CL: Real through to last eight after penalty drama in Madrid

Spain clinch the extra CL slot if all remaining five teams advance to the semifinals. England secure the extra slot if three PL teams advance to the semifinals.

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (100%)
		Paris SG (73%) Aston Villa (27%)
Aston Villa (100%)
				Arsenal (33%) Paris SG (32%) Real Madrid (29%)
Real Madrid (100%)
		Arsenal (53%) Real Madrid (47%)
Arsenal (100%)
						Arsenal (19%) Inter (17%) Paris SG (17%) Real Madrid (17%) Barcelona (16%)
Barcelona (100%)
		Barcelona (73%) Dortmund (27%)
Dortmund (100%)
				Inter (35%) Barcelona (35%) Bayern (23%)
Bayern (100%)
		Inter (57%) Bayern (43%)
Inter (100%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	98.7%	18.69	15.14	22.71
ESP	83%	17.31	14.43	22.07
ITA	18%	15.55	12.69	18.75
CYP	< 1%	13.98	13	16.83
GER	< 1%	13.31	11.94	15.63
GRE	< 1%	11.58	10.63	16.5
NED	< 1%	13.16	12.5	15.17
POR	< 1%	13.13	12.5	14.8
NOR	< 1%	11.46	10.13	16.25
BEL	< 1%	13.01	12.7	15

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 199 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	4.8%	24%	38%	26%	8%	< 1%
Chance if	22%	60%	89%	98.9%	99.98%	100%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 189 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	3.2%	18%	37%	32%	10%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	6%	28%	69%

Number of finalists from ITA; 164 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	39%	31%	11%	1.4%
Chance if	1.2%	7%	24%	58%	94%

Number of finalists from ESP; 163 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	26%	42%	25%	7%	< 1%
Chance if	54%	87%	99.2%	100%	100%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 154 mbit

n	2	3	4	5
Probability	19%	43%	31%	7%
Chance if	48%	84%	97.3%	99.96%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 151 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	1.2%	18%	47%	34%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	8%	41%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 74 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	52%	40%	8%
Chance if	72%	93%	99.8%

Number of tournament winners for ITA; 64 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	44%	42%	12%	1.1%
Chance if	8%	20%	41%	67%

Number of semifinalists from ENG; 37 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.0%	18%	37%	31%	11%	1.5%
Chance if	71%	96.0%	99.81%	100%	100%	100%

Number of finalists from ENG; 27 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	8%	41%	38%	12%	1.1%
Chance if	88%	98.8%	>99.99%	100%	100%

 

CL: PSG advance to the quarterfinals after penalty shootout

Probabilities after Tuesday night matches.

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (100%)
		Paris SG (74%) Aston Villa (25%)
Aston Villa (95%)
				Arsenal (36%) Paris SG (33%) Real Madrid (21%)
Real Madrid (71%) Atletico (29%)
		Arsenal (57%) Real Madrid (34%)
Arsenal (100%)
						Arsenal (21%) Inter (18%) Paris SG (17%) Barcelona (15%) Real Madrid (12%)
Barcelona (100%)
		Barcelona (70%) Lille (21%)
Lille (66%) Dortmund (34%)
				Inter (35%) Barcelona (33%) Bayern (23%)
Bayern (100%)
		Inter (57%) Bayern (43%)
Inter (100%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	98.6%	18.68	14.5	23
ESP	81%	17.23	14.43	22.07
ITA	19%	15.55	12.69	18.75
CYP	< 1%	13.98	13	16.83
GER	< 1%	12.84	11.5	15.63
GRE	< 1%	11.58	10.63	16.75
BEL	< 1%	13.18	12.7	17.5
FRA	< 1%	12.59	10.36	15.86
NED	< 1%	13.07	12.33	16.08
POR	< 1%	13.12	12.5	14.8
NOR	< 1%	11.46	10.13	16.25

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 205 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	< 1%
Chance if	22%	60%	89%	99.0%	99.98%	100%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 197 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	3.3%	18%	37%	32%	10%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	7%	30%	71%

Number of finalists from ESP; 169 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	28%	42%	24%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	53%	87%	99.2%	100%	100%

Number of finalists from ITA; 168 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	39%	31%	11%	1.4%
Chance if	1.4%	8%	26%	60%	96%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 161 mbit

n	2	3	4	5
Probability	18%	43%	31%	7%
Chance if	45%	82%	97.0%	99.95%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 158 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	1.2%	18%	47%	34%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	9%	44%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 77 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	54%	38%	7%
Chance if	71%	93%	99.8%

Number of tournament winners for ITA; 64 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	44%	43%	12%	1.1%
Chance if	9%	22%	43%	69%

Number of semifinalists from ENG; 39 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.9%	17%	37%	31%	11%	1.5%
Chance if	69%	95.3%	99.79%	>99.99%	100%	100%

Number of finalists from ENG; 28 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	8%	39%	39%	12%	1.2%
Chance if	88%	98.6%	>99.99%	100%	100%

 

PL: Liverpool win the league in 99% of the simulations

Liverpool have 99% clinched the league and Leicester, Ipswhich and Southampton are relegated in >90% of the simulations.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
70	Liverpool	88.8	+53	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	99.01%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
55	Arsenal	76.0	+40	< 1%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.87%	99.50%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.89%
47	Man City	67.4	+26	< 1%	97.3%	94%	87%	73%	< 1%	2.2%	10%	87%
51	Forest	66.1	+14	< 1%	94%	86%	73%	53%	< 1%	6%	18%	73%
49	Chelsea	64.0	+19	< 1%	88%	76%	57%	35%	< 1%	4.5%	35%	57%
47	Newcastle	63.3	+13	< 1%	82%	67%	47%	26%	< 1%	17%	28%	47%
46	Brighton	59.6	+6	< 1%	46%	28%	14%	6%	< 1%	19%	31%	14%
44	Bournemouth	59.3	+15	< 1%	49%	29%	15%	6%	< 1%	19%	34%	15%
45	Aston Villa	57.6	-4	< 1%	25%	13%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	14%	24%	7%
42	Fulham	54.4	+1	< 1%	9%	3.8%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	15%	1.4%
41	Crystal Palace	54.0	+2	< 1%	7%	3.0%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	13%	1.0%
38	Brentford	50.7	+2	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	1.1%	< 1%
34	Tottenham	47.9	+14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%
34	Man United	46.8	-8	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%
33	West Ham	46.0	-18	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	Everton	45.3	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Wolves	34.6	-22	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Leicester	26.1	-46	95.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Ipswich	25.4	-42	96.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Southampton	16.5	-59	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Liverpool	99.01%		72%	24%
Arsenal	< 1%			18%
Man City	< 1%	30%
Forest	< 1%	8%
Chelsea	< 1%			56%
Newcastle			28%
Brighton		13%
Bournemouth		15%
Aston Villa		14%		1.4%
Fulham		11%
Crystal Palace		9%
Tottenham				11%
Man United				9%

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	99.77%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	37%
League cup winners	100%	93%	85%
Sixth team	99.99%	99.88%	< 1%
Seventh team	98.2%	58%	< 1%
Eighth team	69%	15%	< 1%

Europa and Conference League

Probabilities after 1st leg below. The most likely semifinals are Lazio vs Frankfurt and Roma vs Lyon. In the Conference League the projected semifinals are Betis vs Fiorentina and Chelsea vs Wien.

 Portugal needs that both Guimares and Benfica reach the semifinals, which seems difficult given that Benfica lost at home versus Barcelona. Italy needs that all four teams advance to the quarterfinals, which is not impossible.

 

Europa League

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Lazio (92%)
		Lazio (68%) Bodoe Glimt (24%)
Bodoe Glimt (89%)
				Lazio (39%) Tottenham (20%) Frankfurt (19%) Bodoe Glimt (8%)
Frankfurt (81%) Ajax (19%)
		Frankfurt (39%) Tottenham (34%) Alkmaar (18%)
Tottenham (55%) Alkmaar (45%)
						Lazio (21%) Roma (13%) Tottenham (11%) Bilbao (11%) Lyon (11%)
Roma (58%) Bilbao (42%)
		Roma (43%) Bilbao (32%) Rangers (21%)
Rangers (88%)
				Roma (24%) Lyon (22%) Bilbao (19%) Man United (18%)
Lyon (98%)
		Lyon (46%) Man United (36%) Sociedad (17%)
Man United (66%) Sociedad (34%)

Conference League

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Betis (52%) Guimaraes (48%)
		Betis (41%) Guimaraes (31%) Jagiellonia (25%)
Jagiellonia (90%)
				Fiorentina (41%) Betis (24%) Guimaraes (13%)
Lugano (50%) Celje (50%)
		Fiorentina (58%) Panathinaikos (25%) Lugano (10%)
Fiorentina (64%) Panathinaikos (36%)
						Chelsea (56%) Fiorentina (19%) Betis (10%)
Chelsea (94%)
		Chelsea (86%)
Molde (62%) Legia (38%)
				Chelsea (80%) Rapid Wien (5%)
Paphos (61%) Djurgarden (39%)
		Rapid Wien (41%) Paphos (34%) Djurgarden (22%)
Rapid Wien (82%) Borac Banja Luka (18%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.78%	19.78	14.64	23.5
ESP	78%	17.04	13.93	22.07
ITA	20%	15.48	12.25	18.75
POR	1.0%	13.32	12.5	17.7
CYP	< 1%	13.98	13	16.83
NED	< 1%	13.16	12.33	17.42
GER	< 1%	12.86	11.5	15.63
GRE	< 1%	11.58	10.63	16.75
BEL	< 1%	13.17	12.7	17.5
FRA	< 1%	11.53	9.86	15.71
NOR	< 1%	11.46	10.13	16

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 234 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	7%	27%	37%	23%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	17%	57%	88%	98.6%	99.95%	100%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 207 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.8%	21%	42%	29%	7%
Chance if	4%	44%	82%	96.9%	99.93%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 191 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	3.3%	18%	37%	32%	10%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	8%	32%	70%

Number of finalists from ESP; 184 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	31%	42%	22%	4.9%
Chance if	49%	85%	99.1%	100%

Number of finalists from ITA; 163 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	39%	31%	11%	1.4%
Chance if	1.6%	8%	27%	61%	94%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 159 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	1.5%	18%	47%	34%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	10%	45%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 80 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	58%	35%	7%
Chance if	67%	91%	99.7%

Number of tournament winners for ITA; 61 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	44%	42%	12%	1.1%
Chance if	10%	23%	44%	68%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 44 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	47%	49%	4.7%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	21%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 41 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	66%	33%	1.5%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	48%

 

CL: Probabilities after 1st Leg

Updated probabilities after the 1st leg of round of 16. The two extra CL slots increasingly look to be given to England and Spain. See probabilities and conditional probabilities below.

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Liverpool (86%)
		Liverpool (70%) Aston Villa (19%)
Aston Villa (95%)
				Liverpool (39%) Arsenal (31%) Real Madrid (18%)
Real Madrid (71%) Atletico (29%)
		Arsenal (57%) Real Madrid (34%)
Arsenal (100%)
						Liverpool (24%) Arsenal (18%) Inter (16%) Barcelona (13%)
Barcelona (90%)
		Barcelona (63%) Lille (22%) Dortmund (10%)
Lille (66%) Dortmund (34%)
				Inter (35%) Barcelona (30%) Bayern (22%)
Bayern (92%)
		Inter (56%) Bayern (40%)
Inter (98%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.66%	19.79	14.36	23.79
ESP	87%	17.54	13.64	22.5
ITA	12%	15.29	11.75	18.88
POR	< 1%	13.07	12.3	17.7
CYP	< 1%	13.57	12.33	16.83
BEL	< 1%	13.56	12.7	17.9
NED	< 1%	13.3	12	17.75
GRE	< 1%	11.73	10.13	17.25
GER	< 1%	12.51	11.25	15.63
FRA	< 1%	11.3	9.57	15.71
NOR	< 1%	10.65	9.13	16

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 168 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	4.6%	21%	35%	28%	10%	1.3%
Chance if	29%	67%	92%	99.1%	99.97%	100%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 163 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	< 1%	11%	34%	39%	15%
Chance if	5%	47%	83%	97.4%	99.95%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 142 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	3.6%	21%	39%	29%	7%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	4.4%	21%	61%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 130 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	2.7%	20%	49%	28%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	5%	35%

Number of finalists from ESP; 130 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	26%	42%	25%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	63%	91%	99.5%	100%	100%

Number of finalists from ITA; 121 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	41%	31%	9%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	4.4%	17%	46%	89%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 58 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	54%	38%	8%	< 1%
Chance if	79%	95.2%	99.8%	100%

Number of tournament winners for ITA; 44 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	46%	41%	12%	1.1%
Chance if	5%	14%	30%	53%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 27 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	61%	36%	3.1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	17%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 26 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	76%	23%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	41%

 

CL: Matchday 1 of Round of 16

Updated bracket after matchday 1. England now get the extra CL slot in >99% of the simulations and Spain are likely (83%) and if they have four teams in the quarterfinals their probability increases to 98%.

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Liverpool (62%) Paris SG (38%)
		Liverpool (50%) Paris SG (28%) Aston Villa (21%)
Aston Villa (95%)
				Arsenal (32%) Liverpool (28%) Real Madrid (19%) Paris SG (12%)
Real Madrid (71%) Atletico (29%)
		Arsenal (57%) Real Madrid (34%)
Arsenal (100%)
						Arsenal (19%) Liverpool (17%) Inter (14%) Barcelona (11%) Real Madrid (11%)
Barcelona (72%) Benfica (28%)
		Barcelona (50%) Lille (25%) Benfica (13%)
Lille (66%) Dortmund (34%)
				Inter (30%) Barcelona (25%) Bayern (14%) Leverkusen (14%)
Leverkusen (50%) Bayern (50%)
		Inter (46%) Bayern (24%) Leverkusen (24%)
Inter (79%) Feyenoord (21%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.23%	19.37	14.07	23.64
ESP	83%	17.23	13.36	22.36
ITA	13%	15.05	11.5	18.75
POR	2.4%	13.45	12.3	18.1
NED	< 1%	13.55	12	18.25
CYP	< 1%	13.57	12.33	16.83
BEL	< 1%	13.56	12.7	17.9
GRE	< 1%	11.73	10.13	17.25
GER	< 1%	12.57	11.25	15.63
FRA	< 1%	11.73	9.57	15.86
NOR	< 1%	10.65	9.13	16

 Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 218 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.3%	15%	36%	35%	12%
Chance if	5%	46%	85%	97.8%	99.95%