Argentina qualifies after 4-1 win against Brazil

 

Uruguay clinch qualifications if they win against Venezuela and Venezuela draw (or win) against Bolivia (57%)
Ecuador clinch qualifications if they win against Peru and Uruguay draw (or win) against Venezuela (42%)
Brazil clinch qualifications if they win against Paraguay and Ecuador (26%)
Paraguay clinch qualifications if they win against Uruguay and Brazil (3%)
Brazil clinch playoff if they win against Paraguay (73%)
Uruguay clinch playoff if they win against Venezuela (72%)
Colombia clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Peru and Chile win against Bolivia (31%)
Paraguay clinch playoff if they win against Uruguay (30%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-7	Top-6	World Cup
14	31	Argentina	39.6	+23	100%	100%	100%
14	21	Brazil	29.2	+9	>99.99%	99.91%	99.99%
14	21	Uruguay	29.1	+11	>99.99%	99.82%	99.96%
14	26	Ecuador	28.7	+8	100%	99.93%	99.98%
14	20	Colombia	27.5	+7	99.97%	99.39%	99.88%
14	21	Paraguay	25.1	-0	99.98%	97.0%	98.9%
14	15	Venezuela	18.7	-8	68%	3.1%	42%
14	14	Bolivia	17.3	-20	28%	< 1%	15%
14	10	Peru	13.6	-15	2.1%	< 1%	1.3%
14	10	Chile	13.3	-16	2.2%	< 1%	1.3%

First six team qualify for the World Cup finals. The 7th team qualify for the intercontinental playoff.

 

World Cup Qualifier - Africa

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The four best runner-ups play knockout playoff round
to determine which team will play in intercontinental
playoff.

Group A
Egypt clinch qualifications if they win against Ethiopia and Burkina Faso (39%)
Egypt clinch playoff if they win against Ethiopia and Burkina Faso (39%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
6	16	Egypt	25.6	+20	99.99%	99.80%	97.4%	97.9%
6	11	Burkina Faso	18.7	+10	89%	45%	2.5%	5%
6	8	Sierra Leone	14	+1	10%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
6	6	Guinea-Bissau	12	-1	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	6	Ethiopia	9.3	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	1	Djibouti	2.4	-25

Group B

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
6	12	Senegal	21.8	+15	97.9%	92%	70%	78%
6	13	Democratic Republic of Congo	20	+8	87%	62%	28%	32%
6	12	Sudan	15.8	+3	15%	6%	1.6%	1.7%
6	4	Togo	9.9	-2	< 1%
6	2	Mauritania	7.2	-8	< 1%
6	3	South Sudan	5	-15	< 1%

Group C

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
6	13	South Africa	21	+9	98.7%	92%	92%	92%
6	7	Nigeria	14.4	+4	50%	7%	6%	6%
6	8	Benin	14.2	0	38%	3.3%	2.1%	2.1%
6	8	Rwanda	11.5	-4	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	4	Zimbabwe	9.3	-4	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	6	Lesotho	9.2	-5	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
6	12	Cameroon	20.5	+13	92%	77%	53%	57%
6	13	Cape Verde	20.4	+5	89%	66%	45%	46%
6	7	Angola	15.2	+5	12%	4.8%	1.2%	1.6%
6	8	Libya	14.4	0	7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	5	Mauritius	6.5	-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	2	Eswatini	4	-12	< 1%

Group E
Morocco clinch qualifications if they win against Niger and Niger win against Tanzania (18%)
Morocco clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Zambia and win against Niger (78%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	15	Morocco	28.5	+27	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.95%	99.97%
4	6	Tanzania	17.9	+4	74%	32%	< 1%	1.1%
4	6	Niger	13.7	-0	15%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
4	3	Zambia	12.6	+1	11%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
3	0	Congo	7	-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	0	Eritrea	6.8	-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F
Ivory Coast clinch playoff if they win against Burundi and Gabon (33%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
6	16	Ivory Coast	25	+21	99.93%	99.53%	79%	82%
6	15	Gabon	22.4	+9	98.6%	89%	21%	24%
6	10	Burundi	13.1	+2	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	6	Kenya	12.7	+6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	4	Gambia	11	+2	< 1%
6	0	Seychelles	0.9	-39

Group G

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
6	15	Algeria	24.6	+18	99.87%	99.41%	96.5%	97.2%
6	12	Mozambique	19.4	+2	79%	46%	3.2%	5%
6	9	Uganda	14.9	0	10%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
6	7	Guinea	14	+2	8%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
6	9	Botswana	12.4	-3	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	1	Somalia	1.8	-19

Group H
Tunisia clinch playoff if they win against Liberia and Equatorial Guinea (31%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
6	16	Tunisia	25	+15	99.89%	99.29%	97.3%	97.6%
6	12	Namibia	17.8	+6	74%	27%	2.6%	3.0%
6	7	Equatorial Guinea	14.8	-0	14%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
6	10	Liberia	13.3	-1	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	6	Malawi	11.9	-1	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	0	São Tomé and Príncipe	2	-19

Group I

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
6	15	Ghana	21.3	+11	92%	81%	71%	72%
6	9	Mali	17.8	+10	62%	35%	19%	21%
6	12	Comoros	17.2	+1	35%	18%	9%	9%
6	10	Madagascar	14.8	+1	10%	3.4%	1.1%	1.1%
6	5	Central African Republic	10	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	0	Chad	3.4	-18

Runners-up

		Average when 2nd		Probabilities
Group	Team	Point	GD	2nd	Playoff	1st
F	Ivory Coast	22.5	18	21%	20%	79%
E	Morocco	21.9	16	< 1%	< 1%	99.95%
F	Gabon	21.7	9	78%	69%	21%
A	Egypt	21.4	14	2.5%	2.4%	97.4%
G	Algeria	20.9	13	3.3%	2.9%	96.5%
H	Tunisia	20.7	9	2.6%	2.0%	97.3%
B	Senegal	20.1	13	28%	22%	70%
G	Mozambique	20.1	3	75%	43%	3.2%
B	Democratic Republic of Congo	19.5	7	58%	34%	28%
D	Cape Verde	19.4	4	44%	21%	45%
D	Cameroon	19.4	12	38%	24%	53%
E	Tanzania	19.1	5	73%	32%	< 1%
I	Ghana	19.1	8	20%	10%	71%
A	Burkina Faso	19	10	86%	43%	2.5%
I	Comoros	19	4	27%	9%	9%
B	Sudan	18.6	6	13%	4.8%	1.6%
F	Burundi	18.6	8	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Mali	18.5	11	44%	16%	19%
H	Namibia	18.5	7	72%	24%	2.6%
I	Madagascar	18.2	6	9%	2.3%	1.1%
D	Angola	18.1	9	11%	3.6%	1.2%
G	Uganda	18	4	10%	1.8%	< 1%
D	Libya	18	5	7%	1.4%	< 1%
G	Guinea	17.7	6	8%	1.6%	< 1%
A	Sierra Leone	17.7	5	10%	1.9%	< 1%
H	Equatorial Guinea	17.6	3	14%	1.8%	< 1%
F	Kenya	17.4	11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Botswana	17.4	3	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Niger	17.2	5	15%	2.2%	< 1%
C	South Africa	17.2	4	7%	< 1%	92%
H	Liberia	17.2	4	7%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Central African Republic	16.9	2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Zambia	16.8	6	11%	1.2%	< 1%
H	Malawi	16.7	4	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Benin	16.2	3	36%	1.2%	2.1%
A	Guinea-Bissau	16.2	4	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Eritrea	16.1	-3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Gambia	16	7	< 1%	< 1%
B	Togo	15.9	5	< 1%	< 1%
C	Nigeria	15.8	6	44%	1.3%	6%
E	Congo	15.6	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Ethiopia	15.5	4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Mauritius	15.4	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Rwanda	15.4	1	9%	< 1%	< 1%
B	South Sudan	15	-2	< 1%	< 1%
C	Lesotho	14.7	2	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Zimbabwe	14.7	2	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Mauritania	14	2	< 1%	< 1%
D	Eswatini	14	0	< 1%	< 1%

 

World Cup Qualifier - Europe

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The 12 Runner-ups together with four best group winners
from Nations League play a play for the remaining four slots
 

Group A

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Germany	14.7	+12	100%	98.8%	89%	95%
0	0	Slovakia	9.2	+1	72%	72%	9%	23%
0	0	Northern Ireland	6.2	-4	97.2%	23%	1.6%	11%
0	0	Luxembourg	3.9	-9	7%	7%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Switzerland	10.8	+4	78%	78%	49%	59%
0	0	Sweden	9.2	+1	99.96%	59%	26%	46%
0	0	Slovenia	8.7	+1	53%	53%	22%	29%
0	0	Kosovo	4.7	-6	11%	11%	2.7%	3.5%

Group C

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Denmark	11.4	+5	81%	79%	47%	61%
0	0	Greece	10.4	+4	68%	68%	33%	45%
0	0	Scotland	9.1	+2	54%	50%	20%	29%
0	0	Belarus	2.9	-11	2.1%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	France	15.1	+14	100%	99.36%	88%	95.9%
0	0	Ukraine	10.4	+4	85%	85%	11%	36%
0	0	Iceland	5.9	-5	14%	14%	< 1%	2.2%
0	0	Azerbaijan	2.8	-13	1.8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Spain	15.9	+16	100%	99.73%	96.2%	99.14%
0	0	Turkey	8.5	-0	63%	63%	2.9%	21%
0	0	Georgia	6.8	-4	33%	33%	< 1%	8%
0	0	Bulgaria	3	-12	4.0%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Portugal	14.4	+12	100%	98.2%	83%	93%
0	0	Hungary	10.2	+3	79%	79%	15%	34%
0	0	Ireland	6.6	-4	21%	21%	2.0%	4.6%
0	0	Armenia	2.9	-12	2.3%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Netherlands	20.4	+20	99.09%	99.03%	87%	93%
2	6	Poland	15.9	+5	84%	84%	12%	28%
2	4	Finland	11.4	-1	17%	17%	1.0%	2.5%
2	1	Lithuania	5.1	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	0	Malta	3.8	-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Austria	20	+22	96.3%	96.3%	84%	89%
2	6	Bosnia and Herzegovina	15	+4	49%	49%	7%	9%
2	3	Romania	14.7	+11	>99.99%	55%	9%	30%
2	3	Cyprus	7.6	-8	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	0	San Marino	0.8	-30	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group I

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Italy	19.1	+16	97.5%	97.3%	59%	79%
2	6	Norway	18.1	+14	100%	97.1%	40%	61%
2	3	Israel	10.6	-3	6%	5%	< 1%	1.3%
2	3	Estonia	6.9	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	0	Moldova	3	-18	79%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%

Group J

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Belgium	18.7	+18	93%	93%	70%	79%
2	4	Wales	16	+11	100%	80%	25%	44%
2	4	North Macedonia	13	+6	99.80%	25%	5.0%	18%
2	3	Kazakhstan	8.8	-4	2.4%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
2	0	Liechtenstein	0.4	-30

Group K

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	6	England	20.9	+21	100%	99.19%	84%	94%
0	0	Serbia	16.6	+13	83%	82%	15%	38%
2	3	Albania	12.7	+4	18%	18%	< 1%	3.8%
2	3	Latvia	6.8	-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	0	Andorra	1.1	-25	< 1%	< 1%

Group L

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Croatia	19.8	+20	97.3%	97.1%	71%	83%
2	6	Czechia	17.5	+13	100%	89%	27%	47%
2	6	Montenegro	12.6	-0	13%	13%	1.8%	2.7%
2	0	Faroe Islands	5.8	-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	0	Gibraltar	2.1	-24	< 1%	< 1%

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	< 1%	99.73%	96.2%	99.14%
A	Germany	1.2%	98.8%	89%	95%
F	Portugal	1.8%	98.2%	83%	93%
D	France	< 1%	99.36%	88%	95.9%
K	England	< 1%	99.19%	84%	94%
I	Norway	2.9%	97.1%	40%	61%
J	Wales	20%	80%	25%	44%
L	Czechia	11%	89%	27%	47%
H	Romania	45%	55%	9%	30%
B	Sweden	41%	59%	26%	46%
J	North Macedonia	74%	25%	5.0%	18%
A	Northern Ireland	75%	23%	1.6%	11%
I	Moldova	79%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%
H	San Marino	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Italy	< 1%	97.3%	59%	79%
G	Netherlands	< 1%	99.03%	87%	93%
C	Denmark	1.6%	79%	47%	61%
L	Croatia	< 1%	97.1%	71%	83%
C	Scotland	3.6%	50%	20%	29%
K	Serbia	< 1%	82%	15%	38%
F	Hungary	< 1%	79%	15%	34%
J	Belgium	< 1%	93%	70%	79%
G	Poland	< 1%	84%	12%	28%
I	Israel	< 1%	5%	< 1%	1.3%

 

Iran qualifies after draw with Uzbekistan

Iran clinched qualification from Group A. Uzbekistan is in a good (93%) position to gran the second spot from Group A.  South Korea is a point from securing qualification and the the match between Jordan (76%) and Iraq (20%) will likely decide who takes the second spot. In Group C, Australia is in a good (97%) position and the final match against Saudi Arabia might become a decider.

 

Group A
Uzbekistan clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against United Arab Emirates (67%)
Qatar clinch round 4 if North Korea draw (or win) against Kyrgyzstan and United Arab Emirates draw (or win) against Kyrgyzstan (64%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-4	Top-2	World Cup
8	20	Iran	24.7	+13	100%	100%	100%
8	17	Uzbekistan	20.7	+6	100%	93%	97.5%
8	13	United Arab Emirates	16.1	+8	100%	7%	46%
8	10	Qatar	11.4	-7	94%	< 1%	37%
8	6	Kyrgyzstan	7.6	-8	6%	< 1%	< 1%
8	2	North Korea	4.3	-11

Group B
South Korea clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Kuwait (96%)
Jordan clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Oman and win against Iraq (33%)
Iraq clinch qualifications if they win against South Korea and Jordan (7%)
Iraq clinch round 4 if Kuwait draw (or win) against Palestine (64%)
Oman clinch round 4 if they draw (or win) against Palestine and South Korea draw (or win) against Kuwait (60%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-4	Top-2	World Cup
8	16	South Korea	20.4	+10	100%	99.88%	99.98%
8	13	Jordan	16.2	+7	100%	76%	89%
8	12	Iraq	14.1	-0	99.01%	20%	60%
8	10	Oman	12.7	-2	88%	4.8%	35%
8	6	Palestine	8.7	-5	13%	< 1%	2.9%
8	5	Kuwait	6.6	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C
Australia clinch qualifications if they win against Saudi Arabia (47%)
Saudi Arabia clinch round 4 if they draw (or win) against Bahrain and Japan draw (or win) against Indonesia (51%)
Indonesia clinch round 4 if they win against China and Australia draw (or win) against Saudi Arabia (26%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-4	Top-2	World Cup
8	20	Japan	24.4	+26	100%	100%	100%
8	13	Australia	15.8	+7	100%	91%	97.4%
8	10	Saudi Arabia	12.2	-3	93%	9%	44%
8	9	Indonesia	10.5	-9	51%	< 1%	6%
8	6	Bahrain	9.1	-8	35%	< 1%	13%
8	6	China	8.8	-13	21%	< 1%	4.7%

Top-2 advance to the World Cup.
3rd and 4th teams advance to Round 4.
The six teams in Round 4 play two groups of three teams.
The winners qualify for the world cup.
Runners-up play playoff in which the winners advance.
to the intercontinental playoff.

 

New Zealand go to the World Cup

New Zealand won the final playoff in Oceania and clinched qualification. Runner-up, New Caledonia, get a second chance in the intercontinental playoff.

	Probabilities
Team	World Cup
New Caledonia	10%
New Zealand	100%

 

African Worldcup Qualifiers

North African countries Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco have nearly qualified.

Group A

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	13	Egypt	25.2	+21	99.91%	99.59%	97.8%	98.2%
5	8	Burkina Faso	17.2	+9	71%	29%	1.9%	3.7%
5	8	Sierra Leone	14.3	-1	17%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
5	6	Guinea-Bissau	13.2	-0	11%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	3	Ethiopia	8.9	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	1	Djibouti	2.7	-22	< 1%

Group B

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	9	Senegal	21.5	+16	95.1%	89%	73%	79%
5	10	Democratic Republic of Congo	18.7	+6	66%	43%	20%	23%
5	11	Sudan	17.3	+4	38%	21%	7%	7%
5	4	Togo	10.1	-3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	2	Mauritania	8.4	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	2	South Sudan	4.5	-17	< 1%

Group C

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	10	South Africa	19.5	+7	89%	72%	69%	70%
5	6	Nigeria	15.6	+5	54%	19%	16%	16%
5	8	Benin	15.4	+2	43%	15%	12%	13%
5	7	Rwanda	12.6	-2	12%	2.4%	2.1%	2.1%
5	3	Zimbabwe	8.9	-6	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	5	Lesotho	8.9	-6	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	9	Cameroon	19.8	+13	82%	69%	56%	58%
5	10	Cape Verde	18.2	+3	55%	36%	23%	24%
5	7	Angola	17.2	+7	47%	28%	17%	18%
5	8	Libya	15	+1	15%	6%	3.9%	4.0%
5	4	Mauritius	6.1	-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	1	Eswatini	5.2	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
3	9	Morocco	27.6	+28	99.97%	99.93%	99.11%	99.43%
3	6	Tanzania	18.2	+3	73%	37%	< 1%	2.0%
3	6	Niger	14.1	-1	16%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%
4	3	Zambia	12.6	+1	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
3	0	Congo	7	-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	0	Eritrea	6.8	-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	13	Ivory Coast	24.3	+21	99.39%	98.3%	84%	86%
5	12	Gabon	20.5	+8	89%	70%	15%	18%
5	6	Kenya	14.2	+7	8%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
5	7	Burundi	12.8	-1	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	4	Gambia	11.6	+1	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	Seychelles	1.1	-37

Group G

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	12	Algeria	24	+16	99.02%	97.6%	88%	90%
5	12	Mozambique	19.8	+5	79%	56%	11%	13%
5	7	Guinea	15.4	+3	16%	8%	< 1%	1.4%
5	6	Uganda	13.3	-1	4.1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
5	6	Botswana	12.1	-2	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	1	Somalia	2	-20

Group H

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	13	Tunisia	24.5	+15	99.49%	98.4%	94%	95%
5	11	Namibia	18	+6	67%	33%	4.9%	5%
5	6	Equatorial Guinea	15.4	0	24%	7%	< 1%	1.1%
5	7	Liberia	12.6	-1	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	6	Malawi	12.3	-1	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	São Tomé and Príncipe	2.5	-19	< 1%

Group I

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	12	Ghana	19.8	+8	75%	61%	46%	47%
5	8	Mali	18.9	+11	72%	55%	37%	40%
5	9	Comoros	16.6	+2	29%	17%	9%	10%
5	10	Madagascar	16.1	+4	24%	14%	7%	7%
5	4	Central African Republic	9.7	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	Chad	3.8	-19	< 1%

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The four best runner-ups play knockout playoff round
to determine which team will play in intercontinental
playoff.

Runners-up

		Average when 2nd		Probabilities
Group	Team	Point	GD	2nd	Playoff	1st
E	Morocco	22	20	< 1%	< 1%	99.11%
F	Ivory Coast	21.4	18	15%	14%	84%
G	Algeria	20.9	12	11%	10%	88%
A	Egypt	20.6	15	2.1%	1.8%	97.8%
H	Tunisia	20.5	10	5%	4.1%	94%
F	Gabon	20.4	8	74%	54%	15%
G	Mozambique	20.2	5	68%	45%	11%
B	Senegal	19.7	14	22%	16%	73%
E	Tanzania	19.3	5	73%	36%	< 1%
I	Ghana	19.1	8	28%	15%	46%
B	Democratic Republic of Congo	19.1	6	45%	23%	20%
H	Namibia	18.9	7	62%	28%	4.9%
I	Mali	18.9	11	35%	18%	37%
D	Cape Verde	18.9	4	32%	12%	23%
I	Comoros	18.8	5	19%	8%	9%
D	Cameroon	18.8	12	26%	13%	56%
B	Sudan	18.8	7	32%	14%	7%
G	Guinea	18.7	7	15%	7%	< 1%
I	Madagascar	18.6	7	17%	7%	7%
H	Equatorial Guinea	18.4	4	23%	7%	< 1%
D	Angola	18.3	9	31%	11%	17%
A	Burkina Faso	18.2	10	69%	27%	1.9%
F	Kenya	18.1	12	7%	3.0%	< 1%
D	Libya	18.1	5	11%	2.6%	3.9%
G	Uganda	17.9	5	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Burundi	17.8	6	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Niger	17.7	4	16%	3.8%	< 1%
A	Sierra Leone	17.5	3	17%	3.1%	< 1%
C	South Africa	17.5	5	20%	2.8%	69%
G	Botswana	17.5	5	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Central African Republic	17.2	2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Malawi	17.2	5	5%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Liberia	17.1	5	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Gambia	17.1	8	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Benin	17	4	30%	2.6%	12%
A	Guinea-Bissau	16.9	4	11%	1.0%	< 1%
E	Zambia	16.9	6	10%	1.4%	< 1%
C	Nigeria	16.7	7	38%	3.2%	16%
B	Togo	16.4	5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Rwanda	16.3	2	10%	< 1%	2.1%
E	Eritrea	16.1	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Mauritius	15.9	-0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Mauritania	15.7	3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Congo	15.6	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	South Sudan	15.4	-3	< 1%	< 1%
C	Lesotho	15.4	2	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Zimbabwe	15.3	2	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Ethiopia	15.3	1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Eswatini	15	3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Chad	15	-5	< 1%	< 1%
A	Djibouti	14.5	-6	< 1%	< 1%
H	São Tomé and Príncipe	14.3	-3	< 1%	< 1%