PL: Liverpool (42%) favourites after good results for them

 

Hot Teams
Fulham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Wolves: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Bournemouth: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
Everton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 less than expected
Brentford: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Forest: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Luton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 less than expected
Sheffield United: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
67	Liverpool	84.8	+49	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	99.98%	42%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
64	Man City	84.1	+48	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.96%	32%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
65	Arsenal	83.0	+55	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.92%	26%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%
59	Aston Villa	70.3	+20	< 1%	99.98%	99.72%	95.8%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	89%
56	Tottenham	69.1	+19	< 1%	99.86%	99.0%	92%	41%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	82%
48	Man United	61.9	+3	< 1%	85%	65%	10%	1.6%	< 1%	11%	74%	8%
43	Newcastle	57.2	+15	< 1%	50%	19%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	25%	38%	1.6%
44	West Ham	54.8	-6	< 1%	17%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	12%	5%
40	Chelsea	54.6	+3	< 1%	22%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	27%	< 1%
42	Brighton	53.7	+4	< 1%	16%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	12%	< 1%
41	Wolves	53.0	-5	< 1%	9%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	6%	< 1%
39	Fulham	49.1	-2	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	1.0%	< 1%
38	Bournemouth	48.6	-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Crystal Palace	39.4	-20	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	Brentford	38.1	-13	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Everton	36.9	-12	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Forest	30.6	-20	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Luton	29.1	-27	68%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Burnley	26.5	-38	88%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Sheffield United	22.5	-59	98.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Liverpool	100%	63%	15%
Man City	85%	39%	7%		22%	7%
Arsenal	35%	3.2%
Aston Villa	32%	< 1%
Tottenham	< 1%
Man United	19%
West Ham	5%
Chelsea	11%

Important matches for title race
Man City vs Aston Villa (3.8%)	Home Win (72%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (12%)
Man City	38%	22%	15%
Liverpool	39%	48%	52%
Arsenal	23%	30%	33%
Liverpool vs Sheffield United (2.4%)	Home Win (85%)	Draw (10%)	Away Win (5%)
Liverpool	45%	28%	21%
Man City	31%	40%	44%
Arsenal	24%	32%	35%

	Liverpool			Man City			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
92	3.1%	2.4%	99.3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%
91	6%	2.6%	97.6%	3.1%	3.1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	9%	3.4%	94%	3.1%	< 1%	-	3.3%	2.5%	91%
89	17%	7%	88%	10%	7%	82%	6%	2.9%	87%
88	23%	7%	78%	17%	6%	73%	10%	3.5%	74%
87	33%	9%	66%	24%	8%	59%	18%	8%	63%
86	44%	11%	52%	37%	13%	47%	25%	7%	50%
85	54%	10%	39%	47%	10%	34%	34%	9%	35%
84	64%	11%	26%	58%	11%	22%	46%	12%	24%
83	74%	10%	16%	70%	11%	14%	56%	10%	15%
82	81%	7%	9%	78%	8%	7%	66%	10%	8%
81	88%	6%	4.7%	85%	7%	3.8%	76%	9%	4.0%
80	92%	4.6%	2.2%	90%	5%	1.8%	83%	7%	1.8%
79	95.4%	3.0%	< 1%	94%	3.6%	< 1%	89%	6%	< 1%
78	97.5%	2.1%	< 1%	96.7%	2.6%	< 1%	93%	4.3%	< 1%
77	98.7%	1.2%	< 1%	98.2%	1.5%	< 1%	95.9%	2.8%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Chelsea vs Man United (2.4%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Man United	4.7%	7%	15%
Tottenham	84%	83%	79%
Aston Villa	90%	89%	86%

Chelsea vs Man United is important for the EL and Conference League slots.

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Chelsea vs Man United (4.1%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Man United	76%	83%	91%
Chelsea	35%	23%	19%

 

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Chelsea vs Man United (4.8%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Chelsea	54%	39%	32%
Man United	89%	94%	97.6%

 

 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Forest vs Fulham (6.8%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Forest	74%	57%	47%
Luton	24%	34%	40%
Burnley	9%	13%	15%
Burnley vs Wolves (3.1%)	Home Win (36%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (40%)
Burnley	20%	10%	6%
Forest	56%	61%	62%
Luton	30%	33%	35%
Arsenal vs Luton (2.5%)	Home Win (82%)	Draw (11%)	Away Win (6%)
Luton	30%	39%	57%
Forest	61%	56%	45%
Burnley	12%	11%	7%

 

	Sheffield United			Burnley			Luton			Forest			Everton			Brentford
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
39	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	1.4%	< 1%	99.9%	32%	9%	100%	45%	10%	100%
38	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	3.1%	1.7%	99.99%	43%	11%	100%	56%	11%	>99.99%
37	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%	1.5%	< 1%	99.4%	5%	2.1%	99.9%	54%	10%	>99.99%	67%	11%	99.99%
36	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	2.6%	1.1%	99%	9%	3.3%	99.7%	64%	11%	99.93%	76%	9%	99.93%
35	< 1%	< 1%	95%	1.3%	< 1%	95%	6%	3.0%	95%	14%	6%	98.8%	74%	10%	99.7%	84%	8%	99.7%
34	< 1%	< 1%	89%	2.8%	1.5%	87%	9%	3.8%	89%	21%	6%	96.4%	82%	8%	98.7%	90%	6%	98.8%
33	< 1%	< 1%	79%	4.9%	2.0%	76%	14%	5%	79%	29%	8%	92%	88%	6%	96.0%	94%	4.1%	96.2%
32	< 1%	< 1%	60%	8%	3.1%	58%	23%	9%	66%	40%	11%	84%	93%	4.9%	89%	96.9%	2.8%	91%
31	1.4%	< 1%	42%	13%	6%	41%	33%	9%	51%	50%	10%	72%	96.3%	2.9%	77%	98.7%	1.8%	80%
30	2.5%	1.1%	25%	20%	6%	26%	43%	10%	36%	61%	11%	58%	98.2%	1.9%	60%	99.46%	< 1%	65%
29	4.3%	1.8%	12%	28%	8%	13%	57%	14%	22%	72%	11%	43%	99.26%	1.1%	38%	99.82%	< 1%	48%
28	8%	3.5%	5%	39%	11%	7%	68%	11%	13%	81%	9%	27%	99.71%	< 1%	19%	99.97%	< 1%	25%
27	12%	4.3%	1.7%	49%	10%	2.6%	78%	10%	6%	88%	7%	16%	99.91%	< 1%	9%	100%	< 1%	12%
26	18%	6%	< 1%	60%	11%	< 1%	88%	10%	2.4%	94%	6%	7%	99.99%	< 1%	1%	100%	< 1%	-
25	27%	9%	< 1%	71%	12%	< 1%	93%	6%	< 1%	96.9%	3.1%	2.5%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
24	36%	9%	< 1%	80%	9%	< 1%	96.8%	3.4%	< 1%	98.7%	1.8%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	82%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	70%
League cup winners	100%	100%	>99.99%
Sixth team	100%	96.5%	< 1%
Seventh team	97.6%	72%	< 1%
Eighth team	75%	5%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 85 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 74
Simulated points for 17th team: 30 - 33

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Newcastle	60%	21%	20%	Everton
Forest	39%	24%	37%	Fulham
Burnley	36%	24%	40%	Wolves
Bournemouth	50%	23%	27%	Crystal Palace
West Ham	43%	24%	33%	Tottenham
Arsenal	82%	11%	6%	Luton
Brentford	43%	24%	33%	Brighton
Man City	72%	16%	12%	Aston Villa
Liverpool	85%	10%	5%	Sheffield United
Chelsea	46%	24%	30%	Man United

Most likely combo of teams in CL

67%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
10%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
7%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
5.0%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
4.4%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham
2.6%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham
1.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

55%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
28%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
10%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United
2.4%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
1.4%	Burnley, Forest, Luton
1.1%	Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United

PL: Forest deducted 4 points and risk relegation (37%)

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
63	Man City	85.0	+49	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.98%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
64	Liverpool	83.9	+49	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.96%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
64	Arsenal	82.6	+54	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.91%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%
56	Aston Villa	69.4	+19	< 1%	99.82%	99.0%	92%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	86%
53	Tottenham	68.4	+20	< 1%	99.50%	97.8%	88%	42%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	80%
47	Man United	62.1	+2	< 1%	83%	64%	15%	3.2%	< 1%	10%	68%	13%
40	Newcastle	55.9	+14	< 1%	33%	12%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	21%	25%	1.4%
39	Chelsea	55.5	+4	< 1%	27%	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	31%	1.2%
44	West Ham	55.4	-6	< 1%	20%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	15%	5%
42	Brighton	55.2	+5	< 1%	24%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	18%	< 1%
41	Wolves	54.0	-4	< 1%	12%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	9%	< 1%
38	Fulham	49.1	-3	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	1.0%	< 1%
35	Bournemouth	46.7	-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	Crystal Palace	40.0	-20	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Brentford	38.8	-12	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Everton	38.5	-11	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Forest	31.5	-19	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Luton	29.8	-27	67%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Burnley	25.9	-40	92%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Sheffield United	22.6	-60	98.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

 Most likely combo of teams being relegated

58%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
29%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
7%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United
1.9%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
1.5%	Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United
1.4%	Burnley, Forest, Luton

PL: 29% chance that the FA-cup winner plays in the Europa League.

The FA-cup winners end up playing CL in 71% of our simulations. In most cases (68%) that is Man City, as the other teams have smaller chances to qualify for CL. The sixth team is Man United in 49% of the simulations and they end up in EL in 68% of the simulations, either via the FA-cup or the league position.

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	84%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	71%
League cup winners	100%	100%	>99.99%
Sixth team	100%	97.1%	< 1%
Seventh team	98.0%	74%	< 1%
Eighth team	77%	5%	< 1%

The current top-5 qualify for CL in 63% of the simulations. In 16% Tottenham or Aston Villa are missing out due to PL missing out on the extra CL spot. Only team against is Man United joining the top-3 and one of Aston Villa or Tottenham. West Ham can qualify through the EL adventure, but less likely.

Most likely combo of teams in CL

63%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
7%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
4.7%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham
3.9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham

It's starting to look more and more, 79% now, that the three new teams from the Championship will play in the Championship next year again.

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

79%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
10%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
3.1%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
2.6%	Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United
2.2%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United
1.5%	Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United

 Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	88%	47%	9%		31%	9%
Liverpool	100%	56%	11%
Arsenal	34%	3.1%
Aston Villa	37%	< 1%
Tottenham	< 1%
Man United	19%
Chelsea	11%
West Ham	4.9%

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
63	Man City	85.0	+49	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.98%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
64	Liverpool	83.9	+49	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.96%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
64	Arsenal	82.6	+54	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.91%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%
56	Aston Villa	69.4	+19	< 1%	99.82%	99.0%	92%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	86%
53	Tottenham	68.4	+20	< 1%	99.50%	97.8%	88%	42%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	80%
47	Man United	62.1	+2	< 1%	83%	64%	15%	3.2%	< 1%	10%	68%	13%
40	Newcastle	55.9	+14	< 1%	33%	12%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	21%	25%	1.4%
39	Chelsea	55.5	+4	< 1%	27%	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	31%	1.2%
44	West Ham	55.4	-6	< 1%	20%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	15%	5%
42	Brighton	55.2	+5	< 1%	24%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	18%	< 1%
41	Wolves	54.0	-4	< 1%	12%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	9%	< 1%
38	Fulham	49.1	-3	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	1.0%	< 1%
35	Bournemouth	46.7	-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	Crystal Palace	40.0	-20	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Brentford	38.8	-12	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Everton	38.5	-11	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Forest	35.5	-19	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Luton	29.8	-27	82%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Burnley	25.9	-40	96.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Sheffield United	22.6	-60	99.45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

 

CL/EL/ECL: Quarterfinals draw - and how it affects the CL bonus spot

 

Champions League

The chances were reduced for the four favourites, Man City, Arsenal, Real Madrid and Bayern. In particular for Real Madrid their chances to reach the semis jumped down from 60% to 36%. Paris are favourites on the other half with a 29% probability to reach the final.

Team	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Man City	64% (-11)	42% (-10)	30% (-4)
Arsenal	53% (-3)	21% (-7)	13% (-2)
Real Madrid	36% (-24)	20% (-14)	12% (-5)
Paris SG	53% (+9)	29% (+11)	11% (+4)
Bayern	47% (-5)	17% (-8)	10% (-1)
Atletico	52% (+13)	25% (+11)	8% (+3)
Barcelona	47% (+7)	24% (+9)	8% (+3)
Dortmund	48% (+12)	22% (+10)	7% (+3)

 Europa League

The draw for EL was not as skewed as the CL draw. Atalanta drew to short straw getting Liverpool and Benifica got Marseille the draw did not affect the Champion probabilities that much.

Team	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Liverpool	73% (-1)	57% (+3)	36%
Leverkusen	68% (+6)	41% (+5)	21% (+2)
Milan	59% (+5)	29% (+2)	13%
Benfica	61%(+15)	20%	9% (+1)
Atalanta	27% (-20)	15% (-5)	7% (-2)
Roma	41% (-2)	17%	6% (-1)
West Ham	32% (-9)	13% (-2)	4.9% (-1)
Marseille	39% (+6)	9% (-1)	3.2% (-0.1)

 Europa Conference League

Aston Villa and Lille got tough draws playing each other, whereas Fiorentina and Brugge got advantageous draws.

Team	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Aston Villa	69% (-9)	55% (-4)	37% (-4)
Fiorentina	76% (+14)	50% (+15)	23% (+6)
Brugge	64% (+14)	28% (+6)	11% (+2)
Lille	31% (-27)	19% (-11)	10% (-4)
Fenerbahce	66% (+15)	20% (-3)	10%
PAOK	36% (+2)	11% (+1)	3.3% (+0.1)
Viktoria Plzen	24% (-9)	10%	2.8% (-0.1)
Olympiakos	34% (-1)	6% (-4)	2.4% (-0.5)

 

The key for Germanu now s that Bayern beat Arsenal and advance to the semis. Likewise for England, if Arsenal beat Bayern, they have very good chances.

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ITA	96.9%	20.21	18.57	22.71
ENG	84%	19.8	16.63	23
GER	19%	18.31	16.5	21.36
FRA	< 1%	16.06	14.42	20.08
ESP	< 1%	16.18	14.81	18.19

Important factors
GER 34% if Bayern reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 5.7%
ENG 95% if Arsenal reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 71%
GER 52% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 12%
GER 26% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 3%
GER 33% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 9%
ENG 97% if West Ham reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 78%
GER 55% if Bayern wins the Champions League; otherwise 15%
GER 39% if Leverkusen wins the Europa League; otherwise 13%
ENG 94% if Man City reaches the CL final; otherwise 77%
ENG 91% if Liverpool reaches the EL final; otherwise 75%