World Cup

Last round in North and Central America. Group B is already decided and Group C virtually closed, in which Guatemala need a miracle to catch up 12 goals on United States. Group A is slightly open. Canada need to win, while Honduras lose against Mexico, and Canada need to catch up five goals.

CONCACAF

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 5	Playoff	World Cup
Mexico	5	+12	15	21.0	100%	99%	99%
Honduras	5	0	7	7.8	80.4%	15.1%	7.8%
--------------------
Canada	5	-5	4	6.2	19.6%	3.6%	1.8%
El Salvador	5	-7	2	2.8	-

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 5	Playoff	World Cup
Costa Rica	5	+6	13	16.9	100%	93.0%	88.3%
Panama	5	+4	10	12.6	100%	67.3%	50.3%
--------------------
Jamaica	5	-6	4	5.9	-
Haiti	5	-4	1	1.8	-

Group C	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 5	Playoff	World Cup
Trinidad and T	5	+8	11	9.5	100%	31.6%	18.8%
United States	5	+13	10	16.0	99.99%	90.2%	83.8%
--------------------
Guatemala	5	+1	7	9.6	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
Saint Vincent	5	-22	0	0.3	-

CONMEBOL

Group	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Argentina	7	+3	14	37.9	99%	99%
Uruguay	7	+7	13	30.5	81.5%	80.0%
Colombia	7	+3	13	31.0	83.0%	82.0%
Ecuador	7	+2	13	27.2	46.0%	44.0%
--------------------
Brazil	7	+6	12	31.8	88.5%	87.9%
========
Paraguay	7	+2	12	22.3	9.3%	8.1%
Chile	7	+1	10	32.1	90.7%	90.3%
Bolivia	7	-4	6	11.4	0.01%	0.01%
Peru	7	-8	4	18.1	1.7%	1.5%
Venezuela	7	-12	1	10.0	0.01%	0.00%

UEFA

Important Matches

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
70%	51%	37%	Croatia	-	Turkey	32.7%	46%	65%	81.7042
38.6%	22.6%	13.7%	Serbia	-	Ireland	26.6%	39%	55%	75.2519
60%	42%	31.7%	Switzerland	-	Portugal	79%	89%	96%	70.7083
48%	31%	20.8%	Slovakia	-	England	74%	85%	94%	68.8025
18.0%	8.1%	3.7%	Sweden	-	Netherlands	54%	66%	79%	57.4552

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Netherlands	0	0	0	21.4	82.3%	68.7%
--------------------
France	0	0	0	23.0	91.6%	84.6%
========
Sweden	0	0	0	15.7	15.8%	8.8%
Bulgaria	0	0	0	11.1	1.6%	0.55%
Belarus	0	0	0	11.1	1.6%	0.55%
Luxembourg	0	0	0	2.9	0.00%	0.00%

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Portugal	0	0	0	24.8	94.3%	88.9%
--------------------
Switzerland	0	0	0	21.0	67.1%	43.3%
========
Hungary	0	0	0	18.9	34.7%	17.9%
Latvia	0	0	0	12.7	1.7%	0.33%
Faroe Islands	0	0	0	6.8	0.01%	0.00%
Andorra	0	0	0	2.1	-

Group C	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Germany	0	0	0	25.8	99%	97.1%
--------------------
Norway	0	0	0	15.8	19.5%	6.1%
========
Czechia	0	0	0	18.1	45.6%	19.8%
Northern Irela	0	0	0	16.0	20.6%	6.6%
Azerbaijan	0	0	0	9.4	0.38%	0.03%
San Marino	0	0	0	1.0	-

Group D	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Wales	0	0	0	18.7	58.5%	46.1%
--------------------
Austria	0	0	0	16.4	34.1%	22.8%
========
Serbia	0	0	0	16.9	39.1%	27.1%
Ireland	0	0	0	18.0	51.2%	38.3%
Georgia	0	0	0	8.9	1.1%	0.42%
Moldova	0	0	0	5.2	0.06%	0.02%

Group E	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Romania	0	0	0	17.0	42.7%	27.5%
--------------------
Denmark	0	0	0	17.9	53.1%	36.5%
========
Poland	0	0	0	20.5	78.7%	67.4%
Kazakhstan	0	0	0	7.1	0.40%	0.10%
Armenia	0	0	0	10.3	3.0%	1.1%
Montenegro	0	0	0	11.2	4.9%	2.0%

Group F	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
England	0	0	0	23.1	91.4%	85.2%
--------------------
Slovenia	0	0	0	13.9	10.4%	4.1%
========
Slovakia	0	0	0	18.5	52.5%	32.0%
Scotland	0	0	0	17.0	33.3%	17.7%
Lithuania	0	0	0	8.8	0.52%	0.11%
Malta	0	0	0	3.6	0.00%	0.00%

Group G	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Italy	0	0	0	23.4	94.3%	83.2%
--------------------
Spain	0	0	0	23.2	93.7%	81.4%
========
Israel	0	0	0	12.6	2.4%	0.74%
Albania	0	0	0	14.4	6.1%	2.4%
Macedonia	0	0	0	8.7	0.16%	0.03%
Liechtenstein	0	0	0	3.2	0.00%	0.00%

Group H	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Belgium	0	0	0	24.0	94.9%	86.8%
--------------------
Greece	0	0	0	16.1	19.4%	7.4%
========
Bosnia and Her	0	0	0	20.5	74.5%	45.9%
Cyprus	0	0	0	10.2	0.93%	0.16%
Estonia	0	0	0	11.7	2.3%	0.48%
Gibraltar	0	0	0	2.8	0.00%	0.00%

Group I	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Croatia	0	0	0	19.4	67.5%	57.6%
--------------------
Turkey	0	0	0	18.2	55.2%	43.6%
========
Iceland	0	0	0	15.6	28.4%	19.1%
Ukraine	0	0	0	15.5	27.2%	18.1%
Finland	0	0	0	10.1	2.6%	1.2%
Kosovo	0	0	0	5.3	0.08%	0.02%

CAF

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Tunisia	0	0	0	9.1	33.5%
========
Libya	0	0	0	7.1	14.7%
Democratic Rep	0	0	0	8.6	27.2%
Guinea	0	0	0	8.3	24.5%

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Algeria	0	0	0	10.0	39.4%
========
Nigeria	0	0	0	9.2	29.1%
Zambia	0	0	0	5.1	3.9%
Cameroon	0	0	0	9.1	27.7%

Group C	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Mali	0	0	0	8.0	14.8%
========
Ivory Coast	0	0	0	11.9	65.1%
Gabon	0	0	0	5.3	3.6%
Morocco	0	0	0	8.2	16.4%

Group D	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Senegal	0	0	0	11.2	55.7%
========
South Africa	0	0	0	9.3	28.2%
Burkina Faso	0	0	0	5.9	5.9%
Cape Verde	0	0	0	7.0	10.1%

Group E	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Uganda	0	0	0	6.9	10.1%
========
Congo	0	0	0	5.8	5.7%
Egypt	0	0	0	10.4	43.9%
Ghana	0	0	0	10.2	40.3%

AFC

Important Matches

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
59%	40%	28.4%	United Arab Emirates	-	Australia	66%	78%	89%	75.6107
18.1%	8.6%	4.6%	China	-	Iran	66%	76%	86%	50.8144

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 4	Playoff	World Cup
Iran	1	+2	3	18.4	88.9%	82.6%	77.4%
South Korea	1	+1	3	20.2	95.1%	92.3%	89.6%
--------------------
Uzbekistan	1	+1	3	15.5	68.1%	53.4%	43.7%
========
China	1	-1	0	11.0	22.4%	13.8%	9.7%
Syria	1	-1	0	8.8	9.1%	4.7%	3.0%
Qatar	1	-2	0	10.2	16.3%	9.4%	6.3%

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 4	Playoff	World Cup
Australia	1	+2	3	19.0	89.8%	83.0%	79.0%
United Arab Em	1	+1	3	15.8	66.3%	48.2%	41.4%
--------------------
Saudi Arabia	1	+1	3	13.5	39.5%	25.5%	20.8%
========
Japan	1	-1	0	17.7	84.9%	77.6%	72.8%
Thailand	1	-1	0	8.1	5.6%	2.4%	1.8%
Iraq	1	-2	0	10.1	13.8%	7.1%	5.3%

OFC

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Final	Playoff	World Cup
Fiji	0	0	0	3.7	8.3%	4.8%	0.05%
========
New Caledonia	0	0	0	4.6	14.0%	9.3%	0.16%
New Zealand	0	0	0	8.5	77.7%	70.3%	6.6%

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Final	Playoff	World Cup
Tahiti	0	0	0	6.6	49.0%	9.3%	0.09%
========
Solomon Island	0	0	0	4.9	24.2%	2.8%	0.01%
Papua New Guin	0	0	0	5.1	26.9%	3.4%	0.02%

World Cup Qualifications

With coming world cup qualification matches the next few day, I had a look at the standing of the qualification so far. The tables below show the standing with matches played, goal difference, points, average final points in the simulations, followed by the estimated chance the team has to reach each round (or better).


CONCACAF

Here they have already reach round 4, which will be completed in September. From the three groups the top two teams will continue to the next round, in which these six team will play a double round robin in a single group. At the moment, only Mexico has clinched a spot in in round 5.

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 5	Playoff	World Cup
Mexico	4	+10	12	17.1	100%	99%	99%
Honduras	4	-1	4	6.0	48.0%	10.3%	5.5%
--------------------
Canada	4	-4	4	7.1	49.3%	10.3%	5.3%
El Salvador	4	-5	2	3.2	2.7%	0.21%	0.07%

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 5	Playoff	World Cup
Costa Rica	4	+5	10	14.1	99.9%	93.9%	89.8%
Panama	4	+2	7	9.8	86.5%	60.0%	45.8%
--------------------
Jamaica	4	-4	4	6.7	13.2%	5.3%	3.0%
Haiti	4	-3	1	2.6	0.33%	0.07%	0.03%

Group C	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 5	Playoff	World Cup
Trinidad and T	4	+8	10	12.5	84.8%	29.6%	18.0%
United States	4	+7	7	12.0	95.3%	87.0%	81.4%
--------------------
Guatemala	4	+1	6	9.5	19.9%	4.0%	2.0%
Saint Vincent	4	-16	0	0.5	-

SOUTH AMERICA

A third of the matches have been played. Four teams qualify directly and a 5th team plays a playoff against a team from Oceania.

Group	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Uruguay	6	+8	13	31.0	83.0%	81.6%
Ecuador	6	+5	13	28.6	59.3%	57.2%
Argentina	6	+2	11	37.2	99%	99%
Chile	6	+2	10	34.2	95.3%	95.1%
--------------------
Colombia	6	+1	10	30.5	77.9%	76.8%
========
Brazil	6	+3	9	30.2	77.0%	76.2%
Paraguay	6	+1	9	20.0	4.0%	3.4%
Peru	6	-6	4	20.0	4.7%	4.3%
Bolivia	6	-6	3	9.3	0.00%	0.00%
Venezuela	6	-10	1	10.4	0.01%	0.01%

EUROPE

The nine group winners are directly qualified, and the eight best runner-ups play playoff.

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
France	0	0	0	23.0	91.6%	84.6%
--------------------
Netherlands	0	0	0	21.4	82.4%	68.7%
========
Sweden	0	0	0	15.7	15.8%	8.8%
Bulgaria	0	0	0	11.1	1.6%	0.55%
Belarus	0	0	0	11.1	1.6%	0.55%
Luxembourg	0	0	0	2.9	0.00%	0.00%

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Portugal	0	0	0	24.8	94.4%	88.9%
--------------------
Switzerland	0	0	0	21.0	67.1%	43.3%
========
Hungary	0	0	0	18.9	34.6%	17.9%
Latvia	0	0	0	12.7	1.6%	0.32%
Faroe Islands	0	0	0	6.8	0.01%	0.00%
Andorra	0	0	0	2.1	-

Group C	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Germany	0	0	0	25.8	99%	97.1%
--------------------
Northern Irela	0	0	0	16.0	20.7%	6.7%
========
Czechia	0	0	0	18.1	45.6%	19.7%
Norway	0	0	0	15.8	19.5%	6.2%
Azerbaijan	0	0	0	9.4	0.38%	0.04%
San Marino	0	0	0	1.0	-

Group D	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Serbia	0	0	0	16.9	39.0%	27.0%
--------------------
Ireland	0	0	0	18.0	51.1%	38.4%
========
Austria	0	0	0	16.5	34.2%	22.9%
Wales	0	0	0	18.7	58.5%	46.1%
Georgia	0	0	0	8.9	1.1%	0.44%
Moldova	0	0	0	5.2	0.06%	0.02%

Group E	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Poland	0	0	0	20.5	78.6%	67.3%
--------------------
Romania	0	0	0	17.0	42.7%	27.5%
========
Montenegro	0	0	0	11.2	4.9%	2.0%
Armenia	0	0	0	10.3	3.1%	1.2%
Denmark	0	0	0	17.9	53.1%	36.5%
Kazakhstan	0	0	0	7.1	0.39%	0.11%

Group F	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
England	0	0	0	23.1	91.5%	85.2%
--------------------
Slovakia	0	0	0	18.5	52.4%	31.9%
========
Scotland	0	0	0	17.0	33.3%	17.7%
Slovenia	0	0	0	13.9	10.5%	4.1%
Lithuania	0	0	0	8.8	0.51%	0.10%
Malta	0	0	0	3.6	0.00%	0.00%

Group G	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Italy	0	0	0	23.4	94.3%	83.3%
--------------------
Spain	0	0	0	23.2	93.6%	81.4%
========
Albania	0	0	0	14.4	6.2%	2.4%
Israel	0	0	0	12.6	2.4%	0.72%
Macedonia	0	0	0	8.7	0.16%	0.02%
Liechtenstein	0	0	0	3.2	-

Group H	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Bosnia and Her	0	0	0	20.5	74.3%	45.9%
--------------------
Belgium	0	0	0	24.0	94.9%	86.8%
========
Greece	0	0	0	16.1	19.5%	7.5%
Estonia	0	0	0	11.7	2.3%	0.48%
Cyprus	0	0	0	10.2	0.93%	0.16%
Gibraltar	0	0	0	2.8	0.00%	0.00%

Group I	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Iceland	0	0	0	15.6	28.4%	19.1%
--------------------
Turkey	0	0	0	18.2	55.2%	43.5%
========
Croatia	0	0	0	19.4	67.5%	57.6%
Ukraine	0	0	0	15.5	27.1%	18.2%
Kosovo	0	0	0	5.3	0.08%	0.02%
Finland	0	0	0	10.1	2.6%	1.2%

AFRICA

Five groups and each group winner qualifies for the world cup.

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Guinea	0	0	0	8.3	24.6%
========
Democratic Rep	0	0	0	8.6	27.2%
Libya	0	0	0	7.1	14.7%
Tunisia	0	0	0	9.1	33.5%

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Cameroon	0	0	0	9.1	27.8%
========
Nigeria	0	0	0	9.2	29.0%
Algeria	0	0	0	10.0	39.3%
Zambia	0	0	0	5.1	3.9%

Group C	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Ivory Coast	0	0	0	11.9	65.0%
========
Morocco	0	0	0	8.2	16.5%
Gabon	0	0	0	5.3	3.7%
Mali	0	0	0	8.0	14.8%

Group D	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Burkina Faso	0	0	0	5.9	5.9%
========
Senegal	0	0	0	11.2	55.8%
South Africa	0	0	0	9.3	28.2%
Cape Verde	0	0	0	7.0	10.1%

Group E	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Egypt	0	0	0	10.4	43.7%
========
Uganda	0	0	0	6.9	10.2%
Ghana	0	0	0	10.2	40.4%
Congo	0	0	0	5.8	5.7%

ASIA

Asia has 4 1/2 teams in the world cup, which means top 2 in both groups get a spot in the world cup and the teams that finish third compete (in Round 4) about a spot in the intercontinental playoff.

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 4	Playoff	World Cup
South Korea	0	0	0	19.6	92.8%	90.3%	87.7%
Uzbekistan	0	0	0	14.6	60.5%	49.4%	40.9%
--------------------
Iran	0	0	0	17.6	84.3%	78.9%	73.7%
========
China	0	0	0	11.5	27.1%	18.4%	13.6%
Qatar	0	0	0	10.8	21.8%	14.3%	10.3%
Syria	0	0	0	9.5	13.5%	8.0%	5.5%

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 4	Playoff	World Cup
United Arab Em	0	0	0	13.3	47.4%	30.4%	24.0%
Saudi Arabia	0	0	0	12.5	38.3%	23.0%	17.8%
--------------------
Japan	0	0	0	20.0	94.2%	90.6%	88.2%
========
Australia	0	0	0	18.4	88.4%	81.6%	77.5%
Thailand	0	0	0	8.9	10.8%	4.6%	3.3%
Iraq	0	0	0	10.6	20.9%	10.6%	7.8%

OCEANIA

Group winners play against each other in a final, and the winner of the final plays against 5th team from South America.

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Final	Playoff	World Cup
New Zealand	0	0	0	8.5	77.7%	70.3%	6.3%
========
New Caledonia	0	0	0	4.6	14.0%	9.4%	0.15%
Fiji	0	0	0	3.7	8.2%	4.8%	0.05%

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Final	Playoff	World Cup
Tahiti	0	0	0	6.5	49.0%	9.3%	0.08%
========
Papua New Guin	0	0	0	5.1	26.8%	3.4%	0.02%
Solomon Island	0	0	0	4.9	24.2%	2.8%	0.01%

Euro: Round of 16

Round of 16 gave us a couple of penalty shootouts and one or two upsets. Most notably, Iceland's triumph against England. Other than that most results were more or less expected, except perhaps that reigning champs, Spain, were kicked out by Italy.

Looking ahead the table below shows estimated chance for each team to reach semi-final, final, and win the tournament. The Icelandic Saga continues and based on this model they would win one of nine matches against France, Wales would win one of five quarter-finals against Belgium, and Italy and Poland would win roughly one of three matches afgainst Germany and Portugal, respectively.

Country	Semi	Final	Champions
France	89	54	39
Germany	69	34	23
Belgium	79	45	17
Portugal	67	36	13
Italy	31	10	5
Poland	33	13	2.8
Wales	21	5.6	0.76
Iceland	11	1.9	0.5

euro: Group Stage

With the last groups completed we can summarize the group stage. By comparing with estimated probabilities before the group started, we can list the greatest disappointments in the group stage.

Disappointments

Country	Chance Before Tournament
Ukraine	77%
Austria	73%
Russia	66%
Romania	66%
Turkey	65%
Sweden	53%
Czechia	49%
Albania	33%

Likewise by looking at the countries that did go through to the next round we can list the positive surprises.

Positive Surprises

Country	Last 16	QF	SF	F	Champions
Northern Ireland	29	7	1.7	0.35	0.053
Wales	41	12	2.7	0.59	0.11
Iceland	49	14	3.5	0.82	0.15
Ireland	53	20	7.3	2.4	0.65
Hungary	54	18	4.6	1.2	0.26
Croatia	63	29	12	4.8	1.6
Poland	64	26	10	3.4	0.92
Slovakia	66	29	9.6	3.1	0.9
Switzerland	68	28	11	3.7	0.99
Italy	78	40	20	8.9	3.6
Belgium	85	49	26	13	5.9
Spain	91	63	41	25	13
Portugal	91	53	27	13	5.7
England	94	65	39	22	11
Germany	96	74	50	31	19
France	98	76	58	39	27

Notably, not many surprises among the countries pushing through. Most countries had 50% chance or more basically because two thirds of the countries survive the group stage. As we would call head a surprise when flipping a coin we see not much of surprises here. With Northern Ireland as possible with exception, who were predicted to go through only three out of ten times.

Here are the estimated chances at this point in the:

Country	Last 16	QF	SF	F	Champions
France	100	83	56	34	25
Germany	100	79	47	25	18
Belgium	100	76	61	37	14
England	100	82	36	17	11
Spain	100	64	33	16	11
Portugal	100	61	40	24	9
Croatia	100	39	22	11	3.1
Italy	100	36	14	4.7	2.5
Switzerland	100	50	19	8.3	1.9
Poland	100	50	19	8.1	1.9
Hungary	100	24	14	4.6	0.78
Wales	100	54	14	4.2	0.61
Slovakia	100	21	5.9	1.4	0.57
Ireland	100	17	5.5	1.4	0.54
Northern Ireland	100	46	11	2.8	0.35
Iceland	100	18	2.8	0.47	0.14

Euro: do-or-die beween Iceland and Austria

Germany and Poland clinched to places in the round of 16 as well as Spain and Croatia. Spain lost against Croatia and therefore also lost the winning spot in Group C, which means they end up playing Italy in next round.

Today Group E and F are completed. In group E Sweden and Ireland  need to win to survive, whereas Belgium only need avoid a losing by more than three goals. In group F is even easier. Iceland and Portugal need at least draws in their matches, and Austria need to win against Iceland. A pure do-or-die between Austria and Iceland in other words.

Albania and Turkey are currently 4th and 3rd best third-placed and need to rely on results in group E and F. Basically they need to hope for that Portugal lose against Hungary, Ireland do not win against Italy, and Turkey can also be helped by Sweden not winning against Belgium. See details below.

Group A	p	pts	+/-	Chance
France	3	7	4-1	100%
Switzerland	3	5	2-1	100%
Albania	3	3	1-3	10%
Romania	3	1	2-4	0%

Albania are eliminated if

Portugal draw (or win) against Hungary or

Ireland win against Italy

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
France	Northern Ireland (66%)	England (77%)
	Ireland (21%)	Hungary (9.2%)
	Belgium (13%)	Austria (5.4%)
Switzerland	Poland (100%)	Croatia (56%)
		Austria (14%)
		Portugal (11%)
Albania	Germany (100%)	Spain (64%)
		Italy (36%)

Group B	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Wales	3	6	6-3	100%
England	3	5	3-2	100%
Slovakia	3	4	3-3	100%
Russia	3	1	2-6	0%

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Wales	Turkey (66%)	Belgium (45%)
	Northern Ireland (34%)	Portugal (31%)
		Sweden (12%)
England	Hungary (47%)	France (86%)
	Iceland (25%)	Northern Ireland (5.9%)
	Austria (19%)	Belgium (4.2%)
Slovakia	Germany (90%)	Spain (52%)
	Croatia (10%)	Italy (29%)
		Switzerland (9.9%)

Group C	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Germany	3	7	3-0	100%
Poland	3	7	2-0	100%
Northern Ireland	3	3	2-2	100%
Ukraine	3	0	0-5	0%

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Germany	Slovakia (90%)	Spain (64%)
	Albania (10%)	Italy (36%)
Poland	Switzerland (100%)	Croatia (55%)
		Austria (14%)
		Portugal (12%)
Northern Ireland	France (66%)	Portugal (29%)
	Wales (34%)	Belgium (21%)
		England (21%)

Group D	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Croatia	3	7	5-3	100%
Spain	3	6	5-2	100%
Turkey	3	3	2-4	66%
Czechia	3	1	2-5	0%

Turkey clinch knockout berth if

Belgium draw (or win) against Sweden and Italy draw (or win) against Ireland or

Hungary win against Portugal

Turkey are eliminated if

Ireland win against Italy and Portugal draw (or win) against Hungary

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Croatia	Austria (31%)	Switzerland (50%)
	Portugal (19%)	Poland (50%)
	Hungary (16%)
Spain	Italy (100%)	Germany (80%)
		Slovakia (19%)
		Albania (1.1%)
Turkey	Wales (100%)	Belgium (59%)
		Portugal (23%)
		Hungary (12%)

Group E	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Italy	2	6	3-0	100%
Belgium	2	3	3-2	94%
Sweden	2	1	2-3	22%
Ireland	2	1	2-5	26%

Belgium clinch knockout berth if

they draw (or win) against Sweden

Belgium are eliminated if

Sweden win against Belgium and Ireland win against Italy or if they lose against Sweden with more than 3 goals

Sweden clinch knockout berth if

they win against Belgium

Sweden are eliminated if

Belgium draw (or win) against Sweden

Ireland clinch knockout berth if

they win against Italy

Ireland are eliminated if

Italy draw (or win) against Ireland

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Italy	Spain (100%)	Germany (80%)
		Slovakia (19%)
		Albania (1.1%)
Belgium	Portugal (45%)	Turkey (50%)
	Hungary (30%)	Wales (31%)
	France (14%)	Northern Ireland (8.3%)
Sweden	Portugal (54%)	Wales (48%)
	Hungary (36%)	Northern Ireland (34%)
	Iceland (8.5%)	Turkey (17%)
Ireland	France (80%)	England (48%)
	Croatia (18%)	Switzerland (17%)
	Portugal (1%)	Poland (17%)

Group F	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Hungary	2	4	3-1	100%
Iceland	2	2	2-2	49%
Portugal	2	2	1-1	82%
Austria	2	1	0-2	51%

Iceland clinch knockout berth if

they draw (or win) against Austria

Iceland are eliminated if

they lose against Austria

Portugal clinch knockout berth if

they draw (or win) against Hungary

Portugal are eliminated if

they lose against Hungary

Austria clinch knockout berth if

they win against Iceland

Austria are eliminated if

they draw (or lose) against Iceland

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Hungary	England (47%)	France (31%)
	Belgium (28%)	Turkey (21%)
	Croatia (16%)	Wales (15%)
Iceland	England (51%)	France (34%)
	Croatia (31%)	Switzerland (22%)
	Belgium (14%)	Poland (21%)
Portugal	Belgium (52%)	Wales (27%)
	Croatia (23%)	Turkey (25%)
	Sweden (14%)	Northern Ireland (14%)
Austria	Croatia (62%)	Switzerland (36%)
	England (38%)	Poland (36%)
		France (24%)

Country	Last 16	QF	SF	F	Champions
France	100	86	58	35	27
Germany	100	80	48	25	18
Spain	100	64	33	16	11
England	100	77	33	16	10
Belgium	94	55	37	24	9.5
Portugal	82	44	29	18	7
Croatia	100	56	31	15	4.1
Turkey	66	46	20	11	3
Italy	100	36	14	4.6	2.6
Switzerland	100	50	23	9.5	2.2
Poland	100	50	23	9.3	2.1
Austria	51	19	8.4	3.2	0.82
Slovakia	100	23	7.6	2.2	0.73
Sweden	22	9.8	5.9	2.7	0.61
Hungary	100	25	8.5	2.7	0.52
Wales	100	38	10	3.3	0.47
Ireland	26	5.7	2.2	0.74	0.22
Northern Ireland	100	22	5	1.3	0.19
Iceland	49	12	3.5	1	0.17
Albania	10	1.1	0.17	0.021	0.0044
Czechia	0	0	0	0	0
Ukraine	0	0	0	0	0
Russia	0	0	0	0	0
Romania	0	0	0	0	0

Expected result of 4th third-placed team

pts	+/-	Chance
3	0	70%
3	-1	67%
3	-2	0%

Euro: Group B

Wales and England clinched spots in round three and Slovakia need to wait for the remaining groups before we know if they push through.

Today we groups C and D will be completed.

Group A	p	pts	+/-	Chance
France	3	7	4-1	100%
Switzerland	3	5	2-1	100%
Albania	3	3	1-3	46%
Romania	3	1	2-4	0%

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
France	Northern Ireland (55%)	England (77%)
	Ireland (19%)	Hungary (9.3%)
	Belgium (12%)	Austria (5.4%)
Switzerland	Poland (89%)	Spain (59%)
	Germany (9%)	Croatia (12%)
	Northern Ireland (2.2%)	Austria (9.1%)
Albania	Wales (78%)	Belgium (50%)
	Germany (19%)	Portugal (26%)
	Poland (1.8%)	Hungary (8.6%)

Group B	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Wales	3	6	6-3	100%
England	3	5	3-2	100%
Slovakia	3	4	3-3	99.99%
Russia	3	1	2-6	0%

Slovakia clinch knockout berth if

Germany win against Northern Ireland or

Turkey draw (or win) against Czechia or

Spain win against Croatia with at least 2 goals

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Wales	Albania (36%)	Belgium (48%)
	Turkey (19%)	Portugal (29%)
	Czechia (15%)	Hungary (9.9%)
England	Hungary (47%)	France (84%)
	Iceland (25%)	Northern Ireland (4.9%)
	Austria (19%)	Belgium (3.7%)
Slovakia	Germany (78%)	Italy (48%)
	Spain (7.9%)	Croatia (25%)
	Poland (7.2%)	Spain (12%)

Group C	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Germany	2	4	2-0	99.99%
Poland	2	4	1-0	99.96%
Northern Ireland	2	3	2-1	78%
Ukraine	2	0	0-4	0%

Germany clinch knockout berth if

they win, draw, or lose with one goal against Northern Ireland or

Turkey draw (or win) against Czechia or

Poland clinch knockout berth if

they draw (or win) against Ukraine or Germany draw (or win) against Northern Ireland or Turkey draw (or win) against Czechia

Northern Ireland clinch knockout berth if

they draw (or win) against Germany or they lose with less than 3 goals against Germany and Turkey draw (or win) against Czechia

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Germany	Slovakia (78%)	Italy (47%)
	Switzerland (9%)	Croatia (25%)
	Albania (8.7%)	Spain (17%)
Poland	Switzerland (89%)	Spain (54%)
	Slovakia (7.2%)	Croatia (13%)
	France (2.4%)	Austria (8.2%)
Northern Ireland	France (71%)	England (27%)
	Wales (20%)	Portugal (20%)
	Slovakia (5.9%)	Belgium (14%)

Group D	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Spain	2	6	4-0	100%
Croatia	2	4	3-2	99.9%
Czechia	2	1	2-3	32%
Turkey	2	0	0-4	23%

Croatia clinch knockout berth if

Germany win against Northern Ireland or

Turkey draw (or win) against Czechia or

they draw (or win) against Spain

Czechia clinch knockout berth if

they win against Turkey

Czechia are eliminated if

Turkey win against Czechia

Turkey clinch knockout berth if

they win against Czechia with at least 3 goals and Germany win against Northern Ireland with at least 3 goals

Turkey are eliminated if

they do not win against Czechia

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Spain	Austria (25%)	Switzerland (39%)
	Italy (21%)	Poland (37%)
	Portugal (14%)	Germany (19%)
Croatia	Italy (64%)	Germany (41%)
	Wales (13%)	Slovakia (13%)
	Austria (6.4%)	Poland (13%)
Czechia	Wales (48%)	Belgium (33%)
	Italy (46%)	Germany (24%)
	France (5.7%)	Portugal (16%)
Turkey	Wales (81%)	Belgium (52%)
	France (19%)	Portugal (21%)
		Hungary (13%)

Group E	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Italy	2	6	3-0	100%
Belgium	2	3	3-2	93%
Sweden	2	1	2-3	22%
Ireland	2	1	2-5	25%

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Italy	Croatia (64%)	Germany (70%)
	Spain (21%)	Slovakia (23%)
	Czechia (15%)	Poland (4.2%)
Belgium	Portugal (46%)	Wales (39%)
	Hungary (31%)	Albania (16%)
	France (13%)	Turkey (14%)
Sweden	Portugal (53%)	Wales (44%)
	Hungary (36%)	Northern Ireland (15%)
	Iceland (8.6%)	Croatia (9.6%)
Ireland	France (77%)	England (51%)
	Spain (17%)	Switzerland (14%)
	Croatia (4.6%)	Poland (13%)

Group F	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Hungary	2	4	3-1	99.95%
Iceland	2	2	2-2	49%
Portugal	2	2	1-1	81%
Austria	2	1	0-2	50%

Hungary clinch knockout berth if

Germany win against Northern Ireland or

Turkey draw (or win) against Czechia

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Hungary	England (47%)	France (34%)
	Belgium (28%)	Wales (19%)
	Spain (13%)	Turkey (7.9%)
Iceland	England (51%)	France (40%)
	Spain (25%)	Switzerland (15%)
	Belgium (14%)	Poland (14%)
Portugal	Belgium (52%)	Wales (32%)
	Spain (18%)	Albania (11%)
	Sweden (15%)	Switzerland (9.6%)
Austria	Spain (49%)	France (32%)
	England (38%)	Switzerland (30%)
	Croatia (13%)	Poland (28%)

Country	Last 16	QF	SF	F	Champions
France	100	84	57	37	26
Germany	99.99	79	54	29	19
Spain	100	72	51	33	17
England	100	77	33	18	10
Belgium	93	54	39	21	8.6
Portugal	81	40	28	15	5.8
Italy	100	54	22	7.7	3.6
Croatia	99.9	49	20	7.4	2.4
Switzerland	100	48	16	6.7	1.6
Poland	99.96	49	16	6.6	1.6
Slovakia	99.99	26	9.9	2.6	0.83
Turkey	23	14	6.3	2.7	0.81
Austria	50	14	5.7	2.2	0.59
Sweden	22	9.9	5.7	2	0.49
Wales	100	44	11	2.8	0.43
Hungary	99.95	23	8	2.2	0.43
Czechia	32	15	5	1.6	0.39
Ireland	25	5	1.9	0.67	0.19
Iceland	49	9.6	2.8	0.72	0.13
Northern Ireland	78	14	3.2	0.63	0.1
Albania	46	17	3.7	0.75	0.091
Ukraine	0	0	0	0	0
Russia	0	0	0	0	0
Romania	0	0	0	0	0

Expected result of 4th third-placed team

pts	+/-	Chance
4	0	99%
4	-1	96%
4	-2	92%
3	+1	91%
3	0	75%
3	-1	61%
3	-2	11%
3	-3	4.7%
3	-4	3.4%
3	-5	2.8%
3	-6	2.6%
3	-7	2.5%
2	-1	0%

Euro: Group A: Switzerland clinched second place

Quite expectedly France and Switzerland drew, which means France won the group and Switzerland secured a place in the knock-out stage. Albania is in third place and need to wait for other groups to see if they are among the four best third-placed. With their result and since the third-placed country at best can get four points and +1 in goal difference, we know that a third place with four points and +2 in goal difference guarantees a place in round of 16.

Tonight we have the completion of the very open group B (see below). Apart from those countries a number of countries on four points can clinch place in knock-out stage if England win against Slovakia.

Group A	p	pts	+/-	Chance
France	3	7	4-1	100%
Switzerland	3	5	2-1	100%
Albania	3	3	1-3	52%
Romania	3	1	2-4	0%

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
France	Northern Ireland (61%)	Russia (21%)
	Ireland (15%)	Hungary (20%)
	Belgium (9.3%)	Wales (15%)
Switzerland	Poland (89%)	Spain (59%)
	Germany (9%)	Croatia (11%)
	Northern Ireland (2.2%)	Austria (8.2%)
Albania	England (55%)	Belgium (41%)
	Germany (25%)	Portugal (23%)
	Slovakia (9.3%)	Italy (12%)

Group B	p	pts	+/-	Chance
England	2	4	3-2	99.99%
Wales	2	3	3-3	74%
Slovakia	2	3	3-3	62%
Russia	2	1	2-3	50%

England clinch knockout berth if

they draw (or win) against Slovakia or

Wales draw against Russia

Wales clinch knockout berth if

they win against Russia or they draw against Russia and England draw (or win) against Slovakia

Wales are eliminated if

Russia win against Wales and Slovakia draw (or win) against England

Slovakia clinch knockout berth if

they win against England or they draw against England and Russia win against Wale

Slovakia are eliminated if

they lose against England and Russia win against Wales

Russia clinch knockout berth if

they win against Wales and England win against Slovakia or they win against Wales with at least 3 goals or they win against Wales with at least 2 goals and Slovakia win against England they win against Wales and Slovakia win against England with at least 2 goals

Russia are eliminated if

they fail to win against Wales

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
England	Albania (29%)	Belgium (39%)
	Turkey (16%)	Portugal (23%)
	Czechia (12%)	France (10%)
Wales	Germany (30%)	France (52%)
	Hungary (22%)	Belgium (11%)
	Iceland (12%)	Italy (9.2%)
Slovakia	Germany (41%)	France (29%)
	Hungary (12%)	Belgium (17%)
	Albania (7.8%)	Italy (16%)
Russia	Hungary (36%)	France (74%)
	Iceland (19%)	Italy (6%)
	Germany (19%)	Northern Ireland (4.8%)

Group C	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Germany	2	4	2-0	99.99%
Poland	2	4	1-0	99.99%
Northern Ireland	2	3	2-1	80%
Ukraine	2	0	0-4	0%

Germany clinch knockout berth if

England win against Slovakia

Poland clinch knockout berth if

England win against Slovakia

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Germany	Slovakia (26%)	Italy (48%)
	Wales (22%)	Croatia (25%)
	Albania (13%)	Spain (17%)
Poland	Switzerland (89%)	Spain (54%)
	France (2.6%)	Croatia (13%)
	Slovakia (2.3%)	Austria (7.5%)
Northern Ireland	France (76%)	Portugal (13%)
	England (11%)	Hungary (12%)
	Slovakia (4.3%)	Russia (11%)

Group D	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Spain	2	6	4-0	100%
Croatia	2	4	3-2	99.95%
Czechia	2	1	2-3	32%
Turkey	2	0	0-4	25%

Croatia clinch knockout berth if

England win against Slovakia

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Spain	Austria (22%)	Switzerland (39%)
	Italy (21%)	Poland (37%)
	Portugal (13%)	Germany (19%)
Croatia	Italy (64%)	Germany (45%)
	England (10%)	Poland (14%)
	Austria (5.8%)	Switzerland (12%)
Czechia	Italy (46%)	Germany (35%)
	England (36%)	Belgium (24%)
	Slovakia (6.5%)	Portugal (12%)
Turkey	England (64%)	Belgium (49%)
	France (18%)	Portugal (22%)
	Slovakia (10%)	Hungary (13%)

Group E	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Italy	2	6	3-0	100%
Belgium	2	3	3-2	93%
Sweden	2	1	2-3	22%
Ireland	2	1	2-5	26%

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Italy	Croatia (64%)	Germany (70%)
	Spain (21%)	Slovakia (7.4%)
	Czechia (15%)	England (5.3%)
Belgium	Portugal (46%)	England (53%)
	Hungary (31%)	Turkey (8.3%)
	France (10%)	Slovakia (7.5%)
Sweden	Portugal (53%)	England (58%)
	Hungary (35%)	Slovakia (7.9%)
	Iceland (8.5%)	Turkey (5.9%)
Ireland	France (59%)	Switzerland (23%)
	Spain (31%)	Poland (21%)
	Croatia (8.1%)	Hungary (11%)

Group F	p	pts	+/-	Chance
Hungary	2	4	3-1	99.98%
Iceland	2	2	2-2	49%
Portugal	2	2	1-1	82%
Austria	2	1	0-2	50%

Hungary clinch knockout berth if

England win against Slovakia

Likely Opponents
Country	Round of 16	Quarter-final
Hungary	Belgium (28%)	France (51%)
	Russia (18%)	England (17%)
	Wales (17%)	Switzerland (4.4%)
Iceland	Spain (22%)	France (57%)
	Russia (19%)	England (8.7%)
	Wales (18%)	Switzerland (8.3%)
Portugal	Belgium (52%)	England (40%)
	Spain (16%)	France (12%)
	Sweden (14%)	Switzerland (8.3%)
Austria	Spain (44%)	France (46%)
	Russia (14%)	Switzerland (20%)
	Wales (14%)	Poland (19%)

Country	Last 16	QF	SF	F	Champions
France	100	85	70	45	31
Germany	99.99	79	54	30	19
Spain	100	72	51	30	15
England	99.99	74	44	25	12
Belgium	93	55	31	16	6.6
Portugal	82	42	22	12	4.5
Italy	100	54	22	8.1	3.6
Croatia	99.95	45	18	6.4	2.1
Poland	99.99	49	16	5.5	1.3
Switzerland	100	48	16	5.5	1.3
Slovakia	62	25	8.1	2.5	0.7
Austria	50	19	6.8	2.2	0.61
Turkey	25	9.3	4.3	1.8	0.55
Russia	50	24	5.7	1.6	0.5
Hungary	99.98	34	7.9	2	0.42
Sweden	22	9.9	3.7	1.3	0.33
Czechia	32	10	3.4	1	0.26
Ireland	26	5.6	2.7	0.83	0.23
Wales	74	24	4.6	0.94	0.17
Iceland	49	15	3.2	0.71	0.13
Northern Ireland	80	11	3.2	0.57	0.097
Albania	52	9.4	2	0.39	0.051
Ukraine	0	0	0	0	0
Romania	0	0	0	0	0

Expected result of 4th third-placed team

pts	+/-	Chance
4	0	99.5%
4	-1	98%
4	-2	97%
4	-3	96%
3	0	88%
3	-1	72%
3	-2	17%
3	-3	6.3%
3	-4	3.9%
3	-5	2.9%
3	-6	2.6%
3	-7	2.5%
3	-8	2.4%
2	-1	0%