World Cup: African Qualifiers

 The African qualifiers are played in ten groups. The groups winners proceed to round three, which is a head-to-head playoff. The five winner qualify for the world cup.

The interesting matches the coming week include:

- Burkina Faso play a must win match against Algeria (23% vs 4%)

- In group D, Ivory Coast and Cameroon play in a likely early group final

- In group B, Zambia and Tunisia play in a likely early group final. 

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		R3	Qatar
Algeria	0	0	15	(13-16)	79%	59%
Burkina Faso	0	0	11.8	(10-13)	20%	9%
Niger	0	0	6.49	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%
Djibouti	0	0	1.3	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		R3	Qatar
Tunisia	0	0	12.6	(11-15)	71%	42%
Zambia	0	0	8.92	(7-11)	19%	7%
Mauritania	0	0	6.26	(4-8)	5%	1%
Equatorial Guinea	0	0	5.75	(4-8)	4%	< 1%

Group C
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		R3	Qatar
Nigeria	0	0	13.9	(12-16)	84%	54%
Cape Verde	0	0	8.56	(7-10)	11%	4%
Liberia	0	0	5.86	(4-8)	3%	< 1%
Central African Republic	0	0	5.41	(3-7)	2%	< 1%

Group D
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		R3	Qatar
Ivory Coast	0	0	12.6	(11-15)	63%	36%
Cameroon	0	0	10.7	(9-13)	32%	14%
Malawi	0	0	6.14	(4-8)	4%	< 1%
Mozambique	0	0	4.25	(2-6)	1%	< 1%

Group E
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		R3	Qatar
Mali	0	0	11.3	(9-13)	56%	24%
Uganda	0	0	9.17	(7-11)	27%	8%
Kenya	0	0	7.47	(5-10)	13%	3%
Rwanda	0	0	5.42	(3-7)	4%	< 1%

Group F
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		R3	Qatar
Egypt	0	0	12.2	(10-14)	69%	35%
Gabon	0	0	8.18	(6-10)	16%	5%
Angola	0	0	6.64	(4-9)	8%	2%
Libya	0	0	6.39	(4-8)	7%	1%

Group G
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		R3	Qatar
Ghana	0	0	11.9	(10-14)	64%	33%
South Africa	0	0	8.99	(7-11)	22%	8%
Zimbabwe	0	0	7.13	(5-9)	10%	2%
Ethiopia	0	0	5.4	(3-7)	4%	< 1%

Group H
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		R3	Qatar
Senegal	0	0	14.9	(13-16)	92%	65%
Congo	0	0	7.06	(5-9)	3%	< 1%
Namibia	0	0	6.64	(4-9)	3%	< 1%
Togo	0	0	5.26	(3-7)	1%	< 1%

Group I
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		R3	Qatar
Morocco	0	0	13.2	(11-15)	80%	51%
Guinea	0	0	7.79	(6-10)	10%	3%
Sudan	0	0	6.65	(4-9)	6%	1%
Guinea-Bissau	0	0	5.89	(4-8)	4%	< 1%

Group J
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		R3	Qatar
Democratic Republic of Congo	0	0	10.2	(8-12)	42%	13%
Benin	0	0	9.85	(8-12)	37%	11%
Madagascar	0	0	7.55	(5-10)	15%	3%
Tanzania	0	0	5.75	(4-8)	6%	< 1%

World Cup: Asian Qualifiers

Third round of the Asian qualifiers are played in two groups. Winner and runner-up in each group clinch a place in Qatar. Third teams meet in a playoff and the winner of the playoff participate in the intercontinental playoff.

In Group A Iran and South Korea are favorites. Interesting matches the coming week include that Iraq play both Iran and South Korea.

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Iran	0	0	20.5	(18-23)	14%	34%	47%	14%	11%	5%	87%
South Korea	0	0	20.1	(18-23)	17%	37%	42%	17%	13%	6%	85%
Iraq	0	0	16	(13-19)	43%	24%	10%	43%	25%	13%	46%
Syria	0	0	10.5	(8-13)	13%	3%	< 1%	13%	4%	2%	6%
United Arab Emirates	0	0	9.25	(7-12)	9%	2%	< 1%	9%	3%	1%	3%
Lebanon	0	0	7.82	(5-10)	5%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	1%

 

Japan and Australian are favorites in Group B. The most interesting match the coming week is that Saudi Arabia play Oman. Saudi Arabia double their chances if they win (44% vs 24%) while Oman triple their chances if they win (18% vs 6%)

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Japan	0	0	20.6	(18-23)	10%	30%	56%	10%	7%	4%	90%
Australia	0	0	19	(16-22)	17%	40%	35%	17%	11%	5%	81%
Saudi Arabia	0	0	14.2	(12-17)	35%	18%	6%	35%	15%	7%	31%
Oman	0	0	11.3	(9-14)	18%	6%	1%	18%	6%	3%	11%
China	0	0	10.2	(8-13)	13%	4%	< 1%	13%	4%	2%	7%
Vietnam	0	0	8.55	(6-11)	7%	2%	< 1%	7%	1%	< 1%	3%

PL: Tottenham the hottest team in August

 

Hot Teams
Tottenham: 9 points in the first 3 matches, 4.1 more than expected
Everton: 7 points in the first 3 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Chelsea: 7 points in the first 3 matches, 2.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
Arsenal: 0 points in the first 3 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Wolves: 0 points in the first 3 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Newcastle: 1 points in the first 3 matches, 3.0 less than expected

Simulated points for winner: 79 - 85
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
6	Man City	78.0	+49	< 1%	99.67%	99.12%	97.7%	94%	47%	1.4%	3.5%	94%
7	Liverpool	73.1	+34	< 1%	98.0%	95.7%	91%	81%	18%	4.9%	10%	81%
7	Chelsea	73.0	+34	< 1%	97.9%	95.5%	90%	80%	18%	5%	11%	81%
7	Man United	71.4	+31	< 1%	96.8%	93%	86%	73%	13%	7%	13%	74%
9	Tottenham	64.9	+15	< 1%	83%	73%	57%	36%	2.7%	10%	41%	34%
7	West Ham	60.1	+12	< 1%	64%	49%	31%	16%	< 1%	17%	19%	23%
6	Leicester	55.8	+1	< 1%	39%	25%	14%	6%	< 1%	12%	13%	11%
0	Arsenal	55.8	+3	< 1%	40%	26%	14%	6%	< 1%	13%	13%	6%
7	Everton	55.0	+3	< 1%	35%	22%	12%	5%	< 1%	12%	11%	4.7%
2	Leeds	50.0	-5	4.7%	15%	8%	3.4%	1.2%	< 1%	5%	6%	1.1%
6	Brighton	48.6	-9	6%	11%	5%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	4.0%	5%	< 1%
4	Aston Villa	47.3	-8	9%	8%	4.1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	4.6%	< 1%
5	Brentford	43.4	-16	20%	2.8%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	3.0%	< 1%
0	Wolves	42.7	-13	23%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%
2	Southampton	41.8	-17	27%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%
2	Crystal Palace	40.5	-20	34%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
1	Newcastle	40.5	-20	34%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%
1	Burnley	39.9	-19	36%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
3	Watford	39.8	-22	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
0	Norwich	34.6	-33	67%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%

PL: Matchweek 2

 

Simulated points for winner: 78 - 85
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 38 - 41

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
3	Man City	78.0	+47	< 1%	99.67%	99.18%	98.0%	95.0%	50%	1.3%	2.7%	95.4%
6	Liverpool	73.1	+33	< 1%	97.9%	95.7%	91%	83%	21%	4.6%	8%	83%
6	Chelsea	71.5	+31	< 1%	96.7%	94%	88%	77%	15%	6%	11%	77%
4	Man United	69.9	+30	< 1%	95.1%	91%	83%	70%	11%	8%	13%	71%
6	Tottenham	62.1	+12	< 1%	73%	60%	44%	27%	1.5%	10%	43%	25%
0	Arsenal	59.4	+12	< 1%	61%	47%	31%	17%	< 1%	17%	18%	16%
6	West Ham	58.9	+10	< 1%	58%	44%	29%	16%	< 1%	15%	16%	22%
3	Leicester	55.1	+1	1.4%	37%	24%	14%	7%	< 1%	11%	12%	14%
4	Everton	52.2	-1	3.2%	24%	14%	8%	3.2%	< 1%	8%	8%	3.0%
1	Leeds	51.3	-4	4.3%	20%	12%	6%	2.5%	< 1%	7%	8%	2.3%
6	Brighton	48.3	-10	9%	10%	6%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	3.6%	4.8%	< 1%
3	Aston Villa	48.2	-7	9%	11%	6%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%	5%	< 1%
0	Wolves	44.9	-11	18%	5.0%	2.4%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	3.9%	< 1%
0	Newcastle	43.2	-15	24%	3.1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	3.5%	< 1%
1	Southampton	42.0	-17	30%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.0%	< 1%
0	Burnley	41.6	-17	32%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	< 1%
4	Brentford	41.5	-20	33%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
1	Crystal Palace	40.7	-20	37%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
3	Watford	40.3	-23	39%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
0	Norwich	36.6	-31	61%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%

PL: Match week 1

Simulated points for winner: 78 - 85
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 38 - 41

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
0	Man City	77.6	+44	< 1%	99.60%	99.04%	97.7%	95%	50%	1.4%	2.7%	95.1%
3	Liverpool	72.4	+33	< 1%	97.4%	95%	90%	82%	20%	4.9%	9%	82%
3	Man United	70.6	+31	< 1%	95.7%	92%	86%	75%	14%	7%	11%	76%
3	Chelsea	69.7	+28	< 1%	95%	90%	83%	70%	12%	8%	13%	71%
0	Arsenal	61.0	+14	< 1%	68%	56%	40%	24%	1.4%	17%	19%	23%
3	Tottenham	60.4	+11	< 1%	65%	52%	37%	22%	1.1%	10%	42%	20%
3	West Ham	57.7	+7	< 1%	51%	37%	24%	13%	< 1%	13%	14%	20%
3	Leicester	56.1	+4	1.2%	42%	30%	18%	9%	< 1%	11%	13%	16%
3	Everton	52.2	-2	3.6%	24%	15%	8%	3.7%	< 1%	8%	8%	3.4%
0	Leeds	52.1	-3	4.0%	23%	14%	8%	3.5%	< 1%	7%	8%	3.2%
3	Brighton	47.1	-11	12%	8%	4.5%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	4.4%	< 1%
0	Aston Villa	47.0	-8	13%	9%	4.6%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	4.7%	< 1%
0	Wolves	46.3	-10	15%	7%	3.9%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	4.4%	< 1%
0	Newcastle	44.2	-14	22%	4.2%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	3.6%	< 1%
0	Burnley	42.1	-17	31%	2.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%
0	Southampton	42.0	-18	32%	2.3%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.0%	< 1%
3	Brentford	41.5	-20	35%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
0	Crystal Palace	41.5	-20	35%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%
3	Watford	41.2	-22	36%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
0	Norwich	36.9	-28	60%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Liverpool	73%	16%	11%	Burnley
Aston Villa	52%	23%	26%	Newcastle
Leeds	51%	23%	26%	Everton
Man City	83%	11%	6%	Norwich
Crystal Palace	51%	23%	26%	Brentford
Brighton	55%	22%	23%	Watford
Wolves	38%	24%	37%	Tottenham
Southampton	25%	23%	52%	Man United
Arsenal	43%	24%	33%	Chelsea
West Ham	50%	23%	27%	Leicester

Predictions 2021/22 Premier League

We have simulated the coming premier league season 1,000,000 times and the table below shows the outcome. In more than half of the simulations, the champions finish with 78-86 points; the fourth team finished with 65-70 points and the 17th team finished with 38-41 points.

The table shows the probability that teams are relegated or finish in a certain top tier, which is relevant for qualification for the European tournaments. These qualifications also depend on whether English teams win the three European tournaments, as a win in CL or EL, is rewarded with a CL ticket, while a win in ECL is rewarded with a ticket to EL (unless qualified to CL).

The model does not consider transfers of players. The strength of teams is estimated only using data from previous matches (from the Club ELO  index), so if a team has done a very good or bad silly season their strength might be off a bit in the beginning of the season, but this will be correctly through their performance (via the ELO index) when they win or lose more than expected.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
0	Man City	79.2	+45	< 1%	99.77%	99.45%	98.6%	96.6%	60%	< 1%	1.8%	96.8%
0	Liverpool	71.4	+31	< 1%	96.6%	94%	89%	79%	16%	6%	9%	80%
0	Man United	69.8	+28	< 1%	95%	91%	84%	72%	11%	7%	11%	73%
0	Chelsea	69.1	+27	< 1%	94%	89%	82%	69%	10%	8%	13%	70%
0	Arsenal	62.7	+16	< 1%	77%	66%	52%	34%	2.1%	16%	20%	32%
0	Tottenham	58.5	+9	< 1%	58%	44%	30%	17%	< 1%	9%	42%	16%
0	West Ham	56.0	+5	1.3%	44%	31%	20%	10%	< 1%	11%	13%	18%
0	Leicester	55.0	+4	1.8%	39%	27%	16%	8%	< 1%	10%	12%	15%
0	Leeds	52.7	-0	3.4%	28%	18%	10%	4.9%	< 1%	8%	9%	4.5%
0	Everton	51.1	-3	5%	21%	13%	7%	3.3%	< 1%	7%	8%	3.0%
0	Aston Villa	48.3	-8	10%	12%	7%	3.5%	1.4%	< 1%	4.0%	5%	1.3%
0	Wolves	47.2	-9	13%	10%	5%	2.6%	1.1%	< 1%	3.2%	4.8%	< 1%
0	Newcastle	45.7	-12	17%	7%	3.7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	4.1%	< 1%
0	Brighton	45.2	-13	19%	6%	3.2%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	3.9%	< 1%
0	Burnley	43.8	-15	24%	4.2%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	3.5%	< 1%
0	Southampton	42.9	-17	28%	3.3%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	3.2%	< 1%
0	Crystal Palace	41.9	-18	32%	2.5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.0%	< 1%
0	Watford	39.7	-22	44%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
0	Brentford	39.6	-23	45%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
0	Norwich	37.7	-26	56%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%