World Cup: Mexico and the United States almost clinch qualification

Costa Rica are trailing three points behind Mexico and the US. They need to win big to catch up on the goal difference, either by winning with 6 goals against the US or that Mexico lose and total win margin is four goals

United States 21-8

Mexico            15-8

Costa Rica      11-8
 

Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		Playoff	1st-3rd	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Canada	13	28	29.3	(28-31)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Mexico	13	25	27.7	(28-28)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
United States	13	25	26.5	(25-28)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Costa Rica	13	22	23.2	(22-25)	100%	< 1%	72%	72%
Panama	13	18	19.5	(18-21)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
El Salvador	13	10	10.2	(10-10)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Jamaica	13	8	9.61	(8-11)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Honduras	13	4	5.15	(4-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

World Cup: North and Central America

In North and Central America, three countries qualify directly and one spot goes to the playoff in Qatar in June. The US and Costa Rica play in the last match on Wednesday in what might become a complete decider.

Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		Playoff	1st-3rd	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Canada	12	25	28.1	(27-29)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Mexico	12	22	26.8	(26-28)	< 1%	99%	< 1%	100%
United States	12	22	25.9	(25-28)	11%	86%	9%	96%
Costa Rica	12	19	21.8	(20-23)	70%	12%	50%	63%
Panama	12	18	20	(18-21)	18%	2%	12%	14%
El Salvador	12	10	11.4	(10-13)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Jamaica	12	8	10.6	(9-12)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Honduras	12	4	5.88	(4-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Most important matches

Costa Rica vs United States on Wednesday

- United States have 100% if they win; 97.7% if draw; 77.8% if lose.

- Costa Rica have 68.4% if they win; 39.7% if draw; 34.9% if lose.

- Panama have 15.1% if United States win; 12.7% if draw; 5% if Costa Rica win.

United States vs Panama on Sunday

- Panama have 43.7% if they win; 9.4% if draw; 6.5% if lose.

- United States have 96.1% if they win; 90.3% if draw; 69.3% if lose.

El Salvador vs Costa Rica on Sunday

- Costa Rica have 60.3% if they win; 41% if draw; 33.7% if lose.

- Panama have 19.4% if El Salvador win; 14.6% if draw; 3.4% if Costa Rica win.

- United States have 96.9% if El Salvador win; 94.6% if draw; 87.3% if Costa Rica win.

Panama vs Canada on Wednesday

- Panama have 22.6% if they win; 5.1% if draw; 1.8% if lose.

- Costa Rica have 54.4% if Canada win; 53.3% if draw; 37.5% if Panama win.

Mexico vs El Salvador on Wednesday

- Mexico have 99.9% if they win; 97.5% if draw; 94.7% if lose.

- United States have 96.1% if El Salvador win; 93% if draw; 91.9% if Mexico win.

World Cup: Uruguay and Ecuador clinched tickets to Qatar

 In South America, four countries have clinched the direct spots to the World Cup. Peru, Colombia, and Chile have chance to grab the playoff spot against an Asian country.

Peru are the favorites (68%) and clinch the spot if they win against Paraguay (home). They also clinch the spot if they take as many points as Colombia and Chile do not win against Uruguay.

Venezuela - Colombia
Home	Draw	Away
84%	67%	52%	Per - Par
100%	100%	100%	100%	Home
66%	66%	< 1%	42%	Draw
66%	< 1%	< 1%	25%	Away

Colombia clinch the playoff spot if they win against Venezuela and Peru can't win against Paraguay. They also clinch the spot if the draw, Peru lose, and Chile don;t win.

Venezuela - Colombia
Home	Draw	Away
< 1%	17%	48%	Per - Par
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	100%	37%	Draw
< 1%	66%	100%	53%	Away

Chile clinch the playoff if they win and neither of Colombia and Peru win.

Venezuela - Colombia
Home	Draw	Away
16%	16%	< 1%	Per - Par
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Home
34%	34%	< 1%	21%	Draw
34%	34%	< 1%	21%	Away

Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		Playoff	1st-4th	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Brazil	16	42	46.7	(46-48)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Argentina	15	35	39.5	(38-41)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Uruguay	17	25	26.5	(25-28)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Ecuador	17	25	26.2	(25-28)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Peru	17	21	22.8	(21-24)	68%	< 1%	43%	43%
Colombia	17	20	21.4	(20-23)	22%	< 1%	16%	16%
Chile	17	19	20.3	(19-22)	10%	< 1%	7%	7%
Paraguay	17	16	17	(16-19)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bolivia	17	15	15.3	(15-15)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Venezuela	16	10	12	(10-13)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

World Cup: UAE or Iraq will play Australia in playoff

 

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
South Korea	9	23	25.1	(24-26)	< 1%	32%	68%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Iran	9	22	24.6	(25-25)	< 1%	68%	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
United Arab Emirates	9	9	9.72	(9-10)	62%	< 1%	< 1%	62%	8%	< 1%	< 1%
Iraq	9	8	9.59	(8-11)	38%	< 1%	< 1%	38%	14%	4%	4%
Lebanon	9	6	6.26	(6-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Syria	9	5	6.18	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

UAE and Iraq fight over the playoff spot while Lebanon only have a mathematical chance.

United Arab Emirates clinched playoff spot if they beat South Korea (home) or if they draw and Iraq don't win against Syria. If they lose and Iraq don't win they have good chances (>95%, see below).

United Arab Emirates - South Korea
Home	Draw	Away
100%	55%	54%	Syr - Ira
100%	100%	99.1%	99.4%	Home
100%	100%	97.4%	98.4%	0-0
100%	100%	95.1%	96.9%	1-1
100%	100%	94%	96.4%	2-2
100%	100%	95%	97%	3-3
100%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	Away

 

Iraq clinch qualification if they beat Syria and UAE don't win against South Korea.

United Arab Emirates - South Korea
Home	Draw	Away
< 1%	45%	46%	Syr - Ira
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	1.1%	0-0
< 1%	< 1%	4.0%	2.5%	1-1
< 1%	< 1%	5%	3.0%	2-2
< 1%	< 1%	5%	3%	3-3
< 1%	100%	100%	83%	Away

 

Lebanon clinch qualification if Iraq don't win against Syria - and they catch up three points and five goals against UAE,

United Arab Emirates - South Korea
Home	Draw	-1	-2	-3	0-4	1-5
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	1.0%	Syr - Ira
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	4%	2%	< 1%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	4%	2%	< 1%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Away

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Japan	9	21	23.6	(24-24)	< 1%	6%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Saudi Arabia	9	20	21.3	(20-23)	< 1%	94%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Australia	9	15	16.5	(15-18)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	78%	28%	28%
Oman	9	11	12.8	(12-14)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
China	9	6	6.96	(6-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Vietnam	9	3	3.3	(3-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Japan and Saudi clinched qualification in Group B while Australia will play playoff.

World Cup: North America

 

Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		Playoff	1st-3rd	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Canada	11	25	29.1	(28-31)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Mexico	11	21	28	(27-30)	< 1%	99%	< 1%	100%
United States	11	21	25.5	(24-27)	11%	86%	9%	95%
Costa Rica	11	16	20.5	(19-22)	49%	9%	35%	44%
Panama	11	17	20.5	(19-22)	39%	6%	25%	32%
Jamaica	11	7	11.6	(10-13)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
El Salvador	11	9	11.1	(10-12)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Honduras	11	3	6.12	(4-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Most important matches

United States vs Panama on Sunday

- United States have 97.2% if they win; 85.1% if draw; 61% if lose.

- Panama have 64.9% if they win; 31.7% if draw; 18.9% if lose.

Costa Rica vs United States on Wednesday

- Costa Rica have 53.3% if they win; 29.2% if draw; 19.6% if lose.

- United States have 98.4% if they win; 94.4% if draw; 79.5% if lose.

- Panama have 32.2% if United States win; 26.6% if draw; 17.9% if Costa Rica win.

El Salvador vs Costa Rica on Sunday

- Costa Rica have 46.2% if they win; 28.1% if draw; 18.6% if lose.

- Panama have 36.8% if El Salvador win; 28.2% if draw; 17.2% if Costa Rica win.

- United States have 94.7% if El Salvador win; 93.9% if draw; 87.2% if Costa Rica win.

Costa Rica vs Canada today

- Costa Rica have 44.4% if they win; 26.6% if draw; 17.4% if lose.

- Panama have 37.9% if Canada win; 29.4% if draw; 18.3% if Costa Rica win.

- United States have 94.8% if Canada win; 94.2% if draw; 87.9% if Costa Rica win.

Panama vs Canada on Wednesday

- Panama have 38.6% if they win; 22.2% if draw; 13.8% if lose.

- Costa Rica have 42.7% if Canada win; 36.5% if draw; 23.1% if Panama win.

- United States have 93.7% if Canada win; 91.5% if draw; 88.9% if Panama win.

World Cup: South America

Uruguay play Peru (home) and Chile (away).

Peru play Uruguay (away) and Paraguay (home)

Chile play Brazil (away) and Uruguay (home)

Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		Playoff	1st-4th	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Brazil	15	39	46.3	(45-48)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Argentina	15	35	39.5	(38-41)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Ecuador	16	25	27.4	(26-29)	< 1%	99%	< 1%	100%
Uruguay	16	22	25.7	(25-28)	15%	79%	12%	91%
Peru	16	21	23.4	(22-24)	55%	20%	35%	55%
Colombia	16	17	20.9	(20-23)	15%	< 1%	11%	11%
Chile	16	19	20.6	(19-22)	13%	2%	9%	11%
Bolivia	16	15	15.6	(15-16)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Paraguay	16	13	15.5	(14-17)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Venezuela	16	10	12	(10-13)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Uruguay and Peru play a match tomorrow that will very much decide who clinch the fourth direct qualification spot.
Uruguay clinch direct qualification if they win against Peru and Chile don't win against Brazil. If they lose, their chances are slim.

Brazil - Chile
Home	Draw	Away
81%	79%	60%	Uru - Per
100%	100%	73%	98.1%	Home
67%	59%	53%	65%	Draw
10%	11%	10%	10%	Away

 

Peru have 90% if they win as they finish with a fairly easy home match against Paraguay.

Brazil - Chile
Home	Draw	Away
81%	79%	60%	Uru - Per
100%	100%	73%	98.1%	Home
67%	59%	53%	65%	Draw
10%	11%	10%	10%	Away

 

Chile need to win away against Brazil to have a chance.

Brazil - Chile
Home	Draw	Away
< 1%	2%	26%	Uru - Per
< 1%	< 1%	27%	1.9%	Home
< 1%	11%	32%	4%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	16%	1.2%	Away

World Cup: Asian Qualifiers

Iran and South Korea have clinched direct qualifications. UAE, Iraq and Lebanon are fighting over the playoff place. The match between Iraq and UAE will likely determine who takes the third place. After than UAE play South Korea (home) and Iraq play Syria (away).

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Iran	8	22	25.7	(25-26)	< 1%	34%	66%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
South Korea	8	20	23.8	(23-26)	< 1%	66%	34%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
United Arab Emirates	8	9	10.3	(9-12)	62%	< 1%	< 1%	62%	9%	1%	1%
Iraq	8	5	8.88	(8-11)	30%	< 1%	< 1%	30%	12%	3%	3%
Lebanon	8	6	7.67	(6-9)	8%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Syria	8	2	4.52	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B is more open with three teams fighting over the two direct tickets. On Thursday Japan visit Australia and Saudi play China (away). On Tuesday Saudi play Australia while Japan host Vietnam.

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Japan	8	18	21.8	(21-24)	12%	43%	46%	12%	10%	4%	92%
Saudi Arabia	8	19	21.7	(20-23)	14%	43%	43%	14%	9%	2%	88%
Australia	8	15	18.1	(16-19)	75%	14%	11%	75%	60%	21%	46%
Oman	8	8	11.1	(10-12)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
China	8	5	7.3	(6-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Vietnam	8	3	4.72	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Japan: As shown in the table below, Japan clinch qualification if they beat Australia and practically (98%) clinch qualification with a draw.

Australia - Japan
Home	Draw	Away
74%	98.3%	100%	Chi - Sau
91%	99.98%	100%	95.9%	Home
86%	97.4%	100%	93%	Draw
52%	97.3%	100%	78%	Away

Saudi Arabia simply clinch qualification if they take as many points against China as Australia take against Japan. Otherwise take have to avoid losing against Australia in the last match or hope for help from Vietnam playing China.

Australia - Japan
Home	Draw	Away
77%	85%	100%	Chi - Sau
61%	58%	100%	73%	Home
65%	100%	100%	85%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	Away

Australia need to win against Japan. They can qualify with a draw too, but will then need help from China beating Saudi.

Australia - Japan
Home	Draw	Away
48%	17%	< 1%	Chi - Sau
49%	42%	< 1%	31%	Home
48%	2.6%	< 1%	22%	Draw
48%	2.7%	< 1%	22%	Away

PL: Spurs up as 2nd-favorite in CL race and West Ham out of top-4 race.

 

Hot Teams
Chelsea: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 more than expected
Tottenham: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 more than expected
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 more than expected

Cold Teams
Brighton: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 6.6 less than expected
Norwich: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 less than expected
Southampton: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	100%	< 1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	95.2%
League cup winners	100%	100%	>99.99%
Sixth team	100%	95.5%	2.3%
Seventh team	95.9%	11%	7%
Eighth team	17%	7%	4.2%

Simulated points for winner: 89 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

70

Man City

89.5

+62

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

>99.99%

60%

< 1%

< 1%

>99.99%

69

Liverpool

87.9

+63

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

>99.99%

39%

< 1%

< 1%

>99.99%

59

Chelsea

79.0

+48

< 1%

100%

>99.99%

99.96%

99.61%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.65%

54

Arsenal

70.3

+18

< 1%

99.85%

98.4%

90%

70%

< 1%

1.6%

28%

70%

51

Tottenham

65.3

+14

< 1%

97.7%

88%

55%

16%

< 1%

10%

72%

16%

50

Man United

64.9

+12

< 1%

97.3%

87%

49%

13%

< 1%

11%

73%

13%

45

West Ham

58.4

+10

< 1%

66%

20%

5%

< 1%

< 1%

38%

15%

17%

46

Wolves

56.5

+4

< 1%

32%

6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

33%

6%

< 1%

36

Leicester

51.5

-4

< 1%

6%

1.0%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

5%

20%

< 1%

36

Aston Villa

47.4

-1

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1.2%

< 1%

< 1%

35

Southampton

46.0

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34

Crystal Palace

45.3

-1

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

4.7%

< 1%

33

Brighton

43.0

-14

1.2%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

31

Newcastle

41.3

-21

4.9%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

29

Leeds

39.3

-33

16%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

30

Brentford

38.1

-20

19%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

25

Everton

37.0

-24

34%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

20

Burnley

36.3

-17

37%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Watford

30.8

-34

88%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

17

Norwich

25.2

-52

99.63%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for title race
Burnley vs Man City (5.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	45%	53%	68%
Liverpool	55%	47%	32%
Liverpool vs Watford (2.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	42%	28%	22%
Man City	58%	72%	78%

	Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
97	2.1%	2.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
96	2.1%	< 1%	-	1.3%	1.3%	100%
95	8%	5%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	-
94	13%	5%	97.4%	5%	3.7%	98.0%
93	19%	6%	96.5%	9%	4.5%	86%
92	31%	12%	89%	14%	4.6%	89%
91	40%	9%	80%	25%	11%	69%
90	51%	11%	70%	34%	9%	59%
89	63%	12%	56%	45%	11%	48%
88	72%	9%	44%	57%	13%	32%
87	81%	8%	32%	67%	10%	24%
86	87%	7%	21%	76%	9%	15%
85	92%	4.5%	14%	84%	8%	9%
84	95.3%	3.4%	8%	89%	5%	5%
83	97.4%	2.1%	4%	94%	4.2%	2.7%
82	98.6%	1.2%	2%	96.3%	2.8%	1.1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal (4.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	60%	67%	80%
Tottenham	21%	18%	11%
Man United	18%	15%	9%
Tottenham vs Newcastle (2.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	21%	11%	8%
Arsenal	67%	74%	76%
Man United	12%	15%	16%

	Arsenal			West Ham			Tottenham			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
79	2.0%	1.2%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
78	3.4%	1.4%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
77	6%	2.4%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%
76	10%	4.2%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	15%	4.7%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	96%
74	21%	7%	99.0%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.1%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	89%
73	29%	8%	97.2%	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.9%	1.7%	83%	1.6%	< 1%	85%
72	38%	8%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	82%	4.9%	2.1%	72%	3.8%	2.2%	73%
71	48%	10%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	-	8%	3.2%	63%	6%	2.7%	60%
70	58%	10%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	63%	14%	6%	49%	10%	3.9%	49%
69	67%	9%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	45%	20%	6%	36%	17%	7%	34%
68	75%	9%	55%	< 1%	< 1%	36%	28%	8%	26%	24%	7%	24%
67	83%	7%	40%	1.8%	1.1%	28%	38%	10%	15%	33%	9%	15%
66	88%	6%	27%	3.3%	1.4%	22%	47%	9%	9%	44%	11%	7%
65	92%	4.4%	16%	6%	2.3%	18%	58%	10%	4.2%	54%	10%	3.6%
64	95.5%	3.0%	8%	10%	4.3%	17%	68%	10%	1.7%	65%	10%	1.5%
63	97.4%	1.9%	4%	15%	4.7%	16%	76%	8%	< 1%	74%	10%	< 1%
62	98.7%	1.2%	1%	21%	7%	16%	84%	7%	< 1%	82%	7%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs Leicester (2.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	91%	82%	75%
Wolves	5%	7%	9%
West Ham	30%	34%	36%
Tottenham vs Newcastle (2.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	92%	84%	79%
Wolves	5%	7%	8%
West Ham	30%	33%	36%

	Man United			Tottenham			Arsenal			Leicester			West Ham			Wolves			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
73	1.6%	< 1%	15%	2.9%	1.7%	17%	29%	8%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	3.8%	2.2%	27%	4.9%	2.1%	28%	38%	8%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	6%	2.7%	40%	8%	3.2%	37%	48%	10%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	10%	3.9%	50%	14%	6%	51%	58%	10%	20%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	37%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	17%	7%	65%	20%	6%	63%	67%	9%	30%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	24%	7%	76%	28%	8%	74%	75%	9%	44%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	62%	< 1%	< 1%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	33%	9%	84%	38%	10%	84%	83%	7%	59%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.8%	1.1%	67%	< 1%	< 1%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	44%	11%	90%	47%	9%	89%	88%	6%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	88%	3.3%	1.4%	68%	< 1%	< 1%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	54%	10%	92%	58%	10%	92%	92%	4.4%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	85%	6%	2.3%	65%	1.0%	< 1%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	65%	10%	90%	68%	10%	91%	95.5%	3.0%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	77%	10%	4.3%	56%	2.2%	1.1%	59%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	74%	10%	86%	76%	8%	87%	97.4%	1.9%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	15%	4.7%	46%	3.7%	1.5%	47%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	82%	7%	78%	84%	7%	80%	98.7%	1.2%	75%	< 1%	< 1%	53%	21%	7%	34%	8%	3.8%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	88%	6%	68%	89%	6%	69%	99.36%	< 1%	62%	1.6%	< 1%	39%	30%	9%	24%	12%	4.5%	20%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	93%	4.7%	56%	93%	4.0%	58%	99.71%	< 1%	51%	2.7%	1.1%	31%	39%	9%	15%	18%	6%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	95.8%	3.0%	43%	96.2%	2.9%	44%	99.89%	< 1%	37%	4.7%	1.9%	24%	49%	10%	8%	28%	10%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	18%
58	97.8%	2.0%	30%	98.0%	1.8%	31%	99.96%	< 1%	25%	8%	3.1%	21%	60%	11%	4.0%	37%	10%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	8%
57	98.9%	1.2%	20%	99.01%	< 1%	21%	99.99%	< 1%	17%	12%	3.8%	19%	69%	9%	1.7%	48%	11%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	6%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Wolves vs Aston Villa (5.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	47%	33%	25%
West Ham	65%	74%	77%
Aston Villa	< 1%	1.0%	3.5%
West Ham vs Everton (3.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	76%	63%	56%
Wolves	34%	43%	49%

	West Ham			Wolves			Man United			Tottenham			Leicester			Arsenal			Aston Villa
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
67	1.8%	1.1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	33%	9%	1.5%	38%	10%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	83%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	3.3%	1.4%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	44%	11%	2.7%	47%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	88%	6%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	6%	2.3%	16%	1.0%	< 1%	26%	54%	10%	4.7%	58%	10%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	92%	4.4%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	10%	4.3%	26%	2.2%	1.1%	36%	65%	10%	8%	68%	10%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	95.5%	3.0%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	15%	4.7%	36%	3.7%	1.5%	45%	74%	10%	13%	76%	8%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	30%	97.4%	1.9%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	21%	7%	45%	8%	3.8%	55%	82%	7%	20%	84%	7%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	37%	98.7%	1.2%	22%	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	30%	9%	53%	12%	4.5%	59%	88%	6%	28%	89%	6%	27%	1.6%	< 1%	42%	99.36%	< 1%	33%	< 1%	< 1%	55%
60	39%	9%	57%	18%	6%	58%	93%	4.7%	36%	93%	4.0%	36%	2.7%	1.1%	40%	99.71%	< 1%	41%	< 1%	< 1%	56%
59	49%	10%	58%	28%	10%	54%	95.8%	3.0%	44%	96.2%	2.9%	43%	4.7%	1.9%	35%	99.89%	< 1%	46%	< 1%	< 1%	52%
58	60%	11%	52%	37%	10%	46%	97.8%	2.0%	47%	98.0%	1.8%	47%	8%	3.1%	27%	99.96%	< 1%	50%	< 1%	< 1%	44%
57	69%	9%	45%	48%	11%	38%	98.9%	1.2%	46%	99.01%	< 1%	46%	12%	3.8%	19%	99.99%	< 1%	41%	< 1%	< 1%	31%
56	77%	9%	36%	61%	13%	30%	99.51%	< 1%	39%	99.58%	< 1%	41%	17%	5%	13%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	1.4%	< 1%	24%
55	85%	7%	25%	71%	10%	22%	99.80%	< 1%	31%	99.84%	< 1%	31%	24%	7%	7%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	3.1%	1.7%	13%
54	90%	5%	16%	80%	9%	17%	99.94%	< 1%	22%	99.95%	< 1%	24%	31%	8%	4.3%	100%	< 1%	-	5%	2.1%	8%
53	94%	4.1%	9%	88%	8%	12%	99.98%	< 1%	12%	99.99%	< 1%	15%	40%	9%	2.2%	100%	< 1%	-	8%	3.3%	4%
52	96.7%	2.7%	4%	93%	4.9%	8%	>99.99%	< 1%	7%	>99.99%	< 1%	8%	50%	10%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	14%	6%	1.8%
51	98.3%	1.6%	2%	96.2%	3.4%	5%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	59%	9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	20%	6%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Burnley vs Everton (10.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	75%	57%	44%
Everton	56%	69%	85%
Leeds vs Southampton (3.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	92%	82%	75%
West Ham vs Everton (2.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	61%	69%	82%
Brentford	82%	80%	77%
Burnley	64%	62%	58%
Burnley vs Man City (2.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	78%	65%	57%
Everton	62%	66%	68%
Brentford	77%	80%	82%
Leeds	81%	84%	86%

	Watford			Burnley			Everton			Brentford			Leeds			Newcastle			Brighton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
40	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	23%	6%	< 1%	26%	7%	< 1%	34%	10%	< 1%	46%	10%	< 1%	67%	10%	< 1%	83%	9%	< 1%
39	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	31%	7%	< 1%	34%	8%	< 1%	44%	10%	< 1%	57%	11%	< 1%	77%	9%	< 1%	90%	6%	< 1%
38	3.6%	1.6%	< 1%	39%	8%	< 1%	44%	9%	< 1%	55%	11%	< 1%	67%	10%	< 1%	85%	8%	< 1%	94%	4.5%	< 1%
37	7%	3.0%	< 1%	47%	9%	< 1%	53%	9%	< 1%	67%	12%	< 1%	76%	9%	< 1%	90%	6%	< 1%	97.2%	3.2%	< 1%
36	10%	3.6%	< 1%	56%	9%	< 1%	63%	10%	< 1%	77%	10%	< 1%	84%	8%	< 1%	95%	4.3%	< 1%	98.8%	1.5%	< 1%
35	15%	5%	< 1%	65%	8%	< 1%	72%	9%	< 1%	85%	8%	< 1%	90%	6%	< 1%	97.4%	2.9%	< 1%	99.53%	< 1%	< 1%
34	23%	8%	< 1%	73%	8%	< 1%	80%	8%	< 1%	92%	7%	< 1%	94%	4.3%	< 1%	98.8%	1.4%	< 1%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%
33	31%	8%	< 1%	80%	7%	< 1%	87%	7%	< 1%	95.9%	3.9%	< 1%	97.3%	2.9%	< 1%	99.57%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%
32	41%	10%	< 1%	86%	6%	< 1%	92%	5%	< 1%	98.2%	2.3%	< 1%	98.8%	1.5%	< 1%	99.93%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
31	53%	11%	< 1%	91%	4.7%	< 1%	95.2%	3.4%	< 1%	99.62%	1.4%	< 1%	99.56%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
30	63%	10%	< 1%	94%	3.4%	< 1%	97.5%	2.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
29	73%	10%	< 1%	96.4%	2.4%	< 1%	98.9%	1.4%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
28	82%	9%	< 1%	98.0%	1.6%	< 1%	99.54%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
27	88%	7%	< 1%	99.0%	< 1%	< 1%	99.85%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
26	93%	5.0%	< 1%	99.50%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
25	96.7%	3.5%	< 1%	99.79%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
24	98.5%	1.8%	< 1%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Liverpool	85%	10%	5%	Watford
Chelsea	79%	13%	8%	Brentford
Leeds	43%	24%	33%	Southampton
Wolves	54%	22%	24%	Aston Villa
Burnley	19%	21%	61%	Man City
Brighton	60%	21%	19%	Norwich
Man United	62%	20%	18%	Leicester
West Ham	62%	20%	18%	Everton
Tottenham	59%	21%	20%	Newcastle
Crystal Palace	32%	24%	44%	Arsenal
Burnley	51%	23%	26%	Everton