in silico soccer: November 2016

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

CL: Match Day 5

Nineteen teams are still in the tournament. Five of eight groups are decided in terms of which two teams pass on to next round.

Group A

PSG played 2-2 against Arsenal making them the favorite to win the
group. PSG and Arsenal have same number of points and as PSG played
1-1 at home against Arsenal, PSG lead on more away goals. As long as
PSG take as many points against Razgrad as Arsenal do against Basel in
the last round, PSG win the group.

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-
100%	5	11	14-5	Arsenal
100%	5	11	11-5	Paris SG
0%	5	2	2-8	Basel
0%	5	2	4-13	Razgrad

Group B

It happened again in Istanbul. In 2005 in the Champions League final, Liverpool came back after a 3-0 deficit after first half and won the title. Yesterday Benfica had 3-0 lead after half an hour, but Besiktas came back with goals in 58th, 83rd, and 89th minute. This give Besiktas a fair chance to qualify for last 16, and Benfica missed the chance to qualify.

In the last round Benfica host Napoli and Kyiv host Besiktas.

Benfica qualify for last 16 if they win against Napoli or Besiktas
fail to win. Napoli qualify for last 16 if they draw (or win) against
Benfica or if Kyiv win against Besiktas. Besiktas qualify for the last
16 if they win against Kyiv, or if they draw and Benfica beat Napoli.

The winner of Benfica and Napoli win the group. If they draw,
Besiktas win the group if they win, and otherwise Napoli win the
group.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
78%	5	8	9-7	Napoli	qualified if Dynamo Kyiv win against Besiktas; otherwise 50%
83%	5	8	9-8	Benfica	qualified if Dynamo Kyiv win against Besiktas; otherwise 62%
38%	5	7	9-8	Besiktas	88% if they draw (or win) against Dynamo Kyiv; otherwise 0%
0%	5	2	2-6	Dynamo Kyiv

Group C

Barcelona secured group win and Man City secured second spot with a
draw against Gladbach.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-
100%	5	12	16-4	Barcelona
100%	5	8	11-9	Man City
0%	5	5	5-8	Gladbach
0%	5	2	4-15	Celtic

Group D

Bayern Munich lost against Rostov and thereby lost their chance to
win the group.

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	15	7-1	Atletico
100%	5	9	13-6	Bayern
0%	5	4	6-12	Rostov
0%	5	1	4-11	PSV

Winner \ Runner-up	Juve	Real	Pari	Napo	Benf	Arse	Dort	Sevi	Besi	Baye	FCK	Leve	Lyon	Port	Man	Total
Barcelon	1%		7%	5%	5%	10%	12%		5%	16%	2%	16%	3%	13%		100%
Leiceste	2%	4%	7%	5%	5%		13%	19%	5%	16%		16%	4%			100%
Atletico	1%		7%	4%	5%	9%	11%		4%		2%	15%	3%	13%	19%	100%
Monaco	1%	4%		4%	4%	8%	10%	15%	4%	14%	2%			12%	17%	100%
Juventus		3%	6%		3%	7%	9%		3%	12%	2%	12%		10%	15%	87%
Real Mad	1%		5%	3%	4%	7%			3%	11%	2%	11%	2%	10%	15%	79%
Paris SG	<1%	2%		2%	2%		6%	8%	2%	7%	1%	7%		6%	8%	55%
Napoli		1%	3%			4%	4%	7%		6%	1%	6%	1%	5%	7%	49%
Benfica	<1%	1%	3%			4%	5%	7%		6%	1%	6%	1%		8%	45%
Arsenal	<1%	1%		2%	2%		5%	7%	2%	6%	1%	6%	1%	5%		44%
Dortmund	<1%		1%	1%	1%	2%		3%	1%		<1%		<1%	2%	4%	20%
Sevilla			<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	1%		<1%	1%	<1%	1%		1%	2%	12%
Besiktas	<1%	<1%	<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	4%
Total	12%	20%	44%	28%	36%	55%	79%	69%	34%	100%	17%	100%	17%	82%	100%

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

CL: Match Day 5

Group E is dead. Monaco has won the group and Leverkusen is runner-up. Even if Leverkusen lose last match and Tottenham win, Tottenham cannot pass Leverkusen, as Leverkusen has a win and a draw against Tottenham. Tottenham need a point in the last match against Moscow to qualify for Europa League.

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-
100%	5	11	9-4	Monaco
100%	5	7	5-4	Leverkusen
0%	5	4	3-5	Tottenham
0%	5	3	4-8	CSKA Moscow

Group F is also dead and only questions i whether Dortmund or Real Madrid will win the group. They meet on the last match in Madrid, and our model gives Madrid 76% chance to win the match and thereby also the group.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-
100%	5	13	19-7	Dortmund
100%	5	11	14-8	Real Madrid
0%	5	3	5-7	Sporting
0%	5	1	8-24	Legia

Leicester secured the group win with a victory against Brugge. In Copenhagen, Porto and Kobenhavn played a scoreless match, keeping the second slot in the group wide open. Kobenhavn need to beat Brugge, while Porto do not win against Leicester.

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	13	7-1	Leicester
84%	5	8	4-3	Porto	qualified if Brugge draw (or win) against FC Kobenhavn; otherwise 42%
16%	5	6	5-2	FC Kobenhavn	58% if they win against Brugge; otherwise 0%
0%	5	0	2-12	Brugge

Juventus secured a last 16 spot with their win against. Sevilla will play Lyon in the last round. As Sevilla won 1-0 at home, Lyon need to win by at least 2 goals to pass Sevilla in the table.

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	11	9-2	Juventus
84%	5	10	7-3	Sevilla	qualified if they draw (or win) against Lyon; otherwise 54%
16%	5	7	5-3	Lyon	46% if they win against Sevilla; otherwise 0%
0%	5	0	0-13	Dinamo Zagreb

Winner \ Runner-up	Barc	Juve	Atle	Real	Arse	Napo	Pari	Benf	Dort	Baye	Besi	Sevi	Man	Glad	PSV	Rost	Dyna	Celt	Leve	Lyon	FCK	Port	Total
Leiceste	1%	1%	3%	5%		5%	9%	5%	12%	12%	4%	17%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	15%	3%			100%
Monaco	1%	1%	3%	4%	6%	5%		4%	10%	11%	3%	15%	16%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%			2%	12%	100%
Barcelon		1%			7%	5%	9%	5%	11%	12%	3%				<1%	<1%	<1%		15%	2%	2%	13%	92%
Juventus	1%		3%	3%	5%		7%	4%	9%	9%	3%		14%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	12%		2%	10%	89%
Atletico		1%			6%	4%	8%	4%	9%		3%		15%	<1%			<1%	<1%	12%	2%	2%	10%	81%
Real Mad		1%			5%	4%	7%	4%		9%	3%		13%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	11%	2%	1%	10%	76%
Arsenal	<1%	<1%	2%	2%		3%		2%	6%	7%	2%	9%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	8%	2%	1%	7%	58%
Napoli	<1%		1%	1%	2%		3%		4%	4%		6%	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	6%	1%	<1%	4%	46%
Paris SG	<1%	<1%	1%	1%		2%		1%	4%	4%	1%	5%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	5%		<1%	4%	41%
Benfica	<1%	<1%	1%	1%	2%		3%		4%	4%		6%	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	5%	1%	<1%		40%
Dortmund	<1%	<1%	1%		1%	1%	2%	1%			<1%	3%	4%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	3%	23%
Bayern	<1%	<1%		1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%			<1%	3%	3%				<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	2%	18%
Besiktas	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		1%		1%	1%		1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	1%	13%
Sevilla					<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	1%	<1%		1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%		<1%	1%	10%
Man City		<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%			<1%	<1%	<1%		1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	7%
Gladbach		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%			<1%	<1%								<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
PSV				<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%			<1%	<1%						<1%			<1%	<1%
Rostov							<1%	<1%	<1%				<1%						<1%				<1%
Total	7%	10%	18%	23%	41%	34%	58%	35%	76%	79%	27%	70%	90%	1%	1%	<1%	2%	<1%	100%	18%	16%	83%

Thursday, November 17, 2016

World Cup: CONCACAF

United States have had a tough start with matches against Mexico and Coasta Rica and two losses. According to our model their chance to qualify has reduced from 84% to 71%. The match in March against Panama will be important as Costa Rica and Mexico likely will snatch the first two slots.

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win
83%	67%	53%	Panama	-	United States	58%	71%	84%

Group	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Costa Rica	2	+6	6	19.3	99%	97.4%
Mexico	2	+1	4	21.6	99%	99%
Panama	2	+1	4	14.1	86.2%	67.5%
--------------------
Honduras	2	+1	3	8.2	17.3%	8.0%
========
Trinidad and T	2	-4	0	7.3	13.6%	6.9%
United States	2	-5	0	13.8	83.9%	71.1%

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

World Cup: South America

Argentina won against Colombia giving them some safe space. Accoring to our model they have 95% chance to qualify for the world cup, which makes them favorites together with Brazil (99.9%) and Uruguay (97%).

In next round we'll have rematch of this year's Copa America final: Argentina vs Chile. Besides that we'll have a group final in Uruguay vs Brazil, and a very important match between Paraguay vs Ecuador, which probably is Paraguay's last chance, while if Ecuador win they are really becoming a contender.

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win
2.6%	0.5%	0.13%	Paraguay	-	Ecuador	25.9%	35%	54%

Group	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Brazil	12	+18	27	37.6	99.9%	99.9%
Uruguay	12	+13	23	32.6	97.7%	96.9%
Ecuador	12	+6	20	26.9	42.4%	40.0%
Argentina	12	+2	19	32.3	95.5%	95.3%
--------------------
Chile	12	+1	18	29.9	85.9%	85.2%
========
Colombia	12	0	18	29.3	76.6%	75.0%
Paraguay	12	-6	15	20.5	1.3%	1.1%
Peru	12	-6	11	19.3	0.71%	0.64%
Bolivia	12	-13	11	13.3	0.00%	0.00%
Venezuela	12	-15	5	9.5	-

World Cup: Asia

South Korea won the important match against Uzbekistan making them climb up to second spot in the table. In March Syria will host Uzbekistan in an important match. If Uzbekistan win that match, the group will split into a upper and lower half.

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 4	Playoff	World Cup
Iran	5	+4	11	20.1	99%	95.0%	91.9%
South Korea	5	+2	10	19.5	98.0%	94.2%	90.5%
--------------------
Uzbekistan	5	+2	9	16.0	84.7%	61.0%	45.3%
========
Syria	5	-1	5	10.2	9.2%	4.0%	2.0%
Qatar	5	-3	4	9.6	7.3%	3.5%	1.8%
China	5	-4	2	7.4	2.0%	0.95%	0.46%

In group B Japan beat Saudi Arabia while Australia only drew in Bangkok. In March we will see a number of interesting matches here. Australia will play UAE in Sydney. Before that UAE will host Japan, and two losses there would be difficult to repair.

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 4	Playoff	World Cup
Saudi Arabia	5	+4	10	15.9	62.6%	38.9%	31.7%
Japan	5	+3	10	19.7	94.1%	89.0%	85.9%
--------------------
Australia	5	+3	9	18.4	90.2%	81.3%	76.4%
========
United Arab	5	+1	9	15.3	50.4%	31.2%	24.6%
Iraq	5	-2	3	8.4	2.5%	0.94%	0.57%
Thailand	5	-9	1	5.9	0.13%	0.03%	0.02%

Important Upcoming Matches

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
86%	68%	47%	Australia	-	United Arab Emirates	15.3%	30%	56%	123.636
45%	22.9%	13.0%	United Arab Emirates	-	Japan	71%	85%	95%	109.118
5.0%	1.1%	0.22%	Syria	-	Uzbekistan	31.5%	42%	58%	51.8208
41.4%	23%	16.0%	Saudi Arabia	-	Iraq	0.03%	0.3%	2.1%	50.0318

World Cup: Oceania

New Zealand started their campaign with a win and a draw against New Caledonia. In next round they will play a double match against Fiji and another four point would secure a spot in the playoff final.

In group B Tahiti and Solomon Island started with a win each. In next round PNG play double match against Tahiti and the group is still wide-open.

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Final	Playoff	World Cup
New Zealand	2	+2	4	8.4	88.7%	80.6%	5.9%
========
New Caledonia	2	-2	1	4.1	3.0%	2.0%	0.03%
Fiji	0	0	0	3.7	8.3%	5.0%	0.04%

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Final	Playoff	World Cup
Tahiti	2	0	3	6.2	39.2%	6.3%	0.05%
========
Solomon Island	2	0	3	5.7	26.2%	2.5%	0.01%
Papua New Guin	0	0	0	5.1	34.6%	3.6%	0.01%

Sunday, November 13, 2016

World Cup: Europe

Croatia (80%) won against Iceland (24) with 2-0. In another key match Wales (22%) and Serbia (38%) drew. Austria (7%) lost an important match against Ireland (69%). In Bucharest, Poland (91%) won an easy victory against Romainia (13%).

Next round is played in end of March with some interesting matches

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win
83%	66%	50%	Ireland	-	Wales	10.8%	21.1%	42%
89%	73%	57%	Croatia	-	Ukraine	10.6%	20%	40%
20.7%	9.0%	4.0%	Romania	-	Denmark	10.9%	19.2%	34%
88%	76%	58%	Portugal	-	Hungary	1.5%	5.8%	18%

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
France	4	+5	10	24.4	98.4%	95.4%
--------------------
Netherlands	4	+4	7	19.9	77.2%	58.6%
========
Sweden	4	+3	7	16.5	17.5%	8.5%
Bulgaria	4	-4	6	12.0	1.4%	0.38%
Belarus	4	-4	2	8.6	0.14%	0.03%
Luxembourg	4	-4	1	2.7	-

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Switzerland	4	+6	12	24.8	97.1%	75.9%
--------------------
Portugal	4	+13	9	23.7	94.8%	82.7%
========
Hungary	4	+5	7	17.2	7.9%	3.9%
Faroe Islands	4	-6	4	9.7	<0.01%	<0.01%
Latvia	4	-6	3	9.6	0.02%	<0.01%
Andorra	4	-12	0	1.6

Group C	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Germany	4	+16	12	27.4	99.9%	99.9%
--------------------
Northern Irela	4	+6	7	16.5	36.2%	9.7%
========
Azerbaijan	4	-2	7	12.2	1.1%	0.07%
Czechia	4	-2	5	16.3	27.1%	10.0%
Norway	4	-2	3	12.6	3.8%	1.00%
San Marino	4	-16	0	0.5

Group D	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Ireland	4	+4	10	20.9	82.3%	69.4%
--------------------
Serbia	4	+4	8	18.5	59.1%	38.2%
========
Wales	4	+4	6	16.4	33.6%	22.4%
Austria	4	-1	4	14.6	12.9%	6.9%
Georgia	4	-2	2	7.0	0.13%	0.03%
Moldova	4	-9	1	4.2	<0.01%	<0.01%

Group E	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Poland	4	+5	10	22.4	96.5%	91.4%
--------------------
Montenegro	4	+5	7	13.8	15.7%	5.2%
========
Denmark	4	+2	6	15.9	37.8%	19.9%
Romania	4	+2	5	14.8	27.8%	12.9%
Armenia	4	-6	3	9.7	0.95%	0.21%
Kazakhstan	4	-8	2	6.7	0.06%	0.01%

Group F	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
England	4	+6	10	24.3	99%	96.7%
--------------------
Slovenia	4	+2	8	16.1	21.6%	6.3%
========
Slovakia	4	+5	6	17.4	50.9%	24.8%
Lithuania	4	-2	5	9.6	0.29%	0.05%
Scotland	4	-2	4	14.6	13.4%	5.4%
Malta	4	-9	0	2.1

Group G	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Spain	4	+14	10	24.4	97.7%	87.6%
--------------------
Italy	4	+7	10	24.1	98.2%	83.9%
========
Israel	4	+3	9	16.0	3.3%	1.0%
Albania	4	-2	6	13.1	0.59%	0.21%
Macedonia	4	-7	0	6.5	<0.01%	<0.01%
Liechtenstein	4	-15	0	2.4

Group H	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Belgium	4	+20	12	25.9	98.4%	95.4%
--------------------
Greece	4	+7	10	18.6	30.4%	10.0%
========
Bosnia and Her	4	+3	7	20.2	68.6%	33.8%
Cyprus	4	-5	3	9.4	0.09%	0.01%
Estonia	4	-10	3	10.2	0.20%	0.02%
Gibraltar	4	-15	0	1.8	<0.01%	<0.01%

Group I	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Croatia	4	+9	10	21.2	87.4%	79.9%
--------------------
Ukraine	4	+4	8	16.2	29.1%	17.9%
========
Iceland	4	+1	7	17.2	39.9%	23.7%
Turkey	4	0	5	16.3	31.5%	20.7%
Finland	4	-3	1	6.8	0.10%	0.02%
Kosovo	4	-11	1	4.6	0.01%	<0.01%

World Cup: Africa

Egypt (79% won against Ghana (9%) making them favorites in group E. Also in group B we had a group final in which Nigeria (71%) beat Algeria (13%). Nextround will not be played until 28 August, when we have the following interesting matches:

Important Matches

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win
89%	66%	42%	Nigeria	-	Cameroon	2.5%	15.0%	40%
70%	39%	16.2%	Tunisia	-	Democratic Republic of Congo	28.0%	58%	82%
27.1%	9.2%	2.0%	Uganda	-	Egypt	59%	80%	94%
57.9%	35%	17%	Senegal	-	Burkina Faso	6.0%	17%	37%
3.5%	0.7%	0.05%	Cape Verde	-	South Africa	23.3%	33%	55%

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Democratic Rep	2	+5	6	11.6	48.7%
========
Tunisia	2	+3	6	12.0	49.3%
Guinea	2	-3	0	5.7	1.4%
Libya	2	-5	0	4.8	0.54%

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Nigeria	2	+3	6	12.0	70.6%
========
Cameroon	2	0	2	7.9	15.5%
Zambia	2	-1	1	4.3	1.3%
Algeria	2	-2	1	8.0	12.6%

Group C	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Ivory Coast	2	+2	4	12.2	81.8%
========
Morocco	2	0	2	7.6	10.1%
Gabon	2	0	2	5.3	3.0%
Mali	2	-2	1	6.3	5.1%

Group D	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Burkina Faso	2	+2	4	7.8	11.3%
========
South Africa	2	+1	4	10.3	37.7%
Senegal	2	+1	3	10.7	49.4%
Cape Verde	2	-4	0	4.5	1.6%

Group E	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	World Cup
Egypt	2	+3	6	13.0	78.8%
========
Uganda	2	+1	4	8.4	12.0%
Ghana	2	-2	1	8.1	8.7%
Congo	2	-2	0	3.8	0.47%

Thursday, November 10, 2016

World Cup: South America

Brazil won the Clash of Giants against Argentina with a stunning 3-0. The other big clash finished goalless between Colombia and Chile. Uruguay took an important victory against Ecuador and now have 98% chance to qualify according to the model. Chile and Argentina, the finalist of the this year's Copa America, are now in somewhat of a problematic position.

Group	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Brazil	11	+17	24	36.1	99%	99%
Uruguay	11	+15	23	33.3	98.3%	97.9%
Colombia	11	+3	18	30.0	84.3%	83.2%
Ecuador	11	+3	17	26.1	37.1%	35.2%
--------------------
Argentina	11	-1	16	31.4	92.4%	92.3%
========
Chile	11	-1	15	29.1	80.2%	79.5%
Paraguay	11	-5	15	22.1	5.1%	4.4%
Peru	11	-5	11	20.6	2.8%	2.6%
Bolivia	11	-14	8	11.5	<0.01%	<0.01%
Venezuela	11	-12	5	10.1

Thursday, November 3, 2016

CL: Match Day 4

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
85%	4	8	7-3	Monaco	qualified if they draw (or win) against Tottenham; otherwise 57%
79%	4	6	4-3	Leverkusen	qualified if they win against Monaco; otherwise 54%
31%	4	4	2-3	Tottenham	70% if they win against Monaco; otherwise 9.2%
5%	4	2	3-7	CSKA Moscow	13% if they draw (or win) against Tottenham; otherwise 0%

Monaco won against Moscow. In London Tottenham hosted Leverkusen and the Germans took a very important win giving them 80% chance while Tottenham only have 30% chance to survive the group.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	10	11-3	Dortmund
98%	4	8	12-7	Real Madrid	qualified if they draw (or win) against Sporting; otherwise 89%
2%	4	3	4-5	Sporting	11% if they win against Real Madrid; otherwise 0%
0%	4	1	4-16	Legia

Dortmund won against Sporting, which means they have secured qualification. Real Madrid failed to beat Legia, but can secure qualification with a draw against Sporting in next match.

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.7%	4	10	5-0	Leicester	qualified if they draw (or win) against Brugge; otherwise 98%
71%	4	7	4-3	Porto	94% if they draw (or win) against FC Kobenhavn; otherwise 31%
29%	4	5	5-2	FC Kobenhavn	70% if they win against Porto; otherwise 6%
0%	4	0	1-10	Brugge

Leicester failed to win in Copenhagen and secure qualification. Porto
won against Brugge giving the some advantage against Kobenhavn.

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
96%	4	10	6-0	Sevilla	qualified if they draw (or win) against Lyon; otherwise 90%
98.8%	4	8	6-1	Juventus	qualified if they win against Dinamo Zagreb; otherwise 94%
5%	4	4	4-3	Lyon	14% if they win against Sevilla; otherwise 0%
0%	4	0	0-12	Dinamo Zagreb

Lyon grabbed their last chance with a late (85th) goal against
Juventus. Sevilla only need one more point to secure a spot in round
of last 16, while Juventus need a win to be certain.

Winner \ Runner-up	Barc	Leic	Atle	Sevi	Arse	Mona	Real	Dort	Benf	Napo	Pari	Juve	Leve	Baye	Port	Besi	Tott	Man	FCK	Glad	PSV	Rost	Dyna	CSKA	Spor	Lyon	Celt	Total
Barcelon		2%			7%	4%		8%	4%	5%	9%	8%	6%	12%	8%	3%	3%		4%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		93%
Leiceste	1%		3%	7%		4%	8%	8%	4%	5%	7%	8%	6%	11%		3%				<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	82%
Atletico		2%			5%	3%		6%	3%	4%	7%	7%	5%		6%	3%	3%	14%	3%	<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	79%
Sevilla		1%			4%	2%		5%	2%	3%	5%		4%	7%	5%	2%	2%	10%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	60%
Arsenal	<1%		2%	4%		2%	5%	5%	2%	3%		5%	4%	7%	5%	2%			2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	58%
Monaco	<1%	1%	2%	4%	3%		4%	4%	2%	3%		5%		6%	4%	1%		9%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%		<1%	56%
Real Mad		1%			4%	2%			2%	3%	5%	4%	3%	6%	4%	2%	2%	9%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	56%
Dortmund	<1%	1%	2%	3%	3%	2%			2%	2%	4%	3%			3%	1%	1%	8%	1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	43%
Benfica	<1%	1%	1%	2%	2%	1%	3%	3%			3%	3%	2%	5%			1%	6%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%		<1%	<1%	43%
Napoli	<1%	<1%	1%	2%	2%	1%	3%	3%			3%		2%	4%	3%		1%	6%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	42%
Paris SG	<1%	1%	1%	2%			3%	3%	1%	2%		3%	2%	4%	2%	1%	1%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	41%
Juventus	<1%	<1%	1%		2%	1%	3%	2%	1%		3%		2%	4%	3%	1%	1%	6%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	39%
Leverkus	<1%	1%	1%	2%	2%		3%		1%	2%	3%	3%			3%	1%		6%	1%		<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	36%
Bayern	<1%	<1%		1%	1%	1%	1%		<1%	1%	1%	1%			1%	<1%	<1%	3%	<1%				<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	20%
Porto	<1%		<1%	1%	1%	<1%	1%	1%		<1%	1%	1%	1%	1%		<1%	<1%	2%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	16%
Besiktas	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	1%			1%	1%	<1%	1%	<1%		<1%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	14%
Tottenha	<1%		<1%	<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	7%
Man City			<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%			<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		6%
FC Koben	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%
Gladbach		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%					<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%
PSV		<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%					<1%		<1%		<1%			<1%	<1%									<1%
Rostov				<1%									<1%															<1%
Total	6%	16%	20%	35%	41%	30%	41%	56%	32%	37%	58%	59%	43%	77%	53%	26%	20%	91%	29%	1%	1%	<1%	2%	6%	2%	5%	<1%

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

CL: Matchday 4

Arsenal turned around an early 2-0 deficit against Bulgaria, which
secured a spot in last 16. PSG also secured a spot and now this group
is only about who will win the group.

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	10	12-3	Arsenal
100%	4	10	9-3	Paris SG
0%	4	1	2-8	Basel
0%	4	1	4-13	Razgrad

In Istanbul Besiktas scored a late (78th) and important 1-0 goal
against Napoli, but Napoli responded with an equally important equalizer a
few minutes later to stay ahead of Besiktas. Benfica did their job and this is now a three-horse-race.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
81%	4	7	9-7	Napoli	97% if they draw (or win) against Benfica; otherwise 65%
76%	4	7	6-5	Benfica	94% if they draw (or win) against Besiktas; otherwise 40%
40%	4	6	6-5	Besiktas	84% if they win against Benfica; otherwise 18%
3%	4	1	2-6	Dynamo Kyiv	14% if they win against Napoli; otherwise 0%

Barcelona had the opportunity to secure a spot in last 16 against Man
City, but Man City came back after an early Messi goal and won
3-1. Gladbach failed to win againt Celtic, and most likely lost their
chance (P = 1%) to finish top 2 in this group.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.8%	4	9	14-4	Barcelona	qualified if they draw (or win) against Gladbach; otherwise 97%
98.4%	4	7	10-8	Man City	99.86% if they win against Celtic; otherwise 93%
1%	4	4	4-7	Gladbach	6% if they draw (or win) against Barcelona; otherwise 0.1%
0.3%	4	2	4-13	Celtic	4% if they win against Man City; otherwise 0%

Both Bayern and Atletico won as expected and will most likely take the
top 2 spots.

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.92%	3	9	3-0	Atletico
98.2%	3	6	9-2	Bayern	99.7% if they draw (or win) against PSV; otherwise 92%
1%	3	1	3-7	PSV	6% if they win against Bayern; otherwise 0.06%
0.6%	3	1	2-8	Rostov	3% if they win against Bayern; otherwise 0.03%

Possible Last 16 match-ups:

Winner \ Runner-up

Barc

Leic

Atle

Real

Arse

Juve

Sevi

Napo

Benf

Mona

Pari

Tott

Dort

Baye

Leve

Besi

Port

Man

CSKA

FC K

Lyon

Spor

Glad

PSV

Dina

Rost

Brug

Legi

Dyna

Celt

Total

Barcelon

11%

<1%

92%

Leiceste

10%

11%

12%

<1%

85%

Atletico

15%

<1%

81%

Real Mad

14%

<1%

79%

Arsenal

<1%

59%

Juventus

<1%

51%

Sevilla

<1%

47%

Napoli

<1%

43%

Benfica

<1%

42%

Monaco

<1%

41%

Paris SG

<1%

40%

Tottenha

<1%

37%

Dortmund

<1%

20%

Bayern

<1%

18%

Leverkus

<1%

14%

Besiktas

<1%

13%

Porto

<1%

Man City

<1%

CSKA Mos

<1%

FC Koben

<1%

Lyon

<1%

Sporting

<1%

Gladbach

<1%

PSV

<1%

Dinamo Z

<1%

Rostov

<1%

Brugge

<1%

Legia

<1%