Spain and England get extra CL slot

Spain secured the extra CL slot last night.

Tottenham (39%) are favorites in EL followed by Bilbao (32%). In Conference League, Chelsea are favorites winning in more than half the simulations.

Europa League

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Bodoe Glimt (100%)
		Tottenham (77%) Bodoe Glimt (23%)
Tottenham (100%)
				Tottenham (39%) Bilbao (32%) Man United (21%)
Bilbao (100%)
		Bilbao (58%) Man United (42%)
Man United (100%)

 

 Conference League

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Betis (100%)
		Fiorentina (58%) Betis (42%)
Fiorentina (100%)
				Chelsea (59%) Fiorentina (24%) Betis (15%)
Chelsea (100%)
		Chelsea (93%)
Djurgarden (100%)

 

 

Champions League - Final Four

The simulations have been run and below are the outcomes.

Italy still has a theoretical chance to get the extra CL slot. They probably need to win all three tournaments and more urgent both Bilbao and Betis probably need to be knocked out tonight - or at least one of them.

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (100%)
		Arsenal (58%) Paris SG (42%)
Arsenal (100%)
				Arsenal (32%) Inter (27%) Paris SG (21%) Barcelona (20%)
Barcelona (100%)
		Inter (55%) Barcelona (45%)
Inter (100%)

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	20.2	18	22.07
ESP	99.86%	17.7	16.14	19.07
ITA	< 1%	15.39	14.06	16.63

Number of finalists from ITA; 5 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	15%	43%	36%	6%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%

Number of finalists from ESP; 4 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	17%	41%	33%	9%
Chance if	99.0%	100%	100%	100%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 4 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	1.3%	23%	75%
Chance if	96%	99.5%	>99.99%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 2 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	1.5%	62%	36%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 2 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	49%	40%	10%	< 1%
Chance if	99.65%	100%	100%	100%

Number of tournament winners for ITA; 1 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	50%	40%	10%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%

CL: Arsenal vs Inter is the most likely final in simulations

Despite that PSG and Barca already are through to the semifinals, the most frequent final in the simulations is the one between Arsenal (53) and Inter (47%).

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (100%)
		Arsenal (53%) Paris SG (42%)
Arsenal (92%)
				Arsenal (30%) Inter (23%) Paris SG (22%) Barcelona (20%)
Barcelona (100%)
		Inter (47%) Barcelona (46%)
Inter (84%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	19.98	17.5	22.07
ESP	99.93%	17.93	16.14	20.36
ITA	< 1%	15.35	13.75	16.75

Number of finalists from ITA; 3 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	18%	45%	32%	5%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 2 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	1.2%	22%	71%	6%
Chance if	97%	99.7%	>99.99%	100%

Number of finalists from ESP; 2 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	16%	40%	33%	10%
Chance if	99.4%	100%	100%	100%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 1 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	11%	58%	30%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 1 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	48%	40%	11%	< 1%
Chance if	99.81%	100%	100%	100%

Number of tournament winners for ITA; 1 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	52%	38%	9%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%

 

PL: Bournemouth take the chance to stay in the Europa race

Bournemouth beat Fulham with an early goal and stay in the race for an Europa spot. It looks like City, Newcastle and Forest will join Liverpool and Arsenal in CL (possibly followed by Spurs or Man U). Chelsea and Villa challenge, and Bournemouth, Fulham, and Brighton challenge in turn for EL spots.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
76	Liverpool	88.1	+49	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	99.80%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
63	Arsenal	75.4	+37	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.85%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
55	Man City	67.0	+26	< 1%	99.15%	95.9%	88%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	88%
56	Newcastle	66.7	+18	< 1%	98.6%	93%	81%	59%	< 1%	2.7%	17%	81%
57	Forest	65.8	+14	< 1%	98.1%	90%	72%	43%	< 1%	2.8%	25%	72%
54	Chelsea	62.8	+18	< 1%	89%	65%	37%	18%	< 1%	4.6%	57%	37%
54	Aston Villa	61.9	+2	< 1%	76%	44%	20%	9%	< 1%	15%	54%	21%
48	Fulham	56.4	+4	< 1%	15%	5.0%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	22%	10%	1.1%
48	Bournemouth	56.2	+12	< 1%	13%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25%	9%	< 1%
48	Brighton	56.0	+1	< 1%	10%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	7%	< 1%
43	Brentford	51.9	+5	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	51.7	-1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.0%	20%	< 1%
38	Everton	46.2	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
38	Man United	46.2	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%
37	Tottenham	45.0	+10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%
35	West Ham	43.8	-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	Wolves	41.9	-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Ipswich	26.0	-40	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Leicester	24.1	-49	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Southampton	14.0	-62	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Liverpool	99.80%
Arsenal	< 1%			31%
Man City		47%
Newcastle			100%
Forest		16%
Chelsea				59%
Aston Villa		18%		< 1%
Crystal Palace		20%
Man United				16%
Tottenham				16%

Important matches for CL race
Aston Villa vs Newcastle (11%)	Home Win (45%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (31%)
Aston Villa	33%	14%	8%
Newcastle	71%	83%	94%
Fulham vs Chelsea (7.7%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
Chelsea	24%	33%	54%
Fulham	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
Forest	76%	73%	66%
Newcastle	83%	82%	77%
Tottenham vs Forest (5.3%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Forest	63%	73%	88%
Chelsea	40%	36%	31%
Aston Villa	23%	20%	17%
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace (5.1%)	Home Win (52%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (25%)
Newcastle	89%	76%	67%
Chelsea	34%	38%	41%
Aston Villa	19%	22%	24%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Fulham vs Chelsea (6.1%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
Fulham	20%	7%	3.6%
Chelsea	89%	94%	97.7%
Aston Villa vs Newcastle (6.1%)	Home Win (45%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (31%)
Aston Villa	85%	71%	62%
Newcastle	95.2%	98.2%	99.7%
Bournemouth	8%	11%	13%

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Brentford vs Brighton (9%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Brighton	16%	25%	45%
Brentford	10%	2.9%	< 1%
Fulham vs Chelsea (7.8%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
Fulham	49%	28%	18%
Chelsea	96.1%	98.4%	99.68%
Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth (7.7%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Bournemouth	23%	34%	56%
Fulham	36%	34%	27%
Brighton	29%	27%	21%

 

EL: Bilbao favorites

Bilbao, Tottenham, Man United and Frankfurt are favorites to win EL. Because Tottenham and Frankfurt play each other, their chances are obviously reduced.

In the conference Chelsea win almost six of ten simulations.

Spain has 99.96% clinched the extra CL spot. If all their teams advance the semifinals they will clinch it already next week.

Europa League

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Bodoe Glimt (63%) Lazio (37%)
		Frankfurt (32%) Tottenham (31%) Lazio (20%) Bodoe Glimt (18%)
Frankfurt (54%) Tottenham (46%)
				Bilbao (28%) Tottenham (16%) Man United (16%) Frankfurt (14%)
Bilbao (81%) Rangers (19%)
		Bilbao (48%) Man United (31%) Lyon (16%)
Man United (65%) Lyon (35%)

 Conference League

 

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Betis (93%)
		Fiorentina (59%) Betis (40%)
Fiorentina (98%)
				Chelsea (59%) Fiorentina (25%) Betis (15%)
Chelsea (100%)
		Chelsea (93%)
Rapid Wien (81%) Djurgarden (19%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	19.87	17.21	22.29
ESP	99.96%	18.08	15.93	20.64
ITA	< 1%	15.35	13.75	16.75

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 1 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	1.4%	22%	71%	6%
Chance if	98%	99.88%	>99.99%	100%

Number of finalists from ITA; 1 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	18%	45%	32%	5%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Number of finalists from ESP; 1 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	16%	40%	33%	10%
Chance if	99.7%	100%	100%	100%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 1 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	11%	58%	31%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 1 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	47%	41%	11%	< 1%
Chance if	99.90%	100%	100%	100%

CL: Barcelona and PSG favorites to go through.

England has clinched the extra CL slot. Spain is close (99.5%) and clinches it if three (of four) teams advance to semifinals.

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (91%)
		Arsenal (55%) Paris SG (38%)
Arsenal (92%)
				Arsenal (31%) Inter (23%) Barcelona (21%) Paris SG (19%)
Barcelona (99%)
		Inter (47%) Barcelona (45%)
Inter (84%)

 

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	19.79	16.64	22.57
ESP	99.52%	17.99	15.5	20.79
ITA	< 1%	15.6	13.5	17

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 14 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	4.3%	31%	59%	5.0%
Chance if	92%	99.5%	>99.99%	100%

Number of finalists from ESP; 12 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	18%	41%	32%	9%
Chance if	97.3%	>99.99%	100%	100%

Number of finalists from ITA; 10 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	13%	39%	37%	11%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.5%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 5 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	49%	40%	10%	< 1%
Chance if	99.0%	>99.99%	100%	100%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 3 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	6%	35%	59%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Number of tournament winners for ITA; 3 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	45%	41%	12%	1.2%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	4%

CL: Wins for Arsenal and Inter

Advantage Arsenal and Inter after the first quarterfinals. Italy need that all their three teams advance to semifinals while two or three of the Spanish teams are knocked out.

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (73%) Aston Villa (27%)
		Arsenal (58%) Paris SG (31%)
Arsenal (92%)
				Arsenal (33%) Inter (25%) Paris SG (16%) Barcelona (15%)
Barcelona (73%) Dortmund (27%)
		Inter (52%) Barcelona (33%) Bayern (9%)
Inter (84%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	>99.99%	19.95	16.64	22.86
ESP	98.4%	17.77	15.21	20.79
ITA	1.6%	15.63	13.5	17
GER	< 1%	13.14	12.31	15.38

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 45 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	1.1%	11%	39%	45%	3.6%
Chance if	55%	91%	99.5%	>99.99%	100%

Number of finalists from ESP; 32 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	22%	43%	28%	7%
Chance if	93%	99.83%	100%	100%

Number of finalists from ITA; 24 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	12%	38%	38%	12%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	9%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 13 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	52%	38%	9%	< 1%
Chance if	96.9%	99.90%	100%	100%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 10 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	6%	35%	59%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%

Number of tournament winners for ITA; 7 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	43%	42%	13%	1.4%
Chance if	< 1%	1.6%	4.0%	10%