PL: Predictions after week 36

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	96.6	95-23	74.2	100
Liverpool	95.5	88-21	25.8	100
Tottenham	74.1	69-37	0	96.9
Chelsea	71.9	64-40	0	72.5
Arsenal	70.1	73-51	0	25.3
Man United	69.4	68-52	0	5.36

Man City
Point	Probability	Chance
98	52.9	100
96	23.3	51.5
95	16.9	49.6
94	2.39	26.2
93	3.35	8.09
92	1.14	5.52

We predict Man City have 53% chance winning the last two matches and thereby clinching the title. If they lose two or three points they have ca 50% chance.

Liverpool
Point	Probability	Chance
97	48.6	47.2
95	24	8.12
94	19.5	4.57
93	2.61	1.04

We predict Liverpool have ca 50% to win the last two matches and if they do, they have 47% to win the title.

Teams 3-6 behave like cyclists in aTour de France before the sprint. No one want to take the head wind and rather stay behind.

Tottenham
Point	Probability	Chance
76	38.9	100
74	25	100
73	23.2	100
72	3.68	99.8
71	6.5	78
70	2.78	40.7

Tottenham need two more points to virtually clinch top 4.

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
74	34.4	100
72	24.8	79.5
71	26.3	62.5
70	3.82	24.7
69	7.37	11.7
68	3.3	2.88

Chelsea clinch top 4 if they win last two matches and finish on 74 points. Even finishing on 71 points is likely sufficient to finish top 4.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
72	37.5	59.8
70	24.9	7.02
69	24	4.4

Arsenal need to win two last matches (36%) to have a reasonable chance (59%).

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
71	46.4	11.3

United can reach 71 points if they win both last matches (46%). That will likely not be sufficient as Arsenal have 38% to finish with more points and Chelsea have 59%.

PL: Predictions after week 35

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	95.9	96-24	65.2	100
Liverpool	95.2	87-22	34.8	100
Tottenham	76.4	71-38	0	98.2
Chelsea	72.1	64-41	0	47.1
Arsenal	71.7	74-49	0	42.4
Man United	70	69-53	0	12.4

Man City
Point	Probability	Chance
98	35.8	100
96	25.4	58.5
95	18.9	58.1
94	5.87	33.3
93	8.58	14.2
92	3.6	9.56

Man City win if they win remaining matches (35.8%).

Liverpool
Point	Probability	Chance
97	41.5	64.3
95	25.3	20.1
94	19	14
93	4.6	5.42
92	6.37	1.91

Liverpool have slightly easier schedule with two home matches and predicted chance of 41.5% to win all of them.

The top 4 race has crystallized into a two-horse race between Chelsea and Arsenal.

Tottenham
Point	Probability	Chance
79	27.7	100
77	24.3	100
76	21.2	100
75	6.78	99.7
74	11.5	98.2
73	5.34	94.6
72	1.53	70
71	1.25	53.3

Tottenham need another 6 points (73%) to be guaranteed to finish top 4. And even if they only take 3 points and finish on 73 they have >90% chance.

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
76	10.4	100
74	15.6	84.4
73	23.9	62.2
72	7.07	43.2
71	19.8	23.6
70	14.1	5.6
69	3.5	2.16

If Chelsea win remaining three matches (10%), they clinch top 4. The key match is against Man Unite din the next round.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
75	16.9	91.8
73	20.2	73.8
72	22.4	36.4
71	7.69	29.1
70	16.6	8.24
69	9.68	1.97

Arsenal have 42% to reach top 4. They need to take 7 more points to have a >50% chance. The most likely outcome is 6 points and finish on 72p, one point behind Chelsea.

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
73	21.3	46.2
71	22.1	10.1
70	23.4	1.21

United need to win remaining matches (21.3) to have a fair chance (46%).

PL: Tottenham probably clinch top 4

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	95.2	87-22	55.1	100
Man City	94.4	96-26	44.9	100
Tottenham	76.4	71-38	0	95.6
Arsenal	73.4	75-47	0	59.9
Chelsea	72.1	64-41	0	27.1
Man United	71.2	70-52	0	17.4

Tottenham won with a late winner against Brighton and now have a 95.6% chance to reach CL.

Tottenham
Point	Probability	Chance
79	27.8	100
77	24.3	100
76	21.2	100
75	6.8	95.4
74	11.5	92.7
73	5.33	76.3
72	1.53	47
71	1.25	30.3

Tottenham clinch top 4 if they finish with at least 76p (73%) and also 75 or 74 are likely (>90%) to suffice.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
78	8.57	100
76	14.2	99.6
75	15.9	86.4
74	8.52	84.3
73	19	57.1
72	12.5	29.5
71	7.21	19
70	7.92	4.81
69	3.67	1.16

If Arsenal finish on 73p they have a good chance (>50%).

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
76	10.4	84.1
74	15.7	56.6
73	23.7	27.4
72	7.1	19.9
71	19.9	6.81
70	14.1	1.21

Chelsea probably need to take 74p to finish top 4.  

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
76	6.88	83.3
74	12.2	52.4
73	16.8	21.1
72	7.63	12.1
71	19.9	3.5

Man United probably need to take 74p to finish top 4.

PL: Liverpool and Man City both won

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	95.2	87-22	55.1	100
Man City	94.4	96-26	44.9	100
Tottenham	75.9	73-38	0	92.1
Arsenal	73.4	75-47	0	60.8
Chelsea	72.1	64-41	0	28.6
Man United	71.2	70-52	0	18.4

Liverpool
Point	Probability	Chance
97	41.6	84.2
95	25.3	45.2
94	18.9	36.3
93	4.61	19.7
92	6.34	10.6
91	2.38	5.97

Liverpool have three matches left and the most likely outcome (42%) is that they win all matches.

Man City
Point	Probability	Chance
98	15.7	100
96	19.7	58.6
95	19.8	57.7
94	8.66	32.8
93	16.5	14.2
92	9.07	9.58
91	4.36	3.21

Man City have four matches left, including a derby against United. We predict they have 16% chance to win all matches, which would give them the title, and it's more likely that they take 15 (19.8%) or 16 (19.7%) points.

In the race for CL tickets all teams lost points. Tottenham only lost 0.8 points in expected points as their loss versus Man City was not unexpected. Most surprising (-2.3p) was Arsenal loss against Palace, followed by Chelsea's draw against Burnley (-1.4).

Tottenham
Point	Probability	Chance
79	21.3	100
77	22.6	100
76	18.8	100
75	8.67	95.7
74	14.1	93.2
73	7.01	77.2
72	3.35	47.4
71	2.75	32

Tottenham reach at least 76p in 62.7% of the simulations, which would clinch a spot in CL.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
78	8.6	100
76	14.2	99.7
75	15.8	87.7
74	8.56	85.1
73	18.9	59
72	12.5	31.1
71	7.2	19.9
70	7.98	5.14
69	3.68	1.25

Most common outcome for Arsenal is 73p, which would give them 59% to reach CL. 76p would virtually clinch the a CL spot.

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
76	10.4	86.2
74	15.6	59.7
73	23.8	30
72	7.12	21.5
71	19.9	7.4
70	14.1	1.41

Most common outcome in simulations for Chelsea is 73p (24%) and would probably not suffice for a CL spot.

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
76	6.87	85.7
74	12.3	55.1
73	16.7	23.3
72	7.66	13.4
71	20	3.85

Most common outcome for United is only 71p, in other words, two wins, a draw and a loss. This is partly due to the coming derby against City where City a big favorites.

CL: Predictions Final Four

Here are how the chances have evolved during the knockout-stage.

Team	Final	Champ
Barcelona	62%	42%
Tottenham	70%	28%
Liverpool	38%	22%
Ajax	30%	8%

Barcelona are favourites (62%) to win the semifinal against Liverpool and Tottenham are favourites (70%) to win the semifinal against Ajax.

CL: Quarterfinals Leg 2 - Match Day 2

Team	Semi	Final	Champ
Barcelona	100%	64%	40%
Liverpool	92%	35%	19%
Tottenham	60%	42%	17%
Man City	40%	32%	16%
Ajax	100%	26%	7%
Porto	8%	2%	<1%

Second favorites when the day started, Juventus, crashed out against Ajax who will no play the winner of Man City and Tottenham. Barcelona favorites followed by the three English teams.

PL: Arsenal beat Watford

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	94.4	87-23	57.2	100
Man City	93.4	97-27	42.8	100
Tottenham	76.7	74-39	0	83.8
Arsenal	75.7	76-45	0	68.9
Chelsea	73.5	65-40	0	25.9
Man United	72.7	72-48	0	21.5

Tottenham
Point	Probability	Chance
82	4.4	100
80	9.27	100
79	16.3	100
78	6.58	99.4
77	20.1	96.5
76	14.2	92.2
75	8.69	76.5
74	10.2	56.6
73	4.97	37.2
72	2.6	17.1
71	1.83	6.95

The most likely outcome (20%) for Tottenham is a loss against City, three wins and a draw, which would give them 77p and 96.5% to finish top4.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
81	6.02	100
79	11.4	99.8
78	12.2	98.6
77	8.4	93.8
76	17.8	86.1
75	12.3	67.3
74	9.4	46.7
73	10.2	27.9
72	5.39	12
71	3.25	4.62
70	2.32	1.35

The most likely outcome (18%) for Arsenal is 76p  via 3 wins a draw and a loss, which would give them 86%.

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
78	7.77	89.4
76	13.4	59.8
75	18.9	36.2
74	7.64	24.8
73	20	8.68
72	14	2.88
71	6.33	1

Chelsea have a visit to Old Trafford left. They need at least a 3-win 1-draw finish to have more than 50% chance.

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
79	2.88	95.4
77	6.8	79.8
76	9.38	59.7
75	6.18	41.7
74	16.6	20.8
73	13.6	8.96
72	10.4	3.07

United have a difficult match at home against Chelsea. They probably need a at least a draw there .