PL: Arsenal the team to chase

Arsenal win the league in 83% of the simulations and on average finish 10.6 points ahead of Man City. The coming weekend Everton host Newcastle in a key match for the qualifications to the European competitions.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
29	Arsenal	81.8	+46	< 1%	99.98%	99.94%	99.85%	99.57%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	99.83%
22	Man City	71.2	+36	< 1%	97.8%	96.0%	93%	87%	11%	1.1%	6%	92%
18	Liverpool	68.0	+21	< 1%	93%	89%	83%	72%	3.9%	2.2%	12%	82%
23	Chelsea	64.1	+20	< 1%	82%	74%	63%	48%	1.5%	8%	20%	62%
21	Aston Villa	61.3	+11	< 1%	67%	56%	43%	29%	< 1%	6%	17%	59%
20	Crystal Palace	57.7	+9	< 1%	46%	35%	24%	14%	< 1%	7%	13%	55%
19	Bournemouth	57.1	+2	< 1%	41%	31%	20%	12%	< 1%	10%	22%	20%
15	Newcastle	56.8	+7	< 1%	41%	30%	20%	11%	< 1%	16%	25%	20%
19	Brighton	56.1	+5	< 1%	36%	26%	16%	9%	< 1%	10%	20%	16%
18	Man United	55.1	+2	< 1%	30%	21%	13%	7%	< 1%	9%	18%	13%
18	Tottenham	54.8	+7	< 1%	30%	21%	13%	7%	< 1%	9%	19%	13%
16	Brentford	52.4	+0	1.1%	17%	11%	6%	2.9%	< 1%	10%	13%	6%
18	Everton	50.9	-5	1.9%	12%	7%	4.0%	1.8%	< 1%	6%	9%	3.9%
14	Fulham	46.1	-10	9%	3.2%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.1%	3.7%	< 1%
12	Forest	42.3	-16	22%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	6%
19	Sunderland	39.9	-24	36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Leeds	39.3	-24	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Burnley	38.9	-22	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	West Ham	37.7	-26	51%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Wolves	27.1	-39	95.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	83%	26%	37%	22%
Man City	11%	15%	24%	11%
Liverpool	3.9%	15%		11%
Chelsea	1.5%	7%	18%	3.0%
Aston Villa	< 1%	5%		28%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	3.6%	3.4%	41%
Bournemouth	< 1%	3.8%
Newcastle	< 1%	6%	12%	2.7%
Brighton	< 1%	3.1%
Man United	< 1%	3.0%
Tottenham	< 1%	3.0%		< 1%
Brentford	< 1%	2.7%	2.9%
Everton	< 1%	1.8%
Fulham	< 1%	1.4%	2.0%
Forest		1.0%		6%
Sunderland		< 1%
Leeds		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
West Ham		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%

Important matches for CL race
Everton vs Newcastle (2%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Newcastle	14%	18%	26%
Everton	6%	3.2%	2.2

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Everton vs Newcastle (2.5%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Newcastle	38%	43%	53%
Everton	18%	12%	9%

 

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Everton vs Newcastle (2.5%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Everton	25%	17%	13%
Newcastle	54%	60%	68%

Chances in the European playoff

Sixteen countries will play in the playoff to determine the remaining four countris from Europe. The  countries have been seeded as below and simulations reveal their chances to advance from the playoff:

Pot 1
Italy   72%
Denmark 64%
Turkey  52%
Ukraine 56%

Pot 2
Czechia  26%
Wales    24%
Poland   20%
Slovakia 20%

Pot 3
Albania 6%
Ireland 5%
Bosnia  2%
Kosovo  3%

Pot 4
Sweden           19%
Romania          16%
North Macedonia  9%
Northern Ireland 6%

Scotland and Denmark in group final at Hampden Park

Scotland host Denmark in a group final. Scotland need to win, while a
draw is enough for Denmark to win the group and avoid playoff.

Similarly, Austria host Bosnia in a group final. Here Bosnia need to
win to snatch the group win, while a draw is enough for Austria to
avoid playoff.

In Group J, we have a match between Wales and North Macedonia deciding
who will be runner-up in the group. Both countries are guaranteed
playoff regardless trhough their NL results, but tre 2nd place is
important for the seeding and home pitch advantage in the
playoff. Wales need to win to grab the 2nd place, while a draw is
enough for North Macedonia. The match is also affecting Albania
significantly, as they will end up in seed pot 2 if North Macedonia
finish second.

 

Important matches

Scotland vs Denmark	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Scotland	100%	29%	29%
Denmark	63%	100%	100%

Austria vs Bosnia and Herzegovina	Home Win (85%)	Draw (10%)	Away Win (5%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	1.9%	1.8%	100%
Austria	100%	100%	63%

Wales vs North Macedonia	Home Win (63%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Albania	6%	15%	15%
North Macedonia	9%	6%	6%
Wales	25%	20%	20%

 Group B
Switzerland clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Kosovo (78%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
5	13	Switzerland	14.9	+13	100%	100%	99.98%	99.99%
5	10	Kosovo	10.9	0	100%	100%	< 1%	3.5%
5	3	Slovenia	4	-6
5	1	Sweden	2.8	-7	100%	< 1%	< 1%	21%

Group C
Denmark clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Scotland (62%)
Scotland clinch qualifications if they win against Denmark (38%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
5	11	Denmark	12.4	+11	100%	100%	62%	86%
5	10	Scotland	11.4	+4	100%	100%	38%	56%
5	6	Greece	8.2	-1
5	1	Belarus	1.6	-14

Group E

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
5	15	Spain	17.7	+22	100%	100%	100%	100%
5	12	Turkey	12.2	+2	100%	100%	< 1%	51%
5	3	Georgia	4.7	-6
5	0	Bulgaria	1	-18

Group H
Austria clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Bosnia and Herzegovina (95%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina clinch qualifications if they win against Austria (5%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
7	18	Austria	20.6	+20	100%	100%	95%	98.1%
7	16	Bosnia and Herzegovina	16.3	+8	100%	100%	5%	7%
7	10	Romania	13	+8	100%	< 1%	< 1%	18%
8	8	Cyprus	8	0
7	0	San Marino	0	-36

Group J
Belgium clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Liechtenstein (100%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
7	15	Belgium	18	+20	100%	100%	99.79%	99.92%
7	13	Wales	15.1	+5	100%	63%	< 1%	23%
7	13	North Macedonia	13.7	+8	100%	37%	< 1%	8%
8	8	Kazakhstan	8	-4
7	0	Liechtenstein	0	-29

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	At least Playoff	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
A	Germany	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
F	Portugal	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
D	France	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
K	England	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
I	Norway	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
J	Wales	100%	37%	63%	< 1%	23%
L	Czechia	100%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	27%
H	Romania	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	18%
B	Sweden	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	21%
J	North Macedonia	100%	63%	37%	< 1%	8%
A	Northern Ireland	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	7%

Playoff seed statistics

Group	Team	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1	Group Winner
J	Belgium	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.79%
I	Italy	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%
B	Switzerland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
C	Denmark	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	38%	62%
H	Austria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	95%
E	Turkey	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%
D	Ukraine	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	97.9%	< 1%
G	Poland	< 1%	< 1%	42%	58%	< 1%
J	Wales	37%	< 1%	62%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Scotland	< 1%	< 1%	62%	< 1%	38%
B	Sweden	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
L	Czechia	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Slovakia	< 1%	3.3%	96.7%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Romania	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
K	Albania	< 1%	65%	35%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Ireland	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	North Macedonia	63%	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Northern Ireland	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Bosnia and Herzegovina	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	5%
B	Kosovo	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

 

 

Germany and Slovakia in Group Final

Only interesting match tonight is between Germany and Slovakia. Germany need a point to win the group and avoid playoffs, while Slovakia need to win.

Important match

 

Germany vs Slovakia	Home Win (77%)	Draw (14%)	Away Win (9%)
Slovakia	21%	21%	100%
Germany	100%	100%	75%

Group A
Germany clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Slovakia (91%)
Slovakia clinch qualifications if they win against Germany (9%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
5	12	Germany	14.4	+9	100%	100%	91%	97.8%
5	12	Slovakia	12.4	+2	100%	100%	9%	29%
5	6	Northern Ireland	8.1	+1	100%	< 1%	< 1%	7%
5	0	Luxembourg	0.7	-12

 

 

Playoff seed statistics

Group	Team	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1	Group Winner
J	Belgium	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.80%
I	Italy	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%
A	Germany	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	91%
B	Switzerland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
C	Denmark	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	38%	62%
H	Austria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	95%
E	Turkey	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.80%	< 1%
D	Ukraine	< 1%	< 1%	6%	94%	< 1%
G	Poland	< 1%	< 1%	47%	53%	< 1%
J	Wales	37%	< 1%	62%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Scotland	< 1%	< 1%	62%	< 1%	38%
B	Sweden	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
L	Czechia	< 1%	< 1%	99.70%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Slovakia	< 1%	3.0%	88%	< 1%	9%
H	Romania	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
K	Albania	< 1%	65%	35%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Ireland	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	North Macedonia	63%	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Northern Ireland	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Bosnia and Herzegovina	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	5%
B	Kosovo	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

 Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	At least Playoff	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
A	Germany	100%	< 1%	100%	91%	97.8%
F	Portugal	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
D	France	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
K	England	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
I	Norway	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
J	Wales	100%	37%	63%	< 1%	23%
L	Czechia	100%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	27%
H	Romania	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	18%
B	Sweden	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	20%
J	North Macedonia	100%	63%	37%	< 1%	8%
A	Northern Ireland	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	7%

Decider between Ukraine and Iceland

Deciding match between Ukraine and Iceland. Ukraine need to win to reach the playoffs, while a draw suffices for Iceland.

Likewise, and almost deciding match in Budapest when Irelands visits. Ireland need to win to reach playoffs, while a draw suffices for hosting Hungary. With a win Hungary can win the group win but that requires that Portugal fail to win against Armenia. 

Important matches

Ukraine vs Iceland	Home Win (73%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (11%)
Ukraine	52%	< 1%	< 1%
Iceland	< 1%	4.1%	4.3%

Hungary vs Ireland	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Hungary	33%	31%	< 1%
Ireland	< 1%	< 1%	6%

Portugal vs Armenia	Home Win (93%)	Draw (5%)	Away Win (2%)
Portugal	100%	96.1%	84%
Hungary	26%	38%	73%

Group D
Ukraine clinch playoff if they win against Iceland (73%)
Iceland clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Ukraine (27%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
5	13	France	15.7	+13	100%	100%	100%	100%
5	7	Ukraine	9.3	-1	73%	73%	< 1%	38%
5	7	Iceland	7.5	+2	27%	27%	< 1%	1.1%
5	1	Azerbaijan	1.2	-14

Group F
Portugal clinch qualifications if they win against Armenia (93%)
Hungary clinch qualifications if they win against Ireland and Armenia win against Portugal (1%)
Hungary clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Ireland (86%)
Ireland clinch playoff if they win against Hungary (14%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
5	10	Portugal	12.8	+8	100%	100%	97.9%	99.52%
5	8	Hungary	10.2	+3	86%	86%	2.1%	28%
5	7	Ireland	7.6	-0	14%	14%	< 1%	< 1%
5	3	Armenia	3.1	-11

Group I
Norway clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Italy (37%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
7	21	Norway	21.7	+28	100%	100%	99.98%	>99.99%
7	18	Italy	20.1	+13	100%	100%	< 1%	70%
7	9	Israel	11.4	-2
8	4	Estonia	4	-13
7	1	Moldova	1.5	-26

 

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	At least Playoff	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
A	Germany	100%	< 1%	100%	91%	97.7%
F	Portugal	100%	< 1%	100%	97.9%	99.52%
D	France	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
K	England	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
I	Norway	100%	< 1%	100%	99.98%	>99.99%
J	Wales	100%	37%	63%	< 1%	24%
L	Czechia	100%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	26%
H	Romania	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	17%
B	Sweden	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	20%
J	North Macedonia	100%	63%	37%	< 1%	8%
A	Northern Ireland	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	7%

Playoff seed statistics

Group	Team	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1	Group Winner
F	Portugal	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	97.9%
J	Belgium	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.81%
I	Italy	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%
A	Germany	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	91%
B	Switzerland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
C	Denmark	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	38%	62%
H	Austria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	95%
E	Turkey	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.69%	< 1%
D	Ukraine	< 1%	< 1%	4.7%	68%	< 1%
I	Norway	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
G	Poland	< 1%	< 1%	37%	63%	< 1%
J	Wales	37%	< 1%	54%	9%	< 1%
F	Hungary	< 1%	< 1%	79%	4.5%	2.1%
C	Scotland	< 1%	< 1%	61%	< 1%	38%
B	Sweden	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
L	Czechia	< 1%	6%	94%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Slovakia	< 1%	38%	53%	< 1%	9%
H	Romania	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
K	Albania	< 1%	84%	16%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Ireland	< 1%	13%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
J	North Macedonia	63%	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Northern Ireland	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Iceland	< 1%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Bosnia and Herzegovina	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	5%
B	Kosovo	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

 

 

Key match for Scotland in Greece

The most interesting match tonight is when Greece host Scotland. Denmark and Scotland are currently on equal points and as Denmark is expected to win against Belarus, a point will be crucial for Scotland so a win against Denmark suffices to win the group.

In Group B, Slovenia host Kosovo i a key match in the race for the 2nd place and a spot in the playoffs. For Kosovo a draw is sufficient to clinch a spot in the playoff. A win would give them a chance to challenge Switzerland for the group win.

In Group H, Austria will most likely win the group and the question is whether Romania or Bosnia will be 2nd. Romania is three points behind Bosnia but with better goal difference. While Bosnia play Austria in the last round, Romania play San Marino, so the match tonight is crucial and the winner is likely to snatch the 2nd place. Romania is guaranteed a playoff regardless via NL, but advancing via a 2nd place gives a better seeding. 

 

Important matches

Greece vs Scotland	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Scotland	32%	56%	58%
Denmark	97.9%	86%	85%

Slovenia vs Kosovo	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Kosovo	2.0%	8%	13%
Switzerland	>99.99%	98.0%	95.9%
Slovenia	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%

Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Romania	Home Win (24%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (53%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	7%	1.2%	< 1%
Austria	97.8%	99.7%	99.66%
Moldova	< 1%	1.0%	1.2%
Romania	18%	14%	13%

 Group B
Switzerland clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Sweden and Slovenia win against Kosovo (53%)
Kosovo clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Slovenia (32%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	10	Switzerland	13.8	+11	100%	100%	97.8%	99.06%
4	7	Kosovo	8.5	-3	74%	74%	2.2%	4.5%
4	3	Slovenia	6.2	-2	22%	22%	< 1%	2.7%
4	1	Sweden	3.6	-5	100%	4.1%	< 1%	20%

Group C

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	10	Denmark	14	+14	100%	100%	79%	92%
4	10	Scotland	12.3	+4	100%	100%	21%	43%
4	3	Greece	7	-1
4	0	Belarus	0.9	-17

Group E
Spain clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Georgia and Bulgaria draw (or win) against Turkey (20%)
Turkey clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Bulgaria (92%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	12	Spain	17.1	+19	100%	100%	99.12%	99.92%
4	9	Turkey	11.7	+2	99.79%	99.79%	< 1%	53%
4	3	Georgia	5.1	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	0	Bulgaria	1.4	-17

Group H
Austria clinch qualifications if they win against Cyprus and Romania draw (or win) against Bosnia and Herzegovina (63%)
Austria clinch playoff if they win against Cyprus (84%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina clinch playoff if they win against Romania (24%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
6	15	Austria	20.3	+21	99.85%	99.85%	98.2%	99.22%
6	10	Romania	14.8	+11	100%	71%	< 1%	14%
6	13	Bosnia and Herzegovina	14.2	+5	29%	29%	1.6%	2.1%
7	8	Cyprus	8.3	-0
7	0	San Marino	0	-36	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group J
Belgium clinch qualifications if they win against Kazakhstan (74%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
6	14	Belgium	19.3	+22	100%	100%	99.87%	99.95%
6	10	Wales	14.9	+8	100%	66%	< 1%	25%
7	13	North Macedonia	13.7	+8	100%	34%	< 1%	8%
7	7	Kazakhstan	7.5	-6
6	0	Liechtenstein	0.1	-32

 

A tight final match day in central america

The group winners advance to the World Cup finals and the two best  runner-ups will play intercontinental playoff.

Group A 

A two-horse race in Group A where Panama and Suriname are on equal points. If both win, goal difference decides where Suriname has a three-goal advantage.

Panama clinch qualifications if they win against El Salvador and Guatemala draw (or win) against Suriname (69%)
Suriname clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Guatemala and El Salvador draw (or win) against Panama (6%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	9	Panama	11.5	+4	100%	94%	79%	88%
5	9	Suriname	9.6	+4	100%	65%	21%	29%
5	5	Guatemala	7.2	0
5	3	El Salvador	3.3	-8

Group B
A deciding group final in Group B, in which Jamaica need to beat Curacao to win the group. 

Jamaica clinch qualifications if they win against Curaçao (74%)
Curaçao clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Jamaica (26%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	10	Jamaica	12.4	+10	100%	99.82%	74%	84%
5	11	Curaçao	11.5	+8	100%	99.99%	26%	39%
5	6	Trinidad and Tobago	8.4	+3
5	0	Bermuda	0.4	-21

Group C 

Tight before the final matchday but advantage Haiti playing an eliminated Nicaragua. 

Haiti clinch qualifications if they win against Nicaragua and Costa Rica draw (or win) against Honduras (55%)
Costa Rica clinch qualifications if they win against Honduras and Nicaragua draw (or win) against Haiti (19%)
Honduras clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Costa Rica and Nicaragua draw (or win) against Haiti (13%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	8	Haiti	10.2	+2	94%	69%	59%	63%
5	8	Honduras	8.8	+2	47%	30%	22%	25%
5	6	Costa Rica	8	+3	60%	43%	19%	31%
5	4	Nicaragua	4.6	-7