CL: Predictions of knockout stage

Here are our predictions of the knockout stage

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Barcelona	87%	59%	39%	23%
Man City	86%	55%	33%	19%
Juventus	58%	34%	19%	10%
Real Madrid	72%	38%	19%	9%
Liverpool	51%	28%	15%	7%
Bayern	49%	27%	14%	7%
Tottenham	58%	29%	13%	6%
Paris SG	60%	28%	12%	5%
Atletico	42%	22%	11%	5%
Dortmund	42%	18%	7%	3%
Man United	40%	16%	5%	2%
Porto	57%	19%	6%	2%
Roma	43%	12%	3%	<1%
Ajax	28%	9%	2%	<1%
Lyon	13%	4%	<1%	<1%
Schalke	14%	3%	<1%	<1%

CL: Match Day 6: Group E-H

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	14	15-5	Bayern
100%	6	12	11-5	Ajax
0%	6	7	6-11	Benfica
0%	6	0	2-13	AEK

Bayern managed to draw Ajax after both teams scoring twice last 10 minutes.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	13	16-6	Man City
100%	6	8	12-11	Lyon
0%	6	6	8-16	Shakhtar
0%	6	3	11-14	Hoffenheim

Lyon needed a draw in Kiev (50%) to advance. With a goal by Shakhtar in 22nd minute that looked problematic and Shakhtar had 75% chance, which crashed down to 35% when Lyon equalised in 65th.

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	12	12-5	Real Madrid
100%	6	9	11-8	Roma
0%	6	7	7-16	Viktoria Plzen
0%	6	7	8-9	CSKA Moskva

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	12	9-4	Juventus
100%	6	10	7-4	Man United
0%	6	8	6-6	Valencia
0%	6	4	4-12	Young Boys

Both top teams lost and Juve could thereby keep the first spot.

Probability for different match-ups in next round. You can't play a team from your own league or from the same group, which means for example for Man City there are only four alternatives left.

Winner \ Runner-up	Tott	Lyon	Live	Ajax	Man	Roma	Atle	Scha	Total
Dortmund	17%	17%	17%	13%	17%	15%			100%
Porto	14%	14%	14%	11%	14%	13%	16%		100%
Paris SG	16%			13%	16%	15%	18%	18%	100%
Barcelona		17%	17%	13%	17%	16%		18%	100%
Real Madrid	17%	17%	17%	13%	17%			17%	100%
Bayern	16%	16%	16%		16%	15%	17%		100%
Man City				20%		23%	28%	27%	100%
Juventus	16%	16%	16%	13%			18%	18%	100%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

CL: Match Day 6: Group A-D

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	13	9-2	Dortmund
100%	6	13	9-6	Atletico
0%	6	6	6-5	Brugge
0%	6	1	2-13	Monaco

Group was already decided. Dortmund snatched the first spot.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	14	14-5	Barcelona
100%	6	8	9-10	Tottenham
0%	6	8	6-7	Inter
0%	6	2	6-13	PSV

Big drama. With an early goal by Barcelona it did not look bright for Tottenham (<20%), but PSV scored a couple of minutes later, which meant Inter needed to score or Tottenham would go through. When Inter equalized in 73rd they bumped thei chances from <40% to >80%. Now Tottenham needed to score at Camp Nou or rely on PSV again, and 12 minutes later they  flipped everything when they responded and equalized.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	11	16-9	Paris SG
100%	6	9	9-7	Liverpool
0%	6	9	7-5	Napoli
0%	6	4	5-16	Red Star

PSG won their match in Belgrade, which meant the match in Liverpool decided who would join them in the last 16. Liverpool needed to win and scored a goal in 35th minute.

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	16	15-6	Porto
100%	6	11	6-4	Schalke
0%	6	4	5-8	Galatasaray
0%	6	3	4-12	Lok Moskva

Winner \ Runner-up	Man	Juve	Baye	Ajax	Man	Lyon	Tott	Shak	Live	Roma	Scha	Atle	Total
Dortmund	<1%	1%		10%	17%	7%	18%	8%	18%	16%			100%
Barcelona	<1%	1%	3%	10%	16%	7%		7%	17%	16%	18%		100%
Paris SG	<1%	<1%	3%	9%	14%		15%	6%		14%	16%	17%	99%
Real Madrid	<1%	1%	3%	10%	16%	7%	17%	7%	17%		17%		100%
Porto	<1%	<1%	3%	9%	13%	6%	14%	6%	14%	13%		16%	99%
Man City		1%	5%	14%						21%	25%	27%	95%
Juventus	<1%		3%	9%		6%	15%	7%	15%		16%	17%	92%
Bayern	<1%	<1%			11%	5%	12%	5%	12%	11%		13%	75%
Ajax	<1%	<1%			3%	1%	3%	1%	3%	3%	3%	3%	24%
Man United			<1%	<1%		<1%		<1%		1%	1%	1%	7%
Lyon		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	4%
Total	4%	7%	24%	75%	92%	43%	100%	52%	100%	100%	100%	100%

CL: Match Day 5: Groups A-D

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	12	9-6	Atletico
100%	5	10	8-2	Dortmund
0%	5	5	6-5	Brugge
0%	5	1	2-12	Monaco

Group is decided. Dortmund need to win against Monaco while Atletico don't win against Brugge.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	13	13-4	Barcelona
30%	5	7	8-9	Tottenham	58% if they draw (or win) against Barcelona; otherwise 12%
70%	5	7	5-6	Inter	88% if Barcelona win against Tottenham; otherwise 42%
0%	5	1	5-12	PSV

Tottenham advance if they take as many points away against Barcelona as Inter take against PSV at home.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
49%	5	9	7-4	Napoli	qualified if they draw (or win) against Liverpool; otherwise 8%
96%	5	8	13-8	Paris SG	99.989% if they draw (or win) against Red Star; otherwise 44%
56%	5	6	8-7	Liverpool	qualified if they win against Napoli; otherwise 0%
0%	5	4	4-13	Red Star

Napoli advance if they win, draw, score a goal and lose with one goal (1-2, 2-3 etc) against Liverpool - or if PSG do not win against Red Star

Liverpool advance if they win with 1-0 or with two goals against Napoli or if Paris do not win against Red Star.

PSG advance if they win against Red Star or if Liverpool do not win against Red Star.

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	13	12-4	Porto
100%	5	8	5-4	Schalke
0%	5	4	3-5	Galatasaray
0%	5	3	4-11	Lok Moskva

This  group is dead. Porto win the group and Schalke is runner-up.

 Below are the probabilities for possible match-ups in stage 16.

Winner \ Runner-up	Man	Atle	Juve	Baye	Pari	Ajax	Napo	Live	Man	Dort	Lyon	Shak	Scha	Roma	Tott	Inte	Total
Barcelona	<1%		1%	3%	4%	8%	3%	7%	14%	12%	6%	6%	14%	15%			100%
Real Madrid	<1%		1%	3%	4%	8%	3%	7%	14%	12%	6%	6%	14%		4%	11%	100%
Porto	<1%	1%	1%	3%	4%	8%	3%	6%	14%	12%	6%	6%		15%	4%	10%	100%
Man City		1%	1%	5%	4%	11%	4%			16%			17%	20%		13%	96%
Atletico	<1%		1%	3%	3%	8%	3%	6%	13%		5%	6%	12%	13%	4%	10%	92%
Juventus	<1%	1%		4%	5%	11%		8%		16%	8%	8%	18%		5%		89%
Bayern	<1%	1%	1%		3%		3%	6%	13%		5%	6%		14%	4%	10%	70%
Paris SG	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%		5%			9%	9%		4%	9%	10%	3%	7%	63%
Ajax	<1%	<1%	<1%		1%		<1%	2%	4%	3%	1%	1%	3%	4%	1%	3%	29%
Napoli	<1%	<1%		1%		3%			4%	4%	2%	2%	5%		1%		25%
Liverpool		<1%	<1%	<1%		1%				1%	<1%	<1%	1%	2%		1%	11%
Man United		<1%		<1%	<1%	1%	<1%			1%	<1%	<1%	1%	1%		1%	10%
Dortmund	<1%		<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%		<1%	<1%		1%	<1%	1%	7%
Lyon		<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	3%
Total	3%	7%	10%	29%	32%	70%	21%	45%	89%	92%	44%	51%	100%	99%	30%	69%

CL: Match Day 5: Groups E-H

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	13	12-2	Bayern
100%	5	11	8-2	Ajax
0%	5	4	5-11	Benfica
0%	5	0	2-12	AEK

Bayern and Ajax advance to last 16. We have a group final in the last match when Ajax host Bayern in Amsterdam. Ajax need to win to win the group.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	10	14-5	Man City
50%	5	7	11-10	Lyon	qualified if they draw (or win) against Shakhtar; otherwise 0%
50%	5	5	7-15	Shakhtar	qualified if they win against Lyon; otherwise 0%
0%	5	3	10-12	Hoffenheim

Shakhtar scored a crucial last-minute goal to win against Hoffenheim. This means that a win (home) against Lyon in the last match suffice to advance to the last 16.

Group G

Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	12	12-2	Real Madrid
100%	5	9	10-6	Roma
0%	5	4	5-15	Viktoria Plzen
0%	5	4	5-9	CSKA Moskva

This group is dead. Real Madrid has won the group and Roma is second.

Group H

Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	12	8-2	Juventus
100%	5	10	6-2	Man United
0%	5	5	4-5	Valencia
0%	5	1	2-11	Young Boys

With Man United's important last-minute winner against Young Boys, this group is more or less decided. Juventus and Man United advance to the last 16, and Juventus will likely (88%) win the group. Juventus need to either win against Young Boys or that Valencia takes a point at home against Man United.

CL: Match Day 4: Groups E-H

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.6%	4	10	7-1	Bayern	qualified if they draw (or win) against Benfica; otherwise 97%
97%	4	8	6-2	Ajax	qualified if Bayern draw (or win) against Benfica; otherwise 73%
4%	4	4	4-6	Benfica	29% if they win against Bayern; otherwise 0%
0%	4	0	2-10	AEK

Group E is almost dead. Benfica need to win against Bayern in next round  to have a chance.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.3%	4	9	12-3	Man City	qualified if they draw (or win) against Hoffenheim; otherwise 93%
70%	4	6	9-8	Lyon	96% if they draw (or win) against Shakhtar; otherwise 44%
13%	4	3	8-9	Hoffenheim	28% if they win against Shakhtar; otherwise 2%
18%	4	2	4-13	Shakhtar	36% if they win against Lyon; otherwise 0%

Hoffenheim kept the group alive with a late equalizer against Lyon. Man City need one more point to qualify. Lyon have probably qualified if they win against Shakhtar in next match. Shakhtar must win against Lyon or they are out. Hoffenheim need a good result against Man City and a draw might not be good enough (if Lyon win).

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98%	4	9	10-2	Real Madrid	qualified if they draw (or win) against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 68%
99.5%	4	9	10-4	Roma	qualified if Real Madrid draw (or win) against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 93%
3%	4	4	4-7	CSKA Moskva	39% if they win against Real Madrid; otherwise 0%
0%	4	1	3-14	Viktoria Plzen

Group G is probably dead. Moskva need to win both against Plzen (home) in next match and against Real Madrid (away) in the last match. Roma clinch advancement if they draw against Real Madrid.

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.8%	4	9	7-2	Juventus	qualified if they draw (or win) against Valencia; otherwise 91%
84%	4	7	5-2	Man United	99.2% if they draw (or win) against Valencia; otherwise 63%
17%	4	5	4-4	Valencia	39% if they win against Man United; otherwise 0.9%
0%	4	1	2-10	Young Boys

Man United scored a very important last minute winning goal against Juventus. Juventus can clinch advancement with a point against Valencia. Valencia will need a good result against Juventus (away), at least as good as Man United get against Young Boys (home), and then beat Man United in the last match at home.

Winner \ Runner-up	Barc	Man	Baye	Juve	Real	Port	Atle	Dort	Live	Napo	Pari	Scha	Roma	Man	Ajax	Lyon	Vale	Inte	Brug	Red	Tott	Hoff	Gala	CSKA	Benf	Shak	Total
Barcelona		1%	2%	2%		3%		9%	4%	5%	5%	11%	12%	12%	11%	8%			<1%	<1%		1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	98%
Man City	<1%		2%	2%	3%	3%	6%	9%		5%	4%	10%	12%		10%		2%	11%	<1%	<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%		88%
Bayern	<1%	1%		2%	3%	2%	5%		4%	5%	4%		11%	11%		7%	2%	11%	<1%	<1%	4%		<1%	<1%		2%	83%
Juventus	<1%	1%	2%		3%	3%	6%	10%	4%		4%	11%			10%	8%			<1%	<1%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	79%
Real Madrid		1%	1%	2%		2%		6%	3%	4%	3%	8%		8%	8%	6%		9%	<1%	<1%	3%	1%	<1%		<1%	1%	76%
Porto	<1%	1%	1%	1%	2%		4%	6%	3%	3%	3%		8%	7%	6%	5%	1%	8%	<1%	<1%	3%	1%		<1%		1%	72%
Atletico		<1%	1%	1%		1%			2%	3%	2%	6%	7%	7%	6%	5%		7%		<1%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	61%
Dortmund	<1%	<1%		1%	1%	1%			1%	2%	1%		4%	4%	4%	3%	<1%	5%		<1%	1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	37%
Liverpool	<1%		<1%	1%	1%	1%	2%	3%				4%	4%		4%	3%	<1%	4%	<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	35%
Napoli	<1%	<1%	<1%		1%	1%	2%	3%				4%		4%	4%	3%	<1%		<1%		1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	32%
Paris SG	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	1%	2%	3%				3%	3%	3%	3%		<1%	3%	<1%		1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	31%
Schalke	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%		1%		1%	1%	1%		3%	3%	3%	2%	<1%	3%	<1%	<1%	1%			<1%	<1%	<1%	27%
Roma	<1%	<1%	<1%			<1%	1%	2%	1%		1%	3%		3%	2%	2%	<1%		<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	23%
Man United	<1%		<1%		<1%	<1%	1%	1%		1%	<1%	2%	2%		2%	1%		2%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	17%
Ajax	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	2%	1%		1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	16%
Lyon	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%		1%	1%	1%	1%		<1%	1%	<1%		<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%		11%
Valencia		<1%	<1%			<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%
Inter		<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%
Brugge		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Red Star		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%				<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%
Tottenham			<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%			<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%
Total	1%	11%	16%	19%	21%	26%	37%	60%	29%	33%	36%	69%	75%	69%	79%	59%	11%	71%	2%	<1%	27%	10%	4%	3%	3%	18%

CL: Match Day 4: Groups A-D

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.2%	4	9	8-2	Dortmund	qualified if they draw (or win) against Brugge; otherwise 90%
99.3%	4	9	7-6	Atletico	qualified if Dortmund draw (or win) against Brugge; otherwise 96%
2%	4	4	6-5	Brugge	14% if they win against Dortmund; otherwise 0%
0%	4	1	2-10	Monaco

Group A is probably closed. Brugge must win two final games against Dortmund (away) and Atletico (home) to have a chance.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	10	11-3	Barcelona
73%	4	7	5-5	Inter	qualified if they draw (or win) against Tottenham; otherwise 61%
27%	4	4	7-9	Tottenham	39% if they win against Inter; otherwise 0%
0%	4	1	4-10	PSV

Barcelona have secured advancement. Even if they lose remaining games and both Tottenham and Inter end up on 10 points, they would have 7 points in the sub-table including those three team, Inter would have 4p and Tottenham would have 6p, so Barcelona would finish first and Tottenham second. The key match will be next match between Inter and Tottenham. If Inter manage to at least draw there, they have secured a ticket to the last 16 stage. If Tottenham win it will be important how win the double leg between Inter and Tottenham, where Inter won with 2-1 in Milan. If Tottenham get at least 1-0 or better it will suffice if they take as many point against Barcelona in the last match as Inter do against PSV. If Inter lose with one goal and scores at least two goals (2-3, 3-4 etc) they only need take as many points as Tottenham in the last match. If the match in London finish 2-1, Tottenham need to either take more points than Inter in the last round, or catch up two goals in goal difference (which seems unlikely to do at Nou Camp).

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
69%	4	6	4-3	Napoli	98% if they draw (or win) against Liverpool; otherwise 46%
66%	4	6	7-5	Liverpool	89% if they win against Napoli; otherwise 35%
65%	4	5	11-7	Paris SG	90% if they draw (or win) against Liverpool; otherwise 6%
0.9%	4	4	3-10	Red Star	9.1% if they draw (or win) against Napoli; otherwise 0%

Red Star took the little chance they have by winning against Liverpool.Napoli and PSG drew in Naples making this an extremely open three-horse race. Liverpool have the toughest schedule with PSG away and Napoli home. Napoli play Red Star at home next round and if they win there, a draw in Liverpool will suffice. Liverpool can clinch advancement with a win in Paris. If they draw, they probably need to against Napoli, and if they lose, they probably will need to win with more than one goal. PSG are probanly out if they lose home against Liverpool in next match, whereas if they draw they have really good chances as they play Red Star in last match.

Group D

Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.6%	4	10	9-3	Porto	qualified if they draw (or win) against Schalke; otherwise 94%
97%	4	8	4-1	Schalke	qualified if Lok Moskva draw (or win) against Galatasaray; otherwise 90%
4%	4	4	3-3	Galatasaray	15% if they win against Lok Moskva; otherwise 0%
0%	4	0	2-11	Lok Moskva

Porto and Schalke won their matches and probably closed the group. Galatasaray need to win remaining matches, away against Moskva and home against Porto, to have a theoretical chance. Porto will clinch advancement if they either take a point home against Schalke or away against Galatasaray. Schalke clinch advancement if they either win against Porto (away) or win against Moskva (home) or Galatasaray fail to win all remaining matches.