PL: Silverware to Liverpool

 Liverpool won the season's first title, which means that the Europa Conference League slot likely goes to the eighth team (65%) in the league, probably Newcastle (18%), West Ham (18%) or Brighton (17%).

There is a 54% probability that City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Aston Villa, and Tottenham will play in CL next season. Of those, Tottenham (74%) is the biggest question mark, challenged by United (14%).

Hot Teams
Arsenal: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 6.1 more than expected
Man United: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 more than expected
Wolves: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 1.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
West Ham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Burnley: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Bournemouth: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected
Everton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 1.3 less than expected
Sheffield United: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 1.2 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
59	Man City	84.8	+49	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.97%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
60	Liverpool	83.2	+49	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.90%	35%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%
58	Arsenal	80.1	+48	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.42%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	99.90%
52	Aston Villa	69.9	+23	< 1%	99.59%	98.4%	93%	64%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	89%
47	Tottenham	67.2	+18	< 1%	97.9%	94%	80%	32%	< 1%	2.5%	23%	74%
44	Man United	61.1	+1	< 1%	74%	53%	16%	2.7%	< 1%	15%	55%	14%
37	Newcastle	56.2	+13	< 1%	37%	18%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	34%	3.5%
39	West Ham	56.1	-5	< 1%	30%	12%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	20%	9%
39	Brighton	55.4	+8	< 1%	28%	12%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	22%	8%
35	Chelsea	54.2	+3	< 1%	20%	8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	18%	1.4%
38	Wolves	53.0	-3	< 1%	11%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	10%	< 1%
32	Fulham	46.1	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	Bournemouth	45.4	-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%
28	Crystal Palace	42.0	-17	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Brentford	41.6	-11	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	Forest	37.0	-20	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%
21	Everton	36.7	-8	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Luton	32.5	-26	63%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Burnley	26.0	-39	96.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Sheffield United	23.1	-56	99.29%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	84%	43%	9%		26%	9%
Liverpool	100%	67%	22%	2.8%	8%
Arsenal	18%	< 1%
Aston Villa	34%	< 1%
Tottenham	< 1%
Man United	4.9%
Newcastle	7%
West Ham	7%
Brighton	9%	< 1%
Chelsea	3.5%
Wolves	1.9%
Bournemouth	2.0%
Forest	1.2%
Luton	< 1%

 

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Wolves (6.1%)	Home Win (58%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
Wolves	16%	23%	38%
Newcastle	64%	49%	39%

 

Simulated points for winner: 85 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 74
Simulated points for 17th team: 33 - 37

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Everton	41%	24%	35%	West Ham
Newcastle	58%	22%	21%	Wolves
Forest	19%	21%	60%	Liverpool
Tottenham	63%	20%	17%	Crystal Palace
Brentford	45%	24%	31%	Chelsea
Fulham	40%	24%	36%	Brighton
Luton	27%	23%	50%	Aston Villa
Burnley	42%	24%	34%	Bournemouth
Man City	75%	15%	10%	Man United
Sheffield United	16%	19%	64%	Arsenal

Most likely combo of teams in CL

54%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
4.8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham
4.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
4.4%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.1%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham
2.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
1.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
1.5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

59%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
16%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
15%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
2.4%	Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United
2.2%	Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United
1.5%	Everton, Luton, Sheffield United
1.4%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	100%	86%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	74%
League cup winners	100%	100%	99.99%
Sixth team	100%	96.9%	1.3%
Seventh team	97.4%	71%	2.2%
Eighth team	74%	9%	2.5%

EL/ECL: Last 16 decided

Germany is now ahead of England in the country race for extra CL spots, but England has strong contenders in all three competitions and finish top 2 in  86% of the simulations.

Europa League

Team	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Liverpool	81%	64%	49%	34%
Leverkusen	70%	45%	27%	14%
Milan	58%	35%	19%	10%
West Ham	61%	32%	15%	7%
Brighton	60%	31%	15%	6%
Atalanta	62%	30%	14%	6%
Benfica	51%	26%	13%	6%
Sporting	48%	23%	10%	4.3%
Roma	47%	23%	10%	4.0%
Marseille	42%	18%	7%	2.4%
Villarreal	47%	17%	6%	2.0%
Freiburg	40%	15%	5%	1.8%
Slavia Praha	43%	16%	4.9%	1.6%
Rangers	38%	11%	3.0%	< 1%
Sparta Praha	30%	9%	2.5%	< 1%
Karabakh Agdam	21%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%

Europa Conference League

Team	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Aston Villa	85%	66%	50%	34%
Fiorentina	75%	48%	28%	15%
Lille	73%	44%	24%	12%
Brugge	72%	40%	20%	9%
St Gillis	54%	31%	17%	8%
Fenerbahce	67%	36%	17%	7%
Ajax	47%	23%	10%	4.3%
M Tel Aviv	55%	22%	8%	2.7%
PAOK	52%	20%	7%	2.2%
Maccabi Haifa	34%	13%	4.6%	1.5%
Viktoria Plzen	48%	16%	4.4%	1.3%
Sturm Graz	32%	11%	3.1%	< 1%
Olympiakos	28%	9%	2.5%	< 1%
Molde	28%	8%	2.0%	< 1%
Dinamo Zagreb	26%	7%	1.7%	< 1%
Servette	25%	7%	1.5%	< 1%

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ITA	89%	20.02	15.86	26.71
ENG	86%	19.57	14.38	24.25
GER	20%	17.48	14.64	22.64
CZE	2.3%	15.25	13	22.5
FRA	1.6%	15.64	13.25	20.42
ESP	1.1%	15.69	13.31	20.31
BEL	< 1%	14.45	12.4	18.4

Important factors
GER 34% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 9.3%
GER 40% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 13%
GER 35% if Bayern reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 12%
ENG 93% if Liverpool reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 73%
GER 26% if Leverkusen reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 6%
GER 43% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 15%
ENG 94% if Liverpool reaches the EL final; otherwise 78%
GER 28% if Bayern reaches the CL quarterfinals; otherwise 8.7%
GER 45% if Leverkusen wins the Europa League; otherwise 16%
ENG 90% if Liverpool reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 68%

CL: Probabilities after R16 Leg 1

Thirteen teams with good (>20%) chances to reach the quarterfinals.

Champions League

Team	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Man City	99.53%	74%	54%	35%
Real Madrid	92%	58%	34%	18%
Inter	69%	39%	21%	10%
Bayern	61%	35%	19%	9%
Paris SG	85%	38%	15%	6%
Arsenal	53%	27%	13%	6%
Dortmund	67%	28%	10%	3.9%
Barcelona	67%	28%	10%	3.8%
Atletico	31%	14%	6%	2.3%
Porto	47%	16%	5%	1.6%
PSV	33%	12%	3.6%	1.2%
Napoli	33%	11%	3.6%	1.1%
Lazio	39%	12%	3.1%	< 1%
Sociedad	15%	5%	1.7%	< 1%
RB Leipzig	8%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
FC Kobenhavn	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ITA	84%	19.92	15.29	27.29
ENG	82%	19.58	14.75	24.63
GER	26%	17.72	14.21	24.93
FRA	4.2%	15.75	12.25	23.75
ESP	2.5%	15.98	13.19	21.44
CZE	< 1%	14.48	12.25	23.25
BEL	< 1%	13.86	11.8	20
TUR	< 1%	13.16	11	19.75
POR	< 1%	11.53	8.83	18.83
NED	< 1%	10.51	9.2	18

Important factors
GER 40% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 14%
GER 46% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 18%
GER 50% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL semifinals; otherwise 19%
GER 42% if Bayern reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 17%
ENG 90% if Liverpool reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 69%
GER 41% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL quarterfinals; otherwise 17%
ENG 92% if Liverpool reaches the EL final; otherwise 73%
GER 49% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 20%
GER 46% if Freiburg reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 20%
GER 32% if Leverkusen reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 11%

 

CL: Matchday 3 of Round 16

Italian team with another win yesterday while German Dortmund drew in Eindhoven. It's starting to look more and more as Premier League and Serie A will snatch the two extra CL slots (see table at the bottom).

Updated probabilities in Champions League below.

Champions League

Team	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Man City	99.53%	74%	54%	35%
Real Madrid	92%	58%	34%	18%
Bayern	61%	35%	19%	9%
Inter	61%	35%	18%	9%
Arsenal	69%	36%	17%	8%
Paris SG	85%	38%	15%	6%
Dortmund	58%	24%	9%	3.3%
Barcelona	58%	24%	9%	3.3%
Atletico	39%	18%	7%	2.8%
Napoli	42%	15%	4.5%	1.4%
PSV	42%	15%	4.5%	1.4%
Porto	31%	11%	3.4%	1.1%
Lazio	39%	12%	3.1%	< 1%
Sociedad	15%	5%	1.7%	< 1%
RB Leipzig	8%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
FC Kobenhavn	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	86%	19.81	14.75	24.75
ITA	82%	19.83	14.86	27.43
GER	24%	17.65	14.07	24.5
FRA	4.0%	15.75	12.25	24.25
ESP	3.1%	16.04	13.06	21.69
CZE	< 1%	14.47	12.25	23.25
BEL	< 1%	13.86	11.8	20.2
TUR	< 1%	13.16	11	19.5
NED	< 1%	10.6	9	18.2
POR	< 1%	11.25	8.5	18.17

Important factors
GER 37% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 13%
GER 43% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 16%
GER 46% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL semifinals; otherwise 18%
GER 39% if Bayern reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 15%
GER 38% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL quarterfinals; otherwise 16%
ENG 92% if Liverpool reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 74%
GER 46% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 19%
ITA 94% if Milan reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 76%
ITA 90% if Milan reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 72%
GER 53% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL final; otherwise 20%

 

PL: United hottest team in the league

The combination of Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton is relegated in 57% of the simulations.

Man United the hottest team in the league and has taken 13 points in the last five matches, compared with 7 points in the simulations. They have become an outside in the CL race, currently with 25% chance, challenging Aston Villa (82%) and Tottenham (69%). The probabilities highly depend on whether Premier League gets a fifth slot as one of the two best performing leagues in the competitions, currently 86%, but depends on the future results of the PL teams.

Hot Teams
Man United: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 6.0 more than expected
Arsenal: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 5.8 more than expected
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 more than expected
Wolves: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
West Ham: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 5.6 less than expected
Burnley: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 less than expected
Bournemouth: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected
Everton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected
Fulham: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
53	Man City	83.4	+50	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.88%	48%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
57	Liverpool	82.8	+48	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.83%	39%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%
55	Arsenal	79.2	+46	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.87%	98.9%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	99.75%
49	Aston Villa	69.1	+22	< 1%	99.0%	96.3%	86%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	82%
47	Tottenham	67.2	+18	< 1%	97.4%	92%	74%	35%	< 1%	2.6%	27%	69%
44	Man United	63.0	+3	< 1%	84%	65%	28%	8%	< 1%	10%	54%	25%
37	Newcastle	56.9	+15	< 1%	41%	18%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	35%	4.6%
38	Brighton	56.3	+8	< 1%	33%	14%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	24%	10%
36	West Ham	55.0	-6	< 1%	20%	7%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	13%	8%
35	Chelsea	54.1	+3	< 1%	18%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	35%	16%	1.2%
35	Wolves	52.2	-3	< 1%	8%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	8%	< 1%
28	Bournemouth	46.1	-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	< 1%
29	Fulham	44.0	-12	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Brentford	42.8	-11	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	Crystal Palace	41.0	-20	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	Forest	37.5	-20	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%
19	Everton	37.2	-8	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Luton	32.8	-25	62%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Burnley	26.9	-37	95%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Sheffield United	23.8	-56	99.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	83%	41%	8%		24%	8%
Liverpool	91%	56%	18%	2.2%	9%
Arsenal	20%	1.0%
Aston Villa	33%	< 1%
Tottenham	< 1%
Man United	4.9%	< 1%			< 1%
Newcastle	7%
Brighton	9%	< 1%
West Ham	7%
Chelsea	32%	1.0%
Wolves	1.9%
Bournemouth	2.0%
Forest	1.2%
Luton	< 1%

 

Simulated points for winner: 84 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 37

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Everton	50%	23%	27%	Crystal Palace
Man City	79%	13%	8%	Brentford
Liverpool	81%	12%	7%	Luton
Aston Villa	68%	18%	14%	Forest
Man United	59%	21%	20%	Fulham
Brighton	57%	22%	21%	Everton
Crystal Palace	58%	21%	21%	Burnley
Bournemouth	16%	19%	64%	Man City
Arsenal	61%	20%	18%	Newcastle
Wolves	66%	19%	15%	Sheffield United
West Ham	56%	22%	22%	Brentford

Most likely combo of teams in CL

44%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
13%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
7%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham
4.5%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
4.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham
3.9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
1.8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
1.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

57%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
14%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
14%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
5.0%	Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United
1.9%	Everton, Luton, Sheffield United
1.8%	Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United
1.7%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	100%	86%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	75%
League cup winners	100%	76%	71%
Sixth team	99.32%	97.0%	1.0%
Seventh team	92%	72%	2.2%
Eighth team	64%	9%	2.6%

 

EL/ECL: Betis in trouble

Betis, a predicted dark horse in Europa Conference League, is in trouble after losing 0-1 versus Zagreb.

Europa League

Team	Last 16	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Liverpool	100%	82%	64%	49%	34%
Leverkusen	100%	70%	45%	27%	14%
Milan	96.2%	56%	33%	19%	9%
West Ham	100%	61%	32%	16%	7%
Brighton	100%	61%	32%	15%	7%
Atalanta	100%	62%	31%	14%	6%
Benfica	81%	41%	22%	10%	4.6%
Sporting	97.4%	47%	23%	10%	4.2%
Roma	67%	32%	15%	7%	2.7%
Villarreal	100%	47%	18%	6%	2.0%
Marseille	74%	31%	13%	5.0%	1.8%
Slavia Praha	100%	45%	16%	5%	1.7%
Lens	43%	20%	9%	3.7%	1.5%
Freiburg	57%	23%	9%	3.0%	1.0%
Rangers	100%	39%	12%	3.0%	< 1%
Galatasaray	65%	24%	9%	2.9%	< 1%
Feyenoord	33%	13%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
Karabakh Agdam	89%	19%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%
Sparta Praha	35%	10%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
Shakhtar	26%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
Braga	11%	3.5%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
Toulouse	19%	4.3%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
Rennes	3.8%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Young Boys	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Europa Conference League

Team	Last 16	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Aston Villa	100%	85%	65%	49%	33%
Fiorentina	100%	75%	47%	27%	14%
Lille	100%	72%	44%	24%	12%
Brugge	100%	69%	38%	18%	8%
Fenerbahce	100%	66%	35%	16%	7%
Frankfurt	63%	35%	21%	11%	6%
Betis	41%	24%	14%	8%	4.0%
St Gillis	37%	20%	11%	6%	2.8%
M Tel Aviv	100%	54%	21%	7%	2.5%
PAOK	100%	52%	19%	6%	2.1%
Ajax	45%	21%	10%	4.5%	1.9%
Viktoria Plzen	100%	47%	15%	4.3%	1.3%
Bodoe Glimt	55%	21%	8%	3.0%	1.0%
Sturm Graz	97.4%	30%	10%	2.9%	< 1%
Gent	42%	17%	7%	2.5%	< 1%
Maccabi Haifa	58%	20%	8%	2.5%	< 1%
Olympiakos	71%	20%	6%	1.7%	< 1%
Molde	65%	18%	5%	1.3%	< 1%
Razgrad	64%	17%	4.9%	1.2%	< 1%
Dinamo Zagreb	59%	15%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%
Servette	36%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
Legia	35%	8%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
Ferencvaros	29%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
Slovan Bratislava	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	86%	19.81	14.75	24.75
ITA	82%	19.83	14.86	27.43
GER	24%	17.65	14.07	24.5
FRA	4.0%	15.75	12.25	24.25
ESP	3.1%	16.04	13.06	21.69
CZE	< 1%	14.47	12.25	23.25
BEL	< 1%	13.86	11.8	20.2
TUR	< 1%	13.16	11	19.5
NED	< 1%	10.6	9	18.2
POR	< 1%	11.25	8.5	18.17

Important factors
GER 37% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 13%
GER 43% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 16%
GER 46% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL semifinals; otherwise 18%
GER 39% if Bayern reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 15%
GER 38% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL quarterfinals; otherwise 16%
ENG 92% if Liverpool reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 74%
GER 46% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 19%
ITA 94% if Milan reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 76%
ITA 90% if Milan reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 72%
GER 53% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL final; otherwise 20%

 

CL: Lazio beating Bayer Munchen

With  Italian Lazio winning against German Bayern, it is starting to look like it will be Premier League and Serie A that are given extra CL slots.

Champions League

Team	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Man City	99.53%	74%	54%	35%
Real Madrid	92%	57%	34%	18%
Bayern	61%	35%	19%	9%
Inter	61%	35%	18%	9%
Arsenal	69%	36%	17%	8%
Paris SG	85%	38%	15%	6%
Dortmund	58%	24%	9%	3.3%
Barcelona	58%	24%	9%	3.3%
Atletico	39%	18%	7%	2.8%
PSV	42%	15%	4.5%	1.5%
Napoli	42%	15%	4.5%	1.5%
Porto	31%	11%	3.4%	1.1%
Lazio	39%	12%	3.1%	< 1%
Sociedad	15%	5%	1.7%	< 1%
RB Leipzig	8%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
FC Kobenhavn	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	87%	19.84	14.63	24.63
ITA	74%	19.4	14.57	27.14
GER	21%	17.43	13.78	24.64
FRA	9%	16.23	11.92	25.75
ESP	7%	16.51	13.06	22.19
CZE	1.5%	14.76	12.25	23.75
BEL	< 1%	14.23	11.6	20.6
TUR	< 1%	12.84	10.5	19.5
NED	< 1%	10.88	8.6	18.4
POR	< 1%	11.35	7.83	18.17

Important factors
ITA 89% if Milan reaches the EL quarterfinals; otherwise 63%
GER 34% if Leverkusen reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 11%
ITA 93% if Milan reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 68%
GER 40% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 14%
GER 36% if Bayern reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 13%
ITA 82% if Milan reaches the EL round of 16; otherwise 56%
GER 46% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL semifinals; otherwise 16%
GER 38% if Frankfurt reaches the ECL quarterfinals; otherwise 15%
ENG 93% if Liverpool reaches the EL semifinals; otherwise 75%
ITA 88% if Inter reaches the CL semifinals; otherwise 66%