden, which most likely means they finish 2nd. If they draw or lose they are out.

Sweden - Poland
Home	Draw	Away
< 1%	< 1%	100%	Slo - Spa
< 1%	< 1%	100%	34%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	100%	35%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	100%	34%	Away

France have clinched R16. They win the group if they win against Portugal - or if they draw while Germany fail winning against Hungary.

Group F	MP	GD			Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
France	2	2	-	1	4	< 1%	24%	26%	51%	100%	66%	47%	27%	17%
Germany	2	4	-	3	3	7%	11%	42%	39%	92%	45%	27%	11%	4%
Portugal	2	5	-	4	3	6%	58%	26%	10%	89%	47%	30%	16%	9%
Hungary	2	1	-	4	1	87%	6%	7%	< 1%	13%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Germany clinch R16 if they take a point against Hungary. If they lose and France beat Portugal they finish third and goal difference and the results in group E will decide.  

Germany - Hungary
Home	Draw	-1	0-2	1-3	-3	-4
100%	100%	43%	34%	43%	20%	< 1%	Por - Fra
100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	87%	Home
100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	87%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	78%	100%	46%	< 1%	99.0%	Away

Portugal clinch R16 if they take a point against France or if they lose with less than three goals and Germany take a point against Hungary. If they lose with three goals it depends on the results in Group E.

Portugal - France
Home	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
100%	100%	87%	87%	41%	< 1%	Ger - Hun
100%	100%	100%	100%	47%	< 1%	94%	Home
100%	100%	100%	100%	47%	< 1%	94%	Draw
100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	57%	Away

Hungary clinch R16 if they beat Germany.

Germany - Hungary
Home	Draw	Away
< 1%	< 1%	100%	Por - Fra
< 1%	< 1%	100%	13%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	100%	13%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	100%	13%	Away

Currently you are safe as a third team if you have 3 points and a goal difference better than 4-5. Finland have goal difference 1-3 and need that both thirds in group E and F finish with worse score. That happens if

• Sweden take a point and Spain thrash Slovakia with three goals or more or
• Sweden take a point and Slovakia beat Spain

and

• France win with four goals against Portugal and Germany take a point or
• Hungary win with four goals against Germany and France win against Portugal

Ukraine have much better chances, They need that one of the thirds finish with goal difference worse than 4-5

• Sweden take a point against Poland and Slovakia win or
• Sweden take a point and Spain win with 1-0, 2-1 or with more than one goal
  

or

• France win with three goals against Portugal and Germany take a point or
• Hungary win with three goals against Germany and France win against Portugal (if Hungary win with 2-0, Germany and Ukraine are tied and fair play decides)
  

 

Pts	GD	Probability	Last 16	Chance
3	4-5	17%	10%	61%
3	3-4	< 1%	< 1%	9%
3	2-3	< 1%	< 1%	9%
3	10-12	< 1%	< 1%	50%
3	9-11	< 1%	< 1%	50%
3	8-10	< 1%	< 1%	46%
3	7-9	< 1%	< 1%	48%
3	6-8	< 1%	< 1%	47%
3	5-7	< 1%	< 1%	44%
3	4-6	< 1%	< 1%	8%
3	3-5	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%
3	2-4	1.1%	< 1%	2.8%
3	1-3	17%	< 1%	< 1%

The updated probabilities for the bracket

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Belgium (100%)
		Belgium (68%) Portugal (13%)
Sweden (34%) Portugal (32%) France (14%)
				Belgium (46%) Italy (33%) Portugal (8%)
Italy (100%)
		Italy (78%) Austria (22%)
Austria (100%)
						Belgium (30%) Italy (18%) France (17%) Spain (8%)
France (51%) Germany (39%)
		France (37%) Switzerland (34%) Germany (22%)
Switzerland (99%)
				France (27%) Switzerland (17%) Germany (15%) Spain (14%)
Croatia (100%)
		Croatia (45%) Spain (27%) Poland (15%)
Spain (36%) Poland (31%) Sweden (21%)
								Belgium (19%) France (17%) Spain (11%) England (11%) Italy (9%)
Spain (48%) Sweden (45%)
		Spain (37%) Sweden (24%) Ukraine (24%)
Ukraine (60%) Czechia (39%)
				England (29%) Spain (21%) France (11%) Germany (10%)
England (100%)
		England (49%) Germany (19%) France (16%)
Germany (42%) Portugal (26%) France (26%)
						England (19%) Denmark (16%) Netherlands (14%) Spain (12%) France (10%)
Netherlands (100%)
		Netherlands (60%) Czechia (18%) Portugal (13%)
Czechia (61%) Portugal (21%) France (10%)
				Denmark (35%) Netherlands (32%) Wales (14%)
Wales (100%)
		Denmark (65%) Wales (35%)
Denmark (100%)

Euro: Predictions of Group D

 

Group D	MP	GD			Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
England	2	1	-	0	4	< 1%	2%	27%	71%	100%	52%	29%	17%	10%
Czechia	2	3	-	1	4	< 1%	23%	49%	29%	100%	32%	9%	2%	< 1%
Croatia	2	1	-	2	1	31%	47%	23%	< 1%	45%	18%	6%	2%	< 1%
Scotland	2	0	-	2	1	69%	29%	2%	< 1%	31%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%

England clinch group win if they beat Czechia. They clinch 2nd spot if they draw or Croatia take a point against Scotland.

Czechia clinch group win if they take a point against England. The clinch 2nd spot if they draw or Scotland take a point against Croatia.

Croatia reach R16 if (and only if) they win against Scotland. The clinch the 2nd spot and a R16 match-up against runner-up in group E, if they beat Scotland, England beat Czechia and they catch up 3 goal-deficit in goal difference.

Scotland reach R16 if (and only if) they win against Croatia. They clinch the 2nd spot if they win and Czechia beat England and they catch up 3-goal deficit in goal difference.

Ukraine clinch R16 if Scotland and Croatia draw.

Probabilities for bracket

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Belgium (100%)
		Belgium (70%) Portugal (10%)
Sweden (34%) Portugal (24%) France (10%) Switzerland (9%)
				Belgium (47%) Italy (33%) Portugal (6%)
Italy (100%)
		Italy (78%) Austria (22%)
Austria (100%)
						Belgium (31%) Italy (18%) France (16%) Spain (8%)
France (51%) Germany (39%)
		France (37%) Switzerland (31%) Germany (22%)
Switzerland (91%)
				France (26%) Switzerland (16%) Germany (15%) Spain (14%)
Czechia (49%) England (27%) Croatia (23%)
		Spain (26%) Czechia (18%) England (16%) Poland (15%)
Spain (36%) Poland (31%) Sweden (21%)
								Belgium (20%) France (17%) Spain (11%) England (10%) Italy (9%)
Spain (48%) Sweden (45%)
		Spain (37%) Sweden (25%) Ukraine (24%)
Ukraine (61%) Scotland (11%) Finland (9%)
				Spain (21%) England (21%) France (12%) Germany (12%) Portugal (11%)
England (71%) Czechia (29%)
		England (35%) Germany (22%) France (17%) Portugal (16%)
Germany (42%) Portugal (26%) France (26%)
						Denmark (16%) Netherlands (14%) England (14%) Spain (12%) Portugal (12%)
Netherlands (100%)
		Netherlands (56%) Portugal (18%) France (9%)
Portugal (30%) Scotland (18%) Croatia (14%) Czechia (14%)
				Denmark (34%) Netherlands (30%) Wales (13%)
Wales (100%)
		Denmark (65%) Wales (35%)
Denmark (100%)