CL: Match Day 3

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.8%	3	9	8-1	Man United	qualified if they draw (or win) against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 98.8%
78%	3	6	7-3	Basel	96% if they draw (or win) against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 46%
20%	3	3	3-7	CSKA Moskva	50% if they win against Basel; otherwise 3%
2%	3	0	1-8	Benfica	6% if they win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 0%

Man United won and have almost clinched advancement to playoff round. Basel took an important win against Moskva and since head-to-head matches decide in case of equal points, the late 2-0 goal by Basel can turn out very important in the end.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	3	9	12-0	Paris SG
98.2%	3	6	6-3	Bayern	qualified if they draw (or win) against Celtic; otherwise 87%
2%	3	3	3-8	Celtic	13% if they win against Bayern; otherwise 0%
0%	3	0	0-10	Anderlecht

This group is in principle already determined.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
90%	3	7	10-4	Chelsea	99.3% if they draw (or win) against Atletico; otherwise 71%
70%	3	5	5-4	Roma	96% if they win against Chelsea; otherwise 52%
39%	3	2	1-2	Atletico	59% if they win against Roma; otherwise 8%
0.1%	3	1	1-7	Qarabag	2% if they win against Atletico; otherwise 0%

Atletico failed winning away against Qarabag and their chances fell down to below 40%. Chelsea and Roma drew 3-3 giving both teams an important point. Group is still wide open between the three teams.

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	3	9	7-1	Barcelona
91%	3	6	4-4	Juventus	99.5% if they draw (or win) against Sporting; otherwise 62%
8%	3	3	4-5	Sporting	37% if they win against Juventus; otherwise 0.1%
0.6%	3	0	3-8	Olympiakos	3% if they win against Juventus; otherwise 0%

Barcelona can only miss this in theory. Juventus got a crucial winner in 84th against Sporting, which means Sporting has to beat Juventus in the return in Portugal.

Here are the likely match-ups in round of 16:

Winner \ Runner-up

Man

Barc

Besi

Man

Pari

Chel

Live

Real

Tott

Sevi

Baye

Roma

Atle

Shak

Spar

Juve

Port

Napo

Mona

Base

RB L

CSKA

Spor

Mari

Celt

Olym

Qara

Feye

Dort

Benf

Total

Man United

2%

1%

2%

7%

6%

12%

9%

4%

8%

5%

13%

5%

5%

3%

4%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

96%

Barcelona

<1%

1%

2%

2%

4%

6%

13%

9%

7%

6%

4%

4%

4%

2%

9%

3%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

88%

Besiktas

<1%

1%

2%

1%

3%

5%

5%

11%

4%

7%

6%

3%

5%

3%

8%

3%

7%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

86%

Man City

1%

1%

2%

6%

5%

10%

7%

4%

4%

11%

4%

2%

10%

4%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

83%

Paris SG

<1%

1%

1%

2%

3%

5%

5%

11%

4%

5%

3%

5%

3%

7%

3%

3%

7%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

80%

Chelsea

1%

1%

2%

5%

4%

8%

5%

4%

8%

4%

3%

2%

8%

3%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

68%

Liverpool

1%

1%

1%

4%

7%

5%

3%

5%

7%

3%

3%

2%

6%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

58%

Real Madrid

<1%

1%

2%

1%

3%

4%

6%

4%

4%

2%

6%

2%

2%

1%

6%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

57%

Tottenham

<1%

<1%

1%

2%

4%

3%

2%

3%

2%

5%

2%

2%

1%

4%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

42%

Sevilla

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

4%

3%

2%

2%

3%

1%

1%

<1%

3%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

30%

Bayern

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

19%

Roma

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

18%

Atletico

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

13%

Shakhtar

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

11%

Spartak Mosk

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

11%

Juventus

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

10%

Porto

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

6%

Napoli

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

5%

Monaco

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

3%

Basel

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

3%

RB Leipzig

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

3%

CSKA Moskva

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Sporting

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Maribor

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Celtic

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Total

3%

11%

12%

13%

19%

20%

28%

41%

55%

34%

78%

55%

23%

53%

36%

79%

37%

32%

21%

74%

29%

19%

8%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

2%

2%

CL: Match Day 3

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
88%	3	5	10-3	Liverpool	95% if they draw (or win) against Spartak Moskva; otherwise 42%
41%	3	5	7-3	Spartak Moskva	76% if they draw (or win) against Sevilla; otherwise 22%
70%	3	4	6-7	Sevilla	87% if they win against Spartak Moskva; otherwise 38%
0.9%	3	1	1-11	Maribor	5% if they win against Spartak Moskva; otherwise 0.1%

Tight group between Liverpool, Sevilla and Spartak Moskva.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
96%	3	9	8-1	Man City	99.85% if they draw (or win) against Shakhtar; otherwise 89%
64%	3	6	4-4	Shakhtar	96% if they draw (or win) against Napoli; otherwise 42%
40%	3	3	5-5	Napoli	63% if they win against Shakhtar; otherwise 6%
0.3%	3	0	2-9	Feyenoord	2% if they win against Shakhtar; otherwise 0%

Man City are very likely to advance to next round and Napoli are in trouble. Key match will be the game in Napels between Napoli and Shaktar.

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.2%	3	9	7-2	Besiktas	qualified if they draw (or win) against Porto; otherwise 94%
33%	3	4	4-5	RB Leipzig	59% if they draw (or win) against Porto; otherwise 11%
40%	3	3	6-6	Porto	62% if they win against RB Leipzig; otherwise 14%
29%	3	1	2-6	Monaco	58% if they win against Porto; otherwise 8%

Besiktas very likely to advance to next round and very tight about the second spot.

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.8%	3	7	7-1	Tottenham	99.8% if Real Madrid draw (or win) against Dortmund; otherwise 91%
99%	3	7	7-2	Real Madrid	qualified if they draw (or win) against Dortmund; otherwise 91%
2%	3	1	2-7	Dortmund	17% if they win against Real Madrid; otherwise 0.2%
0.1%	3	1	1-7	APOEL	1% if they win against Dortmund; otherwise 0%

Dortmund did not manage to win against APOEL and Tottenham stole a point in Madrid, which means the group is almost closed.

World Cup: CONCACAF

Mexico and Costa Rica had already qualified. USA needed a point against T&T or that Panama or Honduras did not win. Panama needed a win to secure playoff and to threaten USA about third place.

All these three team started bad. After 1st half USA were down 2-0, Panama were down 1-0 and Honduras were down 2-1 against Mexico. Panama equalized in 52 minute bringing them up to 11 points one behind USA and 1 ahead of Honduras. Honduras responded with equalizer against Costa Rica in 53rd minute giving the following table

3. USA          12 +4
4. Panama    11 -2
5. Honduras 11 -7

Seven minutes later, in the 60th minute, Honduras score 3-2 and jumped up to 3rd place, leaving USA 4th and Panama now out. In the 88th minute Panama scored a winner, which means they jumped up to third and Honruas finished 4th.



Group

	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Mexico	10	+9	21	21.0	100%	100%
Costa Rica	10	+6	16	16.0	100%	100%
Panama	10	-1	13	13.0	100%	100%
--------------------
Honduras	10	-6	13	13.0	100%	29.0%
========
United States	10	+4	12	12.0	-
Trinidad and T	10	-12	6	6.0	-

Honduras will play against Australia in the intercontinental playoff.

World Cup: South America

Brazil won at home 3-0 against Chile after goals from Paulinho and Grabriel Jesus (2), which means Chile only have 26 points and had to rely on other results.

Uruguay needed a point against Bolivia to be absolutely sure to avoid playoff, but startyed bad with a goal from Silva in 24th. Uruguay responded with Caceres (39th), Cavani (42nd) and Suarez (60th and 76th). Godin finalised the score to 4-2 and Uruguay got their tickets to Russia.

Argentina, who needed a win, to secure at least playoff, got a nightmare start with Ecuador scoring in the first minute. Messi responded with goals in 12th , 20th and 62nd. Argentina thereby had secured 28 points a spot in Russia next summer.

Paraguay did not manage to score against Venezuela, but instead Venezuela score a winner in 84th, which means Paraguay are out.

Colombia would need a win to clinch qualification and James scored in the 56th. Since Chile were losing Colombia needed only a point to secure 4th place. On the other hand Peru needed a point to climb ahead of Chile and clinch playoff place and in 76th minute Guerrero scored the important equaliser for Peru.

That means that Chile, Copa Americas Champions 2016 and 2015 will not participate in World Cup 2018. Peru will play New Zealand in playoff and Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina and Colombia have clinched qualifications.

Group	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Brazil	18	+30	41	41.0	100%	100%
Uruguay	18	+12	31	31.0	100%	100%
Argentina	18	+3	28	28.0	100%	100%
Colombia	18	+2	27	27.0	100%	100%
--------------------
Peru	18	+1	26	26.0	100%	85.5%
========
Chile	18	-1	26	26.0	-
Paraguay	18	-6	24	24.0	-
Ecuador	18	-3	20	20.0	-
Bolivia	18	-22	14	14.0	-
Venezuela	18	-16	12	12.0	-

World Cup: Europe

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
France	10	+12	23	23.0	100%	100%
--------------------
Sweden	10	+17	19	19.0	100%	45.5%
========
Netherlands	10	+9	19	19.0	-
Bulgaria	10	-5	13	13.0	-
Luxembourg	10	-18	6	6.0	-
Belarus	10	-15	5	5.0	-

France won and clinched group win. Sweden avoided huge loss and secured playoff.

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Portugal	10	+28	27	27.0	100%	100%
--------------------
Switzerland	10	+16	27	27.0	100%	57.0%
========
Hungary	10	0	13	13.0	-
Faroe Islands	10	-12	9	9.0	-
Latvia	10	-11	7	7.0	-
Andorra	10	-21	4	4.0	-

Portugal won against Switzerland and clinched qualification. Switzerland will play playoff.

Group H	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Belgium	10	+37	28	28.0	100%	100%
--------------------
Greece	10	+11	19	19.0	100%	25.9%
========
Bosnia and Her	10	+11	17	17.0	-
Estonia	10	-6	11	11.0	-
Cyprus	10	-9	10	10.0	-
Gibraltar	10	-44	0	0.0	-

Greece won against Gibraltar as expected and clinched place in playoff.

Sweden, Switzerland, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Denmark, Italy, Greece and Croatia will play playoff while Slovakia is the last runner-up.

World Cup: Europe

Group D	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Serbia	10	+10	21	21.0	100%	100%
--------------------
Ireland	10	+6	19	19.0	100%	48.2%
========
Wales	10	+7	17	17.0	-
Austria	10	+2	15	15.0	-
Georgia	10	-6	5	5.0	-
Moldova	10	-19	2	2.0	-

Ireland won against Wales as needed and took the playoff spot from Wales.

Group G	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Spain	10	+33	28	28.0	100%	100%
--------------------
Italy	10	+13	23	23.0	100%	78.8%
========
Albania	10	-3	13	13.0	-
Israel	10	-5	12	12.0	-
Macedonia	10	0	11	11.0	-
Liechtenstein	10	-38	0	0.0	-

Italy won against Albania, which means Italy will be seeded in playoff draw.

Group I	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Iceland	10	+9	22	22.0	100%	100%
--------------------
Croatia	10	+11	20	20.0	100%	63.5%
========
Ukraine	10	+4	17	17.0	-
Turkey	10	+1	15	15.0	-
Finland	10	-4	9	9.0	-
Kosovo	10	-21	1	1.0	-

Iceland won against Kosovo to clinch qualification. Croatia won deciding match against Ukraine and clinched playoff.

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
France	9	+11	20	22.7	100%	99%
--------------------
Sweden	9	+19	19	19.6	99%	45.5%
========
Netherlands	9	+7	16	18.3	0.59%	0.43%
Bulgaria	9	-5	12	14.1	-
Belarus	9	-14	5	5.2	-
Luxembourg	9	-18	5	5.7	-

In group A, Netherlands need to beat Sweden with seven goals steal the playoff spot. Sweden clinch the playoff if they are thrashed and can win the group if they beat the Dutch while France fail to win against Belarus.

Group H	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Belgium	9	+33	25	27.8	100%	100%
--------------------
Greece	9	+7	16	18.8	94.6%	23.8%
========
Bosnia and Her	9	+10	14	16.0	-
Estonia	9	-5	11	11.8	-
Cyprus	9	-5	10	10.2	-
Gibraltar	9	-40	0	0.1	-

Greece can clinch playoff with a win against Gibraltar. Bosnia and Herzegovonia cannot reach playoff because even if Greece fail to win and Bosnia and Herzegonia win against Estonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina end up with only 11 points in the runner-ups table, which would make them the last runner-up.

World Cup: Europe

Germany, Poland, England, Spain and Belgium have clinched qualification.

Important Matches

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
54.2%	0.00%	0.00%	Ukraine	-	Croatia	0.00%	6.6%	70.2%	682.803
64.9%	16.4%	0.00%	Wales	-	Ireland	0.00%	0.00%	55.2%	553.307
100%	71.6%	23.4%	Serbia	-	Georgia	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	323.732
100%	78.6%	78.7%	Portugal	-	Switzerland	58.2%	100%	100%	287.563
100%	68.0%	60.3%	Iceland	-	Kosovo	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	174.375

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
France	9	+11	20	22.7	100%	99%
--------------------
Sweden	9	+19	19	19.6	99%	46.8%
========
Netherlands	9	+7	16	18.3	0.58%	0.42%
Bulgaria	9	-5	12	14.1	-
Belarus	9	-14	5	5.2	-
Luxembourg	9	-18	5	5.7	-

France will clinched qualification if they win against Belarus (or take as many points as Sweden do against Netherlands). Netherlands need to win with seven goals against Sweden to steal the playoff spot from Sweden.

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Switzerland	9	+18	27	27.6	100%	72.3%
--------------------
Portugal	9	+26	24	26.2	100%	92.8%
========
Hungary	9	-1	10	12.8	-
Faroe Islands	9	-11	9	9.2	-
Latvia	9	-15	4	6.8	-
Andorra	9	-17	4	4.1	-

Portugal host Switzerland in last match. They need to win to win the group.

Group C	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Germany	10	+39	30	30.0	100%	100%
--------------------
Northern Irela	10	+11	19	19.0	100%	29.6%
========
Czechia	10	+7	15	15.0	-
Norway	10	+1	13	13.0	-
Azerbaijan	10	-9	10	10.0	-
San Marino	10	-49	0	0.0	-

Germany won the group and Northern Ireland have clinched a playoff spot.

Group D	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Serbia	9	+9	18	20.4	93.1%	87.7%
--------------------
Wales	9	+8	17	18.8	57.8%	37.1%
========
Ireland	9	+5	16	17.0	25.7%	14.2%
Austria	9	+1	12	14.2	-
Georgia	9	-5	5	5.5	-
Moldova	9	-18	2	2.6	-

Serbia can clinched qualification with a win against Georgia. Wales need to win against Ireland to be certain to clinch a spot in playoff. A loss means Ireland finish second and a draw likely means that Wales finish 9th runner-up.

Group E	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Poland	10	+14	25	25.0	100%	100%
--------------------
Denmark	10	+12	20	20.0	100%	47.3%
========
Montenegro	10	+8	16	16.0	-
Romania	10	+2	13	13.0	-
Armenia	10	-16	7	7.0	-
Kazakhstan	10	-20	3	3.0	-

Poland have qualified and Denmark can be certain of a spot in the playoff.

Group F	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
England	10	+15	26	26.0	100%	100%
--------------------
Slovakia	10	+10	18	18.0	50.5%	25.0%
========
Scotland	10	+5	18	18.0	-
Slovenia	10	+5	15	15.0	-
Lithuania	10	-13	6	6.0	-
Malta	10	-22	1	1.0	-

England have qualified. Slovakia need that either Croatia and Ukraine draw or that Wales and Ireland draw.

Group G	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Spain	9	+32	25	27.2	100%	100%
--------------------
Italy	9	+12	20	22.1	100%	79.9%
========
Albania	9	-2	13	13.7	-
Israel	9	-4	12	12.6	-
Macedonia	9	-4	8	10.4	-
Liechtenstein	9	-34	0	0.5	-

Spain have qualified and Italy will play playoff.

Group H	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Belgium	9	+33	25	27.8	100%	100%
--------------------
Greece	9	+7	16	18.8	94.6%	25.1%
========
Bosnia and Her	9	+10	14	16.0	-
Estonia	9	-5	11	11.8	-
Cyprus	9	-5	10	10.2	-
Gibraltar	9	-40	0	0.1	-

Belgium have qualified and Greece need to win against Gibraltar to secure playoff.

Group I	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Iceland	9	+7	19	21.6	100%	93.4%
--------------------
Croatia	9	+9	17	18.4	41.9%	29.3%
========
Ukraine	9	+6	17	18.3	36.3%	19.7%
Turkey	9	+1	14	15.8	-
Finland	9	-4	8	8.9	-
Kosovo	9	-19	1	1.3	-

Iceland can clinch qualification with a win against Kosovo. Croatia can clinch playoff with a win against Ukraine, while a Ukraine win would give them a place in the playoff. In case of a draw, Croatia becomes the 9th runner-up (and missing playoff) unless Wales and Ireland draw and highest number of goals scored will decide (currently: Croatia: 6 goals; Wales: 7 goals).

World Cup: Africa

Nigeria and Egypt have qualified.

Below are the most important matches in the last round in Africa.

Important Matches

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
100%	0.00%	0.00%	Ivory Coast	-	Morocco	0.00%	100%	100%	926.181
100%	100%	54.3%	Tunisia	-	Libya	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	244.621
100%	93.3%	56.4%	Senegal	-	South Africa	0.00%	0.00%	40.4%	244.451
20.7%	0.00%	0.00%	South Africa	-	Senegal	75.8%	97.2%	100%	133.484
18.6%	0.00%	0.00%	Democratic Republic of Congo	-	Guinea	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	99.9846

Group A

	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Tunisia	5	+7	13	15.0	90.6%
========
Democratic Rep	5	+5	10	11.7	9.4%
Guinea	5	-6	3	4.0	-
Libya	5	-6	3	3.8	-

Tunisia play Libya at home in last round and are favourites to win this group.

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Nigeria	5	+8	13	14.0	100%
========
Zambia	5	+1	7	8.2	-
Cameroon	5	-2	6	7.6	-
Algeria	5	-7	1	2.8	-

Nigeria clinched qualification with a win against Zambia.

Group C	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Morocco	5	+9	9	9.6	34.1%
========
Ivory Coast	5	+4	8	10.2	65.9%
Gabon	5	-5	5	6.3	-
Mali	5	-8	3	4.4	-

Ivory Coast will host Morocco in a last round decider. Ivory Coast nbeed to win to qualify.

Group D	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Senegal	4	+4	8	11.3	89.5%
========
Burkina Faso	5	0	6	7.6	2.1%
Cape Verde	5	-4	6	7.2	0.02%
South Africa	4	0	4	6.3	8.4%

Note that the match between South Africa and Senegal will be replayed due to misconduct by the ref. South Africa need to win both matches against Senegal, while for Senegal one point will probably suffice.

Group E	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Egypt	5	+4	12	13.1	100%
========
Uganda	5	+1	8	9.2	-
Ghana	5	+2	6	7.7	-
Congo	5	-7	1	2.6	-

Egypt won against Congo and clinched qualification since Uganda only drew against Ghana.

World Cup: North America

Costa Rica drew Honduras and are thereby qualified. The United States took an important (4-0) win against Honduras.

Group	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Mexico	9	+10	21	23.2	100%	100%
Costa Rica	9	+7	16	17.5	100%	100%
United States	9	+5	12	13.7	99%	94.4%
--------------------
Panama	9	-2	10	11.3	84.0%	45.2%
========
Honduras	9	-7	10	10.6	17.4%	6.8%
Trinidad and T	9	-13	3	4.1	-

In the lst round the USA need in principle only draw Trinidad and Tobago as they have got much better goal difference than both Panama and Honduras. Both Panama and Honduras have difficult home games although playing against already qualified Costa Rica and Panama, respectively. Honduras need to take more points than Panama in the last round to get to playoff (assuming USA don't lose against T&T).

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
34.8%	11.7%	0.02%	Honduras	-	Mexico	100%	100%	100%	138.315
0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	Trinidad and Tobago	-	United States	80.3%	99.99%	100%	107.919
62.4%	41.1%	32.5%	Panama	-	Costa Rica	100%	100%	100%	51.2099

World Cup: South America

Uruguay clinched qualification with a draw against Venezuela. Paraguay grabbed their last chance and won against Colombia, which also means Colombia's qualification is uncertain. Chile won against Ecuador, 2-1, after Ecuador had equalized with 5 minutes left, but Alexis responded immediately with a winning goal. In Buenos Aires Argentina did not manage to score against Peru, which means Argentina are in trouble and Peru have good chances to steal their spot in Russia.


Group

	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Brazil	17	+27	38	39.5	100%	100%
Uruguay	17	+10	28	30.5	100%	99.99%
Chile	17	+2	26	27.3	79.4%	78.6%
Colombia	17	+2	26	27.4	71.7%	70.7%
--------------------
Peru	17	+1	25	26.3	47.9%	46.1%
========
Argentina	17	+1	25	26.9	64.7%	64.3%
Paraguay	17	-5	24	25.8	36.3%	28.9%
Ecuador	17	-1	20	20.9	-
Bolivia	17	-20	14	14.3	-
Venezuela	17	-17	9	9.9	-

Below are the matches in the last round that are of importance. Five countries compete about 2.5 spots where the third spot will play a playoff against New Zealand.

Chile and Colombia clinch qualification with a win in the last match. Peru and Argentina also have qualifications in their own hands and can clinch at least a spot in playoff with a win in last match.

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
99%	31.5%	5.8%	Peru	-	Colombia	21.4%	97.8%	100%	825.381
0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	Ecuador	-	Argentina	6.4%	36.1%	99%	633.325
54.0%	0.00%	0.00%	Paraguay	-	Venezuela	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	334.04
100%	100%	100%	Brazil	-	Chile	49.0%	99%	100%	310.771

Paraguay need to win against Venezuela in the last match and then need to rely on that either
1) Brazil beat Chile or
2) Ecuador steal a point from Argentina.

If Argentina draw, they need two of the following to happen in order to at least finish 5th:
1) Paraguay fail to win against Venezuela
2) Colombia beat Peru
3) Peru beat Colombia with two goals (or more)
4) Brazil beat Chile with two goals (or more)

If Argentina lose, they need the following to happen:
1) Paraguay fail to win
2) Peru lose with more goals than Argentina lose

If Peru draw, they need two of the following to happen in order to at least finish 5th:
1) Paraguay fail to win against Venezuela
2) Argentina fail to win against Ecuador
3) Brazil beat Chile with two goals or more
4) Brazil beat Chile with one goal and Peru score more goal than Chile in the last match

If Peru lose they need the following to happen
1) Paraguay fail to win
2) Argentina lose with at least as many goals as Peru

If Colombia draw, they are virtually at least 5th (need Paraguay fail to win against Venezuela with 7 goals or more)

If Colombia lose, they need two of the following to happen
1) Paraguay fail to win
2) Argentina lose, or if Colombia lose with only one goal that Argentina fail to win
3) Chile lose with more goals against Brazil


If Chile draw against Brazil, they are virtually at least 5th (need Paraguay fail to win against Venezuela with 7 goals or more).

If Chile lose against Brazil, they need two of the following to happen:
1) Paraguay fail to win
2) Argentina lose, or if Chile lose win one goal and Argentina fail to win
3) Colombia beat Peru
4) Peru beat Colombia with more goals than Chile lose with (or if Chile lose with one goal and Peru draw Colombia, it gets into scored goals).

World Cup: Europe

Group C	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Germany	9	+35	27	29.9	100%	100%
--------------------
Northern Irela	9	+12	19	20.1	98.2%	26.9%
========
Czechia	9	+2	12	15.0	-
Norway	9	0	10	11.7	-
Azerbaijan	9	-5	10	10.1	-
San Marino	9	-44	0	0.0	-

Germany clinched qualifications and Northern Ireland had already clinched 2nd spot. With 13 point they have very good chances to end among the top-8 runner-ups and with another point against Norway on Sunday they have clinched playoff.

Group E	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Poland	9	+12	22	24.4	100%	97.9%
--------------------
Denmark	9	+12	19	20.8	98.2%	46.7%
========
Montenegro	9	+10	16	16.4	1.6%	0.31%
Romania	9	+2	12	13.0	-
Armenia	9	-16	6	7.4	-
Kazakhstan	9	-20	2	3.4	-

Poland have clinched at least playoff and need either a point against Montenegro or that Romania steals a point from Denmark to clinch ticket to Russia. Denmark need a point to clinch a place in playoff.

Group F	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
England	9	+14	23	25.4	100%	100%
--------------------
Scotland	9	+5	17	18.4	38.2%	15.0%
========
Slovakia	9	+7	15	17.8	40.7%	18.9%
Slovenia	9	+5	14	15.4	1.4%	0.35%
Lithuania	9	-12	6	6.4	-
Malta	9	-19	1	1.1	-

England clinched qualification with a late winner against Slovenia. In the last round, on Sunday, Slovenia host Scotland and Slovakia play Malta. If Slovakia beat Malta, which is very likely, Scotland need to win away against Slovenia to advance to playoff. Slovenia need a miracle involving Slovakia dropping points against Malta as well as themselves winning against Scotland.

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win
0.9%	0.00%	0.00%	Slovenia	-	Scotland	0.00%	1.6%	39.2%

Here are the current chances a runner-up has to qualify for the playoff given points and goal difference (not matches against 6th team should be excluded).

Chance	Point	GD
5%	11	3
10%	12	-1
15%	12	2
20%	12	3
25%	12	4
40%	12	5
60%	13	1
70%	13	2
80%	13	3
90%	13	4
95%	13	6

World Cup: Asian Playoff

The first match between Syria and Australia was played in Malacca, Malaysia. Australia took the lea din first half and seemed to win the game when Syria was given a controversial penalty in 84th minute and the match finished 1-1. Australia now have a 81% chance to advance to the intercontinental playoff, compared with 79% before the game. Syria more than doubled their chances with that late goal, bumping up from 7.3% to 19%.