Match Day 3 - Group H

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.9%	3	9	8-4	Zenit	99.83% if Valencia draw (or win) against Lyon; otherwise 96%
92%	3	6	5-4	Valencia	99% if they draw (or win) against Lyon; otherwise 68%
7%	3	1	2-5	Lyon	33% if they win against Valencia; otherwise 0.3%
2%	3	1	3-5	Gent	6% if they win against Valencia; otherwise 0.02%

Zenit and Valencia are likely to go through from this group, and they won as expected their matches.

Match Day 3 - Group G

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
86%	3	7	6-3	Porto	96% if they draw (or win) against Dynamo Kyiv; otherwise 57%
46%	3	5	4-2	Dynamo Kyiv	94% if they win against Chelsea; otherwise 34%
67%	3	4	5-2	Chelsea	89% if they win against Dynamo Kyiv; otherwise 35%
0.4%	3	0	0-8	M Tel Aviv	4% if they win against Dynamo Kyiv; otherwise 0%

This group is a three-horse-race. Chelse drew in Kiev and Porto won as expected against Tel Aviv. Next round Dynamo Kyiv will visit Chelsea, which will be a key game for this group.

Match Day 3 - Group F

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.2%	3	6	8-2	Bayern	99.82% if they win against Arsenal; otherwise 92%
58%	3	6	4-5	Olympiakos	93% if they draw (or win) against Arsenal; otherwise 25%
33%	3	3	5-5	Arsenal	72% if they win against Olympiakos; otherwise 6%
11%	3	3	2-7	Dinamo Zagreb	20% if they win against Olympiakos; otherwise 0.6%

Arsenal won surprisingly against Bayern, which gives them some hope in the group. Olympiakos importantly won against Zagreb, which makes Olympiakos and Arsenal the likely competitors about the second spot in this group. They will meet in Match Day 5 in Athens and if Olympiakos manage to at least draw there, they are likely to qualify for round of 16.

Match Day 3 - Group E

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.5%	3	7	5-2	Barcelona
45%	3	4	9-7	Leverkusen	84% if they draw (or win) against Roma; otherwise 22%
6%	3	3	4-8	BATE	29% if they win against Leverkusen; otherwise 2%
49%	3	2	7-8	Roma	71% if they win against Leverkusen; otherwise 8%

This week's roller coaster happened in Germany where Leverkusen played Roma. First Roma flipped 0-2 to a 4-2 lead, before Leverkusen scored two goals to equalize in the last five minutes. In the next round they will play again, but this time in Rome. As Barcelona most likely will qualify and BATE not, the match in Rome will be key deciding who'll be the runner up.

Match Day 3 - Group D

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
86%	3	7	4-1	Juventus	99.94% if they win against Man City; otherwise 72%
49%	3	6	5-4	Man City	94% if they draw (or win) against Sevilla; otherwise 50%
59%	3	3	4-4	Sevilla	65% if they win against Man City; otherwise 13%
5%	3	1	1-5	Gladbach	13% if they win against Sevilla; otherwise 0.6%

 Man City won against Sevilla after a late goal. They will meet again in Sevilla in next round, which will be a key match for the outcome of this group.

Match Day 3 - Group C

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
90%	3	6	5-3	Benfica	97% if they draw (or win) against Galatasaray; otherwise 42%
97%	3	6	7-2	Atletico	99% if they draw (or win) against Galatasaray; otherwise 58%
13%	3	4	4-5	Galatasaray	66% if they win against Benfica; otherwise 6%
0.2%	3	1	2-8	FK Astana	2% if they win against Galatasaray; otherwise 0.01%

Galatasaray grabbed the straw with a very important win home against Benfica. Benfica and Atletic are, however, still the favourites to qualify from this group.

Match Day 3 - Group B

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
78%	3	6	4-2	Wolfsburg	96% if they win against Man United; otherwise 61%
58%	3	4	4-4	Man United	82% if they win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 33%
46%	3	4	4-4	CSKA Moskva	86% if they win against Man United; otherwise 33%
17%	3	3	4-6	PSV	36% if they win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 6%

This group is as uncertain as before. Wolfsburg won against PSV and  CSKA Moskva and Man United drew in Moscow.

Match Day 3 - Group A

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.87%	3	7	6-0	Real Madrid	qualified if they win against Malmoe; otherwise 98.3%
98.4%	3	7	5-0	Paris SG	qualified if they win against Malmoe; otherwise 96%
0.9%	3	3	1-4	Malmoe	5% if they win against Paris SG; otherwise 0.05%
0.8%	3	0	0-8	Shakhtar	4% if they win against Paris SG; otherwise 0%

This groups is more less closed after Match Day 3 regarding which teams will be top 2. Madrid and Paris are fighting about the top seat, while Malmoe and Shakhtar fight about the third and a ticket to Europa League.

Playoff

Turkey became the best third and have clinched qualification to Euro16.

Seeded countries are Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ukraine, Sweden, and Hungary. They will be drawn against the unseeded countries: Denmark, Republic of Ireland, Norway, and Slovenia.

57% Bosnia and Herzegovina
67% Ukraine
68% Sweden
48% Hungary
56% Denmark
45% Ireland
27% Norway
32% Slovenia

Euro 16

Country	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
Austria	10	28	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Northern Ire	10	21	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Portugal	8	21	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
England	10	30	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Germany	10	22	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Spain	10	27	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Iceland	9	20	100	91	9	0	0	0	qualified
Belgium	9	20	100	79	21	0	0	0	qualified
Wales	9	18	100	21	79	0	0	0	qualified
Czechia	9	19	100	9	91	0	0	0	qualified
Poland	10	21	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Albania	8	14	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Russia	10	20	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Switzerland	10	21	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Romania	10	20	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Slovakia	10	22	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Italy	9	21	99.82	91	1	7	0.7	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Norway; otherwise 96%
Croatia	9	18	99.8	0	93	6	0.6	0	qualified if they win against Malta; otherwise 98%
Hungary	10	16	87	0	0	78	22	0	93% if Italy draw (or win) against Norway; otherwise 50%
Ukraine	10	19	64	0	0	0	100	0
Sweden	10	18	64	0	0	0	100	0
Denmark	8	12	60	0	0	0	100	0
Ireland	10	18	48	0	0	0	100	0
Turkey	9	15	44	0	0	9	72	19	56% if they draw (or win) against Iceland; otherwise 12%
Bosnia and H	9	14	41	0	0	0	81	19	49% if they draw (or win) against Cyprus; otherwise 0%
Norway	9	19	39	9	6	0	86	0	qualified if they win against Italy; otherwise 53%
Slovenia	10	16	34	0	0	0	100	0
Netherlands	9	13	17	0	0	0	19	81	38% if Iceland win against Turkey; otherwise 0%
Cyprus	9	12	2	0	0	0	16	84	46% if they win against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 0%
Israel	9	13	1	0	0	0	3	97	19% if they win against Belgium; otherwise 0%

Group A	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Iceland	9	20	100	91	9	0	0	0	qualified
2. Czechia	9	19	100	9	91	0	0	0	qualified
3. Turkey	9	15	44	0	0	9	72	19	56% if they draw (or win) against Iceland; otherwise 12%
4. Netherlands	9	13	17	0	0	0	19	81	38% if Iceland win against Turkey; otherwise 0%
5. Latvia	9	5	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Kazakhstan	9	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group B	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Belgium	9	20	100	79	21	0	0	0	qualified
2. Wales	9	18	100	21	79	0	0	0	qualified
3. Bosnia and H	9	14	41	0	0	0	81	19	49% if they draw (or win) against Cyprus; otherwise 0%
4. Israel	9	13	1	0	0	0	3	97	19% if they win against Belgium; otherwise 0%
5. Cyprus	9	12	2	0	0	0	16	84	46% if they win against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 0%
6. Andorra	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group C	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Spain	10	27	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Slovakia	10	22	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Ukraine	10	19	64	0	0	0	100	0
4. Belarus	10	11	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Luxembourg	10	4	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Macedonia	10	4	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group D	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Germany	10	22	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Poland	10	21	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Ireland	10	18	48	0	0	0	100	0
4. Scotland	10	15	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Georgia	10	9	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Gibraltar	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group E	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. England	10	30	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Switzerland	10	21	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Slovenia	10	16	34	0	0	0	100	0
4. Lithuania	10	10	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Estonia	10	10	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. San Marino	10	1	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group F	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Northern Ire	10	21	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Romania	10	20	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Hungary	10	16	87	0	0	78	22	0	93% if Italy draw (or win) against Norway; otherwise 50%
4. Finland	10	12	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Faroe Island	10	6	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Greece	10	6	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group G	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Austria	10	28	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Russia	10	20	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Sweden	10	18	64	0	0	0	100	0
4. Montenegro	10	11	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Liechtenstei	10	5	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Moldova	10	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group H	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Italy	9	21	99.82	91	1	7	0.7	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Norway; otherwise 96%
2. Norway	9	19	39	9	6	0	86	0	qualified if they win against Italy; otherwise 53%
3. Croatia	9	18	99.8	0	93	6	0.6	0	qualified if they win against Malta; otherwise 98%
4. Bulgaria	9	8	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Azerbaijan	9	6	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Malta	9	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group I	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Portugal	8	21	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Albania	8	14	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Denmark	8	12	60	0	0	0	100	0
4. Serbia	8	7	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Armenia	8	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Euro 16

Country	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
Austria	9	25	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Spain	9	24	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Germany	10	22	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Portugal	8	21	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
England	9	27	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Northern Ire	10	21	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Iceland	9	20	100	91	9	0	0	0	qualified
Belgium	9	20	100	79	21	0	0	0	qualified
Wales	9	18	100	21	79	0	0	0	qualified
Czechia	9	19	100	9	91	0	0	0	qualified
Poland	10	21	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Denmark	8	12	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Switzerland	9	18	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Romania	10	20	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
Italy	9	21	99.4	91	1	5	2	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Norway; otherwise 86%
Croatia	9	18	99.3	0	93	5	2	0	qualified if they win against Malta; otherwise 92%
Slovakia	9	19	98	0	93	0.6	7	0	qualified if they win against Luxembourg; otherwise 82%
Russia	9	17	95	0	87	0	13	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Montenegro; otherwise 57%
Ukraine	9	19	79	0	7	24	69	0	97% if they win against Spain; otherwise 51%
Hungary	10	16	77	0	0	57	43	0	89% if Spain draw (or win) against Ukraine; otherwise 56%
Sweden	9	15	72	0	13	0	87	0	93% if Montenegro win against Russia; otherwise 50%
Ireland	10	18	54	0	0	0	100	0
Turkey	9	15	48	0	0	8	72	19	56% if they draw (or win) against Iceland; otherwise 12%
Bosnia and H	9	14	45	0	0	0	81	19	49% if they draw (or win) against Cyprus; otherwise 0%
Norway	9	19	43	9	6	0	86	0	qualified if they win against Italy; otherwise 53%
Slovenia	9	13	39	0	0	0	100	0
Albania	8	11	32	0	0	0	100	0
Netherlands	9	13	17	0	0	0	19	81	38% if Iceland win against Turkey; otherwise 0%
Cyprus	9	12	2	0	0	0	16	84	46% if they win against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 0%
Israel	9	13	1	0	0	0	3	97	18% if they win against Belgium; otherwise 0%

Group A	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Iceland	9	20	100	91	9	0	0	0	qualified
2. Czechia	9	19	100	9	91	0	0	0	qualified
3. Turkey	9	15	48	0	0	8	72	19	56% if they draw (or win) against Iceland; otherwise 12%
4. Netherlands	9	13	17	0	0	0	19	81	38% if Iceland win against Turkey; otherwise 0%
5. Latvia	9	5	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Kazakhstan	9	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Netherlands need to beat Czechia while Turkey lose against Iceland; otherwise Netherlands have failed to qualify, which haven't happen since World Cup 86.

Group B	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Belgium	9	20	100	79	21	0	0	0	qualified
2. Wales	9	18	100	21	79	0	0	0	qualified
3. Bosnia and H	9	14	45	0	0	0	81	19	49% if they draw (or win) against Cyprus; otherwise 0%
4. Israel	9	13	1	0	0	0	3	97	18% if they win against Belgium; otherwise 0%
5. Cyprus	9	12	2	0	0	0	16	84	46% if they win against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 0%
6. Andorra	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	100

Bosnia meet Cyprus in the last round and need to win to ensure a ticket to playoff. Israel play Belgium and can snitch a plaoyff ticket if they and Bosnia and Cyprus draw.

Group C	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Spain	9	24	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Slovakia	9	19	98	0	93	0.6	7	0	qualified if they win against Luxembourg; otherwise 82%
3. Ukraine	9	19	79	0	7	24	69	0	97% if they win against Spain; otherwise 51%
4. Belarus	9	10	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Luxembourg	9	4	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Macedonia	9	3	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group D	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Germany	10	22	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Poland	10	21	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Ireland	10	18	54	0	0	0	100	0
4. Scotland	10	15	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Georgia	10	9	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Gibraltar	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group E	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. England	9	27	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Switzerland	9	18	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Slovenia	9	13	39	0	0	0	100	0
4. Lithuania	9	10	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Estonia	9	10	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. San Marino	9	1	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group F	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Northern Ire	10	21	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Romania	10	20	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Hungary	10	16	77	0	0	57	43	0	89% if Spain draw (or win) against Ukraine; otherwise 56%
4. Finland	10	12	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Faroe Island	10	6	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Greece	10	6	0	0	0	0	0	100

Group G	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Austria	9	25	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Russia	9	17	95	0	87	0	13	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Montenegro; otherwise 57%
3. Sweden	9	15	72	0	13	0	87	0	93% if Montenegro win against Russia; otherwise 50%
4. Montenegro	9	11	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Liechtenstei	9	5	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Moldova	9	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Russia are likely to qualify. Sweden can only steal the second spot if they win against Moldova and Russia lose against Montenegro.

Group H	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Italy	9	21	99.4	91	1	5	2	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Norway; otherwise 86%
2. Norway	9	19	43	9	6	0	86	0	qualified if they win against Italy; otherwise 53%
3. Croatia	9	18	99.3	0	93	5	2	0	qualified if they win against Malta; otherwise 92%
4. Bulgaria	9	8	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Azerbaijan	9	6	0	0	0	0	0	100
6. Malta	9	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Italy play Norway in last round while Croatia meet Malta. Norway qualify if they win against Italy. Croatia qualify if they win against Malta. If they draw, they qualify Norway lose against Italy.

Group I	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	Not Top3	Comment
1. Portugal	8	21	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
2. Denmark	8	12	100	0	100	0	0	0	qualified
3. Albania	8	11	32	0	0	0	100	0
4. Serbia	8	10	0	0	0	0	0	100
5. Armenia	8	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Euro 16 group D, F, and I

Group D	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	out	Comment
Germany	9	19	99.3	43	48	0.04	9	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Georgia; otherwise 89%
Poland	9	18	88	32	42	0	25	0	qualified if they draw (or win) against Ireland; otherwise 50%
Ireland	9	18	66	24	9.5	0.03	66	0	qualified if they win against Poland; otherwise 56%
Scotland	9	12	0	0	0	0	0	100
Georgia	9	9	0	0	0	0	0	100
Gibraltar	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	100

Germany need a point against Georgia to clinch qualification. If that happens, Ireland and Poland play about the second spot. Ireland need to win or draw with 2-2 (or more). If Germany lose and Ireland and Poland draw, all three countries end on 19p. An table with only this teams looks like

Ireland	6p
Poland	5p
Germany	4p

that is Ireland and Poland clinch qualification.

Group F	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	out	Comment
Northern Ire	9	20	100	58	42	0	0	0	qualified
Romania	9	17	98	42	51	2	5	0	qualified if they win against Faroe Islands; otherwise 86%
Hungary	9	16	78	0	7	56	37	0	91% if Spain draw (or win) against Ukraine; otherwise 62%
Finland	9	11	0	0	0	0	0	100
Faroe Island	9	6	0	0	0	0	0	100
Greece	9	3	0	0	0	0	0	100

Northern Ireland have qualified. Romania and Hungary fight about the second spot. Romania play Faroe Island at home, and Hungary play Greece away. Romania need to take at least as many points as Hungary in last round. If Hungary draws and Romania lose, so both countries end with 17p, Hungary qualifies on more away goals in internal games. Romania and Hungary drew 1-1 in Romania and 0-0 in Hungary. If Hungary ends third, which is very likely, they are the favourites (55%) to be the best 3rd and thereby avoiding playoff

Group I	m	p	qual	1st	2nd	best 3rd	playoff	out	Comment
Portugal	7	18	100	100	0	0	0	0	qualified
Denmark	8	12	87	0	70	0	30	0	qualified if Portugal draw (or win) against Serbia; otherwise 50%
Serbia	7	10	56	0	30	0	55	16	qualified if they win against Portugal; otherwise 39%
Albania	7	8	5	0	0	0	16	84	23% if they win against Armenia; otherwise 0%
Armenia	7	2	0	0	0	0	0	100

Portugal qualified. Denmark and Serbia fight about the second spot while Albania fight with Serbia about third spot. Serbia play Portugal in last round while Albania play Armenia. Serbia clinch second spot if they win against Portugal. If they draw they clinch the playoff spot as they have better results against Albania. If they lose and Albania win, Albania grab the playoff ticket.

CL Match Day 2

A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98%	2	6	6-0	Real Madrid	99.5% if they draw (or win) against Shakhtar; otherwise 91%
95%	2	6	5-0	Paris SG	98.6% if they draw (or win) against Shakhtar; otherwise 76%
6%	2	0	0-7	Shakhtar	25% if they win against Paris SG; otherwise 2%
2%	2	0	0-4	Malmoe	8% if they win against Paris SG; otherwise 0.5%

The question mark in this group was whether Shakhtar would be able to challenge Paris. With Paris winning against Shakhtar away (well they play in Lviv) the answer seems to be no and this group looks almost closed already. Quite likely Real Madrid and Paris will qualify (>90%).

B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
25%	2	3	4-4	PSV	47% if they win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 13%
52%	2	3	3-3	CSKA Moskva	73% if they win against Wolfsburg; otherwise 34%
56%	2	3	3-3	Man United	78% if they win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 40%
67%	2	3	2-2	Wolfsburg	82% if they win against Man United; otherwise 46%

This was the most open groups beforehand and after two matches and with each team with a win and a loss, not much as changed: the group is still wide-open.

C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
95%	2	6	4-1	Benfica	99.94% if they win against Galatasaray; otherwise 90%
92%	2	3	3-2	Atletico	98% if they win against Galatasaray; otherwise 77%
11%	2	1	2-4	Galatasaray	28% if they win against Benfica; otherwise 3%
2%	2	1	2-4	FK Astana	27% if they win against Atletico; otherwise 1%

The least uncertain group upfront and it looks like the favourites, Atletico and Benfica, will do the expected and qualify (>85%).

D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
91%	2	6	4-1	Juventus	96% if they draw (or win) against Man City; otherwise 75%
36%	2	3	3-3	Man City	75% if they win against Sevilla; otherwise 33%
62%	2	3	3-2	Sevilla	75% if they win against Man City; otherwise 30%
11%	2	0	1-5	Gladbach	17% if they win against Juventus; otherwise 2%

The most open group upfront with three equally good teams with 60% chance and a challenger in Gladbach. Juventus has won against both their greatest competitors, which means they must be favourites to win the group now. Very important matches between Sevilla and Man City in Match Day 3 and 4.

E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
88%	2	4	3-2	Barcelona	98.8% if they win against BATE; otherwise 84%
79%	2	3	5-3	Leverkusen	84% if they win against Roma; otherwise 43%
15%	2	3	4-6	BATE	46% if they win against Leverkusen; otherwise 7%
18%	2	1	3-4	Roma	43% if they draw (or win) against Leverkusen; otherwise 6%

The champions, Barcelona, started with a draw away in Rome and managed to turn around their match against Leverkusen. Leverkusen have done what you can expect with three points against BATE and a loss away in Barcelona. Roma lost against BATE and need good results against Leverkusen in next two matches.

F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99%	2	6	8-0	Bayern	qualified if they draw (or win) against Arsenal; otherwise 97%
51%	2	3	3-5	Olympiakos	70% if they draw (or win) against Arsenal; otherwise 26%
26%	2	3	2-6	Dinamo Zagreb	63% if they win against Olympiakos; otherwise 16%
23%	2	0	3-5	Arsenal	46% if they win against Olympiakos; otherwise 6%

One of the given groups beforehand with an outstanding favourite in Bayern. Bayern have virtually already qualified (>99%). Arsenal has had the most negative start of all team with two losses against Zagreb and Olympiacos and decreased their chance from 73% to 23%. Currently Olympiacos looks like the favourite to grab the second spot in this group.

G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
53%	2	4	4-2	Dynamo Kyiv	78% if they win against Chelsea; otherwise 36%
81%	2	4	4-3	Porto	97% if they win against Dynamo Kyiv; otherwise 65%
65%	2	3	5-2	Chelsea	80% if they draw (or win) against Dynamo Kyiv; otherwise 40%
0.9%	2	0	0-6	M Tel Aviv	4% if they win against Dynamo Kyiv; otherwise 0.2%

Chelsea and Porto favourites beforehand. Kyiv grabbed their chance with a win against Tel Aviv and a draw away against Porto. Chelsea lost away agsint Porto, which makes the matches between Chelsea and Kyiv and next rounds extra important.

H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
87%	2	6	5-3	Zenit	98.9% if they win against Lyon; otherwise 77%
89%	2	3	3-3	Valencia	95% if they draw (or win) against Lyon; otherwise 60%
20%	2	1	1-2	Lyon	45% if they win against Zenit; otherwise 9.4%
4%	2	1	2-3	Gent	13% if they win against Valencia; otherwise 1%

The two favourites, Valencia and Zenit, have done the expected while Lyon only drew against Gent in the first match.