in silico soccer: September 2020

Monday, September 28, 2020

PL: Predictions after Matchday 3

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
9	Liverpool	84.4	+51	< 1%	99.98%	99.95%	99.85%	99.56%	69%
3	Man City	78.6	+43	< 1%	99.74%	99.40%	98.6%	96.8%	27%
3	Man United	66.8	+22	< 1%	89%	83%	73%	60%	2.0%
4	Chelsea	62.1	+16	< 1%	74%	63%	49%	34%	< 1%
6	Arsenal	62.0	+15	< 1%	73%	62%	48%	33%	< 1%
9	Leicester	60.5	+13	< 1%	65%	53%	40%	26%	< 1%
4	Tottenham	59.6	+13	< 1%	61%	49%	36%	22%	< 1%
3	Wolves	57.0	+5	< 1%	46%	34%	23%	13%	< 1%
9	Everton	55.2	+1	1.1%	36%	25%	16%	9%	< 1%
3	Southampton	50.2	-6	4.9%	15%	9%	5%	2.3%	< 1%
0	Burnley	48.4	-6	8%	11%	7%	3.5%	1.5%	< 1%
6	Crystal Palace	47.6	-10	9%	8%	4.9%	2.5%	1.0%	< 1%
4	Newcastle	46.2	-12	12%	6%	3.4%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
3	West Ham	45.8	-9	13%	6%	3.1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Sheffield United	43.0	-14	23%	2.7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	Brighton	42.9	-15	24%	2.4%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	Leeds	42.8	-19	25%	2.4%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	Aston Villa	40.5	-23	37%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
1	West Brom	34.5	-33	70%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Fulham	34.1	-32	72%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Tuesday, September 22, 2020

PL: Predictions after Matchday 2

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
6	Liverpool	83.7	+51	< 1%	99.97%	99.92%	99.77%	99.36%	59%
3	Man City	81.0	+48	< 1%	99.88%	99.72%	99.31%	98.3%	38%
0	Man United	65.6	+21	< 1%	86%	78%	68%	53%	1.3%
3	Chelsea	62.9	+16	< 1%	77%	66%	53%	38%	< 1%
6	Arsenal	62.6	+15	< 1%	75%	64%	51%	36%	< 1%
3	Tottenham	60.6	+14	< 1%	67%	55%	41%	27%	< 1%
3	Wolves	58.4	+9	< 1%	55%	42%	30%	18%	< 1%
6	Leicester	58.0	+8	< 1%	52%	40%	28%	17%	< 1%
6	Everton	53.4	-1	1.9%	28%	19%	11%	6%	< 1%
0	Burnley	50.1	-4	5%	16%	10%	6%	2.7%	< 1%
6	Crystal Palace	49.1	-9	6%	12%	7%	4.0%	1.8%	< 1%
0	Southampton	48.2	-7	8%	11%	6%	3.3%	1.4%	< 1%
3	Newcastle	46.0	-13	13%	6%	3.4%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Sheffield United	44.9	-12	16%	4.8%	2.6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
0	West Ham	44.2	-13	19%	4.0%	2.2%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
3	Brighton	43.9	-15	19%	3.5%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	Leeds	40.7	-21	34%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	Aston Villa	40.5	-23	36%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	West Brom	34.5	-33	69%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Fulham	34.1	-32	71%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Monday, September 14, 2020

PL. Predictions after eight matches

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
3	Liverpool	82.3	+49	< 1%	99.94%	99.83%	99.54%	98.8%	57%
0	Man City	79.6	+46	< 1%	99.78%	99.49%	98.8%	97.2%	37%
0	Man United	67.8	+25	< 1%	91%	86%	77%	64%	3.4%
3	Chelsea	64.0	+18	< 1%	81%	71%	59%	43%	1.2%
3	Arsenal	61.6	+15	< 1%	71%	60%	46%	30%	< 1%
3	Wolves	59.5	+10	< 1%	60%	48%	35%	21%	< 1%
0	Tottenham	58.9	+11	< 1%	58%	46%	32%	19%	< 1%
3	Leicester	56.8	+7	< 1%	46%	34%	23%	13%	< 1%
3	Everton	52.4	-3	2.7%	24%	16%	9%	4.5%	< 1%
0	Burnley	51.1	-3	3.9%	20%	13%	7%	3.4%	< 1%
0	Southampton	49.6	-4	5%	15%	9%	5.0%	2.2%	< 1%
3	Newcastle	47.7	-10	9%	10%	6%	2.8%	1.2%	< 1%
3	Crystal Palace	46.7	-12	11%	8%	4.2%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Sheffield United	46.2	-11	12%	7%	3.8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
0	West Ham	45.0	-13	16%	5%	2.8%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Brighton	41.9	-18	28%	2.1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Leeds	39.5	-21	39%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Aston Villa	39.0	-24	43%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	West Brom	35.2	-31	64%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Fulham	35.1	-32	65%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Sunday, September 13, 2020

Premier League

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
3	Liverpool	82.3	+49	< 1%	99.94%	99.85%	99.60%	98.9%	57%
0	Man City	79.6	+46	< 1%	99.80%	99.54%	98.9%	97.4%	37%
0	Man United	67.8	+25	< 1%	91%	86%	78%	66%	3.4%
0	Chelsea	62.6	+16	< 1%	76%	66%	53%	38%	< 1%
3	Arsenal	61.6	+15	< 1%	72%	61%	48%	32%	< 1%
0	Tottenham	59.0	+11	< 1%	59%	47%	34%	21%	< 1%
0	Wolves	57.8	+8	< 1%	53%	41%	29%	17%	< 1%
3	Leicester	56.8	+7	< 1%	48%	36%	24%	14%	< 1%
3	Everton	52.4	-3	2.8%	25%	17%	10%	5%	< 1%
0	Burnley	51.1	-3	4.2%	21%	13%	8%	3.8%	< 1%
0	Southampton	49.7	-4	6%	16%	10%	5%	2.5%	< 1%
3	Newcastle	47.7	-10	9%	10%	6%	3.1%	1.3%	< 1%
0	Sheffield United	47.6	-9	9%	10%	6%	3.3%	1.4%	< 1%
3	Crystal Palace	46.7	-12	11%	8%	4.6%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
0	West Ham	45.0	-13	16%	5%	3.0%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Brighton	43.1	-17	24%	3.3%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Leeds	39.5	-21	40%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Aston Villa	39.0	-24	44%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	West Brom	35.2	-31	66%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Fulham	35.1	-32	66%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Saturday, September 12, 2020

PL: Predictions after gameday 1

Predictions after gameday 1 and four matches.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
3	Liverpool	82.3	+49	< 1%	99.94%	99.85%	99.60%	98.9%	57%
0	Man City	79.6	+46	< 1%	99.82%	99.56%	98.9%	97.4%	38%
0	Man United	67.8	+25	< 1%	92%	86%	78%	65%	3.4%
0	Chelsea	62.6	+16	< 1%	77%	66%	53%	37%	< 1%
3	Arsenal	61.6	+15	< 1%	72%	61%	48%	32%	< 1%
0	Tottenham	60.9	+13	< 1%	69%	58%	44%	29%	< 1%
0	Wolves	57.8	+8	< 1%	54%	41%	29%	17%	< 1%
0	Leicester	55.4	+4	1.2%	41%	29%	19%	10%	< 1%
0	Burnley	51.1	-3	4.3%	21%	14%	8%	3.7%	< 1%
0	Everton	50.3	-4	5%	18%	11%	6%	3.0%	< 1%
0	Southampton	49.6	-4	6%	16%	10%	5%	2.4%	< 1%
3	Newcastle	47.7	-10	9%	10%	6%	3.1%	1.3%	< 1%
0	Sheffield United	47.6	-9	10%	11%	6%	3.2%	1.4%	< 1%
3	Crystal Palace	46.7	-12	12%	8%	4.6%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
0	West Ham	45.0	-13	17%	6%	3.0%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Brighton	43.1	-17	24%	3.4%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Leeds	39.5	-21	41%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Aston Villa	39.0	-24	44%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	West Brom	36.4	-29	59%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Fulham	35.1	-32	66%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Thursday, September 10, 2020

PL Predictions of season 20/21

Table below is based on 1,000,000 simulations of the 20/21 season. It shows the average point won and 95% of the time the team finish with points indicated by 95% CI. The table also shows the probability the team wins the league, top 4 et cetera.

	Average Simulated Season			Chances
Team	Pts	95% CI	GD	Bottom 3	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Champion
1. Liverpool	81.9	(68 - 95)	+50.7	< 1%	99.93%	99.83%	99.55%	98.8%	56%
2. Man City	79.6	(65 - 93)	+46.3	< 1%	99.82%	99.56%	99.0%	97.5%	39%
3. Man United	67.8	(53 - 83)	+24.9	< 1%	92%	87%	79%	66%	3.5%
4. Chelsea	62.6	(47 - 78)	+16.1	< 1%	77%	67%	54%	38%	< 1%
5. Tottenham	61.0	(46 - 76)	+13.3	< 1%	70%	59%	45%	30%	< 1%
6. Arsenal	60.4	(45 - 76)	+12.3	< 1%	67%	55%	42%	27%	< 1%
7. Wolves	57.8	(43 - 73)	+8.1	< 1%	54%	42%	29%	17%	< 1%
8. Leicester	55.4	(40 - 71)	+4.1	1.3%	41%	30%	20%	11%	< 1%
9. Burnley	51.1	(36 - 66)	-3.1	4.4%	21%	14%	8%	3.8%	< 1%
10. Southampton	50.8	(36 - 66)	-3.5	4.6%	21%	13%	8%	3.6%	< 1%
11. Everton	50.2	(35 - 65)	-4.5	5%	18%	12%	7%	3.1%	< 1%
12. Sheffield United	47.6	(33 - 63)	-8.9	10%	11%	6%	3.4%	1.5%	< 1%
13. West Ham	46.7	(32 - 62)	-10.5	12%	9%	5%	2.6%	1.1%	< 1%
14. Newcastle	45.7	(31 - 61)	-12.1	15%	7%	4.0%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
15. Crystal Palace	45.3	(31 - 60)	-12.9	16%	6%	3.5%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
16. Brighton	43.1	(29 - 58)	-16.7	24%	3.5%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17. Leeds	39.8	(26 - 55)	-22.5	40%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18. Aston Villa	39.0	(25 - 54)	-23.9	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19. West Brom	36.4	(23 - 51)	-28.7	60%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20. Fulham	36.1	(22 - 51)	-29.1	61%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

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