World Cup: Brazil and Ecuador clinch qualifications

Brazil , and Ecuador secured qualification to the world cup. Uruguay and Paraguay need one more point in the last two matches to clinch qualifications mathematically, although Venezuela are unlikely to catch up on their much worse goal difference.

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-7	Top-6	World Cup
16	35	Argentina	39.3	+22	100%	100%	100%
16	25	Brazil	29.6	+8	100%	100%	100%
16	24	Uruguay	28.1	+9	100%	>99.99%	100%
16	28	Ecuador	27.6	+8	100%	100%	100%
16	24	Paraguay	26.5	+3	100%	99.92%	99.97%
16	22	Colombia	26.4	+7	99.98%	99.48%	99.90%
16	18	Venezuela	19.2	-7	82%	< 1%	50%
16	17	Bolivia	18	-19	17%	< 1%	9%
16	12	Peru	14	-12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	10	Chile	11.4	-17

First six team qualify for the World Cup finals. The 7th team qualify for the intercontinental playoff.

 

World Cup: European qualifiers

 

Group A

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Germany	14.7	+12	100%	98.8%	89%	95%
0	0	Slovakia	9.2	+1	72%	72%	9%	23%
0	0	Northern Ireland	6.1	-4	98.4%	23%	1.6%	11%
0	0	Luxembourg	3.9	-9	7%	7%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Switzerland	10.8	+4	78%	78%	49%	59%
0	0	Sweden	9.2	+1	99.98%	59%	26%	46%
0	0	Slovenia	8.7	+1	53%	53%	22%	30%
0	0	Kosovo	4.7	-6	11%	11%	2.7%	3.5%

Group C

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Denmark	11.4	+5	81%	79%	47%	61%
0	0	Greece	10.4	+4	68%	68%	33%	45%
0	0	Scotland	9.1	+2	54%	50%	20%	29%
0	0	Belarus	2.9	-11	2.1%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	France	15.1	+14	100%	99.36%	88%	95.8%
0	0	Ukraine	10.4	+4	85%	85%	11%	36%
0	0	Iceland	5.9	-5	14%	14%	< 1%	2.2%
0	0	Azerbaijan	2.8	-13	1.8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Spain	15.9	+16	100%	99.73%	96.2%	99.16%
0	0	Turkey	8.5	-0	63%	63%	2.8%	21%
0	0	Georgia	6.8	-4	33%	33%	< 1%	8%
0	0	Bulgaria	3	-12	4.0%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
0	0	Portugal	14.4	+12	100%	98.2%	83%	93%
0	0	Hungary	10.2	+3	79%	79%	15%	34%
0	0	Ireland	6.6	-4	21%	21%	2.0%	4.6%
0	0	Armenia	2.9	-12	2.2%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
1	3	Netherlands	21.1	+20	99.66%	99.64%	95.6%	97.6%
3	6	Poland	14.3	+4	70%	70%	3.9%	18%
4	7	Finland	12.7	-0	30%	30%	< 1%	3.1%
3	2	Lithuania	5	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	1	Malta	3.2	-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	6	Austria	20.9	+21	98.8%	98.8%	93%	95.1%
3	9	Bosnia and Herzegovina	15.1	+2	50%	50%	5%	8%
4	6	Romania	14.3	+11	>99.99%	51%	2.4%	26%
3	3	Cyprus	7.4	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	0	San Marino	0.7	-26	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group I

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	12	Norway	20.4	+17	100%	99.70%	79%	86%
2	3	Italy	17.8	+11	94%	94%	21%	58%
3	6	Israel	11.8	-1	7%	7%	< 1%	1.4%
4	3	Estonia	5.4	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	0	Moldova	2.9	-16	81%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%

Group J

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	4	Belgium	18.8	+17	95.8%	95.4%	80%	86%
4	7	Wales	15.3	+10	100%	66%	14%	36%
4	8	North Macedonia	14.4	+7	99.95%	38%	6%	19%
3	3	Kazakhstan	7.7	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	0	Liechtenstein	0.4	-29

Group K

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
3	9	England	21	+18	100%	99.74%	88%	95.1%
2	4	Serbia	16	+11	90%	90%	12%	39%
4	5	Albania	11.4	+3	10%	10%	< 1%	1.7%
3	4	Latvia	7.1	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	0	Andorra	1	-20	< 1%	< 1%

Group L

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	6	Croatia	20.8	+26	99.15%	99.10%	86%	92%
4	9	Czechia	17.4	+10	100%	94%	13%	37%
3	6	Montenegro	12.1	-1	7%	7%	< 1%	1.1%
3	3	Faroe Islands	6.4	-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	0	Gibraltar	1.5	-26

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The 12 Runner-ups together with four best group winners
from Nations League play a play for the remaining four slots

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	At least Playoff	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	100%	< 1%	99.73%	96.2%	99.16%
A	Germany	100%	1.2%	98.8%	89%	95%
F	Portugal	100%	1.8%	98.2%	83%	93%
D	France	100%	< 1%	99.36%	88%	95.8%
K	England	100%	< 1%	99.74%	88%	95.1%
I	Norway	100%	< 1%	99.70%	79%	86%
J	Wales	100%	34%	66%	14%	36%
L	Czechia	100%	6%	94%	13%	37%
H	Romania	>99.99%	49%	51%	2.4%	26%
B	Sweden	99.98%	41%	59%	26%	46%
J	North Macedonia	99.95%	62%	38%	6%	19%
A	Northern Ireland	98.4%	76%	23%	1.6%	11%
I	Moldova	81%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%
H	San Marino	39%	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Italy	94%	< 1%	94%	21%	58%
G	Netherlands	99.66%	< 1%	99.64%	95.6%	97.6%
C	Denmark	81%	1.4%	79%	47%	61%
L	Croatia	99.15%	< 1%	99.10%	86%	92%
C	Scotland	54%	3.3%	50%	20%	29%
K	Serbia	90%	< 1%	90%	12%	39%
F	Hungary	79%	< 1%	79%	15%	34%
J	Belgium	95.8%	< 1%	95.4%	80%	86%
G	Poland	70%	< 1%	70%	3.9%	18%
I	Israel	7%	< 1%	7%	< 1%	1.4%

 

World Cup: Oman survives with a last-minute goal

Oman grabbed the last spot in Round 4 with a last-minute equaliser against Palestine. In Group C, Australia secured the second spot with a win against Saudi Arabia. That means that UAE, Qatar, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi and Indonesia will play the Round 4.

Group A

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-4	Top-2	World Cup
10	23	Iran	23	+11	100%	100%	100%
10	21	Uzbekistan	21	+7	100%	100%	100%
10	15	United Arab Emirates	15	+7	100%	< 1%	43%
10	13	Qatar	13	-7	100%	< 1%	42%
10	8	Kyrgyzstan	8	-6
10	3	North Korea	3	-12

Group B

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-4	Top-2	World Cup
10	22	South Korea	22	+13	100%	100%	100%
10	16	Jordan	16	+8	100%	100%	100%
10	15	Iraq	15	0	100%	< 1%	53%
10	11	Oman	11	-5	100%	< 1%	38%
10	10	Palestine	10	-3
10	5	Kuwait	5	-13

Group C

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-4	Top-2	World Cup
10	23	Japan	23	+27	100%	100%	100%
10	19	Australia	19	+9	100%	100%	100%
10	13	Saudi Arabia	13	-1	100%	< 1%	43%
10	12	Indonesia	12	-11	100%	< 1%	12%
10	9	China	9	-13
10	6	Bahrain	6	-11

Top-2 advance to the World Cup.
3rd and 4th teams advance to Round 4.
The six teams in Round 4 play two groups of three teams.
The winners qualify for the world cup.
Runners-up play playoff in which the winners advance.
to the intercontinental playoff.

 

World Cup: Three open spots in the 3rd round

Honduras, Costa Rica, Haiti, Curacao, Panama, Jamaica, Guatemala, and
Suriname have secured a spot in Round 3.

In Group A we have a decider between Cuba and Bermuda. Bermuda need to beat Cuba away to grab the second spot.

In Group B, Grenada need to beat Saint Kitts in he last match while Trinidad and Tobago lose against Costa Rica - Grenada need to catch up 7 goals to have better goal difference.

In Group F, Puerto Rico need to win against Saint Vincent while El Salvador lose against Suriname. Otherwise, El Salvador take the spot.

Group A
Cuba clinch Round 3 if they draw (or win) against Bermuda (84%)
Bermuda clinch Round 3 if they win against Cuba (16%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Round 3	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
3	9	Honduras	11.9	+12	100%	60%	31%	40%
3	6	Cuba	8.2	+3	84%	6%	2%	2%
3	4	Bermuda	4.7	-1	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	3	Cayman Islands	3	-8
3	1	Antigua and Barbuda	1.1	-6

Group B
Trinidad and Tobago clinch Round 3 if Saint Kitts and Nevis draw (or win) against Grenada (74%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Round 3	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
3	9	Costa Rica	11.4	+17	100%	81%	58%	69%
3	7	Trinidad and Tobago	7.4	+8	99%	24%	11%	13%
3	4	Grenada	5	+2	< 1%	< 1%
3	3	Saint Kitts and Nevis	4.8	-6
4	0	Bahamas	0	-21

Group C

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Round 3	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
3	9	Haiti	11.3	+9	100%	57%	33%	40%
3	9	Curaçao	9.6	+8	100%	14%	5%	7%
3	1	Saint Lucia	3	-4
4	2	Aruba	2	-7
3	1	Barbados	1.8	-6

Group D

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Round 3	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
3	9	Panama	11.5	+8	100%	88%	70%	79%
3	9	Nicaragua	9.3	+6	100%	19%	7%	9%
3	3	Guyana	5.5	+1
3	3	Montserrat	3.4	-6
4	0	Belize	0	-9

Group E

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Round 3	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
3	9	Jamaica	10.9	+4	100%	66%	38%	49%
3	9	Guatemala	9.8	+10	100%	50%	28%	35%
3	3	Dominican Republic	5.5	+3
3	3	Dominica	3.3	-6
4	0	British Virgin Islands	0	-11

Group F
El Salvador clinch Round 3 if they draw (or win) against Suriname (76%)
Puerto Rico clinch Round 3 if they win against Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Suriname win against El Salvador (13%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Round 3	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
3	9	Suriname	10	+7	100%	16%	6%	9%
3	7	El Salvador	8.8	+6	87%	19%	8%	11%
3	4	Puerto Rico	5.7	+7	13%
3	3	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	4	+1
4	0	Anguilla	0	-21

First two teams in each group qualify for the next round. The twelve teams advancing to that round will be drawn into three groups of four teams. The group winners advance to the World Cup finals and the two best  runner-ups will play intercontinental playoff.

World Cup: Will Italy miss a third consecutive world cup?

Bosnia off with a good start winning their first three matches, challenging group H favorite Austria (92%) who won their first match. In group F, Norway thrashed Italy and are now favorites (72%) to win that group. Will Italy miss a third consecutive world cup? England off with a perfect start in in group K with three wins. In group L, Czechia are off with a good start with three wins challenging group favorites Croatia (71%) who won their first match.

Group G

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
1	3	Netherlands	21.1	+20	99.83%	99.82%	91%	95.3%
2	6	Poland	15.9	+5	87%	87%	9%	26%
3	4	Finland	10.9	-2	14%	14%	< 1%	1.4%
3	2	Lithuania	5	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	1	Malta	3.2	-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
1	3	Austria	20.8	+22	98.8%	98.8%	92%	95%
3	9	Bosnia and Herzegovina	15.1	+2	53%	53%	5%	8%
3	3	Romania	14	+12	>99.99%	48%	2.3%	25%
2	3	Cyprus	7.6	-8	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	0	San Marino	0.7	-27	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group I

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
3	9	Norway	19.8	+18	100%	99.11%	72%	82%
1	0	Italy	17.6	+13	94%	93%	27%	61%
3	6	Israel	11.8	-1	8%	7%	< 1%	1.7%
3	3	Estonia	5.9	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	0	Moldova	3	-18	80%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%

Group J

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
1	1	Belgium	17.9	+17	93%	92%	68%	77%
3	7	Wales	16.1	+10	100%	78%	28%	46%
3	5	North Macedonia	13.1	+6	99.90%	27%	4.3%	17%
2	3	Kazakhstan	8.8	-4	2.6%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
3	0	Liechtenstein	0.4	-29

Group K

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
3	9	England	21	+18	100%	99.25%	87%	95%
1	1	Serbia	15.9	+12	84%	84%	12%	37%
3	4	Albania	12.6	+4	16%	16%	< 1%	3.1%
2	3	Latvia	6.8	-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	0	Andorra	1.1	-22	< 1%	< 1%

Group L

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
1	3	Croatia	19.9	+23	97.9%	97.8%	71%	83%
3	9	Czechia	18.1	+13	100%	95.4%	28%	48%
3	6	Montenegro	12.1	-1	7%	7%	< 1%	1.2%
2	0	Faroe Islands	5.8	-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	0	Gibraltar	2	-27

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The 12 Runner-ups together with four best group winners
from Nations League play a play for the remaining four slots

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	< 1%	99.73%	96.2%	99.14%
A	Germany	1.2%	98.8%	89%	95%
F	Portugal	1.8%	98.2%	83%	93%
D	France	< 1%	99.36%	88%	95.9%
K	England	< 1%	99.25%	87%	95%
I	Norway	< 1%	99.11%	72%	82%
J	Wales	22%	78%	28%	46%
L	Czechia	4.6%	95.4%	28%	48%
H	Romania	52%	48%	2.3%	25%
B	Sweden	41%	59%	26%	46%
J	North Macedonia	73%	27%	4.3%	17%
A	Northern Ireland	76%	23%	1.6%	11%
I	Moldova	80%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%
H	San Marino	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Italy	< 1%	93%	27%	61%
G	Netherlands	< 1%	99.82%	91%	95.3%
C	Denmark	1.5%	79%	47%	61%
L	Croatia	< 1%	97.8%	71%	83%
C	Scotland	3.3%	50%	20%	29%
K	Serbia	< 1%	84%	12%	37%
F	Hungary	< 1%	79%	15%	34%
J	Belgium	< 1%	92%	68%	77%
G	Poland	< 1%	87%	9%	26%
I	Israel	< 1%	7%	< 1%	1.7%

 

World: South America

Argentina have qualified and it looks like they will be joined by Brazil, Ecuador, Uruguay, Paraguay and Colombia. Below are the some conditions by which they can secure qualification next week.

Brazil clinch qualifications if they win against Paraguay and Uruguay draw (or win) against Venezuela (64%)
Ecuador clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Peru and Uruguay draw (or win) against Venezuela (63%)
Paraguay clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Brazil and Uruguay win against Venezuela (20%)
Uruguay clinch qualifications if they win against Venezuela and Paraguay draw (or win) against Brazil (20%)
Uruguay clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Venezuela (88%)
Colombia clinch playoff if Chile draw (or win) against Bolivia (59%)
Venezuela clinch playoff if they win against Uruguay and Chile draw (or win) against Bolivia (7%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-7	Top-6	World Cup
15	34	Argentina	40.4	+23	100%	100%	100%
15	22	Brazil	28.9	+9	100%	99.96%	>99.99%
15	27	Ecuador	28.2	+8	100%	99.97%	>99.99%
15	21	Uruguay	27.4	+9	>99.99%	99.38%	99.88%
15	24	Paraguay	27	+2	100%	99.67%	99.89%
15	21	Colombia	26.1	+6	99.96%	98.5%	99.73%
15	18	Venezuela	19.7	-7	92%	2.4%	57%
15	14	Bolivia	16.5	-21	7%	< 1%	3.5%
15	11	Peru	14.1	-13	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
15	10	Chile	12.7	-16	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

First six team qualify for the World Cup finals. The 7th team qualify for the intercontinental playoff.

 

World Cup: Asian qualifiers

Uzbekistan, South Korea, and Jordan joined Japan and Iran as qualified. Australia will play Saudi Arabia in decider for the last spot, where Saudi Arabia must beat Australia with four goals or more. There is another decided between Oman and Palestine, where Palestine need win to clinch a spot in in the playoff together with UAE, Qatar, Iraq, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia (or Australia).

Group A

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-4	Top-2	World Cup
9	20	Iran	22.7	+11	100%	100%	100%
9	18	Uzbekistan	20.2	+5	100%	100%	100%
9	14	United Arab Emirates	15.9	+8	100%	< 1%	44%
9	13	Qatar	13.6	-5	100%	< 1%	43%
9	7	Kyrgyzstan	7.9	-7
9	3	North Korea	3.2	-12

Group B
Oman clinch round 4 if they draw (or win) against Palestine (62%)
Palestine clinch round 4 if they win against Oman (38%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-4	Top-2	World Cup
9	19	South Korea	21.7	+12	100%	100%	100%
9	16	Jordan	17.8	+10	100%	100%	100%
9	12	Iraq	13	-2	100%	< 1%	54%
9	10	Oman	11.4	-5	62%	< 1%	24%
9	9	Palestine	10.4	-3	38%	< 1%	9%
9	5	Kuwait	5.2	-12

Group C
Australia clinch qualifications if they avoid losing with 5 goals against Saudi Arabia (99.72%)

Saudi Arabia clinch qualifications if they win with 5 goals against Australia (0.28%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-4	Top-2	World Cup
9	20	Japan	22.8	+24	100%	100%	100%
9	16	Australia	17.7	+8	100%	99.72%	99.92%
9	13	Saudi Arabia	14.1	-0	100%	< 1%	45%
9	12	Indonesia	12.1	-8	100%	< 1%	13%
9	6	Bahrain	7.4	-10
9	6	China	7.4	-14

Top-2 advance to the World Cup.
3rd and 4th teams advance to Round 4.
The six teams in Round 4 play two groups of three teams.
The winners qualify for the world cup.
Runners-up play playoff in which the winners advance.
to the intercontinental playoff.