ECL: Tottenham, Roma, Leicester and Napoli favorites

Tottenham, Roma, Leicester and Napoli favorites in Conference League.

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Tottenham	19%	78%	96.9%	94%	79%	63%	49%	34%
C	Roma	8%	91%	99.0%	96.7%	70%	47%	29%	15%
	Leicester			28%	23%	18%	13%	8%	4.9%
	Napoli			23%	19%	15%	11%	7%	4.4%
E	Union Berlin	30%	34%	64%	53%	33%	19%	10%	4.4%
D	Alkmaar	19%	71%	90%	81%	46%	22%	10%	3.7%
E	Slavia Praha	34%	35%	68%	55%	32%	17%	8%	3.6%
	Sociedad			27%	21%	15%	10%	6%	3.2%
B	Partizan	33%	64%	97.9%	81%	41%	18%	7%	2.4%
G	Rennes	69%	19%	88%	56%	28%	13%	6%	2.2%
F	FC Kobenhavn	26%	71%	97.0%	83%	39%	16%	5%	1.7%
E	Feyenoord	30%	29%	59%	45%	23%	11%	4.4%	1.6%
	PSV			28%	20%	12%	7%	3.5%	1.6%
	Rangers			43%	28%	15%	8%	3.4%	1.4%
A	LASK	48%	49%	96.6%	70%	32%	12%	4.1%	1.3%
	Monaco			32%	22%	12%	6%	3.1%	1.3%
	Lazio			14%	10%	7%	4.5%	2.6%	1.3%
	Frankfurt			10%	8%	5%	3.5%	2.1%	1.1%
A	M Tel Aviv	43%	50%	93%	68%	28%	10%	3.1%	< 1%
H	Basel	31%	55%	87%	68%	28%	10%	2.8%	< 1%
F	PAOK	54%	27%	81%	50%	21%	8%	2.4%	< 1%
	Marseille			35%	21%	10%	4.8%	1.9%	< 1%
B	Gent	60%	35%	95.0%	58%	22%	7%	2.1%	< 1%
	Dinamo Zagreb			25%	15%	7%	3.5%	1.4%	< 1%
	Braga			20%	12%	6%	2.9%	1.2%	< 1%
	Celtic			52%	27%	11%	4.0%	1.3%	< 1%
	Midtjylland			39%	21%	9%	3.5%	1.2%	< 1%
	Genk			49%	25%	10%	3.7%	1.2%	< 1%
	Betis			4.0%	3.0%	1.9%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
	Rapid Wien			25%	14%	6%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
	West Ham			1.3%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Lok Moskva			27%	15%	6%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
	Olympiakos			4.6%	3.4%	2.0%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
	Leverkusen			2.6%	2.0%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sparta Praha			28%	15%	6%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Fenerbahce			52%	25%	9%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
	Lyon			3.3%	2.4%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Bodoe Glimt	54%	8%	62%	27%	9%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
	Galatasaray			24%	13%	5%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ferencvaros			42%	20%	7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Karabakh Agdam	46%	37%	84%	51%	15%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
	Razgrad			32%	15%	5%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sturm Graz			13%	7%	2.8%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	CFR Cluj	19%	9%	27%	15%	5%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
	Crvena Zvezda			9%	5%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Legia			28%	12%	4.1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Antwerp			34%	15%	4.8%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
C	CSKA Sofia	24%	1.1%	25%	10%	3.3%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Vitesse	12%	2.5%	15%	7%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Spartak Moskva			22%	9%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Jablonec	37%	14%	50%	24%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
	Brondby			26%	11%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Zorya	14%	< 1%	15%	5%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Randers	25%	7%	32%	13%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Omonia	15%	6%	21%	10%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Maccabi Haifa	6%	2.0%	8%	3.9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Slovan Bratislava	20%	2.1%	22%	6%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Anorthosis	6%	< 1%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Kairat	7%	1.6%	9%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	HJK Helsinki	8%	1.5%	10%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Lincoln	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Flora Tallinn	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Mura	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Alashkert	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

EL: West Ham, Barcelona, Napoli and Man United favorites

West Ham, Barcelona, Napoli and Man United are favorites in Europa League.

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
H	West Ham	7%	92%	98.6%	95.9%	61%	38%	22%	12%
	Barcelona			45%	38%	30%	22%	15%	10%
C	Napoli	25%	41%	66%	55%	34%	20%	11%	5%
	Man United			17%	15%	12%	9%	6%	4.1%
G	Leverkusen	43%	54%	97.3%	76%	40%	20%	9%	3.9%
C	Leicester	32%	27%	59%	45%	27%	15%	8%	3.8%
	Atletico			18%	15%	12%	8%	6%	3.5%
	Inter			18%	15%	12%	8%	6%	3.4%
D	Frankfurt	48%	41%	88%	64%	34%	17%	7%	3.2%
E	Lazio	27%	53%	81%	66%	35%	16%	7%	2.9%
G	Betis	50%	45%	95.8%	69%	36%	16%	7%	2.8%
B	Sociedad	34%	30%	64%	47%	26%	13%	6%	2.7%
	Man City			7%	6%	6%	4.6%	3.7%	2.7%
	Milan			35%	25%	17%	10%	5%	2.6%
	Porto			42%	30%	18%	10%	5%	2.6%
	Villarreal			32%	23%	15%	9%	4.9%	2.5%
	Sevilla			20%	16%	11%	7%	4.4%	2.4%
	Atalanta			22%	17%	12%	7%	4.4%	2.4%
	RB Leipzig			29%	21%	14%	8%	4.5%	2.3%
A	Lyon	15%	82%	96.4%	88%	39%	16%	6%	2.3%
	Chelsea			10%	8%	7%	5%	3.6%	2.3%
	Paris SG			15%	12%	9%	6%	3.7%	2.1%
	Real Madrid			8%	7%	5%	4.1%	3.0%	1.9%
D	Olympiakos	38%	57%	95%	73%	32%	13%	5%	1.9%
	Sporting			69%	43%	22%	10%	4.1%	1.7%
	Wolfsburg			33%	23%	14%	7%	3.6%	1.6%
	Benfica			33%	22%	13%	7%	3.1%	1.4%
B	PSV	31%	37%	68%	50%	22%	9%	3.1%	1.2%
	Liverpool			4.3%	3.7%	3.1%	2.4%	1.8%	1.2%
	Salzburg			22%	15%	9%	4.5%	2.1%	< 1%
	Juventus			7%	5%	3.7%	2.4%	1.4%	< 1%
B	Monaco	30%	32%	62%	43%	17%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
	Zenit			74%	39%	17%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
	Bayern			1.4%	1.3%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Lille			25%	15%	7%	3.3%	1.3%	< 1%
	Dortmund			4.1%	3.1%	2.2%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
	Young Boys			29%	16%	8%	3.1%	1.1%	< 1%
F	Braga	43%	27%	70%	41%	14%	4.3%	1.2%	< 1%
	Ajax			4.3%	3.1%	2.1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
	Shakhtar			20%	12%	5%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Crvena Zvezda	27%	61%	88%	68%	20%	5.0%	1.1%	< 1%
	Brugge			49%	23%	9%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
	Dynamo Kyiv			20%	10%	4.5%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Dinamo Zagreb	58%	4.8%	63%	23%	8%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Marseille	23%	14%	37%	21%	7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Rangers	27%	3.0%	30%	13%	5.0%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Galatasaray	34%	25%	59%	33%	8%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Sparta Praha	48%	15%	62%	26%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Midtjylland	16%	8%	24%	12%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Lok Moskva	17%	7%	24%	12%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Legia	32%	27%	59%	33%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Genk	22%	3.1%	25%	9%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Rapid Wien	13%	< 1%	14%	4.1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Malmoe			10%	4.2%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Besiktas			22%	8%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Razgrad	14%	4.0%	18%	7%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Sturm Graz	4.5%	1.1%	6%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Spartak Moskva	11%	5%	16%	7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Fenerbahce	10%	1.5%	12%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Celtic	4.0%	< 1%	4.3%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Antwerp	4.5%	< 1%	4.9%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Brondby	11%	< 1%	12%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sheriff Tiraspol			54%	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Ferencvaros	2.4%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

CL: Matchweek 2

 Bayern almost clinch a R16 spot. Barcelona in trouble after two losses and will need good results against Dynamo.

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Bayern	14.3	(13-16)	< 1%	1%	7%	91%	99%
2	4	Benfica	8.1	(7-10)	10%	33%	49%	7%	56%
2	1	Dynamo Kyiv	3.9	(2-5)	72%	20%	8%	< 1%	8%
2	0	Barcelona	7.2	(6-9)	17%	45%	36%	2%	38%

Man United and Atalanta favorites.

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	4	Atalanta	9.6	(8-11)	9%	22%	32%	37%	69%
2	3	Young Boys	6.7	(5-9)	46%	29%	18%	7%	25%
2	3	Man United	10.1	(8-12)	7%	17%	30%	46%	76%
2	1	Villarreal	6.8	(5-8)	38%	32%	20%	9%	30%

Group G is a very open group but Salzburg are in a good position with strong Sevilla.

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	4	Salzburg	9.3	(8-11)	10%	22%	29%	40%	68%
2	2	Sevilla	8.9	(7-11)	12%	20%	33%	35%	68%
2	2	Wolfsburg	7.6	(6-9)	22%	33%	26%	19%	46%
2	1	Lille	5.4	(4-7)	57%	25%	12%	6%	18%

Juventus in a lead position after a 1-0 win home against Chelsea. Zenit took a must-win against Malmoe.

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Juventus	13.1	(12-15)	< 1%	7%	31%	62%	93%
2	3	Chelsea	11.6	(10-13)	1%	10%	55%	34%	89%
2	3	Zenit	6.9	(5-9)	10%	74%	12%	4%	16%
2	0	Malmoe	2.9	(1-4)	88%	10%	1%	< 1%	1%

CL: PSG won against City

PSG and Man City are likely to taking the first two spots after Leipzig lost against Brugge.

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	4	Paris SG	10.2	(8-12)	5%	15%	46%	33%	80%
2	4	Brugge	6.5	(5-8)	35%	49%	13%	4%	16%
2	3	Man City	11.6	(10-13)	2%	7%	31%	61%	91%
2	0	RB Leipzig	5.2	(3-7)	59%	29%	11%	2%	13%

Liverpool and Atletico are likely taking the first two spots.

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Liverpool	12.7	(11-15)	< 1%	4%	25%	70%	95%
2	4	Atletico	9.9	(8-11)	4%	18%	51%	26%	77%
2	1	Porto	5.7	(4-7)	41%	42%	15%	2%	17%
2	0	Milan	4.9	(3-7)	54%	35%	9%	1%	11%

Ajax and Dortmund have almost clinched R16 spots.

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Ajax	12.5	(11-15)	< 1%	4%	49%	47%	96%
2	6	Dortmund	12.8	(11-15)	< 1%	4%	43%	53%	96%
2	0	Besiktas	3	(1-4)	76%	22%	1%	< 1%	1%
2	0	Sporting	6	(4-7)	23%	69%	7%	< 1%	7%

Tiraspol is the big surprise with 6 points after two matches. Will play important matches against Inter next,

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Sheriff Tiraspol	7.3	(6-9)	23%	54%	18%	5%	22%
2	3	Real Madrid	11.5	(10-13)	3%	8%	22%	68%	89%
2	1	Inter	9.5	(8-11)	6%	18%	51%	25%	76%
2	1	Shakhtar	5.4	(4-7)	67%	20%	10%	3%	12%

 

PL: City win early finale

City won the early finale against Chelsea with 1-0 and are winning the league in 52% of the simulations.

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Brighton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Norwich: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Leeds: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 less than expected
Newcastle: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected

Likely combination of teams in CL

Probability	Teams
43.7%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
6.5%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham
5%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.3%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham

Simulated points for winner: 80 - 86
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
13	Man City	79.5	+48	< 1%	99.87%	99.64%	99.0%	97.0%	52%	< 1%	1.5%	97.6%
14	Liverpool	74.1	+37	< 1%	98.9%	97.6%	94%	87%	19%	3.1%	6%	89%
13	Chelsea	73.9	+37	< 1%	98.9%	97.4%	94%	87%	18%	3.3%	7%	88%
13	Man United	71.4	+31	< 1%	97.5%	95%	89%	77%	11%	6%	11%	79%
9	Tottenham	60.8	+7	< 1%	68%	54%	36%	17%	< 1%	11%	46%	17%
9	Arsenal	59.3	+5	< 1%	60%	45%	28%	13%	< 1%	18%	20%	13%
8	West Ham	58.2	+11	< 1%	55%	40%	25%	11%	< 1%	15%	17%	20%
13	Everton	55.7	+2	< 1%	40%	26%	14%	6%	< 1%	13%	13%	6%
7	Leicester	52.5	-1	1.6%	24%	14%	7%	2.3%	< 1%	8%	11%	7%
13	Brighton	51.7	-7	2.0%	19%	11%	5%	1.7%	< 1%	7%	7%	1.6%
10	Aston Villa	50.6	-4	2.9%	16%	9%	4.2%	1.3%	< 1%	6%	7%	1.3%
3	Leeds	48.5	-8	6%	11%	6%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	4.1%	6%	< 1%
6	Wolves	44.5	-12	14%	3.6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	3.6%	< 1%
9	Brentford	44.0	-13	16%	3.0%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	3.0%	< 1%
6	Crystal Palace	41.4	-18	27%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
4	Southampton	40.5	-16	31%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%
7	Watford	39.6	-22	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
3	Newcastle	39.3	-21	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
2	Burnley	38.1	-20	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
0	Norwich	31.7	-36	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Man United	65%	19%	16%	Everton
Chelsea	74%	16%	11%	Southampton
Leeds	60%	21%	19%	Watford
Wolves	51%	23%	26%	Newcastle
Burnley	55%	22%	23%	Norwich
Brighton	38%	24%	38%	Arsenal
Tottenham	61%	21%	19%	Aston Villa
West Ham	65%	19%	16%	Brentford
Crystal Palace	37%	24%	39%	Leicester
Liverpool	43%	24%	33%	Man City

PL: Chelsea win London derby

 

Hot Teams
Chelsea: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Brighton: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Man United: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Burnley: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Norwich: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Newcastle: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 less than expected

Simulated points for winner: 80 - 86
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
10	Man City	77.8	+47	< 1%	99.75%	99.32%	98.1%	94%	38%	1.6%	3.6%	94%
13	Chelsea	75.4	+38	< 1%	99.28%	98.2%	95.7%	89%	23%	3.2%	7%	88%
13	Liverpool	75.0	+38	< 1%	99.17%	98.0%	95.1%	88%	22%	3.4%	7%	88%
13	Man United	73.7	+34	< 1%	98.7%	97.0%	93%	84%	16%	4.6%	10%	83%
9	Tottenham	61.9	+8	< 1%	73%	60%	41%	19%	< 1%	12%	48%	17%
8	West Ham	58.2	+11	< 1%	56%	41%	24%	9%	< 1%	16%	18%	18%
6	Arsenal	58.0	+3	< 1%	53%	38%	22%	8%	< 1%	18%	17%	8%
10	Everton	54.9	+1	< 1%	36%	23%	11%	3.9%	< 1%	13%	11%	3.5%
6	Leicester	53.6	-0	1.3%	30%	18%	9%	2.7%	< 1%	10%	12%	8%
12	Brighton	51.9	-7	2.1%	21%	12%	5%	1.5%	< 1%	7%	7%	1.4%
3	Leeds	48.5	-8	6%	11%	6%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	4.1%	6%	< 1%
7	Aston Villa	48.2	-7	6%	10%	5%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%	5%	< 1%
8	Brentford	43.9	-14	17%	3.2%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	3.1%	< 1%
3	Wolves	42.6	-14	22%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%
4	Southampton	42.1	-15	24%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%
5	Crystal Palace	41.9	-18	25%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
6	Watford	40.2	-22	34%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
2	Newcastle	39.5	-21	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
1	Burnley	37.9	-21	47%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
0	Norwich	32.4	-35	77%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Chelsea	41%	24%	34%	Man City
Man United	69%	18%	14%	Aston Villa
Everton	64%	20%	17%	Norwich
Leicester	60%	21%	19%	Burnley
Watford	45%	24%	31%	Newcastle
Brentford	22%	22%	56%	Liverpool
Southampton	46%	24%	30%	Wolves
Arsenal	48%	24%	29%	Tottenham
Crystal Palace	43%	24%	33%	Brighton