EL: Teams from CL are favorites

Teams from CL are favorites together with West Ham who have a bye into last 16.

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
H	West Ham	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	63%	41%	25%	14%
	Barcelona			100%	72%	50%	31%	19%	10%
	Dortmund			100%	71%	51%	31%	18%	10%
	Sevilla			100%	70%	47%	28%	16%	8%
	Atalanta			100%	70%	47%	28%	16%	8%
	Porto			100%	70%	47%	28%	16%	8%
G	Leverkusen	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	56%	30%	15%	7%
C	Napoli	100%	< 1%	100%	56%	37%	22%	12%	6%
A	Lyon	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	50%	25%	12%	5%
	RB Leipzig			100%	63%	41%	21%	10%	4.9%
D	Frankfurt	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	51%	24%	11%	4.8%
B	Sociedad	100%	< 1%	100%	48%	28%	14%	6%	2.7%
B	Monaco	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	42%	18%	7%	2.6%
G	Betis	100%	< 1%	100%	45%	25%	11%	4.8%	2.0%
E	Lazio	100%	< 1%	100%	40%	20%	8%	3.0%	1.2%
D	Olympiakos	100%	< 1%	100%	40%	20%	8%	2.9%	1.1%
	Zenit			100%	46%	19%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
F	Crvena Zvezda	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	26%	6%	1.4%	< 1%
A	Rangers	100%	< 1%	100%	32%	13%	4.0%	1.1%	< 1%
F	Braga	100%	< 1%	100%	30%	12%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Dinamo Zagreb	100%	< 1%	100%	30%	11%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Galatasaray	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	23%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Spartak Moskva	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	17%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sheriff Tiraspol			100%	19%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Updated probabilities for CL and EL

Updated probabilities for CL.

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
A	Man City	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	81%	55%	36%	21%
E	Bayern	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	73%	49%	31%	18%
B	Liverpool	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	77%	51%	31%	18%
H	Chelsea	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	60%	36%	20%	10%
D	Real Madrid	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	62%	33%	16%	8%
A	Paris SG	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	49%	25%	12%	5%
C	Ajax	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	56%	26%	11%	4.7%
F	Man United	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	59%	27%	11%	4.5%
D	Inter	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	43%	20%	9%	3.5%
B	Atletico	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	44%	18%	7%	2.5%
H	Juventus	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	52%	18%	6%	1.9%
E	Benfica	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	32%	10%	2.7%	< 1%
F	Atalanta	44%	56%	< 1%	56%	18%	7%	2.2%	< 1%
C	Sporting	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	27%	7%	1.8%	< 1%
G	Lille	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	32%	8%	1.5%	< 1%
G	Salzburg	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	22%	6%	1.3%	< 1%
F	Villarreal	56%	44%	< 1%	44%	12%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%

Updated probabilities of EL

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
H	West Ham	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	65%	41%	25%	15%
	Barcelona			100%	77%	50%	31%	19%	11%
	Dortmund			100%	76%	50%	30%	18%	10%
	Sevilla			100%	75%	47%	28%	16%	9%
	Porto			100%	75%	46%	28%	16%	8%
G	Leverkusen	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	58%	31%	16%	8%
A	Lyon	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	52%	26%	12%	5%
	RB Leipzig			100%	69%	40%	21%	10%	4.8%
D	Frankfurt	12%	88%	100%	94%	50%	24%	11%	4.7%
C	Napoli	19%	34%	53%	45%	27%	16%	9%	4.6%
	Atalanta			44%	33%	21%	12%	7%	3.7%
C	Leicester	21%	39%	60%	50%	28%	14%	7%	3.4%
B	Monaco	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	44%	18%	7%	2.7%
	Villarreal			56%	37%	20%	10%	4.6%	2.1%
E	Lazio	36%	64%	100%	79%	35%	14%	5%	2.0%
G	Betis	100%	< 1%	100%	46%	23%	10%	4.4%	1.9%
B	Sociedad	52%	< 1%	52%	25%	13%	6%	2.9%	1.3%
D	Olympiakos	88%	12%	100%	48%	21%	8%	3.1%	1.2%
B	PSV	48%	< 1%	48%	21%	10%	4.6%	1.9%	< 1%
	Zenit			100%	53%	20%	7%	2.2%	< 1%
F	Braga	29%	53%	83%	63%	21%	6%	1.6%	< 1%
A	Rangers	100%	< 1%	100%	32%	11%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Crvena Zvezda	42%	38%	80%	49%	14%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Dinamo Zagreb	67%	< 1%	67%	20%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Galatasaray	64%	36%	100%	51%	12%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Midtjylland	29%	8%	37%	16%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Spartak Moskva	20%	27%	48%	31%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sheriff Tiraspol			100%	25%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Genk	33%	< 1%	33%	6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Legia	39%	< 1%	39%	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

CL: Updated probabilities for CL and EL

Updated probabilities

Champions League

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
A	Man City	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	80%	54%	35%	21%
E	Bayern	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	76%	50%	32%	18%
B	Liverpool	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	77%	50%	31%	17%
H	Chelsea	< 1%	33%	67%	100%	68%	40%	22%	11%
D	Real Madrid	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	67%	35%	17%	8%
A	Paris SG	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	48%	24%	11%	5%
C	Ajax	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	59%	27%	11%	4.7%
F	Man United	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	59%	27%	11%	4.3%
D	Inter	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	42%	19%	8%	3.4%
B	Atletico	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	40%	16%	6%	2.2%
H	Juventus	< 1%	67%	33%	100%	39%	14%	4.2%	1.4%
E	Barcelona	56%	44%	< 1%	44%	17%	6%	2.2%	< 1%
F	Atalanta	41%	56%	< 1%	56%	18%	6%	2.1%	< 1%
G	Sevilla	33%	18%	17%	35%	13%	4.6%	1.5%	< 1%
C	Sporting	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	25%	7%	1.6%	< 1%
E	Benfica	44%	56%	< 1%	56%	17%	5%	1.4%	< 1%
G	Salzburg	18%	36%	29%	65%	17%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Villarreal	56%	44%	< 1%	44%	11%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Lille	49%	10%	42%	51%	16%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Wolfsburg	< 1%	37%	12%	49%	11%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Europa League

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
H	West Ham	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	66%	43%	27%	16%
	Dortmund			100%	76%	50%	31%	18%	10%
	Porto			100%	75%	46%	28%	16%	9%
G	Leverkusen	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	60%	33%	17%	8%
	Barcelona			56%	43%	28%	18%	11%	6%
A	Lyon	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	53%	27%	13%	6%
	RB Leipzig			100%	69%	40%	21%	11%	5%
D	Frankfurt	12%	88%	100%	94%	51%	25%	11%	5%
C	Napoli	19%	34%	53%	45%	28%	17%	9%	4.9%
C	Leicester	21%	39%	60%	50%	28%	15%	8%	3.7%
	Atalanta			41%	31%	20%	12%	7%	3.6%
B	Monaco	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	45%	19%	7%	2.9%
	Sevilla			33%	25%	16%	9%	5%	2.9%
	Benfica			44%	31%	18%	10%	5%	2.5%
E	Lazio	36%	64%	100%	80%	36%	15%	6%	2.2%
	Villarreal			56%	37%	20%	10%	4.8%	2.2%
G	Betis	100%	< 1%	100%	47%	24%	11%	4.7%	2.1%
B	Sociedad	52%	< 1%	52%	26%	14%	7%	3.2%	1.5%
D	Olympiakos	88%	12%	100%	49%	22%	9%	3.3%	1.3%
	Lille			49%	30%	15%	7%	3.0%	1.3%
B	PSV	48%	< 1%	48%	22%	11%	4.9%	2.1%	< 1%
	Zenit			100%	53%	20%	7%	2.3%	< 1%
F	Braga	29%	53%	83%	63%	22%	7%	1.8%	< 1%
	Salzburg			18%	12%	6%	2.9%	1.3%	< 1%
A	Rangers	100%	< 1%	100%	34%	12%	3.7%	1.1%	< 1%
F	Crvena Zvezda	42%	38%	80%	50%	14%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Dinamo Zagreb	67%	< 1%	67%	21%	7%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Galatasaray	64%	36%	100%	52%	13%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Midtjylland	29%	8%	37%	16%	4.3%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Spartak Moskva	20%	28%	48%	31%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Young Boys			2.4%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sheriff Tiraspol			100%	25%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Genk	33%	< 1%	33%	6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Legia	39%	< 1%	39%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

PL: City hotteet team in the league.

 

Hot Teams
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 more than expected
Norwich: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Aston Villa: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Brighton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected
Leicester: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 less than expected

Likely combination of teams in CL

Probability	Teams
31.8%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
26.1%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
15.1%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
7.6%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham
6.4%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Simulated points for winner: 84 - 90
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
35	Man City	84.4	+53	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.88%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	99.90%
34	Liverpool	81.8	+59	< 1%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.94%	99.63%	33%	< 1%	< 1%	99.68%
33	Chelsea	78.6	+49	< 1%	99.99%	99.93%	99.67%	98.5%	15%	< 1%	1.0%	98.7%
24	Man United	64.1	+14	< 1%	93%	84%	67%	41%	< 1%	14%	30%	43%
24	West Ham	62.2	+16	< 1%	88%	76%	56%	30%	< 1%	15%	27%	40%
23	Arsenal	60.9	+6	< 1%	82%	66%	44%	20%	< 1%	21%	32%	20%
25	Tottenham	57.7	-2	< 1%	63%	42%	23%	9%	< 1%	20%	25%	9%
19	Leicester	50.8	-5	1.0%	21%	10%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	15%	4.6%
21	Wolves	49.1	-8	1.9%	13%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	6%	< 1%
19	Aston Villa	48.0	-8	3.2%	10%	4.4%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%	5%	< 1%
20	Brighton	47.8	-9	3.2%	9%	4.0%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%	5.0%	< 1%
18	Everton	46.6	-12	5%	7%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	4.7%	< 1%
16	Crystal Palace	45.5	-6	7%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	3.8%	< 1%
16	Leeds	45.5	-13	7%	5%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	4.2%	< 1%
17	Brentford	42.7	-13	15%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.0%	< 1%
16	Southampton	42.2	-16	18%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.0%	< 1%
13	Watford	38.4	-21	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
10	Burnley	37.6	-16	43%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
10	Newcastle	33.4	-28	73%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
10	Norwich	31.8	-40	83%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brentford	50%	23%	27%	Watford
Man City	76%	14%	9%	Wolves
Arsenal	66%	19%	15%	Southampton
Chelsea	72%	17%	12%	Leeds
Liverpool	76%	15%	10%	Aston Villa
Norwich	24%	22%	54%	Man United
Burnley	33%	24%	43%	West Ham
Leicester	60%	21%	19%	Newcastle
Brighton	43%	24%	33%	Tottenham
Crystal Palace	48%	23%	28%	Everton

 

PL: Man United beat Arsenal in race for CL

Man United beat Arsenal in race for Champions League. Everton lose Mercyside derby and is now the team with poorest form, only one point in the last five matches, 4 less than expected.

Hot Teams
Norwich: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected
Arsenal: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected
Man City: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Everton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.1 less than expected
Newcastle: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Brentford: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected

Likely combination of teams in CL

Probability	Teams
29.2%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
22.5%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
20%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
6.9%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham
5.7%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Simulated points for winner: 84 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
32	Man City	83.5	+52	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.81%	48%	< 1%	< 1%	99.84%
31	Liverpool	80.7	+59	< 1%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.88%	99.39%	29%	< 1%	< 1%	99.48%
33	Chelsea	80.0	+50	< 1%	>99.99%	99.96%	99.81%	99.10%	23%	< 1%	< 1%	99.18%
21	Man United	63.2	+15	< 1%	90%	81%	64%	37%	< 1%	15%	30%	40%
23	Arsenal	62.4	+7	< 1%	86%	74%	55%	30%	< 1%	17%	32%	30%
21	West Ham	60.5	+15	< 1%	81%	67%	46%	22%	< 1%	16%	25%	34%
22	Tottenham	56.8	-4	< 1%	57%	38%	20%	8%	< 1%	18%	23%	8%
19	Leicester	52.0	-4	< 1%	27%	14%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	9%	17%	5%
21	Wolves	50.0	-8	1.6%	17%	8%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	7%	< 1%
19	Brighton	47.9	-10	3.6%	10%	4.7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%	5%	< 1%
16	Aston Villa	46.6	-9	6%	8%	3.3%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	4.7%	< 1%
15	Leeds	46.4	-12	6%	7%	3.1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	4.7%	< 1%
16	Crystal Palace	46.2	-6	6%	7%	3.1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	4.3%	< 1%
15	Everton	44.9	-13	9%	4.5%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	4.3%	< 1%
15	Southampton	42.8	-16	16%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	< 1%
16	Brentford	42.6	-14	16%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	< 1%
13	Watford	39.1	-20	36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
10	Burnley	38.8	-16	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
10	Norwich	32.5	-39	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%
7	Newcastle	32.1	-29	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
West Ham	36%	24%	40%	Chelsea
Newcastle	47%	24%	30%	Burnley
Wolves	23%	22%	55%	Liverpool
Southampton	46%	24%	30%	Brighton
Watford	17%	20%	64%	Man City
Leeds	56%	22%	22%	Brentford
Man United	65%	19%	16%	Crystal Palace
Tottenham	65%	19%	16%	Norwich
Aston Villa	45%	24%	31%	Leicester
Everton	36%	24%	40%	Arsenal