PL: Forest deducted 4 points and risk relegation (37%)

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
63	Man City	85.0	+49	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.98%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
64	Liverpool	83.9	+49	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.96%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
64	Arsenal	82.6	+54	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.91%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%
56	Aston Villa	69.4	+19	< 1%	99.82%	99.0%	92%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	86%
53	Tottenham	68.4	+20	< 1%	99.50%	97.8%	88%	42%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	80%
47	Man United	62.1	+2	< 1%	83%	64%	15%	3.2%	< 1%	10%	68%	13%
40	Newcastle	55.9	+14	< 1%	33%	12%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	21%	25%	1.4%
39	Chelsea	55.5	+4	< 1%	27%	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	31%	1.2%
44	West Ham	55.4	-6	< 1%	20%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	15%	5%
42	Brighton	55.2	+5	< 1%	24%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	18%	< 1%
41	Wolves	54.0	-4	< 1%	12%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	9%	< 1%
38	Fulham	49.1	-3	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	1.0%	< 1%
35	Bournemouth	46.7	-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	Crystal Palace	40.0	-20	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Brentford	38.8	-12	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Everton	38.5	-11	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Forest	31.5	-19	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Luton	29.8	-27	67%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Burnley	25.9	-40	92%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Sheffield United	22.6	-60	98.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

 Most likely combo of teams being relegated

58%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
29%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
7%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United
1.9%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
1.5%	Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United
1.4%	Burnley, Forest, Luton

PL: 29% chance that the FA-cup winner plays in the Europa League.

The FA-cup winners end up playing CL in 71% of our simulations. In most cases (68%) that is Man City, as the other teams have smaller chances to qualify for CL. The sixth team is Man United in 49% of the simulations and they end up in EL in 68% of the simulations, either via the FA-cup or the league position.

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	84%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	71%
League cup winners	100%	100%	>99.99%
Sixth team	100%	97.1%	< 1%
Seventh team	98.0%	74%	< 1%
Eighth team	77%	5%	< 1%

The current top-5 qualify for CL in 63% of the simulations. In 16% Tottenham or Aston Villa are missing out due to PL missing out on the extra CL spot. Only team against is Man United joining the top-3 and one of Aston Villa or Tottenham. West Ham can qualify through the EL adventure, but less likely.

Most likely combo of teams in CL

63%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
7%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
4.7%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham
3.9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham

It's starting to look more and more, 79% now, that the three new teams from the Championship will play in the Championship next year again.

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

79%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
10%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
3.1%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
2.6%	Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United
2.2%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United
1.5%	Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United

 Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	88%	47%	9%		31%	9%
Liverpool	100%	56%	11%
Arsenal	34%	3.1%
Aston Villa	37%	< 1%
Tottenham	< 1%
Man United	19%
Chelsea	11%
West Ham	4.9%

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
63	Man City	85.0	+49	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.98%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
64	Liverpool	83.9	+49	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.96%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
64	Arsenal	82.6	+54	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.91%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%
56	Aston Villa	69.4	+19	< 1%	99.82%	99.0%	92%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	86%
53	Tottenham	68.4	+20	< 1%	99.50%	97.8%	88%	42%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	80%
47	Man United	62.1	+2	< 1%	83%	64%	15%	3.2%	< 1%	10%	68%	13%
40	Newcastle	55.9	+14	< 1%	33%	12%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	21%	25%	1.4%
39	Chelsea	55.5	+4	< 1%	27%	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	31%	1.2%
44	West Ham	55.4	-6	< 1%	20%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	15%	5%
42	Brighton	55.2	+5	< 1%	24%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	18%	< 1%
41	Wolves	54.0	-4	< 1%	12%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	9%	< 1%
38	Fulham	49.1	-3	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	1.0%	< 1%
35	Bournemouth	46.7	-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	Crystal Palace	40.0	-20	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Brentford	38.8	-12	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Everton	38.5	-11	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Forest	35.5	-19	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Luton	29.8	-27	82%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Burnley	25.9	-40	96.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Sheffield United	22.6	-60	99.45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

 

CL/EL/ECL: Quarterfinals draw - and how it affects the CL bonus spot

 

Champions League

The chances were reduced for the four favourites, Man City, Arsenal, Real Madrid and Bayern. In particular for Real Madrid their chances to reach the semis jumped down from 60% to 36%. Paris are favourites on the other half with a 29% probability to reach the final.

Team	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Man City	64% (-11)	42% (-10)	30% (-4)
Arsenal	53% (-3)	21% (-7)	13% (-2)
Real Madrid	36% (-24)	20% (-14)	12% (-5)
Paris SG	53% (+9)	29% (+11)	11% (+4)
Bayern	47% (-5)	17% (-8)	10% (-1)
Atletico	52% (+13)	25% (+11)	8% (+3)
Barcelona	47% (+7)	24% (+9)	8% (+3)
Dortmund	48% (+12)	22% (+10)	7% (+3)

 Europa League

The draw for EL was not as skewed as the CL draw. Atalanta drew to short straw getting Liverpool and Benifica got Marseille the draw did not affect the Champion probabilities that much.

Team	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Liverpool	73% (-1)	57% (+3)	36%
Leverkusen	68% (+6)	41% (+5)	21% (+2)
Milan	59% (+5)	29% (+2)	13%
Benfica	61%(+15)	20%	9% (+1)
Atalanta	27% (-20)	15% (-5)	7% (-2)
Roma	41% (-2)	17%	6% (-1)
West Ham	32% (-9)	13% (-2)	4.9% (-1)
Marseille	39% (+6)	9% (-1)	3.2% (-0.1)

 Europa Conference League

Aston Villa and Lille got tough draws playing each other, whereas Fiorentina and Brugge got advantageous draws.

Team	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Aston Villa	69% (-9)	55% (-4)	37% (-4)
Fiorentina	76% (+14)	50% (+15)	23% (+6)
Brugge	64% (+14)	28% (+6)	11% (+2)
Lille	31% (-27)	19% (-11)	10% (-4)
Fenerbahce	66% (+15)	20% (-3)	10%
PAOK	36% (+2)	11% (+1)	3.3% (+0.1)
Viktoria Plzen	24% (-9)	10%	2.8% (-0.1)
Olympiakos	34% (-1)	6% (-4)	2.4% (-0.5)

 

The key for Germanu now s that Bayern beat Arsenal and advance to the semis. Likewise for England, if Arsenal beat Bayern, they have very good chances.

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ITA	96.9%	20.21	18.57	22.71
ENG	84%	19.8	16.63	23
GER	19%	18.31	16.5	21.36
FRA	< 1%	16.06	14.42	20.08
ESP	< 1%	16.18	14.81	18.19

Important factors
GER 34% if Bayern reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 5.7%
ENG 95% if Arsenal reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 71%
GER 52% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 12%
GER 26% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 3%
GER 33% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 9%
ENG 97% if West Ham reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 78%
GER 55% if Bayern wins the Champions League; otherwise 15%
GER 39% if Leverkusen wins the Europa League; otherwise 13%
ENG 94% if Man City reaches the CL final; otherwise 77%
ENG 91% if Liverpool reaches the EL final; otherwise 75%

EL/ECL: Probabilities of last eight

Probabilities of last eight in EL and ECL.

Europa League

Team	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Liverpool	74%	54%	36%
Leverkusen	62%	36%	19%
Milan	54%	27%	13%
Atalanta	47%	20%	9%
Benfica	46%	20%	8%
Roma	43%	17%	7%
West Ham	41%	15%	6%
Marseille	33%	10%	3.3%

Europa Conference League

Team	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Aston Villa	78%	59%	41%
Fiorentina	62%	35%	17%
Lille	58%	30%	14%
Fenerbahce	51%	23%	10%
Brugge	50%	22%	9%
Olympiakos	35%	10%	3.2%
PAOK	34%	10%	3.2%
Viktoria Plzen	33%	10%	2.9%

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ITA	95%	20.16	17.86	23.43
ENG	92%	20.09	16.63	23.38
GER	13%	18.2	16.5	21.36
FRA	< 1%	16.16	14.42	20.08
ESP	< 1%	16.17	14.81	18.19

Important factors
GER 27% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 5%
GER 20% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 2.1%
GER 29% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 7.8%
GER 32% if Leverkusen wins the Europa League; otherwise 8.6%
GER 21% if Bayern reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 5.1%
ENG 97% if Liverpool reaches the EL final; otherwise 85%
GER 36% if Bayern wins the Champions League; otherwise 10%
ENG 97% if Man City reaches the CL final; otherwise 86%
GER 23% if Dortmund reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 7.8%
ENG 95% if Man City reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 82%

 

 

 

CL: Predictions of quarterfinal prior to the draw.

 It looks like avry tight group of final eight teams. No team reaches the semifinals in less than a third of the simulations. Man City are standing out as favorites, but the other seven teams are predicted between 36% and 60%

Champions League

Team	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Man City	73%	52%	34%
Real Madrid	60%	34%	17%
Arsenal	56%	30%	15%
Bayern	52%	25%	11%
Paris SG	44%	18%	7%
Barcelona	40%	15%	5%
Atletico	39%	14%	5%
Dortmund	36%	12%	4.3%

 

In the race for extra CL spot, nothing much happened. Germany increased their chances slightly and Italy decreased their chances slightly.

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ITA	87%	19.83	16.71	23.71
ENG	77%	19.48	15.75	23.5
GER	34%	18.44	16.07	22.64
FRA	1.6%	16.44	14.08	20.58
CZE	< 1%	14.45	13.25	20.25
ESP	< 1%	16.08	14.56	19.31

Important factors
GER 59% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 22%
GER 49% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 16%
GER 47% if Freiburg reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 20%
GER 64% if Leverkusen wins the Europa League; otherwise 28%
ENG 86% if Aston Villa reaches the ECL semifinals; otherwise 60%
ENG 88% if Aston Villa reaches the ECL final; otherwise 66%
ENG 89% if West Ham reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 66%
ENG 87% if Liverpool reaches the EL final; otherwise 64%
ENG 83% if Liverpool reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 57%
GER 55% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 27%

CL: And so they were ten

Ten teams left in CL and the updated probabilities are displayed below. In the race for CL bonus slot, England increased their chances to 79% though Arsenal's win and qualifying for the quarterfinals. They are now down to six countries that have a theoretical chance, but the Spanish, Czech and French chances are very slim and probably requiring winning everything left to win.

Champions League

Team	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Man City	100%	71%	50%	32%
Real Madrid	100%	58%	31%	16%
Arsenal	100%	55%	28%	14%
Inter	74%	43%	24%	12%
Bayern	100%	50%	23%	10%
Paris SG	100%	42%	17%	7%
Barcelona	100%	38%	13%	4.9%
Dortmund	65%	22%	7%	2.5%
Atletico	26%	10%	3.7%	1.3%
PSV	35%	11%	3.2%	1.0%

 

 

Important factors
GER 43% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 14%
GER 35% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 10%
GER 35% if Freiburg reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 12%
ENG 91% if West Ham reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 69%
ENG 87% if Aston Villa reaches the ECL semifinals; otherwise 64%
GER 48% if Leverkusen wins the Europa League; otherwise 19%
ENG 89% if Aston Villa reaches the ECL final; otherwise 69%
ENG 88% if Liverpool reaches the EL final; otherwise 67%
GER 44% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 18%
GER 48% if Freiburg reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 19%

Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ITA	95.1%	20.59	16.71	25.57
ENG	79%	19.43	15.63	23.88
GER	24%	18.11	15.64	22.64
FRA	1.6%	16.41	14.08	20.58
CZE	< 1%	14.45	13.25	20.5
ESP	< 1%	15.53	14.19	19.31

PL: Luton vs Forest in crucial match for the relegation race.

Luton host Forest in a must-win match. Luton only have 12% on new contract if they lose, compared with 42% if they win.

The three top teams have virtually (>99.9%) clinched a place in the CL. The next two teams, Aston Villa and Tottenham, have virtually (>99.9%) clinched a place in the EL. Behind them we have Man United chasing a EL (65%) or even CL (10%).

Hot Teams
Arsenal: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Fulham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Man United: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 more than expected
Tottenham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Luton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Brentford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Everton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Burnley: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
63	Man City	85.0	+49	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.96%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
64	Liverpool	83.8	+49	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.92%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
64	Arsenal	82.6	+54	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.82%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	99.95%
53	Tottenham	69.8	+23	< 1%	99.73%	98.7%	92%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	80%
55	Aston Villa	69.7	+19	< 1%	99.74%	98.7%	92%	46%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	79%
47	Man United	62.1	+2	< 1%	82%	63%	13%	2.3%	< 1%	14%	65%	10%
40	Newcastle	55.9	+14	< 1%	32%	11%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	26%	< 1%
43	West Ham	55.8	-6	< 1%	24%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	16%	3.7%
39	Chelsea	55.5	+4	< 1%	26%	10%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	23%	< 1%
42	Brighton	55.2	+5	< 1%	23%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	17%	< 1%
41	Wolves	54.0	-4	< 1%	12%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	13%	< 1%
35	Fulham	47.4	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	Bournemouth	45.7	-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Brentford	40.2	-11	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	Crystal Palace	40.0	-20	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Everton	38.5	-11	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	Forest	35.7	-20	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Luton	31.1	-27	72%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Burnley	24.3	-41	98.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Sheffield United	22.6	-60	99.60%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	85%	43%	9%		26%	9%
Liverpool	100%	66%	21%	2.5%	6%
Arsenal	30%	1.9%
Tottenham	< 1%
Aston Villa	35%	< 1%
Man United	7%
Newcastle	3.5%
West Ham	3.1%
Chelsea	4.9%
Brighton	< 1%
Wolves	4.3%

 ts

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Luton vs Forest (13.3%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Luton	42%	23%	12%
Forest	69%	84%	94%
Bournemouth vs Luton (4.4%)	Home Win (59%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
Luton	22%	29%	44%
Forest	84%	80%	73%
Everton	95.8%	95%	92%
Crystal Palace	98.0%	97.2%	95.4%
Bournemouth	99.98%	99.83%	99.4%

	Burnley			Luton			Forest			Everton			Crystal Palace			Brentford
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	6%	2.5%	100%	13%	4.6%	100%	15%	5%	100%
44	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.7%	1.2%	100%	10%	4.1%	100%	19%	5%	100%	21%	6%	100%
43	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	4.8%	2.1%	100%	15%	4.9%	100%	26%	7%	100%	28%	8%	100%
42	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	8%	2.7%	100%	22%	7%	100%	35%	9%	100%	37%	9%	100%
41	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	12%	4.1%	100%	30%	9%	100%	44%	9%	100%	46%	9%	>99.99%
40	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.8%	< 1%	99.7%	17%	6%	99.98%	39%	9%	>99.99%	54%	10%	>99.99%	56%	10%	>99.99%
39	< 1%	< 1%	97%	3.1%	1.3%	98.8%	24%	6%	99.9%	49%	10%	99.97%	64%	10%	99.90%	66%	9%	99.96%
38	< 1%	< 1%	95%	5%	2.1%	97%	32%	8%	99.5%	60%	10%	99.8%	73%	9%	99.7%	74%	8%	99.8%
37	< 1%	< 1%	91%	9%	3.4%	91%	41%	9%	98.3%	69%	9%	99.3%	81%	8%	98.9%	81%	8%	99.3%
36	< 1%	< 1%	77%	13%	4.2%	82%	51%	9%	95.5%	78%	9%	97.7%	88%	7%	96.7%	87%	6%	97.7%
35	< 1%	< 1%	59%	19%	6%	68%	61%	10%	90%	85%	7%	94%	92%	4.7%	93%	92%	4.5%	94%
34	1.1%	< 1%	42%	26%	8%	53%	70%	9%	82%	90%	5%	88%	95.8%	3.5%	86%	95.2%	3.3%	88%
33	2.1%	1.0%	25%	35%	8%	37%	78%	8%	71%	94%	4.0%	77%	98.0%	2.2%	75%	97.4%	2.2%	78%
32	3.5%	1.4%	15%	45%	10%	24%	85%	7%	59%	96.8%	2.7%	64%	99.11%	1.1%	62%	98.6%	1.3%	65%
31	6%	2.3%	6%	55%	11%	14%	91%	5%	45%	98.3%	1.5%	48%	99.70%	< 1%	49%	99.38%	< 1%	50%
30	9%	3.6%	2.5%	65%	10%	7%	94%	3.7%	32%	99.23%	< 1%	33%	99.95%	< 1%	35%	99.76%	< 1%	34%
29	14%	4.5%	< 1%	75%	9%	3.2%	97.1%	2.6%	20%	99.70%	< 1%	19%	100%	< 1%	23%	99.91%	< 1%	22%
28	20%	6%	< 1%	83%	8%	1.2%	98.7%	1.6%	11%	99.89%	< 1%	11%	100%	< 1%	-	99.98%	< 1%	12%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	72%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	80%
League cup winners	100%	>99.99%	99.98%
Sixth team	100%	95.7%	< 1%
Seventh team	96.6%	64%	< 1%
Eighth team	66%	4.2%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 85 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 74
Simulated points for 17th team: 33 - 36

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Bournemouth	59%	21%	20%	Luton
Luton	43%	24%	33%	Forest
Burnley	37%	24%	38%	Brentford
Fulham	37%	24%	39%	Tottenham
West Ham	41%	24%	35%	Aston Villa

Most likely combo of teams in CL

57%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
14%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
13%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
4.3%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham
4.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

71%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
18%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
4.9%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
2.6%	Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United
2.4%	Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United