PL: Predictions after week 36

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	96.6	95-23	74.2	100
Liverpool	95.5	88-21	25.8	100
Tottenham	74.1	69-37	0	96.9
Chelsea	71.9	64-40	0	72.5
Arsenal	70.1	73-51	0	25.3
Man United	69.4	68-52	0	5.36

Man City
Point	Probability	Chance
98	52.9	100
96	23.3	51.5
95	16.9	49.6
94	2.39	26.2
93	3.35	8.09
92	1.14	5.52

We predict Man City have 53% chance winning the last two matches and thereby clinching the title. If they lose two or three points they have ca 50% chance.

Liverpool
Point	Probability	Chance
97	48.6	47.2
95	24	8.12
94	19.5	4.57
93	2.61	1.04

We predict Liverpool have ca 50% to win the last two matches and if they do, they have 47% to win the title.

Teams 3-6 behave like cyclists in aTour de France before the sprint. No one want to take the head wind and rather stay behind.

Tottenham
Point	Probability	Chance
76	38.9	100
74	25	100
73	23.2	100
72	3.68	99.8
71	6.5	78
70	2.78	40.7

Tottenham need two more points to virtually clinch top 4.

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
74	34.4	100
72	24.8	79.5
71	26.3	62.5
70	3.82	24.7
69	7.37	11.7
68	3.3	2.88

Chelsea clinch top 4 if they win last two matches and finish on 74 points. Even finishing on 71 points is likely sufficient to finish top 4.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
72	37.5	59.8
70	24.9	7.02
69	24	4.4

Arsenal need to win two last matches (36%) to have a reasonable chance (59%).

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
71	46.4	11.3

United can reach 71 points if they win both last matches (46%). That will likely not be sufficient as Arsenal have 38% to finish with more points and Chelsea have 59%.

PL: Predictions after week 35

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	95.9	96-24	65.2	100
Liverpool	95.2	87-22	34.8	100
Tottenham	76.4	71-38	0	98.2
Chelsea	72.1	64-41	0	47.1
Arsenal	71.7	74-49	0	42.4
Man United	70	69-53	0	12.4

Man City
Point	Probability	Chance
98	35.8	100
96	25.4	58.5
95	18.9	58.1
94	5.87	33.3
93	8.58	14.2
92	3.6	9.56

Man City win if they win remaining matches (35.8%).

Liverpool
Point	Probability	Chance
97	41.5	64.3
95	25.3	20.1
94	19	14
93	4.6	5.42
92	6.37	1.91

Liverpool have slightly easier schedule with two home matches and predicted chance of 41.5% to win all of them.

The top 4 race has crystallized into a two-horse race between Chelsea and Arsenal.

Tottenham
Point	Probability	Chance
79	27.7	100
77	24.3	100
76	21.2	100
75	6.78	99.7
74	11.5	98.2
73	5.34	94.6
72	1.53	70
71	1.25	53.3

Tottenham need another 6 points (73%) to be guaranteed to finish top 4. And even if they only take 3 points and finish on 73 they have >90% chance.

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
76	10.4	100
74	15.6	84.4
73	23.9	62.2
72	7.07	43.2
71	19.8	23.6
70	14.1	5.6
69	3.5	2.16

If Chelsea win remaining three matches (10%), they clinch top 4. The key match is against Man Unite din the next round.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
75	16.9	91.8
73	20.2	73.8
72	22.4	36.4
71	7.69	29.1
70	16.6	8.24
69	9.68	1.97

Arsenal have 42% to reach top 4. They need to take 7 more points to have a >50% chance. The most likely outcome is 6 points and finish on 72p, one point behind Chelsea.

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
73	21.3	46.2
71	22.1	10.1
70	23.4	1.21

United need to win remaining matches (21.3) to have a fair chance (46%).

PL: Tottenham probably clinch top 4

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	95.2	87-22	55.1	100
Man City	94.4	96-26	44.9	100
Tottenham	76.4	71-38	0	95.6
Arsenal	73.4	75-47	0	59.9
Chelsea	72.1	64-41	0	27.1
Man United	71.2	70-52	0	17.4

Tottenham won with a late winner against Brighton and now have a 95.6% chance to reach CL.

Tottenham
Point	Probability	Chance
79	27.8	100
77	24.3	100
76	21.2	100
75	6.8	95.4
74	11.5	92.7
73	5.33	76.3
72	1.53	47
71	1.25	30.3

Tottenham clinch top 4 if they finish with at least 76p (73%) and also 75 or 74 are likely (>90%) to suffice.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
78	8.57	100
76	14.2	99.6
75	15.9	86.4
74	8.52	84.3
73	19	57.1
72	12.5	29.5
71	7.21	19
70	7.92	4.81
69	3.67	1.16

If Arsenal finish on 73p they have a good chance (>50%).

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
76	10.4	84.1
74	15.7	56.6
73	23.7	27.4
72	7.1	19.9
71	19.9	6.81
70	14.1	1.21

Chelsea probably need to take 74p to finish top 4.  

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
76	6.88	83.3
74	12.2	52.4
73	16.8	21.1
72	7.63	12.1
71	19.9	3.5

Man United probably need to take 74p to finish top 4.

PL: Liverpool and Man City both won

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	95.2	87-22	55.1	100
Man City	94.4	96-26	44.9	100
Tottenham	75.9	73-38	0	92.1
Arsenal	73.4	75-47	0	60.8
Chelsea	72.1	64-41	0	28.6
Man United	71.2	70-52	0	18.4

Liverpool
Point	Probability	Chance
97	41.6	84.2
95	25.3	45.2
94	18.9	36.3
93	4.61	19.7
92	6.34	10.6
91	2.38	5.97

Liverpool have three matches left and the most likely outcome (42%) is that they win all matches.

Man City
Point	Probability	Chance
98	15.7	100
96	19.7	58.6
95	19.8	57.7
94	8.66	32.8
93	16.5	14.2
92	9.07	9.58
91	4.36	3.21

Man City have four matches left, including a derby against United. We predict they have 16% chance to win all matches, which would give them the title, and it's more likely that they take 15 (19.8%) or 16 (19.7%) points.

In the race for CL tickets all teams lost points. Tottenham only lost 0.8 points in expected points as their loss versus Man City was not unexpected. Most surprising (-2.3p) was Arsenal loss against Palace, followed by Chelsea's draw against Burnley (-1.4).

Tottenham
Point	Probability	Chance
79	21.3	100
77	22.6	100
76	18.8	100
75	8.67	95.7
74	14.1	93.2
73	7.01	77.2
72	3.35	47.4
71	2.75	32

Tottenham reach at least 76p in 62.7% of the simulations, which would clinch a spot in CL.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
78	8.6	100
76	14.2	99.7
75	15.8	87.7
74	8.56	85.1
73	18.9	59
72	12.5	31.1
71	7.2	19.9
70	7.98	5.14
69	3.68	1.25

Most common outcome for Arsenal is 73p, which would give them 59% to reach CL. 76p would virtually clinch the a CL spot.

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
76	10.4	86.2
74	15.6	59.7
73	23.8	30
72	7.12	21.5
71	19.9	7.4
70	14.1	1.41

Most common outcome in simulations for Chelsea is 73p (24%) and would probably not suffice for a CL spot.

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
76	6.87	85.7
74	12.3	55.1
73	16.7	23.3
72	7.66	13.4
71	20	3.85

Most common outcome for United is only 71p, in other words, two wins, a draw and a loss. This is partly due to the coming derby against City where City a big favorites.

CL: Predictions Final Four

Here are how the chances have evolved during the knockout-stage.

Team	Final	Champ
Barcelona	62%	42%
Tottenham	70%	28%
Liverpool	38%	22%
Ajax	30%	8%

Barcelona are favourites (62%) to win the semifinal against Liverpool and Tottenham are favourites (70%) to win the semifinal against Ajax.

CL: Quarterfinals Leg 2 - Match Day 2

Team	Semi	Final	Champ
Barcelona	100%	64%	40%
Liverpool	92%	35%	19%
Tottenham	60%	42%	17%
Man City	40%	32%	16%
Ajax	100%	26%	7%
Porto	8%	2%	<1%

Second favorites when the day started, Juventus, crashed out against Ajax who will no play the winner of Man City and Tottenham. Barcelona favorites followed by the three English teams.

PL: Arsenal beat Watford

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	94.4	87-23	57.2	100
Man City	93.4	97-27	42.8	100
Tottenham	76.7	74-39	0	83.8
Arsenal	75.7	76-45	0	68.9
Chelsea	73.5	65-40	0	25.9
Man United	72.7	72-48	0	21.5

Tottenham
Point	Probability	Chance
82	4.4	100
80	9.27	100
79	16.3	100
78	6.58	99.4
77	20.1	96.5
76	14.2	92.2
75	8.69	76.5
74	10.2	56.6
73	4.97	37.2
72	2.6	17.1
71	1.83	6.95

The most likely outcome (20%) for Tottenham is a loss against City, three wins and a draw, which would give them 77p and 96.5% to finish top4.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
81	6.02	100
79	11.4	99.8
78	12.2	98.6
77	8.4	93.8
76	17.8	86.1
75	12.3	67.3
74	9.4	46.7
73	10.2	27.9
72	5.39	12
71	3.25	4.62
70	2.32	1.35

The most likely outcome (18%) for Arsenal is 76p  via 3 wins a draw and a loss, which would give them 86%.

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
78	7.77	89.4
76	13.4	59.8
75	18.9	36.2
74	7.64	24.8
73	20	8.68
72	14	2.88
71	6.33	1

Chelsea have a visit to Old Trafford left. They need at least a 3-win 1-draw finish to have more than 50% chance.

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
79	2.88	95.4
77	6.8	79.8
76	9.38	59.7
75	6.18	41.7
74	16.6	20.8
73	13.6	8.96
72	10.4	3.07

United have a difficult match at home against Chelsea. They probably need a at least a draw there .

PL: Liverpool won against Chelsea

Liverpool lead by two points but have one match more played, so if both teams win all remaining matches, City win by one point. City have, however, a tougher schedule with matches (home) against both Spurs and United. In our simulations they therefore finish on average one point behind Liverpool.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	94.4	87-23	56.5	100
Man City	93.4	97-27	43.5	100
Tottenham	76.7	74-39	0	87
Arsenal	74.4	76-46	0	54.8
Chelsea	73.5	65-40	0	32.3
Man United	72.7	72-48	0	25.9

Here are the probabilities that Liverpool finish on different points and the chance that they win the league.

Liverpool

Point	Probability	Chance
97	27.5	91.6
95	25.1	60.9
94	18.9	51.9
93	7.93	34.2
92	11.1	23.4
91	4.99	13
90	2.01	6.97
89	1.62	3.7

so there are a estimatred 27.5% probability that Liverpool win all remaining matches and if they do they have a 91.6% chance to finish first.

Man City

Point	Probability	Chance
98	9	100
96	14.9	72.7
95	15.1	71.8
94	9.53	43.7
93	17.4	30.1
92	11.1	20.2
91	8.01	9.86
90	7.74	4.52
88	1.87	1.07

Here are the similar tables for the four teams fighting about the two remaining CL tickets.


Tottenham

Point	Probability	Chance
82	4.1	100
80	9.01	100
79	16.8	99.9
78	6.73	99.4
77	19.7	97.9
76	14.3	94.6
75	9.29	82.8
74	10.6	65.9
73	4.59	49.9
72	2.37	20.3
71	1.82	12.6

Most likely outcome for Spurs is to finish on 77 points, and that will with 98% certainty suffice for a CL ticket.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
81	2.97	100
79	7.19	99.7
78	7.97	99.2
77	6.87	93.6
76	14.4	85.2
75	10.8	71.2
74	11.6	46.3
73	12	28.4
72	8.46	13.1
71	6.46	6.04
70	5.3	1.7

Most likely outcome for Arsenal is to finish on 76 points which will suffice for a CL ticket with 85% certainty.

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
78	8.25	93
76	13.2	70.2
75	17.6	47.1
74	7.96	34.5
73	20.6	15.7
72	13.5	6.91
71	6.9	2.61

Most likely outcome for Chelsea is to finish on 75 points and that will give them a 47% chance to reach CL.

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
79	2.98	98
77	6.88	85.2
76	8.78	67.4
75	5.86	53.9
74	16.9	29.4
73	13.7	14.5
72	10.5	6.69
71	13.9	2.3

Most likely outcome for United is to finish on 74 points and that will give them a 29% chance to reach CL.

CL: Predictions after 1st leg

Team	Semi	Final	Champ
Barcelona	88%	56%	33%
Liverpool	92%	44%	20%
Juventus	77%	40%	20%
Man City	40%	22%	12%
Tottenham	60%	26%	11%
Ajax	23%	6%	2%
Man United	12%	4%	2%
Porto	8%	2%	<1%

City vs Tottenham is the most uncertain of the quarterfinals with 60% chance for Spurs. Figure below shows how the teams' chances have evolved over time. Barcelona went from 77% against Man United to 88% with a 1-0 away win. Liverpool almost killed their match against Porto with 2-0 at home and went from 69% to 92%. Juventus and Ajax stayed at 77% and 23%, respectively, after 1-1 draw in Amsterdam.

CL: Liverpool and Tottenham won first leg

Liverpool won with 2-0 against Porto and and now have a 92% (+23%) chance to reach seminals.

Tottenham won with a late goal aginst Man City and are now favourites (60%) to reach semifinals (37% before match)

Team	Semi	Final	Champion
Barcelona	77%	48%	29%
Liverpool	92%	45%	21%
Juventus	77%	40%	20%
Man City	40%	23%	12%
Tottenham	60%	27%	12%
Man United	23%	8%	3%
Ajax	23%	6%	2%
Porto	8%	2%	<1%

PL: Chelsea won against West Ham

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	93.3	87-24	54	100
Man City	92.5	96-27	46	100
Tottenham	76.3	73-40	0	80.8
Arsenal	74.4	76-46	0	54.2
Chelsea	74.3	66-40	0	45.7
Man United	71.9	72-49	0	19.3

Chelsea won and are now up on 46% to reach CL. If they take 9 (of 15) points, they have >50%.

Tottenham have >90%, if they take 12 (of 18) points.

Arsenal have >90%, if they take 14 (of 18) points.

Man United have >50%, if they take 15 (of 18) points.

PL: Arsenal lost against Everton

Expected Outcome

Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	93.3	87-24	54.1	100
Man City	92.5	96-27	45.9	100
Tottenham	76.3	73-40	0	82.9
Arsenal	74.4	76-46	0	57.9
Chelsea	73.5	66-41	0	38.1
Man United	71.9	72-49	0	21.1

Tottenham have City (away) and Everton (home) left to play. If they win the other matches, i.e. take 12 of 18 points they have >90% to reach PL.

If Arsenal take 14 (of 18 points), they have >90% chance to reach CL.


If Chelsea take 12 (of 18 points), they have >50% chance to reach CL.

If Man United take 14 (of 18 points), they have >50% chance to reach CL.

PL: Tottneham won first match at new home

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	92.5	96-27	55.2	100
Liverpool	92.4	86-24	44.8	100
Tottenham	76.3	73-40	0	79.7
Arsenal	75.9	78-47	0	71.1
Chelsea	73.5	66-41	0	32.1
Man United	71.9	72-49	0	17.2

City lead with one point in the title race but only 0.1 points in expected points. They have a slightly tougher schedule than Liverpool with both a Manchester derby away and Tottenham visiting.

Tottenham close to 80% chance to reach CL now. They have >90% of they take 13 points in the remaining six matches.

Arsenal have >90% if they take 14 points in the remaining seven matches.

Chelsea have  >50% if they take 13 points in the remaining six matches.

Man United have >50% if they take 15 points in the remaining six matches.

PL: United lost against the Wolves

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	92.4	86-24	47.5	100
Man City	92.2	97-27	52.5	100
Arsenal	75.9	78-47	0	74.4
Tottenham	75.7	74-41	0	76.3
Chelsea	72.9	66-42	0	29.4
Man United	71.9	72-49	0	20

United lost and their chances decreased to 20% (-14.5%). They need to take 15 points in the remaining six matches to have more than 50% chance.

Chelsea have more than 50% chance, if they take 16 (of 21) more points.

Tottenham have more than 90% chance, if they take 15 (of 21) more points.

Arsenal have more than 90% chance, if they take 14 (of 21) more points.

PL: Gunners won against the Magpies

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	92.4	86-24	47.5	100
Man City	92.2	97-27	52.5	100
Arsenal	75.9	78-47	0	69.1
Tottenham	75.8	74-41	0	70.6
Man United	73.6	73-49	0	34.5
Chelsea	72.9	66-42	0	25.8

Arsenal have more than 90% chance, if they take 14 (of 21) more points

Tottenham have more than 90% chance, if they take 16 (of 21) more points

Man United have more than 50% chance, if they take 15 (of 21) more points

Chelsea have more than 50% chance, if they take 16 (of 21) more points