EL: Probabilities after playoff leg 1

 

Team	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Sevilla	91%	60%	43%	27%	16%
Porto	73%	46%	33%	20%	11%
West Ham	100%	50%	28%	16%	9%
Atalanta	72%	43%	29%	16%	9%
Barcelona	45%	29%	21%	13%	8%
Betis	91%	48%	29%	14%	7%
Napoli	55%	33%	22%	12%	6%
Leverkusen	100%	50%	25%	12%	6%
Lyon	100%	50%	24%	12%	5%
Frankfurt	100%	50%	22%	10%	4%
Monaco	100%	50%	22%	10%	4%
Sociedad	63%	31%	18%	8%	4%
RB Leipzig	37%	21%	14%	7%	4%
Rangers	89%	32%	15%	5%	2%
Dortmund	11%	7%	5%	3%	2%
Lazio	27%	12%	7%	3%	1%
Crvena Zvezda	100%	50%	13%	3%	< 1%
Olympiakos	28%	12%	6%	2%	< 1%
Braga	28%	8%	3%	1%	< 1%
Spartak Moskva	100%	50%	8%	1%	< 1%
Zenit	9%	4%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Galatasaray	100%	50%	7%	1%	< 1%
Dinamo Zagreb	9%	3%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Sheriff Tiraspol	72%	10%	2%	< 1%	< 1%

CL: Probabilities after week 1

 

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Man City	100%	68%	44%	26%
Liverpool	95%	60%	36%	20%
Bayern	82%	55%	34%	20%
Chelsea	76%	39%	19%	8%
Ajax	72%	34%	14%	6%
Paris SG	65%	32%	14%	6%
Real Madrid	35%	18%	9%	4%
Man United	56%	24%	9%	3%
Juventus	57%	19%	6%	2%
Atletico	44%	16%	5%	2%
Villarreal	43%	13%	3%	1%
Benfica	28%	7%	2%	< 1%
Inter	5%	3%	1%	< 1%
Salzburg	18%	5%	1%	< 1%
Lille	24%	6%	1%	< 1%
Sporting	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

PL: Newcastle renew the contract in 62% of simulations

 

Hot Teams
Wolves: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.5 more than expected
Newcastle: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 more than expected
Southampton: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 more than expected

Cold Teams
Watford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.7 less than expected
Everton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Brentford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.79%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	2.5%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	84%
League cup winners	100%	99.95%	99.10%
Sixth team	>99.99%	88%	2.5%
Seventh team	90%	9%	2.3%
Eighth team	12%	5%	1.8%

Simulated points for winner: 89 - 94
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 37

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
63	Man City	91.2	+64	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
54	Liverpool	83.4	+59	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
47	Chelsea	74.9	+44	< 1%	99.98%	99.89%	99.49%	97.7%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	97.9%
39	Arsenal	65.6	+16	< 1%	95%	88%	75%	51%	< 1%	8%	35%	51%
40	Man United	63.4	+13	< 1%	91%	80%	60%	29%	< 1%	12%	47%	32%
36	Tottenham	59.6	+1	< 1%	67%	46%	25%	9%	< 1%	21%	38%	9%
38	West Ham	58.5	+12	< 1%	64%	42%	21%	7%	< 1%	20%	32%	15%
37	Wolves	58.2	+4	< 1%	57%	35%	17%	5%	< 1%	23%	28%	5%
33	Brighton	51.8	-2	< 1%	13%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	5%	< 1%
27	Leicester	49.8	-4	< 1%	7%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.7%	21%	< 1%
29	Southampton	47.6	-8	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	2.3%	< 1%
27	Aston Villa	47.0	-6	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Leeds	43.1	-22	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Crystal Palace	43.0	-7	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
22	Everton	40.1	-17	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
24	Brentford	38.2	-21	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Newcastle	36.2	-29	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Burnley	34.9	-17	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Norwich	29.7	-48	89%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Watford	29.0	-33	88%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Man United	64%	20%	17%	Brighton
West Ham	64%	20%	17%	Newcastle
Arsenal	70%	17%	13%	Brentford
Aston Villa	62%	20%	18%	Watford
Liverpool	84%	10%	5%	Norwich
Southampton	50%	23%	27%	Everton
Brighton	56%	22%	22%	Burnley
Crystal Palace	26%	23%	51%	Chelsea
Man City	72%	16%	12%	Tottenham
Leeds	33%	24%	42%	Man United
Wolves	50%	23%	27%	Leicester

 

PL: Brentford five straight losses

Brentford have five straight losses and although they have met strong teams, theor probability for regulation has increased from 5% to 18%. Watford and Everton have even weaker results recently. Everton have only taken one point and regulation probability increased from 4% to 19%. Likewise Watford have 1 point in the last five matches (4.5 less than expected) and regulation probability has increased from 60% to 81%.

Hot Teams
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Southampton: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
Everton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Watford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Brentford: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.80%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	2.4%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	84%
League cup winners	100%	99.94%	98.8%
Sixth team	>99.99%	89%	2.5%
Seventh team	91%	10%	2.5%
Eighth team	12%	5%	1.6%

Simulated points for winner: 88 - 94
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 37

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
60	Man City	90.5	+62	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
51	Liverpool	82.4	+59	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.93%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%
47	Chelsea	74.9	+44	< 1%	99.98%	99.87%	99.31%	96.9%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	97.2%
39	Arsenal	65.6	+16	< 1%	95.1%	87%	71%	45%	< 1%	9%	41%	45%
39	Man United	64.6	+14	< 1%	94%	85%	65%	35%	< 1%	11%	46%	37%
36	Tottenham	61.4	+4	< 1%	79%	59%	34%	14%	< 1%	20%	46%	14%
37	West Ham	58.7	+11	< 1%	66%	41%	19%	6%	< 1%	23%	32%	14%
34	Wolves	56.1	+2	< 1%	40%	20%	8%	2.1%	< 1%	21%	17%	2.1%
26	Leicester	50.4	-4	< 1%	9%	3.6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	21%	< 1%
30	Brighton	50.2	-4	< 1%	9%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	2.9%	< 1%
27	Aston Villa	48.3	-6	< 1%	4.3%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	1.3%	< 1%
28	Southampton	47.2	-9	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	2.3%	< 1%
23	Leeds	44.3	-19	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Crystal Palace	43.2	-7	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
19	Everton	38.7	-20	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
23	Brentford	38.7	-21	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Burnley	35.7	-17	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Newcastle	34.7	-30	51%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Watford	30.3	-32	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Norwich	30.2	-45	86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Man United	67%	19%	15%	Southampton
Everton	46%	24%	30%	Leeds
Watford	36%	24%	40%	Brighton
Brentford	43%	24%	33%	Crystal Palace
Norwich	13%	17%	70%	Man City
Newcastle	41%	24%	34%	Aston Villa
Tottenham	53%	23%	24%	Wolves
Burnley	18%	20%	62%	Liverpool
Leicester	44%	24%	32%	West Ham
Man United	64%	20%	17%	Brighton

 

World Cup: Canada qualified for Qatar

Canada have clinched a spot in Qatar. Mexico are likely to follow as they only need a win in the final match against Honduras to be sure. The US finish with a difficult match away against Mexico followed by a home game against Panama, which might turn out to be deciding. Likely (88%) Costa Rica or Panama will finish 4th and get the playoff spot against a country from Oceania (likely New Zealand). The two most important matches next on 24 Mar are thus Costa Rica vs Canada and Panama vs Honduras, as detailed below.

NORTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		Playoff	1st-3rd	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Canada	11	25	29.1	(28-31)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Mexico	11	21	28	(27-30)	< 1%	99%	< 1%	100%
United States	11	21	25.5	(24-27)	11%	86%	9%	95%
Costa Rica	11	16	20.5	(19-22)	49%	9%	35%	44%
Panama	11	17	20.5	(19-22)	39%	6%	25%	32%
Jamaica	11	7	11.6	(10-13)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
El Salvador	11	9	11.1	(10-12)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Honduras	11	3	6.12	(4-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Most interesting matches on 24 Mar

Costa Rica vs Canada

- Costa Rica have 44.4% if they win; 26.6% if draw; 17.4% if lose.

- Panama have 37.9% if Canada win; 29.4% if draw; 18.3% if Costa Rica win.

- United States have 94.8% if Canada win; 94.2% if draw; 87.9% if Costa Rica win.

Panama vs Honduras

- Panama have 38.3% if they win; 22% if draw; 13.6% if lose.

- Costa Rica have 42.9% if Honduras win; 36.8% if draw; 23.3% if Panama win.

- United States have 93.8% if Honduras win; 91.5% if draw; 89% if Panama win.

 

World Cup: South America

Ecuador will most likely (99%) finish top and go to Qatar; they need another point to be certain that they're going to Qatar. They play Paraguay (away) and Argentina (home). The last direct spot are likely between Uruguay and Peru and much of that will be decided when they play in March.

Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		Playoff	1st-4th	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Brazil	15	39	46.3	(45-48)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Argentina	15	35	39.5	(38-41)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Ecuador	16	25	27.4	(26-29)	< 1%	99%	< 1%	99%
Uruguay	16	22	25.7	(25-28)	15%	79%	1%	80%
Peru	16	21	23.4	(22-24)	55%	20%	5%	24%
Colombia	16	17	20.9	(20-23)	15%	< 1%	1%	1%
Chile	16	19	20.6	(19-22)	13%	2%	1%	3%
Bolivia	16	15	15.6	(15-16)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Paraguay	16	13	15.5	(14-17)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Venezuela	16	10	12	(10-13)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Most interesting matches

Uruguay vs Peru in Group A

- Uruguay have 99% if they win; 80.9% if draw; 38.7% if lose.

- Peru have 94.2% if they win; 57.7% if draw; 33.7% if lose.

Peru vs Paraguay in Group A

- Peru have 62.5% if they win; 37% if draw; 24.5% if lose.

- Colombia have 18% if Paraguay win; 12.4% if draw; 0.7% if Peru win.

- Chile have 15.5% if Paraguay win; 12.7% if draw; 3.9% if Peru win.

 

World Cup: Japan won against Saudi and Oman drew Australia

 Iran and South Korea have clinched a spot in Qatar. UAE and Iraq fight over the third spot and playoff, where Iraq host UAE in the next match. Iraq need to win that plus that UAE lose points in their last match against Sout Korea.

Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Iran	8	22	25.7	(25-26)	< 1%	34%	66%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
South Korea	8	20	23.8	(23-26)	< 1%	66%	34%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
United Arab Emirates	8	9	10.3	(9-12)	62%	< 1%	< 1%	62%	9%	4%	4%
Iraq	8	5	8.87	(8-11)	30%	< 1%	< 1%	30%	12%	6%	6%
Lebanon	8	6	7.68	(6-9)	8%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Syria	8	2	4.52	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Oman and Australia drew, which means Oman are out and Australia are less likely to reach any of the two direct spots. They probably need to win both against Japan (home) and Saudi (away). Japan won against Saudi, so they can clinch qualification with a win against Australia (away) or a draw followed by a point against Vietnam (home).

Most interesting matches in March

Saudi Arabia vs Australia in Group B

- Saudi Arabia have 78% if  they lose; 100% otherwise.

- Australia have 72.2% if they win; 44.9% if draw; 41.9% if lose.

- Japan have 98.5% if Saudi Arabia win; 95.6% if draw; 87.8% if Australia win.

Australia vs Japan in Group B

- Japan have 100% if they win; 99% if draw; 85.3% if lose.

- Saudi Arabia have 100% if Japan win; 89.7% if draw; 84.6% if Australia win.

- Australia have 69.1% if they win; 50.3% if draw; 40.3% if lose.

Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Japan	8	18	21.8	(21-24)	12%	43%	46%	12%	10%	5%	93%
Saudi Arabia	8	19	21.7	(20-23)	14%	43%	43%	14%	9%	4%	91%
Australia	8	15	18.1	(16-19)	75%	14%	11%	75%	60%	30%	55%
Oman	8	8	11.1	(10-12)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
China	8	5	7.29	(6-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Vietnam	8	3	4.73	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%