Playoff

Turkey became the best third and have clinched qualification to Euro16.

Seeded countries are Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ukraine, Sweden, and Hungary. They will be drawn against the unseeded countries: Denmark, Republic of Ireland, Norway, and Slovenia.

57% Bosnia and Herzegovina
67% Ukraine
68% Sweden
48% Hungary
56% Denmark
45% Ireland
27% Norway
32% Slovenia

Euro 16

Country	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
Austria	10	28	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Northern Ire	10	21	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Portugal	8	21	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
England	10	30	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Germany	10	22	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Spain	10	27	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Iceland	9	20	100	91	9	0	0	0	qualified
Belgium	9	20	100	79	21	0	0	0	qualified
Wales	9	18	100	21	79	0	0	0	qualified
Czechia	9	19	100	9	91	0	0	0	qualified
Poland	10	21	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Albania	8	14	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Russia	10	20	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Switzerland	10	21	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Romania	10	20	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Slovakia	10	22	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Italy	9	21	99.82	91	1	7	0.7	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Norway; otherwise 96%
Croatia	9	18	99.8	0	93	6	0.6	0	qualified if they win against Malta; otherwise 98%
Hungary	10	16	87	0	0	78	22	0	93% if Italy draw (or win) against Norway; otherwise 50%
Ukraine	10	19	64	0	0	0	100	0
Sweden	10	18	64	0	0	0	100	0
Denmark	8	12	60	0	0	0	100	0
Ireland	10	18	48	0	0	0	100	0
Turkey	9	15	44	0	0	9	72	19	56% if they draw (or win) against Iceland; otherwise 12%
Bosnia and H	9	14	41	0	0	0	81	19	49% if they draw (or win) against Cyprus; otherwise 0%
Norway	9	19	39	9	6	0	86	0	qualified if they win against Italy; otherwise 53%
Slovenia	10	16	34	0	0	0	100	0
Netherlands	9	13	17	0	0	0	19	81	38% if Iceland win against Turkey; otherwise 0%
Cyprus	9	12	2	0	0	0	16	84	46% if they win against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 0%
Israel	9	13	1	0	0	0	3	97	19% if they win against Belgium; otherwise 0%

Group A	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Iceland	9	20	100	91	9	0	0	0	qualified
2. Czechia	9	19	100	9	91	0	0	0	qualified
3. Turkey	9	15	44	0	0	9	72	19	56% if they draw (or win) against Iceland; otherwise 12%
4. Netherlands	9	13	17	0	0	0	19	81	38% if Iceland win against Turkey; otherwise 0%
5. Latvia	9	5	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Kazakhstan	9	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group B	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Belgium	9	20	100	79	21	0	0	0	qualified
2. Wales	9	18	100	21	79	0	0	0	qualified
3. Bosnia and H	9	14	41	0	0	0	81	19	49% if they draw (or win) against Cyprus; otherwise 0%
4. Israel	9	13	1	0	0	0	3	97	19% if they win against Belgium; otherwise 0%
5. Cyprus	9	12	2	0	0	0	16	84	46% if they win against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 0%
6. Andorra	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group C	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Spain	10	27	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Slovakia	10	22	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Ukraine	10	19	64	0	0	0	100	0
4. Belarus	10	11	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Luxembourg	10	4	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Macedonia	10	4	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group D	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Germany	10	22	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Poland	10	21	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Ireland	10	18	48	0	0	0	100	0
4. Scotland	10	15	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Georgia	10	9	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Gibraltar	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group E	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. England	10	30	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Switzerland	10	21	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Slovenia	10	16	34	0	0	0	100	0
4. Lithuania	10	10	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Estonia	10	10	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. San Marino	10	1	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group F	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Northern Ire	10	21	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Romania	10	20	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Hungary	10	16	87	0	0	78	22	0	93% if Italy draw (or win) against Norway; otherwise 50%
4. Finland	10	12	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Faroe Island	10	6	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Greece	10	6	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group G	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Austria	10	28	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Russia	10	20	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Sweden	10	18	64	0	0	0	100	0
4. Montenegro	10	11	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Liechtenstei	10	5	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Moldova	10	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group H	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Italy	9	21	99.82	91	1	7	0.7	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Norway; otherwise 96%
2. Norway	9	19	39	9	6	0	86	0	qualified if they win against Italy; otherwise 53%
3. Croatia	9	18	99.8	0	93	6	0.6	0	qualified if they win against Malta; otherwise 98%
4. Bulgaria	9	8	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Azerbaijan	9	6	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Malta	9	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group I	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Portugal	8	21	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Albania	8	14	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Denmark	8	12	60	0	0	0	100	0
4. Serbia	8	7	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Armenia	8	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Euro 16

Country	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
Austria	9	25	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Spain	9	24	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Germany	10	22	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Portugal	8	21	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
England	9	27	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Northern Ire	10	21	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Iceland	9	20	100	91	9	0	0	0	qualified
Belgium	9	20	100	79	21	0	0	0	qualified
Wales	9	18	100	21	79	0	0	0	qualified
Czechia	9	19	100	9	91	0	0	0	qualified
Poland	10	21	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Denmark	8	12	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Switzerland	9	18	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Romania	10	20	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Italy	9	21	99.4	91	1	5	2	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Norway; otherwise 86%
Croatia	9	18	99.3	0	93	5	2	0	qualified if they win against Malta; otherwise 92%
Slovakia	9	19	98	0	93	0.6	7	0	qualified if they win against Luxembourg; otherwise 82%
Russia	9	17	95	0	87	0	13	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Montenegro; otherwise 57%
Ukraine	9	19	79	0	7	24	69	0	97% if they win against Spain; otherwise 51%
Hungary	10	16	77	0	0	57	43	0	89% if Spain draw (or win) against Ukraine; otherwise 56%
Sweden	9	15	72	0	13	0	87	0	93% if Montenegro win against Russia; otherwise 50%
Ireland	10	18	54	0	0	0	100	0
Turkey	9	15	48	0	0	8	72	19	56% if they draw (or win) against Iceland; otherwise 12%
Bosnia and H	9	14	45	0	0	0	81	19	49% if they draw (or win) against Cyprus; otherwise 0%
Norway	9	19	43	9	6	0	86	0	qualified if they win against Italy; otherwise 53%
Slovenia	9	13	39	0	0	0	100	0
Albania	8	11	32	0	0	0	100	0
Netherlands	9	13	17	0	0	0	19	81	38% if Iceland win against Turkey; otherwise 0%
Cyprus	9	12	2	0	0	0	16	84	46% if they win against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 0%
Israel	9	13	1	0	0	0	3	97	18% if they win against Belgium; otherwise 0%

Group A	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Iceland	9	20	100	91	9	0	0	0	qualified
2. Czechia	9	19	100	9	91	0	0	0	qualified
3. Turkey	9	15	48	0	0	8	72	19	56% if they draw (or win) against Iceland; otherwise 12%
4. Netherlands	9	13	17	0	0	0	19	81	38% if Iceland win against Turkey; otherwise 0%
5. Latvia	9	5	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Kazakhstan	9	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Netherlands need to beat Czechia while Turkey lose against Iceland; otherwise Netherlands have failed to qualify, which haven't happen since World Cup 86.

Group B	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Belgium	9	20	100	79	21	0	0	0	qualified
2. Wales	9	18	100	21	79	0	0	0	qualified
3. Bosnia and H	9	14	45	0	0	0	81	19	49% if they draw (or win) against Cyprus; otherwise 0%
4. Israel	9	13	1	0	0	0	3	97	18% if they win against Belgium; otherwise 0%
5. Cyprus	9	12	2	0	0	0	16	84	46% if they win against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 0%
6. Andorra	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	100

Bosnia meet Cyprus in the last round and need to win to ensure a ticket to playoff. Israel play Belgium and can snitch a plaoyff ticket if they and Bosnia and Cyprus draw.

Group C	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Spain	9	24	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Slovakia	9	19	98	0	93	0.6	7	0	qualified if they win against Luxembourg; otherwise 82%
3. Ukraine	9	19	79	0	7	24	69	0	97% if they win against Spain; otherwise 51%
4. Belarus	9	10	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Luxembourg	9	4	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Macedonia	9	3	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group D	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Germany	10	22	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Poland	10	21	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Ireland	10	18	54	0	0	0	100	0
4. Scotland	10	15	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Georgia	10	9	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Gibraltar	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group E	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. England	9	27	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Switzerland	9	18	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Slovenia	9	13	39	0	0	0	100	0
4. Lithuania	9	10	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Estonia	9	10	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. San Marino	9	1	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group F	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Northern Ire	10	21	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Romania	10	20	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Hungary	10	16	77	0	0	57	43	0	89% if Spain draw (or win) against Ukraine; otherwise 56%
4. Finland	10	12	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Faroe Island	10	6	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Greece	10	6	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group G	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Austria	9	25	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Russia	9	17	95	0	87	0	13	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Montenegro; otherwise 57%
3. Sweden	9	15	72	0	13	0	87	0	93% if Montenegro win against Russia; otherwise 50%
4. Montenegro	9	11	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Liechtenstei	9	5	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Moldova	9	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Russia are likely to qualify. Sweden can only steal the second spot if they win against Moldova and Russia lose against Montenegro.

Group H	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Italy	9	21	99.4	91	1	5	2	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Norway; otherwise 86%
2. Norway	9	19	43	9	6	0	86	0	qualified if they win against Italy; otherwise 53%
3. Croatia	9	18	99.3	0	93	5	2	0	qualified if they win against Malta; otherwise 92%
4. Bulgaria	9	8	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Azerbaijan	9	6	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Malta	9	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Italy play Norway in last round while Croatia meet Malta. Norway qualify if they win against Italy. Croatia qualify if they win against Malta. If they draw, they qualify Norway lose against Italy.

Group I	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Portugal	8	21	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Denmark	8	12	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Albania	8	11	32	0	0	0	100	0
4. Serbia	8	10	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Armenia	8	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Euro 16 group D, F, and I

Group D	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	out	Comment
Germany	9	19	99.3	43	48	0.04	9	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Georgia; otherwise 89%
Poland	9	18	88	32	42	0	25	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Ireland; otherwise 50%
Ireland	9	18	66	24	9.5	0.03	66	0	qualified if they win against Poland; otherwise 56%
Scotland	9	12	0	0	0	0	0	100
Georgia	9	9	0	0	0	0	0	100
Gibraltar	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	100

Germany need a point against Georgia to clinch qualification. If that happens, Ireland and Poland play about the second spot. Ireland need to win or draw with 2-2 (or more). If Germany lose and Ireland and Poland draw, all three countries end on 19p. An table with only this teams looks like

Ireland	6p
Poland	5p
Germany	4p

that is Ireland and Poland clinch qualification.

Group F	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	out	Comment
Northern Ire	9	20	100	58	42	0	0	0	qualified
Romania	9	17	98	42	51	2	5	0	qualified if they win against Faroe Islands; otherwise 86%
Hungary	9	16	78	0	7	56	37	0	91% if Spain draw (or win) against Ukraine; otherwise 62%
Finland	9	11	0	0	0	0	0	100
Faroe Island	9	6	0	0	0	0	0	100
Greece	9	3	0	0	0	0	0	100

Northern Ireland have qualified. Romania and Hungary fight about the second spot. Romania play Faroe Island at home, and Hungary play Greece away. Romania need to take at least as many points as Hungary in last round. If Hungary draws and Romania lose, so both countries end with 17p, Hungary qualifies on more away goals in internal games. Romania and Hungary drew 1-1 in Romania and 0-0 in Hungary. If Hungary ends third, which is very likely, they are the favourites (55%) to be the best 3rd and thereby avoiding playoff

Group I	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	out	Comment
Portugal	7	18	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Denmark	8	12	87	0	70	0	30	0	qualified if Portugal draw (or win) against Serbia; otherwise 50%
Serbia	7	10	56	0	30	0	55	16	qualified if they win against Portugal; otherwise 39%
Albania	7	8	5	0	0	0	16	84	23% if they win against Armenia; otherwise 0%
Armenia	7	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Portugal qualified. Denmark and Serbia fight about the second spot while Albania fight with Serbia about third spot. Serbia play Portugal in last round while Albania play Armenia. Serbia clinch second spot if they win against Portugal. If they draw they clinch the playoff spot as they have better results against Albania. If they lose and Albania win, Albania grab the playoff ticket.

CL Match Day 2

A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98%	2	6	6-0	Real Madrid	99.5% if they draw (or win) against Shakhtar; otherwise 91%
95%	2	6	5-0	Paris SG	98.6% if they draw (or win) against Shakhtar; otherwise 76%
6%	2	0	0-7	Shakhtar	25% if they win against Paris SG; otherwise 2%
2%	2	0	0-4	Malmoe	8% if they win against Paris SG; otherwise 0.5%

The question mark in this group was whether Shakhtar would be able to challenge Paris. With Paris winning against Shakhtar away (well they play in Lviv) the answer seems to be no and this group looks almost closed already. Quite likely Real Madrid and Paris will qualify (>90%).

B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
25%	2	3	4-4	PSV	47% if they win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 13%
52%	2	3	3-3	CSKA Moskva	73% if they win against Wolfsburg; otherwise 34%
56%	2	3	3-3	Man United	78% if they win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 40%
67%	2	3	2-2	Wolfsburg	82% if they win against Man United; otherwise 46%

This was the most open groups beforehand and after two matches and with each team with a win and a loss, not much as changed: the group is still wide-open.

C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
95%	2	6	4-1	Benfica	99.94% if they win against Galatasaray; otherwise 90%
92%	2	3	3-2	Atletico	98% if they win against Galatasaray; otherwise 77%
11%	2	1	2-4	Galatasaray	28% if they win against Benfica; otherwise 3%
2%	2	1	2-4	FK Astana	27% if they win against Atletico; otherwise 1%

The least uncertain group upfront and it looks like the favourites, Atletico and Benfica, will do the expected and qualify (>85%).

D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
91%	2	6	4-1	Juventus	96% if they draw (or win) against Man City; otherwise 75%
36%	2	3	3-3	Man City	75% if they win against Sevilla; otherwise 33%
62%	2	3	3-2	Sevilla	75% if they win against Man City; otherwise 30%
11%	2	0	1-5	Gladbach	17% if they win against Juventus; otherwise 2%

The most open group upfront with three equally good teams with 60% chance and a challenger in Gladbach. Juventus has won against both their greatest competitors, which means they must be favourites to win the group now. Very important matches between Sevilla and Man City in Match Day 3 and 4.

E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
88%	2	4	3-2	Barcelona	98.8% if they win against BATE; otherwise 84%
79%	2	3	5-3	Leverkusen	84% if they win against Roma; otherwise 43%
15%	2	3	4-6	BATE	46% if they win against Leverkusen; otherwise 7%
18%	2	1	3-4	Roma	43% if they draw (or win) against Leverkusen; otherwise 6%

The champions, Barcelona, started with a draw away in Rome and managed to turn around their match against Leverkusen. Leverkusen have done what you can expect with three points against BATE and a loss away in Barcelona. Roma lost against BATE and need good results against Leverkusen in next two matches.

F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99%	2	6	8-0	Bayern	qualified if they draw (or win) against Arsenal; otherwise 97%
51%	2	3	3-5	Olympiakos	70% if they draw (or win) against Arsenal; otherwise 26%
26%	2	3	2-6	Dinamo Zagreb	63% if they win against Olympiakos; otherwise 16%
23%	2	0	3-5	Arsenal	46% if they win against Olympiakos; otherwise 6%

One of the given groups beforehand with an outstanding favourite in Bayern. Bayern have virtually already qualified (>99%). Arsenal has had the most negative start of all team with two losses against Zagreb and Olympiacos and decreased their chance from 73% to 23%. Currently Olympiacos looks like the favourite to grab the second spot in this group.

G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
53%	2	4	4-2	Dynamo Kyiv	78% if they win against Chelsea; otherwise 36%
81%	2	4	4-3	Porto	97% if they win against Dynamo Kyiv; otherwise 65%
65%	2	3	5-2	Chelsea	80% if they draw (or win) against Dynamo Kyiv; otherwise 40%
0.9%	2	0	0-6	M Tel Aviv	4% if they win against Dynamo Kyiv; otherwise 0.2%

Chelsea and Porto favourites beforehand. Kyiv grabbed their chance with a win against Tel Aviv and a draw away against Porto. Chelsea lost away agsint Porto, which makes the matches between Chelsea and Kyiv and next rounds extra important.

H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
87%	2	6	5-3	Zenit	98.9% if they win against Lyon; otherwise 77%
89%	2	3	3-3	Valencia	95% if they draw (or win) against Lyon; otherwise 60%
20%	2	1	1-2	Lyon	45% if they win against Zenit; otherwise 9.4%
4%	2	1	2-3	Gent	13% if they win against Valencia; otherwise 1%

The two favourites, Valencia and Zenit, have done the expected while Lyon only drew against Gent in the first match.

Euro 16 - Day 8

Four more countries clinched their tickets to France: Portugal, Austria, Iceland, and Czechia. That means there are 18 seats available.

Country	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
Portugal	6	15	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
England	8	24	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Austria	8	22	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Iceland	8	19	100	59	41	0	0	0	qualified
Czechia	8	19	100	41	59	0	0	0	qualified
Germany	8	19	99.92	86	13	0.09	0.9	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Ireland; otherwise 97%
Wales	8	18	99.83	47	53	0.1	0.3	0	qualified if Belgium draw (or win) against Israel; otherwise 98.2%
Slovakia	8	19	99.8	61	38	0.5	0.6	0	qualified if they win against Luxembourg; otherwise 98.3%
Spain	8	21	99.6	39	50	9	2	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Ukraine; otherwise 97%
Romania	8	16	99.4	77	21	0.2	1	0.08	qualified if they win against Faroe Islands; otherwise 96%
Belgium	8	17	99.3	52	44	1	3	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Israel; otherwise 85%
Italy	8	18	98.8	84	9.4	2	4	0	qualified if they win against Norway; otherwise 91%
Switzerland	8	15	97	0	92	0.4	8	0.1	qualified if they win against Estonia; otherwise 90%
Northern Ire	8	17	95	22	67	5	6	0	qualified if Greece draw (or win) against Hungary; otherwise 90%
Croatia	8	15	95	8	74	4	14	0	99.3% chance to qualify if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 76%
Russia	8	14	90	0	75	8	13	4	97% chance to qualify if they draw (or win) against Montenegro; otherwise 45%
Denmark	7	12	89	0	73	0.008	27	0	97% chance to qualify if they draw (or win) against Portugal; otherwise 80%
Poland	8	17	85	11	69	0.2	9.4	10	99% chance to qualify if they draw (or win) against Ireland; otherwise 43%
Ukraine	8	16	79	0.6	11	30	58	0	92% chance to qualify if they win against Spain; otherwise 61%
Sweden	8	12	72	0	24	0.02	74	1	89% chance to qualify if Moldova win against Russia; otherwise 56%
Hungary	8	13	67	0.6	12	31	56	0.8	86% chance to qualify if they win against Greece; otherwise 65%
Norway	8	16	51	8	16	4	72	0	98.9% chance to qualify if they win against Italy; otherwise 61%
Netherlands	8	10	49	0	0	0	55	45	40% chance to qualify if Czechia win against Turkey; otherwise 14%
Ireland	8	15	43	3	18	0.06	43	36	88% chance to qualify if they win against Poland; otherwise 27%
Slovenia	8	12	39	0	8	0.009	89	3	54% chance to qualify if they draw (or win) against Lithuania; otherwise 38%
Albania	6	8	32	0	20	0.5	38	42	61% chance to qualify if they draw (or win) against Serbia; otherwise 8%
Turkey	8	12	25	0	0	3	42	55	40% chance to qualify if they draw (or win) against Czechia; otherwise 10%
Serbia	6	7	25	0	7	0.4	34	58	52% chance to qualify if they win against Albania; otherwise 6%
Scotland	8	11	24	0	0	0	46	54	33% chance to qualify if they draw (or win) against Poland; otherwise 0%
Bosnia and H	8	11	22	0	0	0	43	57	31% chance to qualify if they win against Cyprus; otherwise 5%
Israel	8	13	21	0.7	3	0.2	50	46	38% chance to qualify if they win against Cyprus; otherwise 9.4%
Montenegro	8	11	2	0	0.9	0	5	94	21% chance to qualify if they win against Russia; otherwise 0.2%
Estonia	8	10	0.4	0	0.1	0	1	98.6	4% chance to qualify if they win against Switzerland; otherwise 0.1%
Cyprus	8	9	0.3	0	0	0	3	97	10% chance to qualify if they win against Israel; otherwise 0%
Lithuania	8	9	0.3	0	0	0	2	98	9% chance to qualify if they win against Slovenia; otherwise 0%
Finland	8	10	0.2	0	0.01	0.0001	0.8	99.1	3% chance to qualify if Faroe Islands draw (or win) against Hungary; otherwise 0.04%
Group A	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Czechia	8	19	100	41	59	0	0	0	qualified
2. Iceland	8	19	100	59	41	0	0	0	qualified
3. Turkey	8	12	25	0	0	3	42	55	40% chance to qualify if they draw (or win) against Czechia; otherwise 10%
4. Netherlands	8	10	49	0	0	0	55	45	40% chance to qualify if Czechia win against Turkey; otherwise 14%
5. Latvia	8	4	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Kazakhstan	8	2	0	0	0	0	0	100
Group B	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Wales	8	18	99.83	47	53	0.1	0.3	0	qualified if Belgium draw (or win) against Israel; otherwise 98.2%
2. Belgium	8	17	99.3	52	44	1	3	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Israel; otherwise 85%
3. Israel	8	13	21	0.7	3	0.2	50	46	38% chance to qualify if they win against Cyprus; otherwise 9.4%
4. Bosnia and H	8	11	22	0	0	0	43	57	31% chance to qualify if they win against Cyprus; otherwise 5%
5. Cyprus	8	9	0.3	0	0	0	3	97	10% chance to qualify if they win against Israel; otherwise 0%
6. Andorra	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Group C	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Spain	8	21	99.6	39	50	9	2	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Ukraine; otherwise 97%
2. Slovakia	8	19	99.8	61	38	0.5	0.6	0	qualified if they win against Luxembourg; otherwise 98.3%
3. Ukraine	8	16	79	0.6	11	30	58	0	92% chance to qualify if they win against Spain; otherwise 61%
4. Belarus	8	7	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Luxembourg	8	4	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Macedonia	8	3	0	0	0	0	0	100
Group D	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Germany	8	19	99.92	86	13	0.09	0.9	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Ireland; otherwise 97%
2. Poland	8	17	85	11	69	0.2	9.4	10	99% chance to qualify if they draw (or win) against Ireland; otherwise 43%
3. Ireland	8	15	43	3	18	0.06	43	36	88% chance to qualify if they win against Poland; otherwise 27%
4. Scotland	8	11	24	0	0	0	46	54	33% chance to qualify if they draw (or win) against Poland; otherwise 0%
5. Georgia	8	6	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Gibraltar	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Group E	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. England	8	24	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Switzerland	8	15	97	0	92	0.4	8	0.1	qualified if they win against Estonia; otherwise 90%
3. Slovenia	8	12	39	0	8	0.009	89	3	54% chance to qualify if they draw (or win) against Lithuania; otherwise 38%
4. Estonia	8	10	0.4	0	0.1	0	1	98.6	4% chance to qualify if they win against Switzerland; otherwise 0.1%
5. Lithuania	8	9	0.3	0	0	0	2	98	9% chance to qualify if they win against Slovenia; otherwise 0%
6. San Marino	8	1	0	0	0	0	0	100
Group F	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Northern Ire	8	17	95	22	67	5	6	0	qualified if Greece draw (or win) against Hungary; otherwise 90%
2. Romania	8	16	99.4	77	21	0.2	1	0.08	qualified if they win against Faroe Islands; otherwise 96%
3. Hungary	8	13	67	0.6	12	31	56	0.8	86% chance to qualify if they win against Greece; otherwise 65%
4. Finland	8	10	0.2	0	0.01	0.0001	0.8	99.1	3% chance to qualify if Faroe Islands draw (or win) against Hungary; otherwise 0.04%
5. Faroe Island	8	6	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Greece	8	3	0	0	0	0	0	100
Group G	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Austria	8	22	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Russia	8	14	90	0	75	8	13	4	97% chance to qualify if they draw (or win) against Montenegro; otherwise 45%
3. Sweden	8	12	72	0	24	0.02	74	1	89% chance to qualify if Moldova win against Russia; otherwise 56%
4. Montenegro	8	11	2	0	0.9	0	5	94	21% chance to qualify if they win against Russia; otherwise 0.2%
5. Liechtenstei	8	5	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Moldova	8	2	0	0	0	0	0	100
Group H	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Italy	8	18	98.8	84	9.4	2	4	0	qualified if they win against Norway; otherwise 91%
2. Norway	8	16	51	8	16	4	72	0	98.9% chance to qualify if they win against Italy; otherwise 61%
3. Croatia	8	15	95	8	74	4	14	0	99.3% chance to qualify if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 76%
4. Bulgaria	8	8	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Azerbaijan	8	6	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Malta	8	2	0	0	0	0	0	100
Group I	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Portugal	6	15	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Denmark	7	12	89	0	73	0.008	27	0	97% chance to qualify if they draw (or win) against Portugal; otherwise 80%
3. Albania	6	8	32	0	20	0.5	38	42	61% chance to qualify if they draw (or win) against Serbia; otherwise 8%
4. Serbia	6	7	25	0	7	0.4	34	58	52% chance to qualify if they win against Albania; otherwise 6%
5. Armenia	7	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Euro 16

Day 7 completed and England first country to clinch a ticket to France and Euro 16.

Country	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
England	7	21	100	99.8	0.2	0	0	0	qualified
Iceland	7	18	99.98	90	9.6	0.06	0.05	0	qualify if they draw (or win) against Kazakhstan
Romania	7	15	99.5	81	18	0.2	1	0.08
Slovakia	7	18	99.4	69	28	2	1	0	qualify if they win against Ukraine
Spain	7	18	99.4	27	58	11	4	0
Austria	7	19	99.2	85	13	0.1	2	0	qualify if they draw (or win) against Sweden
Portugal	5	12	99	87	9.6	0.2	3	0.3	qualify if they win against Albania
Italy	7	15	99	45	51	0.4	4	0.04
Germany	7	16	98.9	84	13	0.07	3	0.8	qualify if they win against Scotland and Gibraltar win against Poland
Croatia	7	15	98.7	53	42	0.8	4	0.03	qualify if they win against Norway and Bulgaria win against Italy
Belgium	7	14	98.6	29	65	1	4	0.3
Switzerland	7	15	98	0.2	95	0.2	5	0.06	qualify if they win against England and Slovenia draw (or win) against Estonia
Wales	7	17	98	69	26	0.9	3	0.7	qualify if they win against Israel
Czechia	7	16	93	9.6	72	1	17	0.4	qualify if they win against Latvia and Turkey draw (or win) against Netherlands
Sweden	7	12	90	15	53	2	30	0.2
Denmark	6	11	89	9.4	62	1	26	1
Northern Ireland	7	16	88	18	65	2	14	1	qualify if they win against Hungary and Faroe Islands draw (or win) against Finland
Netherlands	7	10	83	0.05	17	3	70	9.7
Ukraine	7	15	81	4	14	25	57	0
Russia	7	11	81	0.6	34	27	35	4
Poland	7	14	74	9	50	5	19	18
Hungary	6	9	48	1	14	12	45	27
Scotland	7	11	46	4	20	0.1	40	36
Albania	5	8	41	3	24	0.9	38	34
Norway	7	13	40	2	6	1	89	0.8
Ireland	7	12	38	3	18	0.08	32	47
Slovenia	7	9	33	0	4	0.3	77	19
Israel	7	12	31	2	8	0.1	60	30
Serbia	6	7	21	0.04	4	0.6	31	64
Bosnia and Herzegovina	7	8	14	0.009	0.5	0.004	25	74
Finland	6	7	11	0.4	3	0.6	24	72
Turkey	7	9	6	0.002	1	0.3	9	90
Estonia	7	10	5	0	1	0.02	17	82
Montenegro	7	8	1	0	0.2	0.002	4	96
Cyprus	7	9	0.8	0.003	0.1	0.0004	4	95
Bulgaria	7	8	0.3	0	0.007	0.01	0.8	99.2
Lithuania	7	6	0.2	0	0	0	1	98.7
Georgia	7	6	0.2	0	0.0005	0	0.8	99.2
Faroe Islands	7	6	0.01	0	0.0003	0	0.1	99.9
Liechtenstein	7	5	0.003	0	0.0006	0.0002	0.02	99.98
Azerbaijan	7	5	0.002	0	0	0	0.01	99.986
Greece	7	2	0.001	0	0	0	0.004	99.996
Latvia	7	4	0.0005	0	0	0	0.002	99.998
Group A	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Iceland	7	18	99.98	90	9.6	0.06	0.05	0	qualify if they draw (or win) against Kazakhstan
2. Czechia	7	16	93	9.6	72	1	17	0.4	qualify if they win against Latvia and Turkey draw (or win) against Netherlands
3. Netherlands	7	10	83	0.05	17	3	70	9.7
4. Turkey	7	9	6	0.002	1	0.3	9	90
5. Latvia	7	4	0.0005	0	0	0	0.002	99.998
6. Kazakhstan	7	1	0	0	0	0	0	100
Group B	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Wales	7	17	98	69	26	0.9	3	0.7	qualify if they win against Israel
2. Belgium	7	14	98.6	29	65	1	4	0.3
3. Bosnia and Herzegovina	7	8	14	0.009	0.5	0.004	25	74
4. Israel	7	12	31	2	8	0.1	60	30
5. Cyprus	7	9	0.8	0.003	0.1	0.0004	4	95
6. Andorra	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Group C	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Spain	7	18	99.4	27	58	11	4	0
2. Slovakia	7	18	99.4	69	28	2	1	0	qualify if they win against Ukraine
3. Ukraine	7	15	81	4	14	25	57	0
4. Belarus	7	4	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Luxembourg	7	4	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Macedonia	7	3	0	0	0	0	0	100
Group D	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Germany	7	16	98.9	84	13	0.07	3	0.8	qualify if they win against Scotland and Gibraltar win against Poland
2. Poland	7	14	74	9	50	5	19	18
3. Ireland	7	12	38	3	18	0.08	32	47
4. Scotland	7	11	46	4	20	0.1	40	36
5. Georgia	7	6	0.2	0	0.0005	0	0.8	99.2
6. Gibraltar	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Group E	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. England	7	21	100	99.8	0.2	0	0	0	qualified
2. Switzerland	7	15	98	0.2	95	0.2	5	0.06	qualify if they win against England and Slovenia draw (or win) against Estonia
3. Estonia	7	10	5	0	1	0.02	17	82
4. Slovenia	7	9	33	0	4	0.3	77	19
5. San Marino	7	1	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Lithuania	7	6	0.2	0	0	0	1	98.7
Group F	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Romania	7	15	99.5	81	18	0.2	1	0.08
2. Northern Ireland	7	16	88	18	65	2	14	1	qualify if they win against Hungary and Faroe Islands draw (or win) against Finland
3. Hungary	6	9	48	1	14	12	45	27
4. Finland	6	7	11	0.4	3	0.6	24	72
5. Greece	7	2	0.001	0	0	0	0.004	99.996
6. Faroe Islands	7	6	0.01	0	0.0003	0	0.1	99.9
Group G	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Austria	7	19	99.2	85	13	0.1	2	0	qualify if they draw (or win) against Sweden
2. Russia	7	11	81	0.6	34	27	35	4
3. Sweden	7	12	90	15	53	2	30	0.2
4. Montenegro	7	8	1	0	0.2	0.002	4	96
5. Liechtenstein	7	5	0.003	0	0.0006	0.0002	0.02	99.98
6. Moldova	7	2	0	0	0	0	0.0006	99.999
Group H	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Croatia	7	15	98.7	53	42	0.8	4	0.03	qualify if they win against Norway and Bulgaria win against Italy
2. Italy	7	15	99	45	51	0.4	4	0.04
3. Norway	7	13	40	2	6	1	89	0.8
4. Bulgaria	7	8	0.3	0	0.007	0.01	0.8	99.2
5. Azerbaijan	7	5	0.002	0	0	0	0.01	99.986
6. Malta	7	1	0	0	0	0	0	100
Group I	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Portugal	5	12	99	87	9.6	0.2	3	0.3	qualify if they win against Albania
2. Albania	5	8	41	3	24	0.9	38	34
3. Denmark	6	11	89	9.4	62	1	26	1
4. Serbia	6	7	21	0.04	4	0.6	31	64
5. Armenia	6	1	0	0	0	0	0	100