Wednesday, November 16, 2016

World Cup: Asia

South Korea won the important match against Uzbekistan making them climb up to second spot in the table. In March Syria will host Uzbekistan in an important match. If Uzbekistan win that match, the group will split into a upper and lower half.













Group Am+/-pointsavg. simulated pRound 4PlayoffWorld Cup
Iran5+41120.199%95.0%91.9%
South Korea5+21019.598.0%94.2%90.5%
--------------------
Uzbekistan5+2916.084.7%61.0%45.3%
========
Syria5-1510.29.2%4.0%2.0%
Qatar5-349.67.3%3.5%1.8%
China5-427.42.0%0.95%0.46%


In group B Japan beat Saudi Arabia while Australia only drew in Bangkok. In March we will see a number of interesting matches here. Australia will play UAE in Sydney. Before that UAE will host Japan, and two losses there would be difficult to repair.

Group Bm+/-pointsavg. simulated pRound 4PlayoffWorld Cup
Saudi Arabia5+41015.962.6%38.9%31.7%
Japan5+31019.794.1%89.0%85.9%
--------------------
Australia5+3918.490.2%81.3%76.4%
========
United Arab 5+1915.350.4%31.2%24.6%
Iraq5-238.42.5%0.94%0.57%
Thailand5-915.90.13%0.03%0.02%


















Important Upcoming Matches

WinDrawLose


LoseDrawWinInformation (mBit)
86%68%47%Australia-United Arab Emirates15.3%30%56%123.636
45%22.9%13.0%United Arab Emirates-Japan71%85%95%109.118
5.0%1.1%0.22%Syria-Uzbekistan31.5%42%58%51.8208
41.4%23%16.0%Saudi Arabia-Iraq0.03%0.3%2.1%50.0318
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Tuesday, November 15, 2016

World Cup: Oceania


New Zealand started their campaign with a win and a draw against New Caledonia. In next round they will play a double match against Fiji and another four point would secure a spot in the playoff final.

In group B Tahiti and Solomon Island started with a win each. In next round PNG play double match against Tahiti and the group is still wide-open.




Group Am+/-pointsavg. simulated pFinalPlayoffWorld Cup
New Zealand2+248.488.7%80.6%5.9%
========
New Caledonia2-214.13.0%2.0%0.03%
Fiji0003.78.3%5.0%0.04%


Group Bm+/-pointsavg. simulated pFinalPlayoffWorld Cup
Tahiti2036.239.2%6.3%0.05%
========
Solomon Island2035.726.2%2.5%0.01%
Papua New Guin0005.134.6%3.6%0.01%
































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Monday, November 14, 2016

World Cup: Europe

Croatia (80%) won against Iceland (24) with 2-0. In another key match Wales (22%) and Serbia (38%) drew. Austria (7%) lost an important match against Ireland (69%). In Bucharest, Poland (91%) won an easy victory against Romainia (13%).


Next round is played in end of March with some interesting matches

WinDrawLose


LoseDrawWin
83%66%50%Ireland-Wales10.8%21.1%42%
89%73%57%Croatia-Ukraine10.6%20%40%
20.7%9.0%4.0%Romania-Denmark10.9%19.2%34%
88%76%58%Portugal-Hungary1.5%5.8%18%


Group Am+/-pointsavg. simulated pPlayoffWorld Cup
France4+51024.498.4%95.4%
--------------------
Netherlands4+4719.977.2%58.6%
========
Sweden4+3716.517.5%8.5%
Bulgaria4-4612.01.4%0.38%
Belarus4-428.60.14%0.03%
Luxembourg4-412.7-


Group Bm+/-pointsavg. simulated pPlayoffWorld Cup
Switzerland4+61224.897.1%75.9%
--------------------
Portugal4+13923.794.8%82.7%
========
Hungary4+5717.27.9%3.9%
Faroe Islands4-649.7<0.01%<0.01%
Latvia4-639.60.02%<0.01%
Andorra4-1201.6


Group Cm+/-pointsavg. simulated pPlayoffWorld Cup
Germany4+161227.499.9%99.9%
--------------------
Northern Irela4+6716.536.2%9.7%
========
Azerbaijan4-2712.21.1%0.07%
Czechia4-2516.327.1%10.0%
Norway4-2312.63.8%1.00%
San Marino4-1600.5


Group Dm+/-pointsavg. simulated pPlayoffWorld Cup
Ireland4+41020.982.3%69.4%
--------------------
Serbia4+4818.559.1%38.2%
========
Wales4+4616.433.6%22.4%
Austria4-1414.612.9%6.9%
Georgia4-227.00.13%0.03%
Moldova4-914.2<0.01%<0.01%


Group Em+/-pointsavg. simulated pPlayoffWorld Cup
Poland4+51022.496.5%91.4%
--------------------
Montenegro4+5713.815.7%5.2%
========
Denmark4+2615.937.8%19.9%
Romania4+2514.827.8%12.9%
Armenia4-639.70.95%0.21%
Kazakhstan4-826.70.06%0.01%


Group Fm+/-pointsavg. simulated pPlayoffWorld Cup
England4+61024.399%96.7%
--------------------
Slovenia4+2816.121.6%6.3%
========
Slovakia4+5617.450.9%24.8%
Lithuania4-259.60.29%0.05%
Scotland4-2414.613.4%5.4%
Malta4-902.1


Group Gm+/-pointsavg. simulated pPlayoffWorld Cup
Spain4+141024.497.7%87.6%
--------------------
Italy4+71024.198.2%83.9%
========
Israel4+3916.03.3%1.0%
Albania4-2613.10.59%0.21%
Macedonia4-706.5<0.01%<0.01%
Liechtenstein4-1502.4


Group Hm+/-pointsavg. simulated pPlayoffWorld Cup
Belgium4+201225.998.4%95.4%
--------------------
Greece4+71018.630.4%10.0%
========
Bosnia and Her4+3720.268.6%33.8%
Cyprus4-539.40.09%0.01%
Estonia4-10310.20.20%0.02%
Gibraltar4-1501.8<0.01%<0.01%


Group Im+/-pointsavg. simulated pPlayoffWorld Cup
Croatia4+91021.287.4%79.9%
--------------------
Ukraine4+4816.229.1%17.9%
========
Iceland4+1717.239.9%23.7%
Turkey40516.331.5%20.7%
Finland4-316.80.10%0.02%
Kosovo4-1114.60.01%<0.01%
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Sunday, November 13, 2016

World Cup: Africa

Egypt (79% won against Ghana (9%) making them favorites in group E. Also in group B we had a group final in which Nigeria (71%) beat Algeria (13%). Nextround will not be played until 28 August, when we have the following interesting matches:



Important Matches

WinDrawLose


LoseDrawWin
89%66%42%Nigeria-Cameroon2.5%15.0%40%
70%39%16.2%Tunisia-Democratic Republic of Congo28.0%58%82%
27.1%9.2%2.0%Uganda-Egypt59%80%94%
57.9%35%17%Senegal-Burkina Faso6.0%17%37%
3.5%0.7%0.05%Cape Verde-South Africa23.3%33%55%


Group Am+/-pointsavg. simulated pWorld Cup
Democratic Rep2+5611.648.7%
========
Tunisia2+3612.049.3%
Guinea2-305.71.4%
Libya2-504.80.54%


Group Bm+/-pointsavg. simulated pWorld Cup
Nigeria2+3612.070.6%
========
Cameroon2027.915.5%
Zambia2-114.31.3%
Algeria2-218.012.6%


Group Cm+/-pointsavg. simulated pWorld Cup
Ivory Coast2+2412.281.8%
========
Morocco2027.610.1%
Gabon2025.33.0%
Mali2-216.35.1%


Group Dm+/-pointsavg. simulated pWorld Cup
Burkina Faso2+247.811.3%
========
South Africa2+1410.337.7%
Senegal2+1310.749.4%
Cape Verde2-404.51.6%


Group Em+/-pointsavg. simulated pWorld Cup
Egypt2+3613.078.8%
========
Uganda2+148.412.0%
Ghana2-218.18.7%
Congo2-203.80.47%
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Friday, November 11, 2016

World Cup: South America

Brazil won the Clash of Giants against Argentina with a stunning 3-0. The other big clash finished goalless between Colombia and Chile. Uruguay took an important victory against Ecuador and now have 98% chance to qualify according to the model. Chile and Argentina, the finalist of the this year's Copa America, are now in somewhat of a problematic position.











Groupm+/-pointsavg. simulated pPlayoffWorld Cup
Brazil11+172436.199%99%
Uruguay11+152333.398.3%97.9%
Colombia11+31830.084.3%83.2%
Ecuador11+31726.137.1%35.2%
--------------------
Argentina11-11631.492.4%92.3%
========
Chile11-11529.180.2%79.5%
Paraguay11-51522.15.1%4.4%
Peru11-51120.62.8%2.6%
Bolivia11-14811.5<0.01%<0.01%
Venezuela11-12510.1

















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Thursday, November 3, 2016

CL: Match Day 4


Group E
Chancemp+/-
Key
85%487-3Monacoqualified if they draw (or win) against Tottenham; otherwise 57%
79%464-3Leverkusenqualified if they win against Monaco; otherwise 54%
31%442-3Tottenham70% if they win against Monaco; otherwise 9.2%
5%423-7CSKA Moscow13% if they draw (or win) against Tottenham; otherwise 0%


 Monaco won against Moscow. In London Tottenham hosted Leverkusen and the Germans took a very important win giving them 80% chance while Tottenham only have 30% chance to survive the group.


Group F
Chancemp+/-
Key
100%41011-3Dortmund
98%4812-7Real Madridqualified if they draw (or win) against Sporting; otherwise 89%
2%434-5Sporting11% if they win against Real Madrid; otherwise 0%
0%414-16Legia

Dortmund won against Sporting, which means they have secured qualification. Real Madrid failed to beat Legia, but can secure qualification with a draw against Sporting in next match.






Group G
Chancemp+/-
Key
99.7%4105-0Leicesterqualified if they draw (or win) against Brugge; otherwise 98%
71%474-3Porto94% if they draw (or win) against FC Kobenhavn; otherwise 31%
29%455-2FC Kobenhavn70% if they win against Porto; otherwise 6%
0%401-10Brugge

 Leicester failed to win in Copenhagen and secure qualification. Porto
won against Brugge giving the some advantage against Kobenhavn.


Group H
Chancemp+/-
Key
96%4106-0Sevillaqualified if they draw (or win) against Lyon; otherwise 90%
98.8%486-1Juventusqualified if they win against Dinamo Zagreb; otherwise 94%
5%444-3Lyon14% if they win against Sevilla; otherwise 0%
0%400-12Dinamo Zagreb

Lyon grabbed their last chance with a late (85th) goal against
Juventus. Sevilla only need one more point to secure a spot in round
of last 16, while Juventus need a win to be certain.

Winner \ Runner-upBarcLeicAtleSeviArseMonaRealDortBenfNapoPariJuveLeveBayePortBesiTottMan FCKGladPSVRostDynaCSKASporLyonCeltTotal
Barcelon
2%

7% 4%
8% 4% 5% 9% 8% 6% 12% 8% 3% 3%
4%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
93%
Leiceste1%
3% 7%
4% 8% 8% 4% 5% 7% 8% 6% 11%
3%


<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 82%
Atletico
2%

5% 3%
6% 3% 4% 7% 7% 5%
6% 3% 3% 14% 3% <1%

<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 79%
Sevilla
1%

4% 2%
5% 2% 3% 5%
4% 7% 5% 2% 2% 10% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% 60%
Arsenal<1%
2% 4%
2% 5% 5% 2% 3%
5% 4% 7% 5% 2%

2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 58%
Monaco<1% 1% 2% 4% 3%
4% 4% 2% 3%
5%
6% 4% 1%
9% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1%
<1% 56%
Real Mad
1%

4% 2%

2% 3% 5% 4% 3% 6% 4% 2% 2% 9% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% 56%
Dortmund<1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 2%

2% 2% 4% 3%

3% 1% 1% 8% 1%
<1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% 43%
Benfica<1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 3% 3%

3% 3% 2% 5%

1% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1%
<1%
<1% <1% 43%
Napoli<1% <1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 3% 3%

3%
2% 4% 3%
1% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% 42%
Paris SG<1% 1% 1% 2%

3% 3% 1% 2%
3% 2% 4% 2% 1% 1% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% 41%
Juventus<1% <1% 1%
2% 1% 3% 2% 1%
3%
2% 4% 3% 1% 1% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% 39%
Leverkus<1% 1% 1% 2% 2%
3%
1% 2% 3% 3%

3% 1%
6% 1%
<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% 36%
Bayern<1% <1%
1% 1% 1% 1%
<1% 1% 1% 1%

1% <1% <1% 3% <1%


<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 20%
Porto<1%
<1% 1% 1% <1% 1% 1%
<1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
<1% <1% 2%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% 16%
Besiktas<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1%

1% 1% <1% 1% <1%
<1% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% 14%
Tottenha<1%
<1% <1%

<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1%

<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% 7%
Man City

<1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

<1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6%
FC Koben<1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1%
Gladbach
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1%

<1% <1% <1%
<1%



<1% <1% <1%
<1%
PSV
<1%
<1% <1% <1%



<1%
<1%
<1%

<1% <1%







<1%
Rostov


<1%







<1%













<1%
Total6%16%20%35%41%30%41%56%32%37%58%59%43%77%53%26%20%91%29%1%1%<1%2%6%2%5%<1%





























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Tuesday, November 1, 2016

CL: Matchday 4



Arsenal turned around an early 2-0 deficit against Bulgaria, which
secured a spot in last 16. PSG also secured a spot and now this group
is only about who will win the group.

Group A
Chancemp+/-
Key
100%41012-3Arsenal
100%4109-3Paris SG
0%412-8Basel
0%414-13Razgrad





In Istanbul Besiktas scored a late (78th) and important 1-0 goal
against Napoli, but Napoli responded with an equally important equalizer a
few minutes later to stay ahead of Besiktas. Benfica did their job and this is now a three-horse-race.

Group B
Chancemp+/-
Key
81%479-7Napoli97% if they draw (or win) against Benfica; otherwise 65%
76%476-5Benfica94% if they draw (or win) against Besiktas; otherwise 40%
40%466-5Besiktas84% if they win against Benfica; otherwise 18%
3%412-6Dynamo Kyiv14% if they win against Napoli; otherwise 0%

Barcelona had the opportunity to secure a spot in last 16 against Man
City, but Man City came back after an early Messi goal and won
3-1. Gladbach failed to win againt Celtic, and most likely lost their
chance (P = 1%) to finish top 2 in this group.

Group C
Chancemp+/-
Key
99.8%4914-4Barcelonaqualified if they draw (or win) against Gladbach; otherwise 97%
98.4%4710-8Man City99.86% if they win against Celtic; otherwise 93%
1%444-7Gladbach6% if they draw (or win) against Barcelona; otherwise 0.1%
0.3%424-13Celtic4% if they win against Man City; otherwise 0%




Both Bayern and Atletico won as expected and will most likely take the
top 2 spots.

Group D
Chancemp+/-
Key
99.92%393-0Atletico
98.2%369-2Bayern99.7% if they draw (or win) against PSV; otherwise 92%
1%313-7PSV6% if they win against Bayern; otherwise 0.06%
0.6%312-8Rostov3% if they win against Bayern; otherwise 0.03%

Possible Last 16 match-ups:

Winner \ Runner-upBarcLeicAtleRealArseJuveSeviNapoBenfMonaPariTottDortBayeLeveBesiPortMan CSKAFC KLyonSporGladPSVDinaRostBrugLegiDynaCeltTotal
Barcelon
2%

7% 6%
5% 4% 4% 9% 5% 11% 11% 3% 3% 7%
2% 5% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
92%
Leiceste1%
3% 4%
7% 10% 5% 4% 4% 8%
11% 12% 3% 3%

2%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% 85%
Atletico
1%

5% 5%
4% 3% 3% 7% 4% 8%
3% 2% 6% 15% 1% 4% <1% <1% <1%
<1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% 81%
Real Mad
1%

5% 5%
4% 3% 3% 7% 4%
8% 3% 2% 6% 14% 1% 4% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% 79%
Arsenal<1%
2% 2%
4% 6% 3% 3% 2%

7% 8% 2% 2% 4%
1% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% 59%
Juventus<1% 1% 1% 1% 3%


2% 2% 4% 2% 5% 5% 1% 1% 3% 8% 1% 2%
<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 51%
Sevilla
1%

3%

2% 2% 2% 4% 2% 5% 5% 1% 1% 3% 8% <1% 2%
<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 47%
Napoli<1% <1% 1% 1% 2%
3%

1% 3% 2% 4% 4% 1%
2% 7% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% 43%
Benfica<1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3%

1% 3% 2% 4% 4% 1%

7% <1% 1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

<1% 42%
Monaco<1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 4% 2% 1%


4% 4%
1% 2% 7%
2%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 41%
Paris SG<1% <1% 1% 1%
2% 3% 2% 1%

2% 4% 4% 1% 1% 2% 6% <1% 1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 40%
Tottenha<1%
1% 1%
3% 4% 2% 2%
3%
4% 5%
1% 3%

2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 37%
Dortmund<1% <1% <1%
1% 1% 2% 1% <1% <1% 1% 1%


<1% 1% 3% <1% 1% <1%

<1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% 20%
Bayern<1% <1%
<1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% 1% 1%


<1% 1% 3% <1% 1% <1% <1%

<1%
<1%
<1% <1% 18%
Leverkus<1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1%
1%



<1% 1% 2%
<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% 14%
Besiktas<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%

<1% 1% <1% 1% 1% <1%
<1% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

<1% 13%
Porto<1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1% <1%
<1%
<1% <1% <1% <1%

<1% <1% 9%
Man City

<1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1%
<1%
6%
CSKA Mos<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1%
<1% <1%
<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

<1%
<1% <1% 6%
FC Koben<1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1%
<1%

<1% <1% 5%
Lyon<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

<1% <1%

<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1%

<1%
<1%
<1%
Sporting<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1%
<1%




<1% <1% <1%
Gladbach
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%


<1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1%







<1%
PSV


<1% <1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%


<1% <1%











<1%
Dinamo Z


<1% <1%




<1%





<1%











<1%
Rostov









<1%
<1%



<1%











<1%
Brugge




<1%



<1%

<1%















<1%
Legia
















<1%











<1%
Total6%12%18%19%40%46%47%36%33%29%59%29%76%79%25%26%49%91%14%36%6%3%1%1%<1%<1%1%<1%2%<1%


Each row represent a group winner and each column a group runner-up. Teams from the same group or same country cannot meet in second round.

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