CL: Round of 16

With first leg played 13 teams are still in the competition. Curves below show how each teams chance (to win the tournament) developed over the first 90 minutes. Most notably, Real's comeback against PSG, Barcelona's equalizer against Chelsea, and Tottenham's comeback against Juventus changed the chances significantly for Tottenham and Juventus.

The four favourites are still favourites Real increased their chances against PSG from 70% to 87%. Barcelona increased their chances slighly with their draw away (+3%). Man City and Bayern virtually secured advancement in first leg. Liverpool killed thei match in the first leg as well. Tottenham turned around 44% chance against Juventus to 64% with a 2-2 draw away. Shakhtar increased chances against Roma to 49% (+14%) with a 2-1 win at home. Sevilla increaed their chances slightly against Man United to 35% (+4%) with a 0-0 draw at home.

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	87%	57%	37%	22%
Barcelona	71%	47%	30%	18%
Man City	100%	57%	31%	16%
Bayern	100%	54%	27%	13%
Liverpool	100%	42%	16%	6%
Tottenham	64%	30%	13%	6%
Man United	65%	30%	13%	6%
Juventus	36%	19%	10%	5%
Chelsea	29%	14%	7%	3%
Roma	51%	20%	7%	3%
Paris SG	13%	6%	3%	1%
Shakhtar	49%	13%	3%	<1%
Sevilla	35%	10%	3%	<1%
Besiktas	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Porto	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Basel	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

CL: Round of 16

After six leg-1 matches three teams are virtually through and three matches are open.

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	87%	57%	36%	22%
Barcelona	71%	47%	30%	18%
Man City	100%	57%	31%	16%
Bayern	100%	53%	27%	13%
Liverpool	100%	42%	16%	6%
Man United	69%	32%	14%	6%
Tottenham	64%	30%	13%	6%
Juventus	36%	19%	9%	5%
Roma	65%	25%	9%	4%
Chelsea	29%	14%	7%	3%
Paris SG	13%	6%	3%	1%
Sevilla	31%	9%	3%	<1%
Shakhtar	35%	9%	2%	<1%
Besiktas	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Porto	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Basel	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

CL: Round of 16

Updated probabilities for teams to reach each round

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	87%	58%	37%	22%
Barcelona	68%	45%	29%	17%
Man City	100%	58%	32%	16%
Bayern	80%	43%	22%	11%
Liverpool	100%	43%	17%	7%
Man United	69%	32%	14%	6%
Tottenham	64%	31%	14%	6%
Juventus	36%	19%	10%	5%
Roma	65%	26%	10%	4%
Chelsea	32%	16%	8%	3%
Paris SG	13%	6%	3%	1%
Sevilla	31%	10%	3%	<1%
Shakhtar	35%	9%	2%	<1%
Besiktas	20%	5%	1%	<1%
Porto	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Basel	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

CL: Round of 16

Updated probabilities for teams to reach each round

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	70%	47%	30%	18%
Barcelona	68%	46%	29%	18%
Man City	100%	59%	33%	17%
Bayern	80%	44%	23%	11%
Man United	69%	33%	15%	7%
Tottenham	64%	31%	14%	6%
Juventus	36%	20%	10%	5%
Liverpool	67%	29%	12%	5%
Roma	65%	27%	10%	4%
Chelsea	32%	16%	8%	4%
Paris SG	30%	15%	7%	3%
Sevilla	31%	10%	3%	<1%
Shakhtar	35%	10%	3%	<1%
Porto	33%	9%	2%	<1%
Besiktas	20%	5%	1%	<1%
Basel	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

CL: Last 16

Here are the predictions for the knockout stage:

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champions
Real Madrid	70%	47%	30%	18%
Barcelona	68%	46%	30%	18%
Man City	85%	50%	28%	14%
Bayern	80%	44%	23%	11%
Juventus	56%	31%	16%	8%
Man United	69%	34%	15%	7%
Liverpool	67%	29%	12%	5%
Tottenham	44%	22%	10%	5%
Roma	65%	27%	11%	4%
Chelsea	32%	17%	8%	4%
Paris SG	30%	15%	7%	3%
Sevilla	31%	10%	3%	<1%
Shakhtar	35%	10%	3%	<1%
Porto	33%	10%	3%	<1%
Besiktas	20%	5%	1%	<1%
Basel	15%	4%	<1%	<1%

The Spanish teams are favourites with a total 36% to win in the end. English teams have a 35% aggregated chance.

CL: Match Day 6

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	12	23-6	Liverpool
100%	6	9	12-12	Sevilla
0%	6	6	9-13	Spartak Moskva
0%	6	3	3-16	Maribor

Spartak needed to win against Liverpool, so when Liverpool got a penalty in 4th minute and scored a 2nd goal in 15th minute the group was dead.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	15	14-5	Man City
100%	6	12	9-9	Shakhtar
0%	6	6	11-11	Napoli
0%	6	3	5-14	Feyenoord

Napoli needed a win and that Man City won against Shakhtar. In the middle of first half Feyernord took the lead against Napoli and Shakhtar scored twice against Man City, Shakhtar had virtually clinched a place in last 16.

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	14	11-5	Besiktas
100%	6	10	15-10	Porto
0%	6	7	10-11	RB Leipzig
0%	6	2	6-16	Monaco

Porto needed to as many points as Leipzig. With an early goal by Porto and Besiktas took the lead against Leipzig the group was decided.

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	16	15-3	Tottenham
100%	6	13	17-7	Real Madrid
0%	6	2	6-13	Dortmund
0%	6	2	2-17	APOEL

Group H was already decided.

Here are the probability for different match-ups in last 16 stage:

Winner \ Runner-up	Baye	Shak	Juve	Sevi	Port	Real	Base	Chel	Total
Man United	14%	15%	18%	18%	14%	18%			100%
Paris SG		11%	12%	12%	10%	12%	11%	28%	100%
Roma	15%	15%		18%	15%	18%	15%		99%
Barcelona	13%	14%			13%		14%	43%	100%
Liverpool	15%	15%	18%		15%	18%	15%		100%
Besiktas	10%	11%	13%	12%		12%	11%	28%	100%
Tottenham	15%	16%	18%	18%	15%		15%		100%
Man City	14%		18%	18%	14%	18%	15%		100%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

CL: Match Day 6

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	15	12-3	Man United
100%	6	12	11-5	Basel
0%	6	9	8-10	CSKA Moskva
0%	6	0	1-14	Benfica

Basel scored an early goal giving them some space. CSKA did what they could and took the lead against Man U, but with two quick goals by Man U the hope was out for CSKA.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	15	25-4	Paris SG
100%	6	15	13-6	Bayern
0%	6	3	5-18	Celtic
0%	6	3	2-17	Anderlecht

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	11	9-6	Roma
100%	6	11	15-8	Chelsea
0%	6	7	5-4	Atletico
0%	6	2	2-13	Qarabag

Atletico needed to win and for long they were only one goal from advancement as Roma's match was scoreless, but early in second half Roma took the lead and the group was decided.

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	14	9-1	Barcelona
100%	6	11	7-5	Juventus
0%	6	7	8-9	Sporting
0%	6	1	4-13	Olympiakos

Juventus took an early lead and killed Sporting's chances.

Here are the probabilities for possible matches in round of 16

Winner \ Runner-up	Live	Sevi	Spar	Baye	Shak	Napo	Juve	Port	RB L	Real	Base	Chel	Total
Man United		15%	1%	14%	12%	3%	18%	8%	6%	19%			100%
Paris SG	1%	10%	<1%		9%	2%	12%	6%	4%	13%	11%	26%	100%
Roma	2%	16%	1%	15%	12%			9%	6%	19%	16%		100%
Barcelona	2%		1%	13%	12%	2%		7%	5%		14%	40%	100%
Tottenham		15%	1%	15%	13%	3%	19%	9%	6%		15%		99%
Besiktas	1%	10%	1%	10%	9%	2%	13%			13%	11%	26%	100%
Man City		15%	1%	15%			18%	8%	6%	19%	15%		100%
Liverpool				12%	10%	2%	15%	7%	5%	15%	12%		80%
Sevilla				2%	1%	<1%	2%	1%	<1%		2%	4%	15%
Spartak Mosk				<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	4%
Total	7%	83%	8%	100%	82%	17%	99%	58%	41%	100%	100%	100%