After Day 3

Country	Quarter-final	Semi-final	Final	Champion
Brazil	100	81.5	58.9	46.3
Germany	100	70.5	27.5	17.6
Netherlands	100	77.7	43.9	14.4
Argentina	69.7	48	28.6	10.3
Colombia	100	18.5	7.14	3.33
France	100	29.5	6.47	2.81
United States	51	19.2	7.97	1.69
Belgium	49	18	7.32	1.51
Switzerland	30.3	14.9	5.97	1.21
Costa Rica	100	22.3	6.26	0.8

After Day 2

Country	Quarter-final	Semi-final	Final	Champion
Brazil	100	81.5	60	47.2
Germany	90.1	67.4	26.2	16.8
Netherlands	100	77.7	43.9	14.4
Argentina	69.7	48	28.6	10.3
Colombia	100	18.5	7.6	3.55
France	67.7	23.2	5.1	2.21
United States	51	19.2	7.97	1.7
Belgium	49	18	7.32	1.51
Switzerland	30.3	14.9	5.97	1.22
Costa Rica	100	22.3	6.26	0.808
Nigeria	32.3	6.77	0.817	0.223
Algeria	9.85	2.61	0.191	0.0343

Chances after Day 1 of the knockout stage:

Country	Quarter-final	Semi-final	Final	Champion
Brazil	100	81.5	60	48.1
Germany	90.1	67.4	26.2	17.3
Argentina	69.7	48	30.5	11
Netherlands	66.5	48.2	27.2	8.94
Colombia	100	18.5	7.6	3.72
France	67.7	23.2	5.1	2.33
United States	51	19.2	8.73	1.86
Belgium	49	18	8.03	1.66
Mexico	33.5	19.2	7.7	1.57
Greece	60.7	22.1	8.27	1.54
Switzerland	30.3	14.9	6.56	1.34
Costa Rica	39.3	10.6	2.98	0.385
Nigeria	32.3	6.77	0.817	0.238
Algeria	9.85	2.61	0.191	0.037

Summary after group stage


First of all I note that I've seen three different groups being referred to as "Group of Death". First group B having Chile, the third best team from South America, and the two finalists from 2010 in one group. Then group G was called group of death claiming that Ghana would be the best African team, US being the best CONCACAF team and Germany the best European team and Portugal having the best player in the world. Then I heard some people from the the Island claiming that Group D is "Group of Death" since it had three world champion nations. That is in my opinion the most ridiculous. Yes, it's true that Uruguay has won the cup twice but last time they won Elvis Presley was still a poor teenager that no one had heard of. The term Group of Death was coined 2002 and with this inflation rate all groups will be "Group of Death" within a decade or so. Yes, groups are difficult and you will play very skilled teams already in the group stage. It's the <insert arbitrary bomb word> world cup.

After the group stage it's interesting how the different confederations have done so far. One way to compare the confederations is to take all matches involving one team from a confederation, exclude draws (and matches between two teams from the same confederation) and count how many matches were won and lost, respectively.

Confederation	Wins	Loss	P
South America	13	3	0.004
Europe	13	9	0.28
North & Central America	5	4	0.51
Africa	3	9	0.14
Asia	0	9	0.004

Where a small P suggests that the confederation is not equal to rest of the world. Based on this South America is outstanding with only three losses and 5 of 6 teams advancing to knockout stage. One explanation could be that the tournament is held in South America, but that doesn't explain it all as if we remember last cup in South Africa all five South American teams advanced to quarter final except Chile who played Brazil in round of 16. No South American team was knocked out by a non-South American team before the quarter finals. If FIFA would consider to change the balance between confederations and they want it to reflect strengths of confederations, the first thing they should do is to give more seats to South America.

As impressive as as terrible have the Asian result been. Not one single victory and all four Asian teams finished last in the groups. FIFA's talk about increasing number of Asian teams is not motivated by their results. In 2010 two teams advanced to last 16 where they were knocked out, which is roughly what you can expect from a confederation with four teams.

The table below shows the chances for the remaining 16 teams

Country	Quart-inals	Semi-finals	Final	Champion
Brazil	81.7	66.7	49.1	39.3
Germany	90.1	67.4	29.8	19.7
Argentina	69.7	48	30.5	12
Netherlands	66.5	48.2	27.2	9.8
France	67.7	23.2	6.15	2.81
Colombia	50.2	12.2	5.02	2.46
Uruguay	49.8	12	4.91	2.39
United States	51	19.2	8.73	2.09
Belgium	49	18	8.03	1.87
Chile	18.3	9.14	3.74	1.82
Mexico	33.5	19.2	7.7	1.76
Greece	60.7	22.1	8.27	1.74
Switzerland	30.3	14.9	6.56	1.5
Costa Rica	39.3	10.6	2.98	0.442
Nigeria	32.3	6.77	1.03	0.301
Algeria	9.85	2.61	0.249	0.0482

and the figure below shows how the chances have evolved over time.

Most surprising teams so far are Costa Rica, Greece, and Mexico. Netherlands is the country that has increased their chances most (+5.6%).

May the best team win!

Group H

Algeria joins Belgium through from group H. They needed a draw against Russia and although they had a disastrous start, the draw was accomplished after an equalizer by Slimani in 60th.

Group G

Germany and the US advance to knockout stage. Ghana was one goal away from success when Germany's Muller scored in 55th and Gyan equalized in 57th. They couldn't wrap it uo, however, with a winning goal but instead Dauda threw the ball to Portugal's best player in the middle of the so-called slot - and the group was over.

 

Group E

France wins the group as expected and gets Nigeria next. Switzerland takes the second spot and will be play Argentina in round of 16.

Group F

Argentina won Group F with Nigeria as runner up. Nothing else ever really close when Iran could not challenge Bosnia and Herzegovina.

After some Hollywood drama the other day, The FIFA World Cup today presented some Greek drama. Greece managed to score the so needed winning 2-1 with the last (penalty) kick. They'll play Costa Rica in the next stage while Colombia play Uruguay on the other half of the bracket.

Costa Rica and Uruguay advance to next stage from group D.

Mexico and Brazil advance to next round from group A.

Summary After Match 2

Country	Chance	Before	Min	(minute)	Max	(minute)
Brazil	47.8	39.4	36.4	(28)	52.6	(179)
Germany	21.2	14.1	13.4	(5)	21.6	(153)
Argentina	10.2	7.9	7.8	(1)	12.3	(152)
Netherlands	4.8	3.0	2.3	(32)	6.8	(81)
Colombia	2.9	1.8	1.7	(2)	3.4	(110)
Chile	2.7	1.2	1.2	(0)	3.0	(157)
France	1.9	1.4	1.3	(41)	2.5	(157)
United States	1.1	0.84	0.69	(153)	2.0	(177)
Italy	1.0	1.5	1.0	(180)	2.5	(113)
Mexico	0.97	0.56	0.40	(28)	0.97	(180)
Belgium	0.95	0.62	0.51	(69)	1.0	(128)
Uruguay	0.79	1.7	0.41	(174)	2.1	(24)
Russia	0.77	0.84	0.46	(73)	1.2	(179)
Ivory Coast	0.46	0.22	0.13	(41)	0.65	(175)
Switzerland	0.46	0.69	0.44	(176)	1.1	(128)
Portugal	0.43	2.6	0.018	(178)	0.008	(179)
Greece	0.33	0.28	0.21	(124)	0.38	(154)
Ecuador	0.25	0.58	0.16	(123)	0.80	(44)
Croatia	0.21	0.28	0.21	(180)	0.37	(70)
Costa Rica	0.14	0.010	0.010	(0)	0.22	(177)
Nigeria	0.11	0.10	0.060	(110)	0.16	(152)
Iran	0.040	0.10	0.038	(90)	0.14	(157)
Japan	0.039	0.14	0.031	(179)	0.23	(63)
Ghana	0.011	0.050	0.010	(172)	0.009	(173)
Algeria	0.004	0.010	0.010	(0)	0.009	(21)
South Korea	0.004	0.060	0.010	(168)	0.009	(172)
Honduras	<0.001	0	0	(0)	0.009	(23)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	0	0.15	0	(180)	0.008	(175)
England	0	2.3	0	(180)	2.4	(23)
Spain	0	17.0	0	(180)	0.006	(176)
Australia	0	0.020	0	(180)	0.009	(64)
Cameroon	0	0	0	(0)	<0.001	(141)

Group G

Germany wins the group if they at least draw against the United States (82%). They come second if they lose and the winner of other match does catch up on goal difference, which gives them an estimated 99.7% chance to advance to last 16.

United States wins the group if they win against Germany (18%). They secure second place if they draw (20%). If the United States lose, they need either that other match is a draw or that Portugal wins with small margin. United States have two and five goals margin against Ghana and Portugal respectively. This gives United States 78% chance to advance to last 16.

Portugal needs to win against Ghana and they need to catch up 5 goals against United States (or 8 against Germany) giving them 12%.

Ghana needs to win against Portugal and hope that Germany defeats United States. If one of the wins is with at least two goals margin, Gahan ends second. If both wins are with one goal margin, most scored goals decides (US: 4; Ghana: 3). If United States defeats Germany Ghana needs to catch up five goals against Germany. In total this gives Ghana 9%.

With German coaches in both Germany and the United States, there will be suggestions that the former colleagues (WC06) have an agreement. The model predicts the chance for a draw to 20% even without taking into consideration the circumstances that there is a lot to lose for both team in case of a loss.

1.	Germany	6-2	4
2.	United States	4-3	4
3.	Ghana	3-4	1
4.	Portugal	2-6	1

Possible outcomes in Group G

P	First		Second
60%	Germany		United States
18%	United States		Germany
12%	Germany		Portugal
10%	United States		Ghana
<0.2%	United States		Portugal
<0.2%	United States		Ghana

Group H

Belgium is through to next stage. They are likely to win the group (96%). Only threat is Algeria if Algeria defeats Russia and Belgium loses against South Korea. Second seat is likely between Algeria (32%) and Russia (58%). Russia needs to win and if South Korea defeats Belgium they need to win with at least same margin as South Korea. Algeria secure advancement if they defeat Russia. In case of a draw Algeria come second unless South Korea defeats Belgium with three goals. South Korea's most likely scenario to come second is if Russia defeats Algeria with one goal and South Korea wins against Belgium with two goals. There are also chances if Algeria and Russia draw, but then Korea needs to win with a three goals as mentioned above. This give South Korea 3%.

1.	Belgium	3-1	6
2.	Algeria	5-4	3
3.	Russia	1-2	1
4.	South Korea	3-5	1

Group F

Argentina advances to last 16 after Messi's last curl. They'll win the group if they at least draw last match against Nigeria (86%). Nigeria win the group if they defeat Argentina (14%). In case of a draw both teams qualify (17%). Iran's chance is to defeat a knocked out Bosnia & Herzegovina and that Argentina defeats Nigeria. If both matches end with a one-goal-margin wins Nigeria survives if the they score at least as many goals as Iran. This gives Iran a 19% chance to come 2nd and Nigeria a 80% chance to advance to next stage.

1.	Argentina	3-1	6
2.	Nigeria	1-0	4
3.	Iran	0-1	1

Group E

France almost through (99.9%). They'll fail if Switzerland and Ecuador win their matches and catch up on the goal difference, which means Ecuador would win with four goals (against France) and total win margin would be at least eight goals, so for example if both matches finish 4-0 would do it. Honduras need to win with at least three goals against Switzerland, and then France need to beat Ecuador and if Honduras (only!) wins with three France needs to win with goals margin. Honduras chances are estimated to between 1% and 2%. Most likely the second ticket is between Switzerland and Ecuador, and there it's easy. Switzerland need a better results against Honduras than what Ecuador achives against France. If both wins, Switzerland needs to win with two more goals than Ecuador does. Similarly in the other end: if both teams lose Ecuador can lose with two goals with no risk. If the loss is three goals or more, Honduras is invited to the equation. This gives Ecuador and Switzerland 54% and 45%, respectively.

Group D

England is out. Costa Rica is through and wins the group if they take point against England or Italy and Uruguay draw or have better goal difference than winner of Italy Uruguay. Italy and Uruguay play decider in which a draw gives Italy last slot in knock-out (60%). The model gives the following probabilities:

47% 1. Costa Rica 2. Italy
28% 1. Costa Rica 2. Uruguay
12% 1. Italy 2. Costa Rica
11% 1. Uruguay 2. Costa Rica
 

 

Group C

Colombia are through and will most likely win the group (98%). Ivory Coast are through if they win or if they draw and Japan fail to win against Colombia. The model predicts this to add up to 58%. Greece qualify if they win against Ivory Coast and Japan fails to win. If Japan wins, Greece needs to win two goals greater margin than Japan (31%). Japan needs to win against Colombia and Ivory Coast must fail to win against Greece. If Ivory Coast draws, a two-goal victory will make it for Japan (or possibly a one-goal viktory with lots of goals). If Greece and Japans both win goal difference will decide, where Japan has a two goal advantage.

 

Group A

Cameroon is out. Croatia and Mexico play a deciding match where the winner qualify for knock-out stage. Brazil can miss qualification if Mexico loses against Croatia and Brazil loses with more goals against Cameroon. The model predicts that chance for that is less than 0.8%. Brazil is predicted to have 90% chance to win the group. Mexico has about 65% to at least draw and thereby qualify.

Group of Death is Dead

Spain is out. And it's tempting to use words like era and over, but here we don't do that. But I wonder if Monday's game against socceroos on Monday should be consider farewell to Xavi, one of the players with best CV. Netherlands and Chile will play a group final, and the loser will probably play Brazil in next round. Fortunately Brazil's group is decided after the Netherlands Chile game, so we shouldn't even hear any dudd speculation.

Round 1


The figure below shows the chances for the teams to win the tournament. Only the ten favourites are shown for clarity. For other teams see table below. Clearly Brazil is the big favourite with more than 40%. Spain started as 2nd favourite but has fell down to fourth and less than 7%. If they manage to climb up from this hole they are likely playing the hosts, which doesn't make their chances sky rocket. For the other Big Boys, Germany and Argentina, the chances haven't changed much since their results are in line with what we expect: that they win their groups and get nothing overly dramatic in round of "sweet sixteen".

Of the other team we notice Italy, the US, and  Ivory Coast, who have all boosted their chances quite significantly.

Country	Chance	Initial
Brazil	40.5	38.1
Germany	16.7	13.1
Argentina	10.1	10.9
Spain	6.7	16.5
Netherlands	6.5	3.3
Colombia	2.6	1.8
Italy	2.4	1.4
France	2.1	1.5
England	1.6	2.2
Portugal	1.5	2.3
Chile	1.5	1.1
United States	1.1	0.65
Switzerland	1.0	0.73
Belgium	0.91	0.77
Mexico	0.81	0.47
Russia	0.63	0.76
Uruguay	0.54	1.6
Ivory Coast	0.43	0.21
Ecuador	0.41	0.66
Croatia	0.31	0.26
Greece	0.29	0.33
Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.14	0.18
Costa Rica	0.13	0.064
Japan	0.078	0.11
Nigeria	0.075	0.11
Iran	0.058	0.053
South Korea	0.026	0.027
Ghana	0.011	0.034
Honduras	0.005	0.013
Algeria	0.003	0.005
Australia	0.003	0.016
Cameroon	0.001	0.002

Group H

Belgium has taken the lead in group H after an important comeback against Algeria. As we've seen in other groups a difference between a win and a draw can be worth 20 points in even groups, and Russia's equalizer might very well turn out to be deciding factor between Russia and South Korea. But the group is still very open and uncertain.

Group G

Group G has many interesting components including a major contender in Germany, the best player in the world last 12 months, possibly one of the most underestimated team in USA, and the black stars that so many seem to fall in love with. The group started with Germany who didn't wanna be worse than their orange neighbours, and continued the slaughter of Iberian football. With a stunning 4-0 goal difference and no one expect them to lose two matches, they are virtually through to knock-out stage (98%). Portugal's chances decreased from 59% to 36% and are in deep problems. They desperately need to win against the USA or they will rely on Germany winning against USA and still difficult to catch up 5 goals deficit. The American team bumped more than 20 points when miraculously managed to bounce back after having crawled most of second half and being floored by a late Ghanaian equalizer. The USA now has 60% chance to survive what their coach has called "worst of worst". Ghana is obviously in trouble and their chances are slim (6%). To start with they need a good result against Germany although in theory three points might suffice.

 

Group F

Argentina are the big favourites in this group and with their win against Bosnia & Heregovina their chances bumped up from 88% to 96%. For the other team not much changed since Bosnias loss was somewhat expected and Nigeria and Iran played the first goalless game in this tournament.

 

Group E

In what some people call group of warm balls France won as expected against Honduras. Nice to see goal line technology confirm the decision by referee to allow second goal. Switzerland won a close game against Ecuador; A very important goal in the last breath. 

 

Group C

Favourites Colombia won against Greece climbing up from 71% to 92%. In the key match between Ivory Coast and Japan, Ivory Coast came from behind and won 2-1. It gives Ivory Coast 68% to qualify and Japan are struggling with 16% (compared with 37% prior game).

Group D

Group D is wide open after Costa Rica upsetting Uruguay and Italy winning the rumble in the jungle against England. Italy is now the favourite in the group with 81% to go through. Costa Rica increased their chances from 20% to 53% while Uruguay fell from 60% to 23%. Uruguay and England up next where both are forced to win or they need to rely on results in other matches.

 

Group B

The possibly toughest group has started - and what a start. The big re-match between last cup's finalists ended with world champions floored, but remember that this is the first round, and not the knock-out round. They still have a 48% to survive the group compared with the 84% they entered the tournament with. A win against Chile in next game is more or less a necessity. The Dutch improved their chances from 62% to 93%. Likewise, Chile jumped up from 44% to 57% after their win against Australia. An interesting scenario is that Australia fly home pointless and that three contenders beat each other and finish on 6 points, in which case goal difference decide. And then having a 5-1 win in your trunk is not a disadvantage.       

The figure below shows the estimated chances for the team in Group A to survive the group stage. The estimations are based on 1,000,000 monte carlo simulations (see below for model) given the standing at each minute. As the results in Group A were quite expected, the favourites won, not very much changed. Brazil reached above 95.5% and it seems the key game will be between Croatia and Mexico in last round.

Model

The games are simulated using a simplistic model. The probability of scoring only depends on which teams are playing. As estimate of teams' strength we use Elo ratings, which can be translated to a probability of of winning against a given opponent. Only correction is that Brazil is given 82 bonus Elo points to reflect their home ground advantage. Having the winning probability, we select scoring rates (goals per hour) that yield this probability with the condition that the geometric mean of the two rates equals unity. That mean a typical game will have three goals or slightly more if the sides are uneven. This boils down to modeling the match as two Poisson processes.