PL: Tottenham won against Watford

Tottenham have 98% chance to finish top-4 while Liverpools chance is 93%. Liverpool can clinch their CL place with a draw against Chelsea on Sunday. Tottenham need five points to secure a spot in CL.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	100	110-28	100	100
Man United	83.3	73-30	0	100
Tottenham	77.6	75-33	0	98.0
Liverpool	75.4	83-39	0	92.7
Chelsea	72.4	67-37	0	9.26

Tottenham have clinched CL, if they take 5 (of 9) more points

Tottenham have more than 99% chance, if they take 4 (of 9) more points

Tottenham have more than 79% chance, if they take 3 (of 9) more points

Tottenham have more than 75% chance, if they take 2 (of 9) more points

Tottenham have more than 40% chance, if they take 1 (of 9) more points

Tottenham have more than 25% chance, if they take 0 (of 9) more points

Liverpool have clinched CL, if they draw (or win) against Chelsea

Liverpool have more than 99.8% chance, if they take 3 (of 6) more points

Liverpool have more than 60% chance, if they take 1 (of 6) more points

Liverpool have more than 25% chance, if they take 0 (of 6) more points

Chelsea have more than 25% chance, if they take 9 (of 9) more points

Chelsea have more than 5% chance, if they take 7 (of 9) more points

Chelsea have less than 0.3% chance, if they take 6 (of 9) more points

Chelsea have less than 0.01% chance, if they take 5 (of 9) more points

CL: Manchester United clinched champions league

Man United clinched a place in CL with their win against Arsenal, and the loss for Arsenal means their only chance to CL is via a winning Europa League.

Liverpool only drew against Stoke and now have a three-point lead against Chelsea in the expected outcome. With two matches left, of which one is against Chelsea, they need at least two points to clinch a CL place.

Tottenham have a 4.6-point lead against Chelsea. They need eight points in the remaining four matches to clinch CL, while seven point likely will suffice (99%) depending on goal difference and Chelsea's results.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	100	110-28	100	100
Man United	83.3	73-30	0	100
Tottenham	77	75-34	0	95.6
Liverpool	75.4	83-39	0	93
Chelsea	72.4	67-37	0	11.4
Arsenal	62.5	72-51	0	0

Liverpool have clinched CL, if they take 2 (of 6) more points

Liverpool have more than 50% chance, if they take 1 (of 6) more points

Tottenham have clinched CL, if they take 8 (of 12) more points

Tottenham have more than 99% chance, if they take 7 (of 12) more points

Tottenham have more than 50% chance, if they take 5 (of 12) more points

Tottenham have more than 10% chance, if they take 2 (of 12) more points

Tottenham have more than 5% chance, if they take 1 (of 12) more points

Chelsea have more than 10% chance, if they take 9 (of 9) more points

Chelsea have more than 5% chance, if they take 7 (of 9) more points

Chelsea have more than 1% chance, if they take 6 (of 9) more points

Chelsea have chance, if they take 3 (of 9) more points

CL: Semi-finals 1st leg

After 1st leg obviously Liverpool and Real Madrid are favourites to reach final with 85-90%.

Team	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	87%	59%
Liverpool	89%	30%
Bayern	13%	8%
Roma	11%	4%

Predicted chance of possible finals:

Liverpool	- Real Madrid	77%
Liverpool	- Bayern	12%
Roma	- Real Madrid	10%
Roma	- Bayern	1%

CL: predictions Bayern vs Real

Our model predict Bayern have a 38% chance to win against Real Madrid and reach the final. A win or scoreless draw would increase their chances, while the most likely result, 1-1 (11%), would mean their chances decrease from 38% to 32%.

Chance	Team				Team	Chance	(probability)
96%	Bayern	4	-	0	Real Madrid	4%	(1%)
90%	Bayern	3	-	0	Real Madrid	10%	(3%)
85%	Bayern	4	-	1	Real Madrid	15%	(2%)
78%	Bayern	2	-	0	Real Madrid	22%	(6%)
71%	Bayern	3	-	1	Real Madrid	29%	(5%)
67%	Bayern	4	-	2	Real Madrid	33%	(1%)
61%	Bayern	1	-	0	Real Madrid	39%	(8%)
51%	Bayern	2	-	1	Real Madrid	49%	(9%)
45%	Bayern	3	-	2	Real Madrid	55%	(3%)
40%	Bayern	0	-	0	Real Madrid	60%	(5%)
32%	Bayern	1	-	1	Real Madrid	68%	(11%)
25%	Bayern	2	-	2	Real Madrid	75%	(6%)
22%	Bayern	3	-	3	Real Madrid	78%	(2%)
18%	Bayern	0	-	1	Real Madrid	82%	(7%)
13%	Bayern	1	-	2	Real Madrid	87%	(8%)
9%	Bayern	2	-	3	Real Madrid	91%	(3%)
6%	Bayern	0	-	2	Real Madrid	94%	(5%)
4%	Bayern	1	-	3	Real Madrid	96%	(4%)
2%	Bayern	0	-	3	Real Madrid	98%	(2%)
1%	Bayern	1	-	4	Real Madrid	99%	(1%)

CL: predictions Liverpool vs Roma

Our model predicts Liverpool have 52% chance against Roma. The table below shows the teams' chances given different results, and the right column the probability that result happens. If Roma win or draw they have increased their chances. A 0-0 draw would, for example, increase Roma's chances from 48% to 50%. While a 2-1 victory for Liverpool would increase their chances from 52% to 61%.

Chance	Team				Team	Chance	(probability)
98%	Liverpool	4	-	0	Roma	2%	(2%)
97%	Liverpool	5	-	1	Roma	3%	(1%)
94%	Liverpool	3	-	0	Roma	6%	(5%)
91%	Liverpool	4	-	1	Roma	9%	(3%)
85%	Liverpool	2	-	0	Roma	15%	(8%)
79%	Liverpool	3	-	1	Roma	21%	(6%)
75%	Liverpool	4	-	2	Roma	25%	(2%)
70%	Liverpool	1	-	0	Roma	30%	(9%)
61%	Liverpool	2	-	1	Roma	39%	(10%)
55%	Liverpool	3	-	2	Roma	45%	(4%)
50%	Liverpool	0	-	0	Roma	50%	(5%)
42%	Liverpool	1	-	1	Roma	58%	(11%)
33%	Liverpool	2	-	2	Roma	67%	(6%)
30%	Liverpool	3	-	3	Roma	70%	(1%)
26%	Liverpool	0	-	1	Roma	74%	(6%)
19%	Liverpool	1	-	2	Roma	81%	(7%)
14%	Liverpool	2	-	3	Roma	86%	(2%)
10%	Liverpool	0	-	2	Roma	90%	(4%)
7%	Liverpool	1	-	3	Roma	93%	(3%)
3%	Liverpool	0	-	3	Roma	97%	(2%)

PL

In our predictions (taking remaining schedule into account), Chelsea are now trailing 5.3 points behind Liverpool and 3.9 points behind Tottenham. Chelsea probably need at least 10 of 12 points to have a chance. Man United need another win to clinch top 4; Tottenham need 8 points, and Liverpool need 5 of 9 points.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	99.3	108-28	100	100
Man United	82.2	73-30	0	100
Tottenham	77	75-34	0	96.7
Liverpool	76.7	86-40	0	96.2
Chelsea	71.4	68-38	0	7.11
Arsenal	63.4	72-51	0	0.0003

Man United have clinched CL, if they take 3 (of 12) more points

Man United have more than 99.9% chance, if they take 2 (of 12) more points

Man United have more than 95% chance, if they take 1 (of 12) more points

Tottenham have clinched CL, if they take 8 (of 12) more points

Tottenham have more than 95% chance, if they take 7 (of 12) more points

Tottenham have more than 50% chance, if they take 4 (of 12) more points

Liverpool have clinched CL, if they take 5 (of 9) more points

Liverpool have more than 99% chance, if they take 4 (of 9) more points

Liverpool have more than 50% chance, if they take 2 (of 9) more points

Chelsea have more than 10% chance, if they take 12 (of 12) more points

Chelsea have more than 5% chance, if they take 10 (of 12) more points

Chelsea have more than 1% chance, if they take 9 (of 12) more points

Chelsea have chance, if they take 6 (of 12) more points

PL: City champions 17/18

As United lost against West Bromwich, they can no longer catch City, and City have secured the league title.

Chelsea can still reach top-4 but will need 15 points in last five games together with a collapse from Liverpool or Tottenham. Liverpool only need 6 more points in last four games to theoretically clinch top-4, while 5p will likely suffice. Tottenham need 9 more points in last five matches, while 8p will likely suffice.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	98.9	106-29	100	100
Man United	81.1	73-31	0	99.8
Liverpool	77.6	86-39	0	98.3
Tottenham	78	76-34	0	98.6
Chelsea	70.1	67-38	0	3.32
Arsenal	62.7	71-51	0	0.0005

Man United have clinched CL, if they take 5 (of 15) more points

Man United have more than 95% chance, if they take 4 (of 15) more points

Man United have more than 90% chance, if they take 3 (of 15) more points

Liverpool have clinched CL, if they take 6 (of 12) more points

Liverpool have more than 99% chance, if they take 5 (of 12) more points

Liverpool have more than 50% chance, if they take 2 (of 12) more points

Tottenham have clinched CL, if they take 9 (of 15) more points

Tottenham have more than 95% chance, if they take 8 (of 15) more points

Tottenham have more than 90% chance, if they take 7 (of 15) more points

Tottenham have more than 50% chance, if they take 3 (of 15) more points

Chelsea have more than 10% chance, if they take 15 (of 15) more points

Chelsea have more than 1% chance, if they take 12 (of 15) more points

Chelsea have chance, if they take 8 (of 15) more points

Arsenal have chance, if they take 15 (of 15) more points

CL: Final Four

Below are the predictions for the last four teams. Real Madrid are favourites followed by Bayern.

Team	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	68%	34%
Bayern	54%	27%
Liverpool	40%	20%
Roma	38%	19%

CL: Miracle in Rome

Roma managed to turn around a three-goal deficit against favourites Barcelona. That makes Real Madrid (34%) and Bayern (25%) favourites to win the tournament.

Team	Semi	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	98%	68%	34%
Bayern	91%	49%	25%
Liverpool	100%	41%	20%
Roma	100%	38%	19%
Sevilla	9%	3%	1%
Juventus	2%	1%	<1%

PL: Man U postponed City's title party

City missed the opportunity to celebrate the league title when local rivalries, Man United, were invited for the party. Chelsea's chance for CL ticket seems more and more theoretical. Man United only need two more wins to secure their top-4. Liverpool and Tottenham only need 3 more wins to be sure to clinch top-4.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	97.2	105-29	100	100
Man United	83.6	76-31	0.008	100
Liverpool	76.9	85-40	0	97.8
Tottenham	79.5	77-33	0	99.6
Chelsea	68.9	66-37	0	2.6
Arsenal	64.5	72-50	0	0.0326

Man United have clinched CL, if they take 6 (of 18) more points

Man United have more than 99.9% chance, if they take 5 (of 18) more points

Man United have more than 95% chance, if they take 3 (of 18) more points

Liverpool have clinched CL, if they take 9 (of 15) more points

Liverpool have more than 99% chance, if they take 8 (of 15) more points

Liverpool have more than 90% chance, if they take 6 (of 15) more points

Liverpool have more than 50% chance, if they take 3 (of 15) more points

Liverpool have more than 10% chance, if they take 1 (of 15) more points

Tottenham have clinched CL, if they take 9 (of 18) more points

Tottenham have more than 99% chance, if they take 8 (of 18) more points

Tottenham have more than 95% chance, if they take 7 (of 18) more points

Tottenham have more than 90% chance, if they take 6 (of 18) more points

Tottenham have more than 50% chance, if they take 3 (of 18) more points

Chelsea have more than 10% chance, if they take 18 (of 18) more points

Chelsea have more than 5% chance, if they take 16 (of 18) more points

Chelsea have more than 1% chance, if they take 14 (of 18) more points

Chelsea have chance, if they take 11 (of 18) more points

Arsenal have more than 1% chance, if they take 18 (of 18) more points

Arsenal have chance, if they take 15 (of 18) more points

CL: Quarter-finals - leg 1

All four quarter-finals are more less decided after first leg. Our model predicts Man City have the best chance to come back, giving them 11%.

Team	Semi	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	98%	60%	30%
Barcelona	96%	59%	29%
Bayern	91%	42%	21%
Liverpool	89%	30%	15%
Man City	11%	5%	3%
Sevilla	9%	2%	1%
Roma	4%	1%	<1%
Juventus	2%	<1%	<1%

CL: Quarter-finals - match day 1

Juventus lost 0-3 at home against Real Madrid, virtually knocking them out, reducing their chance from 37% to 2% reaching semi-finals.

Sevilla lost 1-2 against Bayern reducing their chance from 26% to 9%.

Team	Semi	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	98%	60%	30%
Barcelona	74%	44%	22%
Bayern	91%	41%	21%
Man City	64%	31%	15%
Liverpool	36%	13%	6%
Roma	26%	9%	5%
Sevilla	9%	2%	1%
Juventus	2%	<1%	<1%

PL: Tottenham won against Chelsea

Tottenham won the important match against Chelsea. Chelsea still have a chance to finish top 4, but they will need almost a perfect finish of the season. The also need that one of the top 4 teams start losing matches. Man United almost certainly finish top 4, if they take 8p in remaining 7 matches. Tottenham almost certainly finish top 4, if they take 11p in remaining 7 matches. Liverpool almost certainly finish top 4, if they take 9p in remaining 6 matches.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	99.1	105-28	100	100
Man United	81.5	74-31	0.0018	99.5
Liverpool	77.6	87-40	0	95.7
Tottenham	78.4	77-33	0	97.1
Chelsea	70.4	68-37	0	7.62
Arsenal	63.7	71-49	0	0.0409

Man United have clinched CL, if they take 10 (of 21) more points

Man United have more than 99% chance, if they take 9 (of 21) more points

Man United have more than 95% chance, if they take 8 (of 21) more points

Man United have more than 90% chance, if they take 7 (of 21) more points

Man United have more than 50% chance, if they take 3 (of 21) more points

Man United have more than 10% chance, if they take 1 (of 21) more points

Liverpool have clinched CL, if they take 12 (of 18) more points

Liverpool have more than 99.9% chance, if they take 11 (of 18) more points

Liverpool have more than 95% chance, if they take 9 (of 18) more points

Liverpool have more than 50% chance, if they take 5 (of 18) more points

Liverpool have more than 10% chance, if they take 2 (of 18) more points

Liverpool have more than 5% chance, if they take 1 (of 18) more points

Tottenham have clinched CL, if they take 14 (of 21) more points

Tottenham have more than 99% chance, if they take 13 (of 21) more points

Tottenham have more than 95% chance, if they take 11 (of 21) more points

Tottenham have more than 50% chance, if they take 7 (of 21) more points

Tottenham have more than 10% chance, if they take 3 (of 21) more points

Chelsea have more than 50% chance, if they take 21 (of 21) more points

Chelsea have more than 10% chance, if they take 18 (of 21) more points

Chelsea have more than 5% chance, if they take 17 (of 21) more points

Chelsea have more than 1% chance, if they take 15 (of 21) more points

Chelsea have chance, if they take 11 (of 21) more points

Arsenal have more than 1% chance, if they take 21 (of 21) more points

Arsenal have chance, if they take 17 (of 21) more points