PL: Scoreless Manchester Derby

Man City and United drew giving the following expected table

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	88.7	80-34	93.5	100
Tottenham	82.3	77-28	6.47	99.9
Man City	75.2	73-40	0.002	81.8
Man United	72.3	59-30	0.0002	37.3
Liverpool	73.7	78-46	0	65.8
Arsenal	69.8	74-48	0	15.1
Everton	63.8	66-42	0	0.0737

The table below shows the probabilities for each team to finish top 4. For each team the left column shows probability the team finishes with that many points and the second column the chance (%) the team finish top 4 if it gets that many points. Chelsea, for example, have 100% no matter what and have already qualified for CL. Tottenham have 100% if they get at least 78 points, in other words, four more points. If they lose remaining matches they have a 81% chance to qualify to CL. City and United secure top 4 if they win remaining matches, while that's not true for Liverpool.

Points	Chelsea	Top4	Tottenham	Top4	Liverpool	Top4	Man City	Top4	Man United	Top4	Arsenal	Top 4	Everton	Top 4
93	10.3	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
91	15.9	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
90	17	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
89	9.03	100	2.42	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
88	18.2	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
87	11.3	100	6	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
86	6.67	100	7.54	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
85	6.35	100	5.91	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
84	2.76	100	14.8	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
83	1.32	100	12.1	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
82	0.782	100	10.8	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
81	0.24	100	14.2	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
80	0.0784	100	9.04	100	-	-	8.52	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
79	0.0292	100	6.56	100	-	-	-	-	1.82	100	-	-	-	-
78	0.0048	100	5.72	100	10.1	99.7	14.3	99.9	-	-	0.823	98.9	-	-
77	-	-	2.67	99.8	-	-	13.4	99.6	4.84	96.9	-	-	-	-
76	-	-	1.27	99.5	15.5	95.9	9.36	98	8.1	89.8	2.66	90.7	-	-
75	-	-	0.779	94.9	17.2	88.5	17.5	92.2	4.83	77.9	4.01	74.1	-	-
74	-	-	0.19	80.9	8.68	78.8	11.2	83.7	15.6	60.5	3.43	60.6	-	-
73	-	-	-	-	18.6	60.4	8.44	67.3	14.5	39.1	10.2	37	-	-
72	-	-	-	-	11.9	41.1	8.24	45.6	10.3	24.3	9.66	18.1	-	-
71	-	-	-	-	6.42	25.7	4.15	28.5	15.8	10.8	9.86	8.65	-	-
70	-	-	-	-	6.74	11.6	2.47	13.3	10	3.85	14.8	2.62	2.15	3.16
69	-	-	-	-	2.9	4.54	1.6	5.18	5.63	1.22	11.1	0.627	-	-
68	-	-	-	-	1.05	1.6	0.569	1.65	5.17	0.207	9.79	0.134	5.43	0.0939
67	-	-	-	-	0.689	0.392	0.228	0.307	2.15	0.0325	9.72	0.0103	10.1	0.00794

PL: Tottenham won

Tottenham and Arsenal won their matches. Tottenham is now 6.4 expected points behind Chelsea, while Arsenal is trailing 3.9 points behind Liverpool. Important derbies coming up, first in Manchester tomorrow and then in North London on Sunday.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	88.7	80-34	93.5	100
Tottenham	82.3	77-28	6.47	99.9
Man City	75.9	75-41	0.0181	83.4
Liverpool	73.7	78-46	0	65.4
Man United	72.4	60-32	0.0006	37
Arsenal	69.8	74-48	0	14.3
Everton	63.8	66-42	0	0.0688

PL: Chelsea won

Chelsea won against Southampton and now have 96% to win the league.

Expected Outcome

Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	88.7	80-34	95.9	100
Tottenham	81	78-29	4.08	99.4
Man City	75.9	75-41	0.029	84.2
Man United	72.4	60-32	0.0011	38.2
Liverpool	73.7	78-46	0.0001	67.2
Arsenal	68.8	75-49	0	11
Everton	63.8	66-42	0	0.0746

PL: Liverpool lost

Liverpool lost their match against Crystal Palace and as Man United won their match the margin down to Man United is only 1.3 points. Man United has 38% chance to grab a Champions League ticket, while Liverpool's chance is down to 67%.



Expected Outcome

Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	87.9	79-33	93.2	100
Tottenham	81.1	78-29	6.76	99.4
Man City	75.9	75-41	0.0816	84.2
Liverpool	73.7	78-46	0.0005	67.1
Man United	72.4	60-32	0.0041	38.2
Arsenal	68.8	75-49	0.0001	11
Everton	63.8	66-42	0	0.0718

CL: Final Four

After the quarterfinals (before the draw) the predictions are as follow:

Team	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	69%	35%
Atletico	51%	26%
Juventus	48%	24%
Monaco	31%	16%

PL: Chelsea lost against Man U

Chelsea lost against Man United shrinking the gap down to Tottenham to only four points. Chelsea's schedule is, however, easier than Tottenham's with Tottenham having both Man United and Arsenal left to play at home. Both teams have six matches to play. In our simulations, Chelsea take on average 13 (of 18) points and Tottenham take 10 (of 18) points, giving Chelsea a 7 point margin.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	88	79-33	93.2	100
Tottenham	81	78-29	6.7	99.3
Man City	75.9	75-41	0.077	83.9
Liverpool	76	79-45	0.0389	88.6
Man United	71.1	60-33	0.0023	20.2
Arsenal	68.8	75-49	0	7.95
Everton	64.1	67-44	0	0.162

Table below shows the probability for Chelsea and Tottenham to end on a certain point. For instance, 7.18% that Chelsea win all remaining matches and get 93 points. More than 33% that Chelsea take at least 90 points and then they are Champions regardless of what Tottenham do. If they take 86 points (9%), which corresponds to 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, they have more than 90% to win the league. If Tottenham take less than 84 points, in other words, lose two matches, they have less than 10% chance.

Points	Chelsea	Win(%)	Tottenham	Win (%)
93	7.18	100	-	-
91	12.9	100	-	-
90	13.2	100	-	-
89	9.01	98.8	1.21	65.8
88	17.8	98.8	-	-
87	11.6	95.2	3.65	39.8
86	8.96	90.5	4.48	28.4
85	8.76	86.4	4.39	18.9
84	4.56	75.3	10.9	10.8
83	2.89	66.1	9.49	6.21
82	1.85	53.4	10.4	3.16
81	0.761	36.8	13.9	1.31
80	0.343	25.8	10.2	0.504
79	0.169	13.8	9.4	0.175
78	0.046	4.57	8.72	0.0459
77	0.013	2.31	5.22	0.00383
76	0.0048	0	3.67	0

CL: Quarterfinal leg 1

Juventus thrashed Bracelona with 3-0 and have 88% (+54) chance to pass
into semifinals. Atletico won 1-0 at home against Leicester having 88%
(+6) chance to win over two matches. In Munich, Bayern had 1-0 and a
penalty, but Vidal missed and Real Madrid turned it around with two
goals by Ronaldo. That gives Madrid a clear advantage, 82% (+31), for
the 2nd leg in Madrid. In the postponded match between Dortmund and
Monaco, Monaco manage to win away with 3-2 giving them a 83% (+42).

Real Madrid are favourites to defend the title with Atletico and Juventus also having more than 20% chance.

Team	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	82%	57%	29%
Atletico	88%	44%	22%
Juventus	88%	43%	22%
Monaco	83%	26%	13%
Bayern	18%	12%	6%
Barcelona	12%	7%	4%
Dortmund	17%	7%	4%
Leicester	12%	3%	1%

PL: Arsenal lost

Arsenal were thrashed by Crystal Palace and are now trailing 7 points behind Liverpool in the predicted outcome. Their chance to finish among top 4 are now down to 11%.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	89.2	80-32	96.5	100
Tottenham	80.4	76-30	3.46	99.3
Man City	74.4	74-43	0.0217	80.5
Liverpool	74.5	80-46	0.0122	86.1
Man United	69.6	59-35	0.0013	22.2
Arsenal	67.6	75-49	0	11.4
Everton	63.2	66-44	0	0.468

PL: Both Chelsea and Tottenham won

Both Chelsea and Tottenham won and Chelsea increased their chances to 96.5% (+1.7). Tottenham have 7 points to catch up, but have a slightly tougher schedule illustrated by the 9 points deficit in the average simulated outcome.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	89.2	80-32	96.5	100
Tottenham	80.4	76-30	3.43	99
Man City	74.4	74-43	0.0234	75.7
Liverpool	74.5	80-46	0.0142	81.3
Man United	69.6	59-35	0.0012	19.9
Arsenal	69.4	77-47	0.0003	22.3
Everton	65.1	67-45	0	1.83

Premier League

Both Chelsea and Tottenham won Chelsea now have 95% (+2) chance to win the league, while Tottenham has 5% (-0.3). Chelsea need another 16 points (of 24) to be 99% sure to win the title. Tottenham need at least another 19 points (of 24) to keep their chance above 10%.

Arsenal increased their chances for top 4 position (+11) as they were they only team that managed to win. Liverpool have 6 points more than Arsenal but two more played matches. Looking at the average points in simulations
Liverpool still have 3.5 points (-2.5) margin down to Arsenal in expected points, reflecting that Liverpool's schedule looks easier.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	88.1	79-32	94.8	100
Tottenham	79.7	75-31	5.14	98.7
Man City	73.8	73-42	0.0651	77.3
Liverpool	73	79-47	0.0288	73.7
Arsenal	69.4	77-47	0.0049	30.3
Man United	68.5	58-36	0.0026	19.4
Everton	62.1	64-43	0	0.54

Premier League

Premier League has reached its final stage. The table below shows the average outcome in simulations taking into account teams' strength, which teams they will play, and whether the matches are home or away. The two columns to the right show the predicted chance each team has win the league (Champ%) and qualify for Champions League (Top4%).

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	87	79-32	93.1	100
Tottenham	78.4	74-31	5.69	96.1
Man City	74.7	73-42	0.811	79.7
Liverpool	74.3	80-46	0.345	80.7
Man United	69.4	59-36	0.0352	23.4
Arsenal	68.5	76-48	0.0107	19.6
Everton	61.9	65-44	0	0.53

Table below shows that the probability that a team ends on a certain point and the probability that it wins the league if it gets that many points. For instance, Chelsea secured the championship if they take at least 90 points and if they only take 80 points, they only have 50% chance to win the league.

Points	Chelsea		Tottenham		Liverpool		Man City		Man United		Arsenal		Everton
96	0.77	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
94	2.49	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
93	2.98	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
92	3.54	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
91	8.19	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
90	7.47	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
89	9.51	99.7	0.311	73.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
88	11.9	99.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
87	9.95	98.6	1.24	52	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
86	10.4	97.3	1.43	41.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
85	9.46	95	2.07	31.5	-	-	0.301	43.2	-	-	-	-	-	-
84	6.97	90.3	4.85	22.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
83	5.82	84.2	4.84	15.5	0.897	12.8	1.16	19.9	0.0373	19.8	-	-	-	-
82	4.14	75.2	7.04	9.81	-	-	1.67	8.51	-	-	-	-	-	-
81	2.62	63.6	9.4	5.61	2.8	3.79	1.9	6	0.175	5.78	0.0903	3.99	-	-
80	1.74	50	8.82	3.21	3.29	1.77	5.3	2.21	0.283	2.33	-	-	-	-
79	1.02	36.5	10.4	1.43	3.88	0.808	5.24	0.828	0.425	0.965	0.413	0.872	-	-
78	0.517	22.9	10.5	0.617	8.79	0.265	7.3	0.325	1.3	0.362	0.575	0.348	-	-
77	0.287	13	8.89	0.214	7.84	0.0893	10.3	0.0717	1.57	0.0767	0.88	0.102	-	-
76	0.128	5.78	8.39	0.0608	9.8	0.0296	9.28	0.0162	2.64	0.0227	2.32	0.0259	-	-
75	0.048	2.71	6.81	0.0132	12.4	0.00647	10.7	0.00372	4.44	0.0112	2.52	0	-	-
74	0.0206	1.46	5.04	0.00397	10.1	0	10.8	0	4.92	0	4.14	0	0.0595	0
73	0.0062	0	3.88	0.00258	10.2	0	8.74	0	6.9	0	6.12	0	-	-