PL: Bournemouth in the CL race (19%)

Bournemouth importantly won against Newcastle in the CL race and have another important match in the CL race when they host Nottingham Forest on Saturday. Another important match in the CL race is City hosting Chelsea.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
50	Liverpool	85.9	+52	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
44	Arsenal	77.1	+40	< 1%	99.96%	99.84%	99.42%	98.1%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	99.42%
38	Man City	68.5	+29	< 1%	96.5%	92%	83%	68%	< 1%	1.9%	13%	83%
40	Chelsea	66.3	+24	< 1%	92%	83%	69%	49%	< 1%	3.1%	26%	68%
44	Forest	65.5	+10	< 1%	87%	75%	58%	38%	< 1%	7%	28%	56%
38	Newcastle	63.6	+17	< 1%	80%	65%	46%	26%	< 1%	13%	34%	44%
37	Bournemouth	60.2	+11	< 1%	55%	36%	20%	9%	< 1%	16%	32%	19%
36	Aston Villa	59.5	+1	< 1%	46%	29%	16%	7%	< 1%	15%	28%	17%
34	Brighton	55.8	+4	< 1%	22%	12%	5%	2.0%	< 1%	13%	15%	5%
33	Fulham	54.0	+2	< 1%	13%	6%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	10%	2.5%
29	Crystal Palace	50.3	-4	< 1%	3.2%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	5%	< 1%
24	Tottenham	48.2	+13	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	3.3%	11%
28	Brentford	48.2	-2	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	1.3%	< 1%
26	Man United	46.6	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	8%
26	West Ham	46.1	-20	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Everton	39.3	-17	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Wolves	34.0	-26	33%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Ipswich	30.1	-38	75%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Leicester	28.5	-38	84%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	Southampton	18.8	-52	99.65%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for CL race
Bournemouth vs Forest (5.4%)	Home Win (50%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Forest	48%	57%	71%
Bournemouth	26%	15%	10%
Man City vs Chelsea (4.4%)	Home Win (58%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
Chelsea	62%	70%	82%
Man City	88%	79%	72%
Southampton vs Newcastle (2.8%)	Home Win (21%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (57%)
Newcastle	31%	38%	52%
Forest	60%	58%	55%
Chelsea	71%	69%	66%

 Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Liverpool	86%	10%	4.7%	Ipswich
Wolves	19%	21%	60%	Arsenal
Southampton	21%	22%	57%	Newcastle
Brighton	54%	22%	24%	Everton
Bournemouth	50%	23%	27%	Forest
Man City	58%	21%	21%	Chelsea
Tottenham	68%	18%	14%	Leicester
Crystal Palace	52%	23%	26%	Brentford
Aston Villa	57%	22%	22%	West Ham
Fulham	51%	23%	26%	Man United
Everton	19%	21%	60%	Liverpool

Most likely combo of teams in CL

18%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
12%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
8%	Arsenal, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
4.7%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
4.0%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Newcastle
3.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.8%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
2.7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
2.1%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

59%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
20%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
13%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
3.8%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
2.4%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton

PL: Newcastles vs Bournmout in the CL race

A couple of matches interesting for the CL race this weekend. Liverpools gap down to Arsenal has decreased to 6.5 in average points.

Hot Teams
Forest: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 6.8 more than expected
Newcastle: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 6.7 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Aston Villa: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected
Bournemouth: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
Chelsea: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 5.8 less than expected
Tottenham: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.4 less than expected
Leicester: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Everton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected
Man United: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
47	Liverpool	84.9	+51	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	82%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
43	Arsenal	78.4	+42	< 1%	99.98%	99.92%	99.67%	98.9%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	99.66%
35	Man City	67.7	+24	< 1%	95.8%	90%	79%	62%	< 1%	2.3%	16%	79%
37	Chelsea	65.6	+24	< 1%	92%	82%	66%	45%	< 1%	3.3%	29%	65%
38	Newcastle	65.5	+21	< 1%	91%	81%	65%	44%	< 1%	7%	26%	63%
41	Forest	64.8	+11	< 1%	87%	74%	55%	35%	< 1%	7%	30%	54%
35	Aston Villa	59.1	-0	< 1%	49%	30%	16%	7%	< 1%	15%	31%	17%
34	Bournemouth	58.1	+8	< 1%	44%	25%	13%	5%	< 1%	17%	28%	12%
31	Brighton	53.9	+2	< 1%	17%	8%	3.3%	1.2%	< 1%	11%	12%	3.2%
30	Fulham	52.5	+0	< 1%	11%	5.0%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	9%	1.8%
24	Tottenham	49.5	+14	< 1%	4.7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	5%	12%
28	Brentford	49.0	-1	< 1%	3.7%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%	2.7%	< 1%
26	Crystal Palace	48.5	-6	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	4.9%	< 1%
26	Man United	48.3	-5	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	3.2%	8%
26	West Ham	47.7	-18	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	1.2%	< 1%
17	Everton	37.8	-18	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Wolves	34.7	-25	34%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Ipswich	30.8	-33	72%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Leicester	29.7	-37	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	Southampton	19.3	-52	99.58%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Important matches for CL race
Newcastle vs Bournemouth (4.6%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (22%)
Newcastle	71%	58%	49%
Bournemouth	8%	13%	22%
Chelsea vs Wolves (2.2%)	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Chelsea	69%	57%	50%
Forest	52%	56%	58%
Newcastle	62%	65%	67%
Forest vs Southampton (2.1%)	Home Win (70%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (13%)
Forest	58%	45%	39%
Newcastle	62%	65%	67%
Chelsea	63%	67%	68%

 

 

 

 

PL: Which English teams will win anything this spring?

Below are the updated probabilities for teams to win titles later this spring. Liverpool have a chance on all four tournaments and a decent (>1%) chance to win all of them. Chelsea have a great chance in Conference League, while Newcastle greatest chance is in the League Cup. Arsenal have 14% to win the league, less than 10% to turn it around in the league cup, and their greatest chance is in CL. Tottenham have decent chance in both the League Cup and Europa League, while United's chance is in the Europa League.

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Liverpool	96.7%	70%	27%	3.2%	44%	8%	3.2%
Arsenal	32%	4.0%	< 1%
Man City	23%	1.0%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	37%	1.4%	< 1%		< 1%
Forest	1.9%	< 1%			< 1%
Newcastle	37%	2.0%	< 1%		< 1%
Bournemouth	1.7%	< 1%			< 1%
Aston Villa	6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Fulham	1.5%	< 1%			< 1%
Brighton	< 1%
Tottenham	27%	2.3%	< 1%
Man United	10%	< 1%
Crystal Palace	3.1%
Everton	< 1%
Wolves	< 1%
Ipswich	< 1%
Leicester	< 1%
Southampton	< 1%

 

PL: Forest and magpies hottest in the league.

 

Hot Teams
Forest: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 8.1 more than expected
Newcastle: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 6.5 more than expected
Ipswich: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.3 more than expected
Bournemouth: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 1.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Chelsea: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Leicester: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Tottenham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Man City: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
46	Liverpool	85.7	+51	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
40	Arsenal	77.6	+42	< 1%	99.97%	99.87%	99.47%	98.2%	14%	< 1%	< 1%	99.46%
34	Man City	68.4	+25	< 1%	96.9%	93%	83%	67%	< 1%	2.0%	14%	83%
36	Chelsea	66.5	+25	< 1%	94%	87%	73%	53%	< 1%	2.5%	24%	72%
40	Forest	64.7	+10	< 1%	87%	75%	55%	34%	< 1%	7%	32%	54%
35	Newcastle	64.7	+19	< 1%	89%	78%	59%	37%	< 1%	7%	30%	57%
33	Bournemouth	57.9	+7	< 1%	45%	26%	13%	5%	< 1%	18%	30%	12%
32	Aston Villa	57.4	-1	< 1%	39%	22%	11%	4.4%	< 1%	17%	26%	12%
30	Fulham	53.7	+1	< 1%	18%	9%	3.5%	1.2%	< 1%	13%	15%	3.3%
28	Brighton	52.4	+0	< 1%	13%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	10%	2.1%
24	Tottenham	50.1	+14	< 1%	7%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	7%	12%
27	Brentford	49.1	-2	< 1%	4.7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	4.4%	< 1%
23	Man United	47.6	-5	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	2.3%	8%
23	Crystal Palace	46.9	-8	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	4.2%	< 1%
23	West Ham	46.3	-18	1.3%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	1.1%	< 1%
17	Everton	39.2	-17	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Wolves	35.3	-23	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Ipswich	32.0	-31	69%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Leicester	31.0	-35	76%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	Southampton	19.9	-52	99.60%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Liverpool	95.8%	64%	21%	2.3%	29%	5%	2.3%
Arsenal	64%	21%	3.1%	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%
Man City	18%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	38%	1.9%	< 1%		< 1%
Forest	3.7%	< 1%			< 1%
Newcastle	14%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Bournemouth	1.6%	< 1%			< 1%
Aston Villa	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Fulham	2.2%	< 1%			< 1%
Brighton	< 1%
Tottenham	20%	1.3%	< 1%
Brentford	< 1%
Man United	9%	< 1%
Crystal Palace	2.9%
West Ham	< 1%
Everton	< 1%
Wolves	< 1%
Ipswich	< 1%
Leicester	< 1%
Southampton	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Everton vs Liverpool (2%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (60%)
Liverpool	79%	83%	89%
Arsenal	20%	16%	11%

	Liverpool			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
97	1.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
96	2.3%	1.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
95	3.9%	1.5%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	6%	2.1%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	98%
93	9%	3.1%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	13%	3.8%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	95%
91	18%	4.8%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	88%
90	23%	6%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	88%
89	30%	6%	99.3%	1.1%	< 1%	79%
88	37%	7%	98.7%	1.9%	< 1%	72%
87	45%	8%	97.5%	3.4%	1.5%	65%
86	52%	8%	95.7%	5%	2.1%	56%
85	60%	8%	93%	8%	2.8%	48%
84	67%	7%	89%	12%	3.9%	39%
83	74%	7%	84%	17%	4.7%	32%
82	79%	6%	78%	23%	6%	25%
81	84%	4.9%	72%	29%	7%	19%
80	88%	4.1%	63%	36%	7%	14%
79	92%	3.2%	55%	44%	8%	10%
78	94%	2.5%	46%	52%	8%	7%
77	96.0%	1.9%	37%	60%	8%	4.3%
76	97.4%	1.3%	27%	67%	7%	2.7%
75	98.3%	< 1%	19%	74%	7%	1.5%
74	98.9%	< 1%	13%	79%	6%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	93%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	78%
League cup winners	100%	93%	90%
Sixth team	99.92%	98.9%	< 1%
Seventh team	98.0%	81%	1.1%
Eighth team	79%	6%	1.5%

Simulated points for winner: 83 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 38

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Everton	19%	21%	60%	Liverpool

Most likely combo of teams in CL

19%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
17%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
10%	Arsenal, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Newcastle
2.9%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
2.5%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.4%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.0%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Newcastle
1.8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

47%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
20%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
15%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
7%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
5%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
1.9%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves

 

PL: Liverpool in pole position half through the season

After half the season Liverpool are in pole position and win the league in 87% of the simulations and on average their gap is almost 9 points. Arsenal is the only challenger on the title  winning the league in 13% of the simulations. Behind the top duo, Man City and Chelsea are the main contenders for the CL slots (83% and 78%, respectively) challenged by Newcastle and Forest (50% and 47%, respectively). Tottenham and Man United qualify for the CL in a substantial fraction of the simulations, but their path is more likely coming through winning the Europa League. In the bottom the three promoted teams are predicted to return back to the Championship and they do so in more than half of the simulations. Both Leicester and Ipswich manage to extend the PL contract in 25% of the time, whereas Southampton do so in about one of 300 simulations.

Hot Teams
Forest: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 8.3 more than expected
Newcastle: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Ipswich: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 more than expected
Bournemouth: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Man City: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Man United: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Tottenham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected
Leicester: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Brighton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
45	Liverpool	87.1	+53	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.99%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
39	Arsenal	78.4	+43	< 1%	99.98%	99.92%	99.70%	98.9%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	99.70%
31	Man City	67.7	+23	< 1%	96.1%	92%	83%	67%	< 1%	2.1%	13%	83%
35	Chelsea	66.9	+25	< 1%	95.2%	90%	79%	62%	< 1%	2.0%	18%	78%
37	Forest	63.0	+7	< 1%	81%	67%	48%	28%	< 1%	9%	32%	47%
32	Newcastle	62.9	+18	< 1%	83%	70%	51%	30%	< 1%	9%	31%	50%
30	Bournemouth	56.8	+6	< 1%	41%	25%	13%	5%	< 1%	16%	26%	12%
29	Aston Villa	56.6	-1	< 1%	37%	22%	12%	4.7%	< 1%	15%	24%	12%
29	Fulham	54.9	+2	< 1%	28%	15%	7%	2.8%	< 1%	14%	20%	7%
27	Brighton	52.4	-1	< 1%	15%	8%	3.2%	1.1%	< 1%	10%	11%	3.1%
24	Tottenham	51.7	+15	< 1%	14%	7%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	11%	13%
24	Brentford	47.7	-6	< 1%	3.5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	3.5%	< 1%
22	Crystal Palace	47.3	-8	< 1%	2.6%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	4.9%	< 1%
22	Man United	47.0	-7	1.1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	2.2%	8%
23	West Ham	46.8	-17	1.4%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	1.7%	< 1%
17	Everton	40.0	-17	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Wolves	36.7	-20	31%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Leicester	31.6	-35	76%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Ipswich	31.6	-32	76%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	Southampton	21.1	-47	99.36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 84 - 91
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 69
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 38

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Tottenham	44%	24%	32%	Newcastle
Aston Villa	68%	18%	14%	Leicester
Man City	71%	17%	12%	West Ham
Southampton	31%	24%	45%	Brentford
Crystal Palace	37%	24%	39%	Chelsea
Bournemouth	56%	22%	22%	Everton
Brighton	25%	23%	53%	Arsenal
Fulham	67%	18%	15%	Ipswich
Liverpool	75%	15%	10%	Man United
Wolves	40%	24%	36%	Forest
Everton	19%	21%	60%	Liverpool

Most likely combo of teams in CL

19%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
17%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
6%	Arsenal, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
4.8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Newcastle
3.7%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.4%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
2.5%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.1%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Liverpool, Man City
2.1%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

53%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
14%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
14%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
6%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
6%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
1.3%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	93%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	78%
League cup winners	100%	93%	89%
Sixth team	99.92%	98.9%	1.2%
Seventh team	98.0%	81%	1.4%
Eighth team	79%	7%	1.7%