PL: Man City win 77% of simulations

Man City win the league in 77% of the simulations and now have a seven-point gap down to Liverpool in average points.

Hot Teams
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Tottenham: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Norwich: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Watford: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Leeds: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 less than expected

Fourth team play CL	99.74%
FA cup winners play EL	9%
League cup winners play ECL	11%

Simulated points for winner: 85 - 91
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
47	Man City	87.0	+61	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
41	Liverpool	80.3	+56	< 1%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.92%	99.41%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	99.49%
42	Chelsea	77.1	+46	< 1%	99.99%	99.92%	99.56%	97.8%	6%	< 1%	1.8%	98.0%
35	Arsenal	65.9	+16	< 1%	95.7%	89%	74%	46%	< 1%	9%	40%	46%
28	Man United	64.5	+14	< 1%	93%	83%	65%	35%	< 1%	10%	43%	38%
28	West Ham	60.0	+15	< 1%	78%	58%	32%	12%	< 1%	18%	36%	22%
30	Tottenham	58.6	+1	< 1%	65%	42%	21%	7%	< 1%	28%	32%	7%
25	Leicester	53.3	-1	< 1%	29%	14%	5%	1.2%	< 1%	11%	33%	1.2%
25	Wolves	50.5	-5	< 1%	14%	6%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	5%	< 1%
22	Aston Villa	48.2	-7	1.5%	8%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.3%	2.5%	< 1%
24	Brighton	47.8	-8	1.5%	7%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%	2.2%	< 1%
23	Crystal Palace	46.1	-5	2.9%	3.9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	1.2%	< 1%
19	Everton	46.0	-12	3.9%	4.0%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	1.3%	< 1%
21	Southampton	43.4	-15	8%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Leeds	43.2	-20	10%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Brentford	43.0	-14	9%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Burnley	37.4	-16	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Watford	36.2	-24	49%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Newcastle	31.6	-33	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Norwich	27.8	-49	95%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brentford	17%	20%	63%	Man City
Everton	56%	22%	22%	Newcastle
Man United	69%	18%	14%	Burnley
Arsenal	32%	24%	44%	Man City
Leicester	64%	19%	16%	Norwich
Watford	38%	24%	38%	Tottenham
Crystal Palace	37%	24%	39%	West Ham
Everton	51%	23%	26%	Brighton
Leeds	55%	22%	23%	Burnley
Southampton	52%	23%	25%	Newcastle
Brentford	43%	24%	33%	Aston Villa
Chelsea	45%	24%	31%	Liverpool
Man United	64%	19%	16%	Wolves

 

PL: Arsenal up in top-4 in expected points

Tottenham, City and Arsenalkeep going strong. Arsenal are now top 4 in expected points and have passed Man United with 0.7 points.

Hot Teams
Tottenham: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Norwich: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.9 less than expected
West Ham: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected

There is a 1 in 400 chance that two English teams outside top-4 win both CL and EL meaning 4th team in PL misses out on CL. There is a 9 in 100 chance that FA cup winners are not already qualified for CL and thereby will play EL. There is a 10 in 100 chance that the league cup winners are not already qualified for CL or EL and thereby will play ECL.

Fourth team play CL	99.75%
FA cup winners play EL	9%
League cup winners play ECL	10%

Simulated points for winner: 86 - 91
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
47	Man City	87.0	+61	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
41	Liverpool	82.1	+58	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	99.65%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	99.70%
41	Chelsea	78.4	+47	< 1%	>99.99%	99.96%	99.75%	98.4%	8%	< 1%	1.3%	98.6%
35	Arsenal	65.9	+16	< 1%	96.4%	90%	75%	45%	< 1%	9%	43%	45%
27	Man United	65.2	+15	< 1%	95%	87%	71%	40%	< 1%	9%	43%	42%
29	Tottenham	58.9	+0	< 1%	70%	48%	23%	8%	< 1%	27%	36%	8%
25	West Ham	58.6	+12	< 1%	72%	50%	24%	8%	< 1%	20%	33%	18%
22	Leicester	51.3	-3	< 1%	21%	9%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	29%	< 1%
25	Wolves	50.5	-5	< 1%	16%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	6%	< 1%
22	Aston Villa	48.2	-7	1.7%	9%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	2.9%	< 1%
23	Brighton	47.3	-9	2.3%	7%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.0%	2.2%	< 1%
19	Everton	46.0	-12	4.3%	4.8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	1.4%	< 1%
20	Crystal Palace	45.1	-7	5%	3.5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	1.0%	< 1%
20	Southampton	43.9	-15	8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Leeds	43.2	-20	11%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Brentford	43.0	-14	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Burnley	37.4	-16	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Watford	37.3	-21	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Newcastle	31.6	-34	82%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Norwich	28.5	-47	93%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Newcastle	27%	23%	49%	Man United
Southampton	41%	24%	35%	Tottenham
Watford	31%	24%	45%	West Ham
Crystal Palace	60%	21%	19%	Norwich
Leicester	25%	23%	52%	Liverpool
Chelsea	73%	16%	11%	Brighton
Brentford	17%	20%	63%	Man City
Everton	56%	22%	22%	Newcastle
Man United	69%	18%	14%	Burnley

 

PL: City building a gap

Both Chelsea and Liverpool drew and City are building a gap down to competitors. City are winning the title in 66% of the simulations. Tottenham are up as hot team after a point against Liverpool and 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3 more than expected.

Hot Teams
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 more than expected
Aston Villa: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 more than expected
Tottenham: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected

Cold Teams
Norwich: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Brighton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected

Likely combination of teams in CL

Probability	Teams
34.4%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
27.9%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
14.4%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
6.7%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham
5%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Simulated points for winner: 85 - 91
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
44	Man City	86.4	+60	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	66%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%
41	Liverpool	82.1	+58	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	99.68%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	99.73%
38	Chelsea	77.2	+46	< 1%	99.99%	99.90%	99.44%	97.4%	7%	< 1%	2.0%	97.7%
27	Man United	65.2	+15	< 1%	94%	86%	70%	42%	< 1%	11%	37%	45%
32	Arsenal	64.6	+12	< 1%	93%	84%	65%	36%	< 1%	13%	42%	36%
25	West Ham	60.7	+14	< 1%	82%	64%	38%	16%	< 1%	18%	34%	28%
26	Tottenham	57.7	-2	< 1%	61%	38%	19%	7%	< 1%	20%	34%	6%
22	Leicester	51.8	-2	< 1%	23%	10%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	26%	< 1%
25	Wolves	50.5	-5	< 1%	15%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	6%	< 1%
22	Aston Villa	49.2	-5	1.2%	12%	4.6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	3.9%	< 1%
20	Brighton	46.1	-11	3.9%	4.8%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	2.1%	< 1%
19	Everton	46.0	-12	4.2%	4.5%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	2.5%	< 1%
20	Crystal Palace	46.0	-5	3.9%	5%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	2.4%	< 1%
20	Brentford	44.0	-13	8%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	1.3%	< 1%
16	Leeds	43.2	-20	11%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Southampton	41.5	-18	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Burnley	37.4	-16	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Watford	37.4	-21	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Newcastle	31.6	-34	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Norwich	29.6	-43	90%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

PL: City, Pool & Villa remain the teams that take more points than expected.

Man City, Liverpool, and Aston Villa remain the teams that take more points than expected.

 Hot Teams
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 more than expected
Aston Villa: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Norwich: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Brighton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected

Likely combination of teams in CL

Probability	Teams
38.1%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
22%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
16.4%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
7.3%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham
5.9%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Simulated points for winner: 85 - 91
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
41	Man City	85.5	+57	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.93%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	99.95%
40	Liverpool	82.9	+58	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.78%	34%	< 1%	< 1%	99.81%
37	Chelsea	77.9	+47	< 1%	99.98%	99.92%	99.59%	98.2%	9%	< 1%	1.5%	98.3%
27	Man United	65.2	+15	< 1%	95%	87%	72%	46%	< 1%	10%	35%	48%
29	Arsenal	63.0	+9	< 1%	89%	77%	56%	28%	< 1%	15%	43%	28%
25	West Ham	60.7	+14	< 1%	82%	65%	41%	18%	< 1%	17%	34%	30%
25	Tottenham	57.7	-2	< 1%	61%	39%	21%	8%	< 1%	19%	34%	8%
22	Leicester	51.8	-2	< 1%	24%	11%	4.3%	1.1%	< 1%	10%	26%	1.1%
24	Wolves	50.5	-6	< 1%	16%	7%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	7%	< 1%
22	Aston Villa	49.2	-5	1.3%	12%	5%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	4.2%	< 1%
20	Brighton	46.1	-11	4.2%	4.9%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	2.2%	< 1%
20	Crystal Palace	46.0	-5	4.2%	5%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	2.6%	< 1%
19	Everton	46.0	-12	4.6%	4.7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	2.6%	< 1%
16	Leeds	44.5	-17	8%	3.0%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	1.4%	< 1%
20	Brentford	44.0	-13	8%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	1.4%	< 1%
17	Southampton	41.5	-17	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Burnley	37.4	-16	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Watford	37.4	-21	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Newcastle	32.3	-31	78%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Norwich	29.6	-43	90%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Aston Villa	54%	22%	24%	Burnley
Leeds	37%	24%	39%	Arsenal
Wolves	26%	23%	51%	Chelsea
Newcastle	16%	19%	64%	Man City
Tottenham	26%	23%	51%	Liverpool

PL: Liverpool hottest team in the league

 Both Liverpool and Man City have won the last five matches.

Hot Teams
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Aston Villa: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Southampton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Brighton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected

Likely combination of teams in CL

Probability	Teams
38.5%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
21.7%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
17.4%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
7.6%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham
6%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Simulated points for winner: 85 - 90
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
38	Man City	85.0	+52	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.90%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	99.92%
37	Liverpool	82.4	+59	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.95%	99.69%	33%	< 1%	< 1%	99.74%
36	Chelsea	79.3	+48	< 1%	>99.99%	99.95%	99.76%	98.8%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	98.9%
27	Man United	65.2	+15	< 1%	95%	88%	72%	46%	< 1%	10%	35%	49%
26	Arsenal	61.8	+8	< 1%	85%	70%	47%	22%	< 1%	17%	43%	22%
25	West Ham	61.7	+16	< 1%	86%	72%	50%	24%	< 1%	15%	35%	34%
25	Tottenham	57.7	-2	< 1%	62%	40%	21%	8%	< 1%	19%	35%	8%
22	Leicester	51.8	-2	< 1%	25%	12%	4.4%	1.1%	< 1%	11%	26%	1.1%
21	Wolves	48.7	-7	1.8%	11%	4.6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	5.0%	< 1%
20	Brighton	47.8	-9	2.7%	9%	3.6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	3.5%	< 1%
19	Aston Villa	47.6	-7	3.0%	9%	3.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.8%	3.0%	< 1%
19	Crystal Palace	46.8	-4	3.8%	7%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%	3.2%	< 1%
18	Everton	45.5	-13	6%	4.3%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	2.5%	< 1%
16	Leeds	45.0	-12	7%	4.0%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	1.7%	< 1%
20	Brentford	44.0	-13	9%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	1.4%	< 1%
16	Southampton	41.5	-18	19%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Burnley	37.4	-16	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Watford	37.4	-21	43%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Newcastle	32.6	-31	77%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Norwich	30.9	-41	86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brentford	28%	24%	48%	Man United
Norwich	37%	24%	39%	Aston Villa
Man City	76%	14%	9%	Leeds
Burnley	51%	23%	26%	Watford
Brighton	47%	24%	29%	Wolves
Crystal Palace	52%	23%	25%	Southampton
Arsenal	51%	23%	26%	West Ham
Leicester	49%	23%	28%	Tottenham
Chelsea	72%	16%	11%	Everton
Liverpool	80%	12%	7%	Newcastle

 

ECL: Leicester favorites in the knockout stage

Group winners Roma, Rennes and Feyernord all have more than 10%, but Leicester win most of the simulations although they need to play another round.

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
	Leicester			100%	80%	57%	41%	28%	17%
C	Roma	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	66%	41%	24%	13%
G	Rennes	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	65%	40%	23%	12%
E	Feyenoord	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	65%	39%	22%	11%
	PSV			100%	74%	50%	32%	19%	10%
G	Tottenham	57%	< 1%	57%	42%	30%	21%	14%	9%
D	Alkmaar	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	57%	28%	13%	6%
	Marseille			100%	66%	38%	20%	10%	4.7%
E	Slavia Praha	100%	< 1%	100%	58%	32%	17%	8%	4.0%
F	FC Kobenhavn	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	45%	19%	7%	2.6%
H	Basel	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	43%	16%	5%	1.9%
C	Bodoe Glimt	100%	< 1%	100%	49%	23%	10%	4.0%	1.6%
B	Gent	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	40%	13%	4.1%	1.3%
	Midtjylland			100%	53%	22%	8%	3.0%	1.1%
B	Partizan	100%	< 1%	100%	45%	19%	8%	2.7%	1.0%
A	LASK	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	36%	11%	3.1%	< 1%
	Celtic			100%	50%	19%	7%	2.2%	< 1%
	Sparta Praha			100%	49%	18%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
	Rapid Wien			100%	46%	15%	4.8%	1.4%	< 1%
	Fenerbahce			100%	45%	15%	4.8%	1.3%	< 1%
G	Vitesse	43%	< 1%	43%	18%	8%	3.1%	1.1%	< 1%
F	PAOK	100%	< 1%	100%	36%	12%	3.8%	1.0%	< 1%
H	Karabakh Agdam	100%	< 1%	100%	32%	10%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
A	M Tel Aviv	100%	< 1%	100%	32%	10%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Randers	100%	< 1%	100%	26%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%